HCBM Mafia DP2

So is the part about your role not lasting into MYLO/LYLO accurate or not?

Yes

Uh... Right. Fuck. This crazy gambit of his really blew up my POEs. I had a solidish town lean on Thoth, that's gone. He's just been too cagey, reckless, and deceitful this DP. Whatever scumhunting he was trying to do came at the cost of his credibility and town's efficiency imo.

A dayvig really would've helped me narrow down the POE by eliminating him from suspicion. Governor does nothing. He could easily be scum straight claiming Governor, so even if he confirms his role this DP we've gotten no further.

Where the hell do I even go from here.

If Thoth is scum, I know his partner can only be Magoroth or Kohai.

If Thoth is not scum, then scum are popping champagne and celebrating right now because Thoth has distracted town from their trail very well with this play.

Im going to take a step back and look at Thoth later

Shining read coming soon

As for the gambit, while I get what Thoth was aiming for, he would have had to use his Governor on the lynch this DP to confirm his role, otherwise he would have just been auto-lynched next DP. If we had actually gone through with the VTNL, Thoth wouldn't even have had a lynch to use his Governor on, so he would have gone into next DP with no role validation and been auto-lynched. That's dangerous play regardless of affiliation.

I was planning to use it and figured that I could come clean tomorrow since Governor isn't that far from Dayvig and the lynch change would have been self-evident. The VTNL plan did not occur to me, though it probably should have given that we were on odds. Again, I got too worked up thinking I had come up with such a brilliant plan and didn't see that obvious fault, among others.

Honestly my original suspicion was Mag1cman/Shining. Mag1c tried to get a Cop to claim; they both started FOSing Magoroth as soon as he reported Sensor results; Shining has been agreeing with Mag1c quite a bit and Mag1c has been trying to put distance between himself and Shining a little too much.

Now? Who the fuck knows.

If Thoth is not scum, then scum are popping champagne and celebrating right now because Thoth has distracted town from their trail very well with this play.

I really think there's a good chance that it was not all for nothing, and you will be able to find some scumtells in people's reactions tomorrow, especially since I'm almost certainly going to use my ability today, which will make me 10000000000% the night-kill since I will be town-confirmed.

Unless it's possible for Mafia to have a Governor? Is that a thing outside of bribes in 30s movies?

Governor isn't that far from dayvig? It is literally the opposite of a dayvig.

Yeah, I fucked up. No denying it.

MafiaWiki lists Governor as a town or mafia role.

Governor isn't that far from dayvig? It is literally the opposite of a dayvig.

Actually, in a way it's the same thing since apparently a hypothetical dayvig would have ended the day immediately, although I didn't know that and never thought to ask since I held this truth to be self-evident, that all dayvigs are created to continue the day after doing an extra kill.

Ping

So is the part about your role not lasting into MYLO/LYLO accurate or not?

Yes

Alright, so the only way we can confirm your role is during this DP or we have to be certain we'll score a lynch on scum. Otherwise, you're functionally Vanilla.

I was planning to use it and figured that I could come clean tomorrow since Governor isn't that far from Dayvig and the lynch change would have been self-evident. The VTNL plan did not occur to me, though it probably should have given that we were on odds. Again, I got too worked up thinking I had come up with such a brilliant plan and didn't see that obvious fault, among others.

Well, it was an interesting plan, I'll give it that much.

It's late and I'm not going to come to a decision tonight. I can see some value in having Thoth effectively town confirm himself, even if we lose out on a lynch in the process. The trouble is that that means we enter MYLO basically by default next DP.

Since Governor can be a town or mafia role, it won't confirm anything, unfortunately.

Since Governor can be a town or mafia role, it won't confirm anything, unfortunately.

I've only ever seen it as a town role. Made the same mistake with several other roles in previous games, but apparently I don't learn. Thanks for calling that out.

Shining ISO:

I am comfortable with buying Kohai's hated claim. I remember someone fakeclaiming Popular, but it takes a strong player to pull it off and while Kohai is good, I'd expect him to slip up eventually if scum.

None of this makes a point on whether hated is believable or not. Basically just “I don’t care whether or not he’s lying, we’ll catch him later if he is.”

Which isn’t completely invalid but I’d expect someone who’s town to say, “it’s a very risky claim that Idt scum would go for- unless it were given to them.” Y’know analyzing the incentives instead of just saying I trust it and then justifying it.

Did not even consider the idea of a fake role claim. I’ve been theorizing a fake character claim, and if that’s correct then scum could completely ignore the possibility of fake role claim.

I can't really fault you for REF. I did notice last game he sat back and was really quite passive. It was only during the final DP he got up and questioned my wagon. I think you were fairly obvious scum, but he also made your job a bit easier. With this game, hes also a bit passive. I don't have much to talk about him. I suppose he wants a Kohai lynch and hasn't really said why. I get why you say I'm scummy lol. He hasn't said much. Null for me.

I don’t have a problem with this.

Kohai is someone I will believe. Its not like a miller who might trouble town the entire game, with proper gameplay, Kohai might never get a single town vote on him the entire game. We don't need to immediately buy his claim, but should the need arrive, we have flips to check him on. Hes more than a lean town for me.

How does getting a few more flips make Kohai townier or scummier? Why wait to read him? Am I not understanding something about your stance on Kohai here? @Shining

Wryly(/Wylted) just popped in and I think it might be a mistake letting them pass by thinking about it now. Wryly just popped in, softed their character and basically has done nothing else. Its still early for Wryly, but I will keep an eye on them for now. Not their fault Wylted was inactive fwiw.

I felt this was bad logic- Wryly had only just popped in- give her time to do something useful before posting this! Again, just feels like a forced read.

I typed that before I saw Wryly's new posts. The new posts were pretty good. They are getting to a lean town for me

I will acknowledge and give credit to this, however

Bro I just posted before finishing my iso fml

im not even sure if I hard scumread Shining yet that’s just my thoughts on some early posts of his

I have a had a light Sus on Shining all game long though

I no point have I townread him.

so there’s no sudden distance. It’s either all game long or not at all

Pinging on you 376 cause I wanted your input on something specific there

I may ping you for more

I am using my ability, by the way. So if you want someone lynched, do a good job convincing me.

Nothing else specifically struck me as towny or scummy for the rest of DP1

Or at the start of DP2

Pretty odd claim. I really find it hard to accept his play this past DP. I think Mharman already pointed this out but it really was odd that hes bouncing back and forth how reliable his claim is. I can't believe Vader would say his role is 100% reliable and would also give the number of scum on the Rex lynch. His role is busted. Even without Pie, I don't know he expected mafia to win this. Hes lean scum for me

Yeah Magoroth has been weird about his role. As for the modpsych, I found exactly one game of Vader’s in the past where he has a sensor. I don’t hate the logic but it ends up being partially wrong. Still, no problems here.

THOTH

Thoth is also playing bizarrely. When he said hes confident WF is scum, he proceeds to afk for hours after numerous attempts to explain and only then gives a fairly contrived scumtell WF supposedly created. WF might actually be scum, but I really don't like how he tried to hide it. Thoth also explains that WF made the same tell as town, so how reliable is it even?

This frustration is understandable. 

Whiteflame has been afk all game. I remember him being more active and while he never really drove town like Pie does, he does help town when he can. Maybe hes busy from the holidays, but its frustrating because its making me scum read him, especially when Thoth and Magoroth are sussing him.

Eh. This read feels off- if Whiteflame helps town when he can there’s no reason to believe he isn’t doing that this game and is simply busy.

Mharman claim stands out to me because while I'll behavior read him as town, he claim as vanilla stand out because counting him, we had 3 vanilla like roles (Hated, bleeder and now vanilla). I could buy it, but its worth taking into consideration.

Feels hedgey. And I don’t see how a few low power roles are a conflict with vanilla.

I'm not gonna believe it til I see it. I'm the Roleblocker. My justification has a lot of football shit I don't understand, but the gist I got is that someone eliminated the Bears from playoffs and kicked them from NFC North. idk

there’s been a few town roleblockers recently so it’s plausible??? Not in any of Vader’s games that I saw, although I’ll have to double check. Justification makes sense cause I know what game he’s talking about. I would have expected a blocked field goal kick to be roleblocked though. Didn’t someone claim that? Feels genuine and towny the way he said it though.

Final thing: There’s a lot of posts I didn’t include here because they weren’t anything special individually; but, collectively they might mean something. Stuff like “you guys can figure that out” and “just narrow things down so we can move on.” Hard to explain, but they all vibe towny. And he’s made so many of them.

So the question is: Does the occasional bad logic and a theory about character fake claims trump all the posts he made that just sit well with me? Well, towny vibe posts can be faked, and towniest can have bad logic. But a few of these reads I think he should know better, and while fake role claims for mafia is possible, I see a lot pointing me in the direction of character claims, and a few of my thoughts on him.

So Shining kinda just stays where I had him last DP: Slightly scummy and floating around. But that’s not exactly a red ink sign telling me to lynch him. I think there’s better options.

Bruh

I’ll pick this up in the morning

So I checked Vader’s games. This would be the first instance of a town roleblocker in his games, but town redirectors are actually quite common in his games.

So I think it’s plausible at least.

So I checked Vader’s games. This would be the first instance of a town roleblocker in his games, but town redirectors are actually quite common in his games.

So I think it’s plausible at least.

Double post is crazy

Good night

How does getting a few more flips make Kohai townier or scummier? Why wait to read him? Am I not understanding something about your stance on Kohai here?

I have played too many games where we just let mafia pull a fairly risky gambit and let them coast into Endgame unchallenged. I don't remember when I posted that but Kohai is 100% town. By behavior or what have you. At the end if DP1 I considered Kohai a lean town and now hes strong town. I suppose I am noncommital when it comes to reading people.

Btw, I thought I could force a lynch if we VTNL’d. I asked Vader and he said no

There’s nothing AI, Shining, about Thoth’s gambit or even his retraction. It’s neither Town nor Scum, both alignments would retract under the circumstances Thoth found himself in.

Thoth, were you looking for something specific? Did you find any telling information from your gambit?