So, instead of pointing to individual messages, I'm just going to respond to Mikal's request just after I hopped off and put people in order from towniest to scummiest.
Vader - In part, this is because I don't think Vader gets recruited NP1. I just don't buy that scum would select him of all people, someone who was almost entirely absent DP1 and has generally struggled to be invested as scum in the past. It's not a 0% chance, but I'd say odds are very low that he's a scum Informant or some other similar role, so odds are that he's unlikely to either have been recruited or been a part of the initial scum team.
Wryly - Not too dissimilar from Vader. I think Wryly is one of the least likely players to have been recruited. I thought Wryly did very well last game at putting the pieces together and arguing in her defense, but she's still relatively new and it would be a big gamble to go in on a newer player for the swap. Scum Tracker is more plausible and would be a pretty ballsy fake claim to give during that massclaim (not that it hasn't worked before), so either Wryly was always scum (which hasn't shown up in her behavior so far) or she's town. I'm inclined towards the latter.
David - David is more of a reverse situation. I don't think there's much of any chance that David was scum from the start, don't think he draws attention to himself with that heads up with Thoth in DP1. So that leaves only the possibility of his having been recruited and his case is one where I would absolutely understand why scum would pick him given his role. David also has enough experience that picking him would make sense. Still, behaviorally, I just don't buy it. His responses to those suggestions all come off as pretty townie, so my opinion of him hasn't shifted much from last DP.
iLikePie5 - The Martyr claim is bugging me a bit. I did end up looking back at the Indian Politicians game he modded on DART and I remembered correctly that he gave me a very similarly described Martyr (it negated kills on the subsequent night), but if I'm right about how he's describing it here, it would just skip the next NP entirely if he's NK'd. I believe that he was biding the NK from his later posts last DP and he gave away that he was a passive role in discussion with Mikal earlier this DP. Still a possible fake claim, but the push for massclaims seemed like a genuine effort to scumhunt and I think he's been forthcoming since.
Mikal - Don't get why he's got David as most likely scum behind REF (just because of the role I guess? Don't see much analysis there), and his role is just something I've never seen before. It does kind of fit for the Engineers, but it's a weird sort of randomized JOAT role that stands out. He did seem to soft the Motivator early this DP with his back-and-forth with Pie, so it's more probable he was recruited if he is scum.
RexFavilla - I'm just having the hardest time with REF's role. The more I keep reading back through these exchanges, the more it looks like it's changing on the fly, going from an "odd sort of role cop" that he can only use on even nights to a character cop (first time seeing that) with the same even night stipulation... but it's also not really a character cop, more like he can get information from Luna about whether a given character is in the game. That does seem doubly strange with the Yakuza flip, since it means he only has one target he can choose who would be at all likely to fake claim their character. I can understand making a mistake in conveying a role, but we've been sitting waiting for full claims and it's weird that REF didn't have his ducks in a row. It's not confirmable, either, making it an outlier.
Alright, leaving it there for the night. Will be back on to discuss in the morning.
