HCBM Mafia DP2

1. youre misrepresenting my argument.
2. how does hated imply miller?

Already did day 1 but sure

matt Ebrus hated because of the 2024 thanksgiving clock management debacle. I decided against taking a timeout with 42 seconds left on the clock which costed the Bears the game. It was such a bad call I was fired midseason.

I know I've been slow to post today, mainly because I've been trying to make sense of plausible scum pairings. As I said, my two scumreads are Shining and Thoth (his giving his reasoning eventually didn't move the needle much, he's only a little closer to null now) and I don't think they're a likely scum pair. I just don't buy that Shining would hop on the wagon with Thoth and then turn on him like that if they were a team. So, if either of them are scum, who would they pair with? Going to leave myself out of this analysis for obvious reasons.

Shining -

Can't really see a world in which he pushes back on Magoroth's results this hard and considers him one of his lead scum pairings (can't imagine scum would actively push back on their own partner's gambit if this was a gambit), so at least for the purposes of considering who Shining would be paired with, I'm taking Magoroth's results as gospel. That rules out anyone who wasn't on the lynch, which includes Thoth and Wryly. Already largely ruled out the former and I had a townread on the latter, so that's simple enough.

That places the pool of plausible partners on Kohai and Mag1c and while I have slight townreads on both, I'd have to place Mag1c as the more plausible one. Neither of them have had much to say to or about Shining, but Mag1c has said he looks townier for unclear reasons. I also just buy the early Hated claim more than I buy the later Vanilla claim. It's not a lot to go on, but that's my lean.

Thoth -

The wagon that stacked up on Thoth earlier and the frustration aimed at him made it pretty clear that at least a few people are unlikely to be his partner. Already said that includes Shining, but I'd also throw Mag1c in there (he started the wagon - can't imagine he'd do that) and Wryly (kept expressing frustration over his lack of willingness to clarify his sus on me). Maybe some of this was staged, but I don't buy it.

That leaves just 2: Magoroth and Kohai. I can't rule either of them out. Kohai mentioned the red check that he thought Thoth had against me, which gives some indication that he didn't know what Thoth's thinking was. It's not a lot to stage something like that, and if Magoroth is town, then it would fit his result for Kohai to be scum since he was on the lynch while Thoth was off of it. I remain a little uncertain of Magoroth, especially given how his results split the game down the middle, but it makes sense that both scum wouldn't have been on that DP1 lynch, and I don't think Magoroth would have so much difficulty establishing that his results were accurate if the Sensor was a fake claim. So currently leaning toward Thoth/Kohai.

Those are my picks for scum pairs. At this point, I'd prefer to lynch either Shining or Thoth, since that would either result in a scum lynch or at least cut down POE substantially.

WHITEFLAME

Whiteflame has been afk all game. I remember him being more active and while he never really drove town like Pie does, he does help town when he can. Maybe hes busy from the holidays, but its frustrating because its making me scum read him, especially when Thoth and Magoroth are sussing him.

Considering how few posts, let alone substantive posts, you've put out, this activity read is pretty odd. The long story short is, yes, holidays. And I've responded to the susses that have been levied at me.

Scum is probably WF/Thoth or maybe Thoth/Magoroth.

Don't get the first pairing at all, especially considering how he started off this DP death tunneling me.

okay... so apparently Miller would add +1 to the vote count if a Miller exists.

Hated does imply a kind of Miller.

I'm confused. A Miller investigates as scum, but is part of town. I don't get how that would affect vote counts or be implied by the Hated.

Can we get full character claims? From everyone in [Kohai, Mag1cman, Whiteflame]?

I did character claim.

hated is not a miller in any way shape or form. the only thing a hated does is require 1 less votes to get yeeted

Vote Count

Thoth (1/4) - Shining

Mag1cman (2/4) - Thoth, Magoroth

You can not verbatim say what your PM says. You can summarize to the best of your ability. This is listed in the original post for this game

Do you really see a world where Kohai and Magoroth are scummates and Magoroth comes out with "there is one scum among Kohai, whiteflame, and Mag1cman."

Never mind I'm an idiot

This is the pairings logic I jotted down and I can't be arsed to clean it up to remove the repeat pairings

whiteflame X Magoroth - Magoroth would not put his scummate in POE

whiteflame X Mag1cman - only 1 player in Magoroth's POE can be scum

whiteflame X Thoth - Thoth tunneled whiteflame

whiteflame ? Shining - distantly possible, though Shining VTL'd whiteflame

whiteflame X Kohai - only 1 player in Magoroth's POE can be scum; Kohai VTL'd whiteflame

Kohai X Magoroth - Magoroth would not put his scummate in POE

Kohai X Mag1cman - only 1 player in Magoroth's POE can be scum

Kohai ? Thoth - possible

Kohai ? Shining - possible

Kohai X whiteflame - only 1 player in Magoroth's POE can be scum; Kohai VTL'd whiteflame

Thoth X whiteflame - Thoth tunneled whiteflame

Thoth X Mag1cman - Mag1cman tunneled Thoth

Thoth ? Kohai - possible

Thoth X Shining - Shining VTL'd Thoth; only 1 player in Magoroth's remainder POE can be scum

Thoth ? Magoroth - possible

Mag1cman X whiteflame - only 1 player in Magoroth's POE can be scum

Mag1cman X Magoroth - Magoroth would not put his scummate in POE; Mag1cman tunneled Magoroth

Mag1cman X Thoth - Mag1c tried to tunnel Thoth

Mag1cman ? Shining - possible

Mag1cman X Kohai - only 1 player in Magoroth's POE can be scum

Shining ? Mag1cman - possible

Shining ? Kohai - possible

Shining ? whiteflame - distantly possible, though Shining VTL'd whiteflame

Shining X Thoth - only 1 player in Magoroth's remainder POE can be scum; Shining VTL'd Thoth

Shining X Magoroth - Shining is FOSing Magoroth

Magoroth X whiteflame - Magoroth would not put his scummate in POE

Magoroth X Mag1cman - Magoroth would not put his scummate in POE; Mag1c tunneled Magoroth

Magoroth ? Thoth - possible

Magoroth X Kohai - Magoroth would not put his scummate in POE

Magoroth ? Shining - possible

That last Magoroth/Shining is wrong and I forgot to update it but oh well.

Right, so that leaves us with possible pairings of

Mag1cman/Shining

Kohai/Magoroth

Thoth/Kohai

Shining/Kohai

Thoth/Magoroth

Do you really see a world where Kohai and Magoroth are scummates and Magoroth comes out with "there is one scum among Kohai, whiteflame, and Mag1cman."

Wasn't one of the teams I mentioned, but it's possible. Seems you've got this as a possible pairing. Wouldn't be quite as likely from where I'm sitting as the other two (mainly because of Magoroth's behavior so far - he comes off as pretty genuinely frustrated with how is uncertainty is being portrayed), but I could see it happening. From where you're sitting, though, the same reasoning applies to me and Magoroth.

Actually that's a mistake because my brain is in four places at once today, I mislisted them as a pairing.

I need a nap. I'll be back later.

I remember you used to be utterly baffled by how I play mafia. Like i get I am inherently scummy, but at this point you have to lnow my town play. Magoroth's claim is simply unbelievable for me. People (and I) have already went over Mago.

I remember you used to be utterly baffled by how I play mafia. Like i get I am inherently scummy, but at this point you have to lnow my town play.

Keywords there are “used to.” Most of your play is usual for you, but I can’t help but note the distinctive choices.

Magoroth's claim is simply unbelievable for me. People (and I) have already went over Mago.

I can’t dismiss the possibility of his being scum entirely, hence he’s still on my possible list with Thoth. I just don’t buy that he’s the most likely suspect.

Can I get a full claim

I will post later tonight, but anyway, I am a 1x dayvig until MYLO / LYLO

We should vote on your vig shot and then no lynch this DP.

Why no lynch?

Because Thoth’s vig shot will be our lynch

Because we are an odd number of players away from parity, assuming 2 mafia, which is almost certainly true.

So we are 3 players away from parity. Dayvig + Lynch + NK and it’s over before tomorrow starts.

If we were 4 players from parity, then all three kills would leave us at 1 away from parity tomorrow. We still get another day, assuming no more kills.

At 5 from parity, the dayvig shot would drop us from two more DPs to one unless we VTNL.

And the cycle repeats.

(assuming the lynch is a mislynch)

(and the shot is a misshot)

What I’m saying is, when town minus scum is an odd number, a bad dayvig shot could make us lose a day.

Actually when (town + scum) - scum is odd. So just when town is odd.

Is there a reason you haven't already shot WF?

Yes

Well that strengthened my town lean on Thoth, fake claiming a confirmable day role would be stupid. Only way I don't see him being town rn is if he's 3P.

If I eliminate Thoth pairings then from my possible pairings, we're left with

Mag1cman/Shining

Shining/Kohai

So either way, Shining.

This is assuming there are only 2 scum, and that Magoroth would not fake claim Sensor and put his scummate in the POE.

Magoroth would be putting him scum mate in the PoE always. Because he has two PoEs.

One for wagon, one for non wagon.