Alien Mafia DP3

I haven't accounted for the possibility that the recruit fake claimed their character and role after the alignment switch.

You didn’t soft claim martyr. You soft claimed a power role.

because you are scum. Having an active power role doesn’t mean you can claim it. Your claim is convienent. Skep was all over this last dp as well but I dismissed it because of how dumb his role was. You also said you weren’t beloved and claimed a role that functions the same way. Not to mention if I motivated you as scum you could have got 2 night actions.

because the role is basically beloved and a reason for why you are alive

I've still got problems with Pie's role, but he didn't softclaim an active PR just because he suggested protective roles shouldn't visit him. And I believe he'd have every reason to confirm that you Motivated him if he did use an active PR, which suggests he either didn't use an active PR or didn't have one. I do think it's weird how much he's leaning on the DP1 softclaim as a strong reason why he's not OG scum. It's not a good reason why he can't be OG scum, just a restriction to what he could claim later.

gun to my head it’s

you David

or wf david

I don’t think David outright busses wf out of the gate when im pushing you. David as scum and if I’m wrong would just wait for wf and then push because I’m leaning you. Scum David and wf would win because I would vote for you

I don't get the fixation on David. I get that there's a non-zero possibility that he's the recruited scum, but that's extremely low probability for someone who has said repeatedly that they should be lynched first next DP.

OK, I'm largely caught up on the big points made since I went MIA. I really want to dig into potential scum pairings, particularly after looking over Wryly's analysis. I'm going to eat and I'll come back to this afterward, I promise it won't be nearly as long this time.

When you come back, I’m interested to hear your scum pairings and reasons for why.

It's been over an hr. Who's scum and why?

I'm writing up thoughts, give me a bit.

It's been 25 minutes. Do you have anything?

I'm a slow writer in the best of times, and I'm trying to inform these as best I can. Please be patient.

Understood.

Pie/Mikal - Very unlikely. I believe either of them could be OG scum, but them as a team just doesn't make sense to me. Their back-and-forth looks genuine and, in particular, Mikal's efforts to soft his Motivator claim to Pie just reads as enough uncertainty that I don't buy it being manufactured. Pie would have every reason to use that to "confirm" Mikal's claim if they were a team.

Mikal/David - Very unlikely. It's possible that Mikal would just hard bus his own partner here, but the degree to which he believes David must be on the scum team based on so little just doesn't come off as trying to put distance between them, especially since it doesn't give Mikal an out if David did flip scum. I'd say it's slightly more believable than Pie/Mikal, if only because their exchanges have been less extensive and could be more easily faked.

Wryly/David - Very unlikely. It's a meeting of two low probability recruited scum. Wryly stands a slightly better chance of being OG scum just because she could be a scum Tracker, but I don't see Wryly giving Mikal cover after that, so that chance has gone down significantly.

Mikal/Wryly - Possible. That Tracker result on Mikal places these two together or not at all. Wryly remains a very unlikely pick for a scum recruit, but I can't dismiss her at this point. Scum could have picked a relatively new player specifically because they'd be written off as an unlikely pick. That paired with Mikal, whose claim sticks out to me the most as odd and who is almost entirely reliant on being Tracked to Wryly as an alibi for not having committed the NK, means I'm considering this pair.

Pie/David - Possible. I still believe David's very unlikely to be scum, especially given his stated willingness to be lynched next DP, but I also can't just write him off for something he's promising to do later. It's hard to ignore that his role is particularly beneficial for scum to recruit, that it can't be confirmed without lynching him, and that his CC of Thoth in DP1 made him look about as townie as possible from the outset. And Pie could very probably be OG scum. He keeps arguing that there are plenty of reasons why he isn't scum, but it all seems pretty loose when it comes to nailing down his role early and pretty weak when it comes to tests. Pie hasn't been Tracked, either. He has and can have no role validation, so he's relying mostly on behavioral choices like pushing the massclaim to carry him through.

If I had to pick, based on both the likelihood of the Yakuza being used on David vs. Wryly (Mikal couldn't have known that Wryly was the Tracker, so he and Casey would have been selecting blind) and the lower likelihood that Mikal and Wryly would tie themselves together that closely through a Tracker result, I go with Pie/David as the most likely of the two.

Damn, didn't include Pie/Wryly. Also very unlikely. Don't see scum Wryly, as Pie's partner, lending credence to Mikal's visit (similar to Wryly/David).

As predicted

Glad I could meet your predictions.

anyone else smelling a massive pie / whiteflame bus?

Bro are you serious?

Mikal and Whiteflame are calling EXACTLY a Pie/Kohai scum team.

You know you’re town, so Pie/Kohai can’t be a team. But that’s literally what they’re saying the team is, so they can lynch me and win the goddamn game. That’s why Mikal cares so much about the order of Pie vs WF.

Yes I said this

it’s you and pie

or wf and pie

and if wf and pie are scum. They are forced to bus each other. It’s literally what I posted before and why we need to go pie first. It solves the game.

No I care about the order because if it’s you and David. The game ends. Stop deflecting and making arguments I’m not making.

VTL Pie

It honestly doesn't matter which order we lynch. I'm calling it now: wf and pie are scum or mikal and castin are scum. There's no other possible combo that makese sense.

VTL Pie

VTl pie

Bro are you serious?

Mikal and Whiteflame are calling EXACTLY a Pie/Kohai scum team.

You know you’re town, so Pie/Kohai can’t be a team. But that’s literally what they’re saying the team is, so they can lynch me and win the goddamn game. That’s why Mikal cares so much about the order of Pie vs WF.

TO be clear I'd rather go for whiteflame first as I think he's og scum and you're the recruit. A mikal / wf team doesn't make sense

Well… didn’t expect that.

gg all

Damn it. I hate my unvote post ready to go to prevent a quick hammer.

GG

Figured you might, so we timed it. Easy mistake to make.

When you see the role flips.

you Brian is going to melt

I knew for a fact wf was scum but didn't catch the wf / mikal team. It just didn't make sense with castin's results

I was literally about to post my unvote post