Andor Mafia DP2

Character justification for Even Night Vigilante?

Technically? Anyway, sounds like good-ish news, depending on the details

They require me using my roles correctly which is why I say technically, so I have to lock in this night phase.

That bad? Lol.

I mean, he immediately died as soon as you subbed in, so it's not like you would've had to put up with him long. I have no idea if you would've even had time to enter scum chat, discover he was going to fake claim Strengthener, and stop him from doing it. Probably not; the heat was on him and he was already at L-1.

Yeah but he was already at l-1 and I immediately sussed his role claim based on one of my roles before whiteflame even hammered. Not that I have never bussed or am opposed to it, but there was no reason for me to bus him since it was a mechanical read based on his claim, not really based on behavior at that point. If it were a planned bus you'd think I would have more going against him than just being suspicious of his role claim. As to the "really" comment, I quit all the time as scum if the odds are against me. If I have to get 3 mislynches, MAYBE i'll stick through with it if I feel I have a really solid claim to let me skate through, definitely not a JOAT claim when theres already a flipped inventor though lol. I quit as scum in Suikoden mafia because I needed like 5 mislynches and was in the POE and thoth got killed early because he ignored my advice and claimed leprechaun. I quit in supas sopranos mafia and basically stopped posting after it was clear I was indicated by results that we had 0 counters to. I have quit a few more times than that but usually only if I lose my scum mate very early or there is balance issues that make the game such an uphill battle and likely impossible that its not even worth the effort to play. I am not ashamed of it, I just blame the mod and move on. But yeah if kohai was my scum partner and pulled that, even if I did have the motivation to keep playing, I wouldn't be this active and interested in the game still, that would have taken a lot of the wind from my sails.

When I first started playing mafia you were sold to me as a known risk taker, hence my speculation. If I was misled, sorry. Not sure what you mean by theme analysis since the theme was confirmed by Savant.

This is a misconception that thoth also was led to believe when we play scum together. I am down to take risks, but I take calculated risks, risks that have huge payouts. I don't take risks that are likely to just fuck me over and give me little value, like the JOAT claim does. I can give you an example; In caseys Russian mafia I claimed faked dreamer results early dp2 and gambled majorly that I wasn't visited by anyone which would have invalidated my results and meant I was lying. The risk here was that I was actually visited and if I had been this would backfire majorly. The reward was that I ended up getting three mislynches from my results and won the game, a game that was heavily balanced towards town numbers wise. Me and whiteflame also took a big risk in killing pie in ERBOH mafia where we had assumed pie was hinting bulletproof. We were banking on him bluffing to avoid being killed and we shot him anyway. We got extremely lucky that he was an even night bulletproof, but it was another big risk with a big payoff. Anyways, those are the types of risks I take. I don't take risks that have little payoff and fuck me anyways.. Like what is the benefit of claiming JOAT here? I am still in the POE and am unconfirmed, and if I don't use my roles correctly there is a chance I never get confirmed. I would say it is just straight up dumb to claim JOAT as scum here and I would be heavily banking on WIFOM to save my ass if I am. Considering I have been widely scum read as town in the last 2 games I have played here, I just wouldn't do that here if I was actually scum.

 a spymaster is a great character to make a JOAT, too. Is that his justification?

I wouldn't say that I have a justification, or a link that puts my role to my character, just a short description of who I am and then immediately followed by what my role is. My PM actually doesn't mention being a spymaster, just that im an organizer and leader of a rebellion and have a lot of skills and have to adapt to survive. Which I guess could technically be the link

I didn't say it's a strong reason to townread me, I said it's a strong reason to townread her. Even if I'm lying, I'm scum and she's still town.

Yeah at this point I doubt anyone is questioning wryly is town. Solid claim character and role wise. Unless it was a mod provided fake claim, and I would only consider that in a MYLO situation as she probably shouldn't live that long.

Justification for being Vigilante is just that I fight against the Empire and some people don't agree with my methods. There's no justification specifically for being even-night.

Will take those points into consideration

If we mislynch here and Thoth also vigs a townie tonight -- and the NK succeeds -- we're at MYLO tomorrow, or else I would just say let's lynch MAGO right now to narrow the POE

Justification for being Vigilante is just that I fight against the Empire and some people don't agree with my methods. There's no justification specifically for being even-night.

Very plausible for Saw

I think wylted is town and scum probably won't kill him since, if he's town, they presumably buy the Martyr claim. I'm not guaranteed to hit scum if we mislynch and I shoot. It may be better for me to waive my ability.

If we mislynch here and Thoth also vigs a townie tonight -- and the NK succeeds -- we're at MYLO tomorrow, or else I would just say let's lynch MAGO right now to narrow the POE

Well I kind of like his restless spirit claim, I am not like majorly opposed to lynching him since he will be in the POE regardless and it would be better to kill him before lylo anyway since he can still vote there. That said I am still kind of leaning between wylted and whiteflame. I don't have strong behavioral read against whiteflame, but his role feels very "safe". As the last to claim I would have assumed he had a stronger or better reason for seeming to wait to out that. He can basically guess at peoples roles and pray he's correct, or just use it to test someones claim, its not the most powerful role and I just honestly don't get him waiting to claim that. But if I was leaning a certain way I would definitely say it's wylted over magorath.

why did I capitalize MAGO

I think my brain carried the caps over from MYLO

whiteflame is definitely in my POE, though if he's scum again I'm starting to believe the randomizer just really has it out for him. His role isn't confirmable and there is a possibility Savant didn't put Bix in the game. whiteflame was Kohai's hammer, but a bus there makes a lot of sense. The only sticking point is why whiteflame would let Kohai claim Strengthener.

I gotta hit the hay. Night, all

Would like to hear your thoughts on recent developments

i buy the vigilante claim, but want to c if it works, if it works and another kill doesn't happen and he claims he was the kill or something that wuld b strange but until that happens its likely if there is two night kills he isn't lying. ur probably in the clear as well as the bg. i guess i kind of am in agreement that its between whiteflame, lunatic, mago or wylted.

joat claim is basically the same thng as what rex flipped as and whiteflame doesnt have the strongest claim. i cant remember if iver ever seen a restless spirit, but its a unique role at least, if it is a fake claim its a creative one so props to him for that. wylteds role is basically pointless now tho so not opposed to lynching him

why did I capitalize MAGO

I think my brain carried the caps over from MYLO

Or possibly from MAGA

whiteflame is definitely in my POE, though if he's scum again I'm starting to believe the randomizer just really has it out for him. His role isn't confirmable and there is a possibility Savant didn't put Bix in the game. whiteflame was Kohai's hammer, but a bus there makes a lot of sense. The only sticking point is why whiteflame would let Kohai claim Strengthener.

Those are both strong points in favor of whiteflame. I really don't think whiteflame would be scum again after hitting scum so many times in a row but that is mostly mod psyche which is hit or miss. Savant hasn't really been around in the mafia community for a while though other than to update the leaderboard so there is a chance he just didn't about that, or put whiteflame as scum just to counter that logic, but thats kind of a stretch. Or he just rolled scum again and it really is that simple. But I kind of lean towards the "theres no way hes scum again" argument as well.

And I agree that I don't think whiteflame lets kohai claim that. Whiteflame gets cred for hammering him too, though scum whiteflame would certainly think that would buy him town cred, whiteflame hasn't actually tried using his hammer to gain town cred, so I like that as well.

I can see basically any of the other players okaying the strengthener claim though.

Anways, all this to say that I still don't scum read whiteflame, but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if you or him were scum, because apparently all the claims are strong, so someone with theme knowledge could be on the scum team. That or they were given really strong fake claims.

i buy the vigilante claim, but want to c if it works, if it works and another kill doesn't happen and he claims he was the kill or something that wuld b strange but until that happens its likely if there is two night kills he isn't lying.

I'm not sure what you mean by "he claims he was the kill", but Savant confirmed that my kill can go through even if I die. I guess it's possible that I could be roleblocked.

Or possibly from MAGA

bruh ive accidentally typed MAGA so many times when typing Mago, and had to go back and re write it

I really don't think whiteflame would be scum again after hitting scum so many times in a row but that is mostly mod psyche which is hit or miss.

I was about to copy-paste an encyclopedia entry on the gambler's fallacy, but I'm concerned that you think alignment has anything to do with modpsych. Ain't we randomizing out here?

I'm not sure what you mean by "he claims he was the kill", but Savant confirmed that my kill can go through even if I die. I guess it's possible that I could be roleblocked.

sorry i meant say there is only one kill tonight, and you claim it was you. that would be suspicious since we dont have anything that can protect against the other kill since wryly is bg and would die during her protect anyway

Savant said in the day 1 OP that there were no mod-provided fake-claims, only questions about characters and roles.

So right now I'd say our top priority is to figure out whether or not to use my kill, and, if so, where

I was about to copy-paste an encyclopedia entry on the gambler's fallacy, but I'm concerned that you think alignment has anything to do with modpsych. Ain't we randomizing out here?

If you read my post you would see that I am not basing my entire town read on mod psyche, just taking it into account. Whiteflame is still very much in the POE, and he's probably my second strongest lean behind wylted, albeit not for behavioral reasons. Also mods say they randomize, but I don't always believe that all the time. Like let's be real, there is certain players who get certain roles that I feel like a mod would go "Yeah, this person is gonna fuck this up" and maybe switch it up, or maybe give a role to a person they think would be good in that role. I've done it as mod, ngl, but at least I'll admit to it.

So right now I'd say our top priority is to figure out whether or not to use my kill, and, if so, where

My two sense would be to target anyone in the POE, and yeah idc if you target me, I get it. Pretty sure we win this one either way as long as we lynch and kill within me whiteflame wylted and MAGAroth, I feel pretty safe about you wryly and banana atm. There is a decent chance I can prove one of my roles tonight if I am good at predicting what scum will do, but we will see. Gonna have to reverse reverse reverse psychology the shit out of them

Savant said in the day 1 OP that there were no mod-provided fake-claims, only questions about characters and roles.

See im so good at reading things! I totally knew that, like for reals totally!

Anyways, that's a good reason to suspect the unconfirmed roles even more, meaning the POE is pretty strong here.

Dead

Kohai- Exmar Kloris- Chauffeur- Mafia - Lynched DP1

Rex- Wilmon Paak- Inventor (1x commuter, 1x tracker, 1x bomb) - Town- Killed NP1

Alive

Magoroth- Marva Andor- Restless Spirit (Post 111, 117 DP1)

Wylted- Kino Loy- Odd Night Martyr (Post 137, DP1. Post 173, DP2)

Lunatic- Luthen Rael- JOAT (1x Watcher, ???, ???, ???) (Post 221, DP1 Post 185, DP2)

Banana- Mon Mothma - Petitioner (Post 132, DP1, Post 20, 27 DP2)

Wryly- Casian Andor- 2x Bodyguard (Post 79, 84 DP2)

Whiteflame- Bix Caleen (Post 98 DP2)

Thoth- Saw Gerrera- 1x even night vigilante (Post 118, 131 DP2)

Updated claimslist

Gonna go ahead and seal my vote on Wylted. I've been feeling pretty strongly about this POE pool, and wylted has the least utility next to mago out of all the claims so far. If I cant get any support here I am down to switch to magoroth though. But we should probably get to making a decision by early tomorrow morning at the least to best appropriate our remaining time here.

vtl wylted

I think wylted is town and scum probably won't kill him since, if he's town, they presumably buy the Martyr claim. I'm not guaranteed to hit scum if we mislynch and I shoot. It may be better for me to waive my ability.

Wasn't the main reason you were townreading wylted because he was also even night? If so did you not see that he claimed he lied and is odd night? Does that make any difference to you or are you town reading him for different reasons?

Also do not forfeit your night kill, we need to confirm you officially for you not to be in this POE. Also we can afford a mis vig after yesterday. Just shoot in between me, whtieflame, wylted or mago and you should be well justified for any of those kills.

tbh I am really only placing any town read on you on the assumption your role is actually a vig. Your vote on banana was sus af and your constant unexplained town reading of wylted is a bit baffling.

Wasn't the main reason you were townreading wylted because he was also even night? If so did you not see that he claimed he lied and is odd night? Does that make any difference to you or are you town reading him for different reasons?

My main reason for townreading him is that his ability could redo the mislynch math so that, in some possibilities for how the game could play out from the start, my kill would not cost town a mislynch. Whether it's odd or even night is irrelevant.

I was pretty sure from the start that Savant put something into the game to 'counteract' my ability, so to speak. When wylted claimed, I knew that was his ability

My main reason for townreading him is that his ability could redo the mislynch math so that, in some possibilities for how the game could play out from the start, my kill would not cost town a mislynch. Whether it's odd or even night is irrelevant.

I was pretty sure from the start that Savant put something into the game to 'counteract' my ability, so to speak. When wylted claimed, I knew that was his ability

There is a protection role and a busdriver both presuambly to counter a vig.