Madoka Magica - Episode 1

If Casey dies and flips wolf I wouldn’t be shocked if this was a bus.

I mean... if you think I'd push a bus this early and consistently, more power to you.

Trimming to 48 hours might make sense, though I agree with Mag1c that we might want to keep this one consistent unless everyone buys into the shift.

If Casey is scum mafia have every reason to bus especially if the other player is active.

that said I’m admittedly throwing things out there as I have nothing else to go on.

eh. kinda flip flopping on Casey. just not sure, not enough info to make a decision, plus i think night actions will clarify things

VTNL

I would like everyone to vote Yea or Nay on:

Trimming future day phases to 48 hours

Trimming future day phases to 36 hours and night phases after this one to 12 hours

Please let me know if you think either of these will be a problem for you.

#15

Hello, everyone! It's good to be back. I know absolutely nothing about this theme aside from what WF has already shared, so I appreciate that. I agree with not character claiming due to possible Anticlaim.

VTL Kohai

I felt like this was blend-in behavior, with the vote on Kohai just a way of following the crowd, possibly with the added sinister motive of getting pressure on Kohai for basically nothing. Not really a reason to reaction test someone, when I'm already doing it.

#29-30

I wouldn't jump to this conclusion; seems like boilerplate OP stuff to me. I doubt there's a 3P in an eight player game. That sort of thing is hard to balance.

I'd be cautious about leaning too hard on this sort of analysis. It's not all too uncommon for protagonists to be scum - hell, I made the main two characters of Deltarune the scum team in my game. Granted, I'd agree that he's more likely town than scum, but I'd still only put him in lean town at best based on his character.

This much I agree with, I don't think Thoth would put in a mechanic that could punish the town just because of random chance.

Just general thoughts and speculation. I don't fully agree with it, but it seems harmless, with no agenda. I briefly felt the first post could have an agenda behind it- leading town away from something that could be true. But eh. That's just a circular argument that assumes 3P is real Casey knows and is TMIing... all possible, but also just possible that this is her honest thoughts.

And while scum has no reason to help things, one would think scum Casey would have at least some defense of herself here, rather than just letting herself get lynched.

So there's a case against her but it's not very strong. I wouldn't lynch her here.

Well, it doesn't really matter anyway. If the three of us can't agree to pursue Casey, which would only get us to L-1 anyway, there's no point in doing it and we might as well just NL. Mag1c's right that there's not a lot to go off of, just means we're focused on results and one less flip DP2.

Unvote

VTNL

abstain

Fair enough, I at least understand where you're coming from.

I'll say Yea to the first one, Nay to the second.

Vote Count

VTNL (2/5) | Mag1cman, whiteflame

Casey (2/5) | Pie, Kohai

Kohai (2/5) | Rex, Casey

Tagging y'all to ask for your vote on the poll in post #155.

VTNL

So there's a case against her but it's not very strong. I wouldn't lynch her here.

Admittedly my read on her was very OMGUS. I felt 3 people voting back to back was a bit odd and felt there was at least one wolf on the wagon. Casey is the most probable wolf.

that said I can’t make an honest read with only 3 posts. There’s not that is screaming AI

If Casey ever did flip mafia I think wf is the most probably partner.

I have a feeling one wolf is not active but the other wolf is.

Vote Count

VTNL (3/5) | Mag1cman, whiteflame, Kohai

Kohai (2/5) | Rex, Casey

Casey (1/5) | Pie

I'm just gonna out my setup speculation now

I waited bc I didn't want townies to act anti town, hoping to be recruited

I think Kyubey = recruiter of some kind. Maybe cult, maybe a lone mafioso. If cult I would imagine no night kills, if mafioso, I imagine the recruit is 1x.

8 players is weird so i felt just having two scum isn't what we're dealing with here

how do you know there's two mafiosos?

how do you know there's two mafiosos?

It fits the pattern from what we have seen. There’s no way 5 v 3 make sense. Town loses on day 1.

It could be a setup with an SK but that’s also not likely.

I think Kyubey = recruiter of some kind. Maybe cult, maybe a lone mafioso. If cult I would imagine no night kills, if mafioso, I imagine the recruit is 1x.

I'd been considering possible roles for Kyuubey and this one crossed my mind. If true, I can't imagine it's more than 1X, and we'd either be dealing with a 6-1-1 (which might be a little too much swing depending on the TP) situation or a 7-1.

I'm ok with 48 hours I guess. I hesitate bc I don't know how busy I'll be the next two days. I think my house might be haunted. I don't think this amount of home repair emergencies across a short span of time is statistically possible.

One time I smelt this overwhelming scent of shit and sewage, and I heard running water. Heart sinking, I followed my nose, and traced the smell to one of my furnace registers. I looked down the vent and there it was, shit. Shit in my vents. Turds and toilet paper flowing in my vents, in the duct work. Whimpering with dread I went outside and removed the panel I had covering up the crawlspace entrance, and a tide -- a tide -- of shit came pouring out, like The Shining but with shit instead of blood. tl;dr my house literally hates me, it begrudges me every moment of peace I wrestle from the jaws of this life.

Casey is my biggest scum read right now, but I've been wrong on her pretty catastrophically before and I don't want to lynch her on her first DP back from her mafia vacay because it's kind of a dick move. So, VTNL

These would be my loose reads:

Lean town:

Kohai, Supa

Null:

Pie, Magic, Wryly

Lean scum:

Casey, Whiteflame

Kohai in #11

If anyone is forced to claim them kt should be a soft role claim. Absolutely no character claims.

This has been repeated various times by Kohai. When asked later, he says that he knows characters specifically trigger something. Still feels a lot like TMI. I don't see a real way a townie just knows what does and doesn't trigger anticlaim. I want to suspend judgment because "no way scum has the balls to claim such a special and unheard of role, right?" But I remember Mikal doing the same thing a couple games ago.

And yet, there might be a way this works with my setup speculation. Doesn't even mean Kohai is town tho

#17

I can guarantee that there’s at least one scam on my wagon.

For the record I think this is a towny reaction. I will grant this

a few other things Kohai said feel towny.

flip flopping on Kohai. Once again, water is too muddy to convict just yet. Wouldn't lynch here either

I can’t stand cult / recruiter mechanisms so I hope that’s not the case

unvote

Just general thoughts and speculation. I don't fully agree with it, but it seems harmless, with no agenda.

What exactly didn't you agree with, is 8 players too short for a 3P or not

I still don't get where Casey/WF is coming from

Since we have more players showing up I’m down with going back to cast

ok, and what of 1v5v1 (TP)? Or a pair of lone mafiosos? Or a recruitment mechanic?

Why not give any consideration to those and just assert that there's another scum? This is why I say a lot of what you post feels like TMI.

I expect big things from you tomorrow

its more of a behavioral read from wf. Few things that he said feels a bit pairing. That said if Casey is town then I obviously re evaluate