Alien Mafia DP2

scattered thoughts:

1. Obviously the resistance of full claiming and the role description fumble look pretty sus for Rex
2. hard to see Mikal being scum but still saying Pie should've received that noti, unless they're both scum, he knew Pie had a passive role, he was planning to claim he was interfered with, or he's the recruit, meaning he really did send the night action to Pie
3. whiteflame is high on my list of who I would've chosen to convert as scum. He could have just presented the information from Vader accurately for town cred. behavior seems townie but I doubt I'll get useful behavior reads on experienced players, so I really hate how behavior-oriented this game is
4. some of these are pretty major characters and risky to fake claim in a game where scum were given no fake claims. Ellen Ripley especially. but this is a game where straightclaiming character and fakeclaiming role seems like a viable strategy, making Rex's power seem more questionable

This has been a pretty frustrating game for me so far. DP1 was a flash in the pan, 16 pages of DP2 haven't yielded as much progress as it should have, real life has left me much less time to process a much more quickly developing game than the last one, the Yakuza flip shat in my cereal and cost me a whole DP of data, and I'm inexperienced at reading behavior.

I'll probably be lynched for that claim fumble. So I want to present my reasoning for the next DP in case that happens.

I didn't want a full claim today because I think that it allows scum to target our remaining power roles while giving scum wiggle room to drive a mislynch. I had also intended to use my role tonight to confirm Mikal's character, as he's been my top scum read this game due to his oopsie hammer last DP feeling incredibly greasy (a Casey lynch would be disastrous for scum - she was inactive and they had no fake claims, so him hammering basically ensured that she could get the Yakuza fired off NP1 without the possibility of being lynched), his call for a mass claim this DP, and the overall 'vibe' of his game being different than my town games with him - less noncommittal and rational if a bit indecisive (his normal town meta imo), more driven by a personal agenda and a 'manipulative' feel. Of the three veteran players, all of them supported this imo anti-town move. However, Whiteflame's support makes a lot of sense given his role, as he can use Thoth's protective role to protect a claimed power role. That leaves Pie and Mikal. Pie to me would be the top recruitment attempt target. He's often the NP1 NK target, but he's much more use to scum as a recruit than a dead townie. And the way he and Mikal have been posting feels like a scum team, the way they apply pressure and drop off. Especially for Mikal, who is usually more pensive and contemplative in his playstyle and less 'driven'. Mikal just feels incredibly off to me.

Pie wanting a mass claim also makes zero sense as town. He knows he's almost always NKd as town, he has a role in which him baiting the NK basically stops the NK for the next NP. He should have wanted to stay quiet about the role and bait the NK - which wouldn't be hard seeing as he's Pie and is an NK magnet to begin with, but instead he outed that info. As scum, he would have motivation to out his role because it being out there will serve as an excuse for why he hasn't been NK'd going forward. When someone says 'why haven't you been NK'd yet' he can say 'well, scum won't NK me because it will cost them an NP!' I see a lot of scum motivation for him disclosing his role and pretty much zero town motivation. This is especially bad given that he was one of the big people pushing the mass claim - nobody had to twist his arm to spill the tea.

Then there's the Kohai issue. Mikal kept saying over and over that we have to lynch him this DP or it's game over, when if he's town lynching him this DP is a great way to lose the game. Kohai to me is null - I can see reasons for him being the scum recruit and for him not being the scum recruit. I don't think Casey using the Yakuza necessarily means they really wanted that role. Casey could be busy IRL (was inactive all last DP) and saw it as an exit, as being lynched as the Yakuza before using it would be disastrous for scum. But it is a tempting prospect as a hedge, as they wouldn't know about it being active at MYLO/LYLO. Whiteflame is also null/town lean.

Supa to me is like 90% town for previously disclosed reasons. Same with Wryly, whom I don't see as a likely scum recruit and my role PM heavily implies the existence of some sort of tracker.

Remind me of your justification again?

Pie wanting a mass claim also makes zero sense as town. He knows he's almost always NKd as town, he has a role in which him baiting the NK basically stops the NK for the next NP. He should have wanted to stay quiet about the role and bait the NK - which wouldn't be hard seeing as he's Pie and is an NK magnet to begin with, but instead he outed that info. As scum, he would have motivation to out his role because it being out there will serve as an excuse for why he hasn't been NK'd going forward. When someone says 'why haven't you been NK'd yet' he can say 'well, scum won't NK me because it will cost them an NP!' I see a lot of scum motivation for him disclosing his role and pretty much zero town motivation. This is especially bad given that he was one of the big people pushing the mass claim - nobody had to twist his arm to spill the tea.

People have said this multiple times, but we had zero behavioral reads to go off of because of the Yakuza. We had to do something to generate those unique reads. The mass claim was the way to do that. Did I want to keep my role hidden? Obviously. I tried baiting the NK DP1, but they had a Yakuza.

As for your role. I’ve mentioned why there’s basically zero utility in its use.

A) It’s even night so you could get max 2 shots off, but even that is unlikely because Luna said the game was swingy

B) The theme is complex, so scum could just claim their original character.

C) Even if you die, if WF is telling the truth, he can use your role and investigate someone

To be honest. I think that it is more likely than not that Pie got converted and scrambled for a fake claim than Ref messing up his claim Imo. When I was mafia with him he seemed to have his shit in order and wanted to plan things out. He’s also a good enough player that I could not see him fucking up a claim. I also know Casey is a big fan of Pie’s mafia play and if anything would choose Pie. Along with some behaviors I pointed out before and his more defensive attitude, I think Pie is a better lynch than REF

VTL Pie

I am probably gonna be dead wrong about this and it’s gonna be REF and I overthought this, but fuck it

I’m putting my vote now because more likely than not I won’t be on for when the DP ends. Today is my last crazy day of work and after this weekend I’ll be much more free

Remind me of your justification again?

David 8 faked his death and took Walter One's place on the crew. There's more background, but this is all I see that's relevant to the role. I haven't seen Alien: Covenant and I thought David 8 bit it at the end of Prometheus, but I guess he fooled me too.

whiteflame is high on my list of who I would've chosen to convert as scum. He could have just presented the information from Vader accurately for town cred. behavior seems townie but I doubt I'll get useful behavior reads on experienced players, so I really hate how behavior-oriented this game is

I'm flattered. I think I would have had at least some reason to modify the information if I was scum, if only to make it easier to sus someone who's an outlier - it's not like I gain any towncred for giving an accurate accounting of what Luna sent me, since I'm the only one who received it. And yeah, this game is pretty complex on the behavioral level given the Yakuza flip. It's definitely not just you struggling with reading behavior this DP.

To be honest. I think that it is more likely than not that Pie got converted and scrambled for a fake claim than Ref messing up his claim Imo.

Again, why would I fake claim if I was converted? If you think I am fake claiming, then you have to think that I am the original scum. Converted scum can just claim their original town role.

When I was mafia with him he seemed to have his shit in order and wanted to plan things out. He’s also a good enough player that I could not see him fucking up a claim.

If you’re talking about REF, he definitely messed up the role claim when he was scum with Banana. The soft claims got them early, and he was just as uneager to have people claim then.

I also know Casey is a big fan of Pie’s mafia play and if anything would choose Pie. Along with some behaviors I pointed out before and his more defensive attitude, I think Pie is a better lynch than REF

What do you think is defensive? I’ve been pushing for the mass claim the entire DP to generate roles and reads so we can lynch to the best of our abilities. Your logic is severely flawed in the sense, anyone could be converted, but there’s only one original scum. Once we catch that one, it should be easy from there

VTL Pie

I am probably gonna be dead wrong about this and it’s gonna be REF and I overthought this, but fuck it

So you think you’re going to be wrong about my lynch, yet you’re still going for it?

I just don't agree that supporting this massclaim was anti-town, especially given how little progress we were making in the lead-up to it. I strongly oppose massclaiming in the vast majority of instances, but the Yakuza flip changed that calculus for this DP and not just because of my role. We needed to gain what insight we could on characters and roles to focus attention on behavior. That comes at the cost of scum knowing that information as well, but I still think it's better than lynching with so little information or just randomly seeking claims in a game that's upended our reads coming off of last DP.

Can't say I agree with your reasoning. I don't have much insight into REF's scum play, but there's a reason he got found out a couple of games back. I don't think he'd have good reason to fuck up this claim as town, particularly given how long he had to get his claim in order. As for Pie, he's been a little more tentative this game, but that makes sense given the Yakuza flip. I would be more surprised if he was just as aggressive as usual.

I just fundamentally disagree that a Yakuza upends behavioral reads. I think it makes them more important. A player who has flipped alignment will change their behavior in ways which diverts from their normal town meta and often from their behavior pre-recruitment. Pie, for example, just went through all the rigamarole about what killing David means this DP vc next DP and agonized over how many NKs we will have. Then he claimed a role which, if he is NK'd, will buy us another night. Pie is often targetted early in the game when he is town. If you were Pie and new this and weren't recruited, wouldn't the obvious pro-town move be to draw the NK? I'd even fake-claim in that situation to make myself a juicier target. I think the benefit of that overwhlems whatever we gained from this mass claim.

On the contrary, if you were Pie and were recruited (very likely scenario), wouldn't you want to mass claim? If you are Pie and are scum, one of the hardest things to explain as the game drags on is why you haven't been killed yet when it is basically scum meta to do so. His claim is perfect for explaining that very thing. Disclosing it has huge anti-town ramifications while being very beneficial to scum. If he out and disclosed it on his own it would look sus, but as part of a mass claim it looks far more natural.

My fuck-up in that game was going too far out on a limb trying to stop scum lynches. Had nothing to do with my claim which was immaculate and not the reason for my lynch, which was 100% behavior driven.

Bruh the vote count said 2 people. Both you and David have implied Casey was innactive and it feels really tmi. I just went back and looked. That Dayphase started super late at night and most of the activity started when people woke up and it went from like 8am to 2pm. So like less than 8 hours from when people really got on and less than 18 since the game started. Both you and supa have been innactive longer than that in general. That’s not innactive nor would she be a prime target for that. Supa literally made a post saying he would be gone for 3 days at the start of the game. It bothered me when David said it and it bothers me now that you are saying it. It really feels like a weird thing to say as not once would I consider not posting within a few hours innactive. And to try and spin that I did that because I assumed she was going to be scum read so she would not get lynched. None of that is coherent and is only coherent if you have some assumption that she would not be posting. You keep saying I called for a mass claim. It was pies suggestion and I agreed to it along with every other player. I have had the same scum reads most of the dp. One robot/synthetic due to Supas role and likely david because it’s the only reason I can figure out why Casey would fire np1. You are at the top of the synthetic list because of that claim, delaying the mass claim, messing up claiming your role, and messing up claiming what it does. Eveyrthing you are saying does not logically follow and feels forced.

I just fundamentally disagree that a Yakuza upends behavioral reads. I think it makes them more important. A player who has flipped alignment will change their behavior in ways which diverts from their normal town meta and often from their behavior pre-recruitment.

That would be true…if we had any behavior to analyze in the first place. The DP ended super fast because of the hammer by Mikal. You have to bet that he was the original scum, but that doesn’t explain why he thought I could confirm him. Plus as the hammerer, he’d have the biggest target on his back.

Pie, for example, just went through all the rigamarole about what killing David means this DP vc next DP and agonized over how many NKs we will have. Then he claimed a role which, if he is NK'd, will buy us another night.

Yes, because I’m not going to lie about my role. I’ve made it fully aware to others that I think fake claiming as scum should only be done in extraordinary circumstances. And you’re also forgetting that I have to stay alive to be able to have a chance at being NKed.

Pie is often targetted early in the game when he is town. If you were Pie and new this and weren't recruited, wouldn't the obvious pro-town move be to draw the NK?

I did. In DP1. But this DP, we were forced to full claim. Hell, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation if I didn’t claim. So which is it? We shouldn’t have claimed or Pie’s claim is “bad.”

I'd even fake-claim in that situation to make myself a juicier target. I think the benefit of that overwhlems whatever we gained from this mass claim.

I disagree because I don’t agree with your risk assessment.

On the contrary, if you were Pie and were recruited (very likely scenario), wouldn't you want to mass claim? If you are Pie and are scum, one of the hardest things to explain as the game drags on is why you haven't been killed yet when it is basically scum meta to do so.

As I mentioned to Supa, why would I fake claim this if I was converted? I would have just used my true town role. If you hate my claim, then you have to assume I was the original scum, not the converted

His claim is perfect for explaining that very thing. Disclosing it has huge anti-town ramifications while being very beneficial to scum. If he out and disclosed it on his own it would look sus, but as part of a mass claim it looks far more natural.

So you think I was the original scum? You can’t have it both ways. Either I was converted and so my “behavior” is wrong or I am the original scum fake claiming this when I had already sorted DP1.

Official Vote Count:

Ref- 1/4- Mikal

Pie- 1/4- Vader

Day phase ends today at 4:30 PM CST

Roughly 7 hours and 15 minutes remain.

Rex seems sus af but I'm raising an eyebrow that our 3 likeliest recruit candidates are happy to FOS him.

Would Lunatic really put that Informant clue and a Character Cop in this game?

This has been my one thought that gives him town cred in the slightest. The claim is so fucking bad that why would he delay the mass claim (when it seemed like he was claiming a power role due to the refusal. He had 24 hours and that’s what he came up with. But that melts away a bit when you look at the timeline. He claimed role cop (which is a standard role) then changed it after you claimed to a role I’ve never seen.

On the contrary, if you were Pie and were recruited (very likely scenario), wouldn't you want to mass claim? If you are Pie and are scum, one of the hardest things to explain as the game drags on is why you haven't been killed yet when it is basically scum meta to do so.

As I mentioned to Supa, why would I fake claim this if I was converted? I would have just used my true town role. If you hate my claim, then you have to assume I was the original scum, not the converted

His claim is perfect for explaining that very thing. Disclosing it has huge anti-town ramifications while being very beneficial to scum. If he out and disclosed it on his own it would look sus, but as part of a mass claim it looks far more natural.

So you think I was the original scum? You can’t have it both ways. Either I was converted and so my “behavior” is wrong or I am the original scum fake claiming this when I had already sorted DP1.

I don't think it's a fake claim, I think it's your original role and you were recruited. Now that you are scum, you see the role as useless and want to use it as a tool to explain why you haven't been Nkd as the game goes on. A mass claim allows you to put it out there and instrumentalize the role in that way. If you were town you'd see the role for the potent weapon that it is and want to keep it hidden at all costs, and try to bait the NK this NP - because you would be thinking they fired off the yakuza recruit DP1 instead of killing you and that you're still a the top of their shitlist.

I don't think it's a fake claim, I think it's your original role and you were recruited.

Okay, glad you got your story straight.

Now that you are scum, you see the role as useless and want to use it as a tool to explain why you haven't been Nkd as the game goes on.

Or mass claiming was the only way to generate reads cause DP1 was useless with the quick hammer. Plus I already mentioned the strategy for this DP.

A mass claim allows you to put it out there and instrumentalize the role in that way. If you were town you'd see the role for the potent weapon that it is and want to keep it hidden at all costs, and try to bait the NK this NP - because you would be thinking they fired off the yakuza recruit DP1 instead of killing you and that you're still a the top of their shitlist.

So you think I suggested a mass claiming and claimed Martyr for towncred? Yes, I would like to keep my role hidden, but we had no path forward because DP1 there was nothing. Rather sitting here twiddling our thumbs, I led the initiative. You wouldn’t even be talking about this if I hadn’t suggested the mass claim lol, so it’s really rich that you’re calling me out for my claim when you didn’t even want to mass claim in the first place.

I don't think it's a fake claim, I think it's your original role and you were recruited.

Okay, glad you got your story straight.

Nothing to get straight, I never once implied that you fakeclaimed. Supa did, not sure why, but I haven't.

Now that you are scum, you see the role as useless and want to use it as a tool to explain why you haven't been Nkd as the game goes on.

Or mass claiming was the only way to generate reads cause DP1 was useless with the quick hammer. Plus I already mentioned the strategy for this DP.

Activity could have been spun out of speculating over the recruit and pushing for claims in a more sensible manner. Once activity starts it feeds itself. In fact, I'd say the long amount of time spent arguing about a mass claim consituted a derailment of otherwise productive discussion over who was recruited and more surgical application of pressure towards likely candidates. The subtle push for a lynch was also towards people not in the likely recruit pool, who should be under the most scrutiny imo.

A mass claim allows you to put it out there and instrumentalize the role in that way. If you were town you'd see the role for the potent weapon that it is and want to keep it hidden at all costs, and try to bait the NK this NP - because you would be thinking they fired off the yakuza recruit DP1 instead of killing you and that you're still a the top of their shitlist.

So you think I suggested a mass claiming and claimed Martyr for towncred? Yes, I would like to keep my role hidden, but we had no path forward because DP1 there was nothing. Rather sitting here twiddling our thumbs, I led the initiative. You wouldn’t even be talking about this if I hadn’t suggested the mass claim lol, so it’s really rich that you’re calling me out for my claim when you didn’t even want to mass claim in the first place.

I think you pushed a mass claim for two reasons. One is that you wanted to disclose your role but didn't want it to look scummy, so a mass claim lets you do that. The other is that you wanted to get all the info on the table to plan your night action now that there's no protective roles (Whiteflame's role was unknown at the time). That way the scum team can eliminate any investigative roles NP2 and, if they pull off a mislynch today, go hard for another mislynch next DP and clinch the game. Whereas without a mass claim even if we didn't lynch scum today we could at least have the investigative roles protected via anonymity and have some results to discuss next DP. As town you could have let pressure fall on you, as it naturally would, and claim something that would draw the NK but instead you subtly pushed pressure elsewhere while acting in ways that only make sense if you are scum.

Won't have much time today until I'm home at 5-ish (4 CST) which is around the deadline. 🫩

Just caught up. I’m parking my vote on Rex. I argue we should lynch the role that has the least town utility

The more I keep thinking on this, the less sure I am between you two in particular. The back-and-forth seems authentic, so I can't see a world in which you two are scum together, but I can't write either of you off. I've already stated my concerns with REF, so I want to dig a little deeper into Pie.

I believe the Martyr claim is real, so the main question is whether Pie was recruited. I still think the effort to get a massclaim makes sense from a town perspective, since it clearly got a great deal of conversation moving and has given us more insight into behavior in the process. What's leaving me a little off kilter about him is how his role fits into that decision. There was clearly value to not revealing his Martyr role as town. I disagree with REF that he should have faked his claim as town (the risk of just being lynched as a result was substantial and too many of those types of efforts fall apart), but I'm surprised that he didn't try to garner everyone's claims first before yielding his own. Considering how many of our past games have involved Pie trying to push back on claiming until everyone else had claimed, this does stand out. Granted, the Yakuza flip changed things and the massclaim push itself is different, and granted, it's something I would scumread from most anyone else if they were withholding their claim to see how things shake out. Pie usually tries to hold off as much as possible, though, and this particular role would only afford him more reason to do so.

I could see going either way on this. I think REF's claim still stands out, particularly with the changes he made after claiming, but I can see a basis for Pie as well. It's going to be a busy afternoon, but I'll be done with work before the deadline so I'll make a decision beforehand.

Just caught up. I’m parking my vote on Rex. I argue we should lynch the role that has the least town utility

Pie's role has zero town utility. Now that he's disclosed it scum will never NK him if he's town. Mine at least has some. I'd agree that it will have zero utility next DP, but it has at least some now. And should we really be lynching based on role utility when we have two lynches left and one will likely be a policy lynch of you next DP, and then a shot in the dark if you are town?

Activity could have been spun out of speculating over the recruit and pushing for claims in a more sensible manner.

I didn’t see you doing this once. Not last DP, not this one.

Once activity starts it feeds itself. In fact, I'd say the long amount of time spent arguing about a mass claim consituted a derailment of otherwise productive discussion over who was recruited and more surgical application of pressure towards likely candidates.

I’ve said since the beginning, the whole likely recruit vs unlikely recruit is all WIFOM. You’re never going to know. Casey is smart enough so it’s a best 50/50 shot to choosing someone who is obvious vs not. Choosing someone who would be scumread after DP1 vs not.

The subtle push for a lynch was also towards people not in the likely recruit pool, who should be under the most scrutiny imo.

The best play this DP is finding the original scum member. And then using their flip and behavior this DP to piggyback onto the next one to catch the recruit.

I think you pushed a mass claim for two reasons. One is that you wanted to disclose your role but didn't want it to look scummy, so a mass claim lets you do that.

Let’s be honest to ourselves here. I basically had already soft claimed the shit out of my role early on. So your only argument here is that I was converted. And that’s entirely based on WIFOM cause you believe that’s my true role in first place. You’re also forgetting that a mass claim would entail my true partner claiming and possible getting caught with that fake claim. So there’s no point to advocating for that mass claim.

The other is that you wanted to get all the info on the table to plan your night action now that there's no protective roles (Whiteflame's role was unknown at the time).

This logic isn’t unique to me. Yes, it’s information for scum, everyone knows that. But everyone agreed that the pros outweigh the cons in this scenario.

That way the scum team can eliminate any investigative roles NP2 and, if they pull off a mislynch today, go hard for another mislynch next DP and clinch the game. Whereas without a mass claim even if we didn't lynch scum today we could at least have the investigative roles protected via anonymity and have some results to discuss next DP. As town you could have let pressure fall on you, as it naturally would, and claim something that would draw the NK but instead you subtly pushed pressure elsewhere while acting in ways that only make sense if you are scum.

Again, you’re assuming that I would lie about my role. That’s not true at all, and I’ve advised other townies that unless they’re 100% sure there aren’t drawbacks, they shouldn’t. If I claimed something that was CCed, that’s throwing the game. You’re saying I could’ve “acted” another way. That’s just personal preference, not an argument for scum lol.

I disagree with REF that he should have faked his claim as town (the risk of just being lynched as a result was substantial and too many of those types of efforts fall apart), but I'm surprised that he didn't try to garner everyone's claims first before yielding his own.

Mass claiming together is always better. It works in our live games all the time. And let’s say, I waited, then the opposite argument would be used against me. Pie waited till the end to claim and therefore his role is fake. You can paint any picture you want with WIFOM.

Considering how many of our past games have involved Pie trying to push back on claiming until everyone else had claimed, this does stand out. Granted, the Yakuza flip changed things and the massclaim push itself is different, and granted, it's something I would scumread from most anyone else if they were withholding their claim to see how things shake out. Pie usually tries to hold off as much as possible, though, and this particular role would only afford him more reason to do so.

And then the flip side of this argument would occur as I mentioned above.

Pie's role has zero town utility. Now that he's disclosed it scum will never NK him if he's town. Mine at least has some. I'd agree that it will have zero utility next DP, but it has at least some now. And should we really be lynching based on role utility when we have two lynches left and one will likely be a policy lynch of you next DP, and then a shot in the dark if you are town?

My role makes sense in a game Luna said was going to be swingy. From a game design standpoint, my role makes sense. Your only argument here is a WIFOM argument that I’m one of the best options to recruit. Period. That’s all you have.

Your role makes zero sense from a mod design perspective. Even night makes zero sense. Character cop makes zero sense. You don’t even have utility if scum just claim their true role.

Mass claiming together is always better. It works in our live games all the time. And let’s say, I waited, then the opposite argument would be used against me. Pie waited till the end to claim and therefore his role is fake. You can paint any picture you want with WIFOM.

Yeah, I don't want to rely too much on this type of thinking. I recognize it's WIFOM.