Andor Mafia DP3

I dont think we are in lylo yet man, we still have two mislynches til we lose

Given that we know there’s one scum left and there are 5 of us, I agree, we aren’t at LYLO, since we should be at 4-1. We could have been at MYLO if both scum and Thoth had killed separate targets, since that would have put us at 3-1.

It's plausible that scum waived to incriminate Thoth, though whether they would do that when it gives town a whole extra day phase is something I need to think more on.

They could also have just targeted Magoroth right along with Thoth, though that's questionable given the Restless Spirit role. They'd have to be pretty sure that Mago would vote in a way that helps them to go to that extent.

It's also possible Thoth is scum, has no night vig, and NK'd Mago so he could push through the argument that he did use it but scum is conspiring to foil his role confirmation. I hesitate to believe that, though. Thoth was pretty firm that wylted was town even when the tide of the vote was going against wylted, and he was the second person to vote Kohai, fairly early in the DP.

It would essentially just be a fake claim to cover for an NK. The Even Night aspect gave him a reprieve from proving his role NP1 and will give him another NP3, so we'd only have to buy it for NP2. On townreading Wylted, I get your point, but that's a WIFOM argument. It would not be a first for many of us, myself included, to play as scum by strongly townreading another player who others were sussing. As for VTLing Kohai, it's practically a given at this point that someone bussed him, just a question of when and how much.

Lunatic and whiteflame's roles remain unconfirmed and they are very much in the POE. I am putting banana aside for now. I agree with Lunatic that Chauffeur and Petitioner seem like a weak scum team -- especially considering that would mean town was loaded with an Inventor, day cop, Bodyguard, JOAT, Night Vig, Dead Voter, and Martyr -- unless Banana is a JOAT, and we can still verify that her Petitioner wasn't a 1x.

I think it's fair to have us both in POE for obvious reasons. I'm more skeptical of setting Banana aside. It would not be a first for a mod to give scum a very confirmable role just to ensure they get towncred. It's odd enough that I don't think it's the likeliest explanation, but I can't rule her out yet. She could still have multiple roles we're unaware of.

In Lunatic's case, he may have just been too late to stop the claim, as I've said before; it happened fast after he subbed in. He's marshaled some arguments against this, but they amount to some WIFOM and a few relevant points -- namely that it's a very silly scum claim that he's going to struggle to even confirm. And indeed he watched only himself and roleblocked a dead man. JOAT and Inventor remain an eyebrow-raising combo.

The main argument in Luna's favor for me is that he's claimed Luthen. I can't say the JOAT does much to move the needle and I see your point on that.

In whiteflame's case, maybe I'm approaching this wrong -- maybe he saw Kohai's demise was inevitable and even advised him to claim Strengthener so he could farm some towncred with a quick hammer. I have to imagine scum!whiteflame cringing when he saw Kohai's "haha I'm scum come in wolf chat Mago" jokes, though.

I mean, it's WIFOM all the way down with Kohai. It would be a new low for me as scum to actively tell my partner to flame out like that, but I suppose anything's possible.

I will be going to bed soon also have the ufc fights later so I might not post until late late

I am leaning thoth atm. The more I think about whiteflame the more I town read him. Could be wryly, but unless she guessed the main character wasnt in the game I doubt it. I doubt banana based on her role. I think it really is just that easy and its Thoth. But I am in no rush here.

They could also have just targeted Magoroth right along with Thoth, though that's questionable given the Restless Spirit role. They'd have to be pretty sure that Mago would vote in a way that helps them to go to that extent.

He was a mislynch target, so I'll argue they had slim reason to NK him other than to incriminate Thoth or for Thoth to mount his "I did nightvig!" defense. As for Mago's vote, either they keep him alive and he lives to vote on LYLO, or they kill him and he still votes in LYLO. There was no way to remove his voting power, just to remove him from counting toward parity.

It would essentially just be a fake claim to cover for an NK. The Even Night aspect gave him a reprieve from proving his role NP1 and will give him another NP3, so we'd only have to buy it for NP2. On townreading Wylted, I get your point, but that's a WIFOM argument. It would not be a first for many of us, myself included, to play as scum by strongly townreading another player who others were sussing. As for VTLing Kohai, it's practically a given at this point that someone bussed him, just a question of when and how much.

My scant scum experience does limit my analyses in a lot of ways, so your point about pretending to townread in the POE is noted. You could argue the even night aspect gives scum some reprieve, yes, but I do think his Even Night Vigilante receives some support from wylted's Odd Night Martyr. As for bussing, Thoth was the second to vote Kohai after Rex, which is an early-ish bus -- unless he was simply busy for the rest of the day phase, which is possible.

I think it's fair to have us both in POE for obvious reasons. I'm more skeptical of setting Banana aside. It would not be a first for a mod to give scum a very confirmable role just to ensure they get towncred. It's odd enough that I don't think it's the likeliest explanation, but I can't rule her out yet. She could still have multiple roles we're unaware of.

Her role seems to be basically a Popularizer, so we should just decide on someone for her to Popularize to prove she's not a JOAT. Unless JOATs are sometimes given 2x's in their utility belts, which I've never seen.

The main argument in Luna's favor for me is that he's claimed Luthen. I can't say the JOAT does much to move the needle and I see your point on that.

Luthen, Bix, Mon Mothma, and Saw Gerrera are all solid character claims.

I mean, it's WIFOM all the way down with Kohai. It would be a new low for me as scum to actively tell my partner to flame out like that, but I suppose anything's possible.

Nothing low about it if it cinches a win for the scum team.

Would like to know your opinions on town having both an Inventor and a JOAT

Would also like your reads on whiteflame

He was a mislynch target, so I'll argue they had slim reason to NK him other than to incriminate Thoth or for Thoth to mount his "I did nightvig!" defense. As for Mago's vote, either they keep him alive and he lives to vote on LYLO, or they kill him and he still votes in LYLO. There was no way to remove his voting power, just to remove him from counting toward parity.

Fair points. I can see a reason in there for why scum might not have wanted Mago to survive past last DP. His vote should only last through this DP.

You could argue the even night aspect gives scum some reprieve, yes, but I do think his Even Night Vigilante receives some support from wylted's Odd Night Martyr. As for bussing, Thoth was the second to vote Kohai after Rex, which is an early-ish bus -- unless he was simply busy for the rest of the day phase, which is possible.

Except that Thoth claimed his was Even Night after Wylted claimed his role. His claim supported Wylted’s, not so much the other way around beyond the fact that they claimed different nights. He would have had to start bussing pretty early.

Her role seems to be basically a Popularizer, so we should just decide on someone for her to Popularize to prove she's not a JOAT. Unless JOATs are sometimes given 2x's in their utility belts, which I've never seen.

Wouldn't be a first, I’ve done it in my games, but I take your point.

Luthen, Bix, Mon Mothma, and Saw Gerrera are all solid character claims.

I agree, though I think Luthen’s more central to Andor’s plot.

Nothing low about it if it cinches a win for the scum team.

Can’t say I’ve ever told my partner to bus himself, but I guess there has to be a first time for everything.

Decent point that Thoth claimed after wylted, but I sort of just meant an even night role makes sense if Savant also supplied an odd night role.

Lunatic is clearly leaning Thoth. Are you also leaning that way, then?

Decent point that Thoth claimed after wylted, but I sort of just meant an even night role makes sense if Savant also supplied an odd night role. 

There’s a symmetry to it, but the balance is mainly a modpsych question. I can see the case for it, but it’s a mechanical implication at best.

Lunatic is clearly leaning Thoth. Are you also leaning that way, then?

I’d say both of them have the same problem I do: a lack of mechanical support for our claims. That’s what you (being the only protective role and confirmed by my role) and Banana (having confirmed her role) have over us. I tend to focus most on mechanical confirmation, especially in the absence of strong behavioral information. Thoth having a vote up early on Kohai is a point in his favor. Lunatic claiming a more centrally important character much earlier than Thoth is a point in his. Maybe Luna’s third role could confirm him, though he hasn’t suggested that yet. Both say they targeted Magoroth, too. So the long and short of it is that I’m still deciding, though I was initially leaning Thoth.

. Maybe Luna’s third role could confirm him, though he hasn’t suggested that yet

It can confirm me, again, requires me to use it properly however. I have been hesitant to claim the last one because it would potentially implicate someone else and I don't want anyone scum reading them for that reason.

It can confirm me, again, requires me to use it properly however. I have been hesitant to claim the last one because it would potentially implicate someone else and I don't want anyone scum reading them for that reason.

Color me intrigued

I need you to read that in Tim Curry's voice

Sorry, specifically Tim Curry in Rocky Horror

I don’t think I know that reference lol

Well I’ll go ahead and claim because I’m doing the math and I think the game is solvable. I am a 1x bulletproof. Didn’t want this to implicate wryly because of the logic that she was the only protection role, but I honestly don’t think bulletproof would be the only protective role in the game. Plus her having the main character looks very good unless she just straight up guessed the main character is in the game.

Also initially I was told the bulletproof was passive which is why I watched myself thinking I would be night killed and survive and see the culprit. Later on savant told me that I had to activate it specifically so yeah if I had known that I wouldn’t have used the watcher that way but oh well.

Anyways how confident are you that scum is me or Thoth? I’d almost be confident enough to bet the game that wryly and banana are town. Whiteflame is probably town but has the most room for error I guess. I’d say you can just lynch both of us in either order and win here, but if you end up having second thoughts on wryly banana or Whiteflame being town it will backfire.

I am asking savant if we make it to a 1 v 1 scenario with one scum and one town if magos vote keeps the game alive. In theory it does and if that’s the case I don’t think it’s even possible to lose here.

For that scenario to be possible there would have to be a no lynch I believe

savant just confirmed that the 1 v 1 is still valid with magos vote.

So yeah you can just vote me or Thoth here whoever you think is scummier, and either end the game in the next phase or no lynch and do the 1 v 1 scenario to be safe. Theres always the possibility Whiteflame is scum so no lynching would potentially eliminate that possibility next day phase

Who did you target with your role last day phase and who are you targeting this day phase?

So it wasn't listed in your role PM as 1x Watcher, 1x Roleblocker, 1x Bulletproof? It was just the first two and then BP as a passive?

savant just confirmed that the 1 v 1 is still valid with magos vote.

So yeah you can just vote me or Thoth here whoever you think is scummier, and either end the game in the next phase or no lynch and do the 1 v 1 scenario to be safe. Theres always the possibility Whiteflame is scum so no lynching would potentially eliminate that possibility next day phase

If that's the case, then the Restless Spirit will continue to last into later DPs and count towards parity. I'll have to ask Savant about that, but if it's true, then that's a very different Restless Spirit than I've ever encountered, but assuming that's the case, a no lynch is not a possible outcome for a DP, since it said in the OP that we have to lynch every DP or the DP will not end. So if we can somehow reach 1v1, it won't be through a NL.

Who did you target with your role last day phase and who are you targeting this day phase?

I did say I targeted Casey last DP and I got a positive result, so Casey's role is the BG. I haven't used it yet this DP since it seemed kind of pointless.

Already asked Savant, he confirmed

Already asked Savant, he confirmed

Yeah, he just confirmed to me as well. It's a broken role, but I'll take it.

I did say I targeted Casey last DP and I got a positive result, so Casey's role is the BG. I haven't used it yet this DP since it seemed kind of pointless.

I thought you said you used it dp1 on castin. I know you mean her not Casey lol.

so if not who did you target night one? Also how is using it pointless? You can confirm someone can’t you? Or am i not understanding your role?

I thought you said you used it dp1 on castin. I know you mean her not Casey lol.

so if not who did you target night one? Also how is using it pointless? You can confirm someone can’t you? Or am i not understanding your role?

Yeah, I'm losing steam a bit tonight, my bad. I used it DP1 on Thoth, got a negative result, and used it on Wryly DP2 after she claimed and got a positive result. I can re-use it on someone else, but all it would do is confirm that they are not the BG.

I thought you could pick a new role from the list each time you select a target

It really never occurred to me that Mago's vote would count toward parity; that's... shocking to me, frankly. We'll never start a day phase at 1v1 so it's moot, but still.

Trying to make my tired brain process this. If we follow Lunatic's plan, we get two shots to guess right. Problematic, because no one is exactly town locked for me right now. We would have to whittle this down to two. Really want to townread Lunatic for suggesting putting himself on the chopping block, this would have to be a hell of a bluff

Would you be game for Lunatic's plan

I picked a role at the start of the game and I can select a different target each DP and ask whether they are that role. I don't get to change my selection of role, just the player I choose.

Lol, I really misunderstood that. That's weaker than I thought and is more believable.

Really want to hear from Banana and Thoth here

This DP is moving slower than I'd like. wylted is probably screaming at us from the peanut gallery

Lol, I really misunderstood that. That's weaker than I thought and is more believable.

I had to ask a lot of questions before I realized I'd had the wrong impression of how it worked for a while, so I get it.

Really want to hear from Banana and Thoth here

Their absence is pretty confounding. Tagging them both.

This DP is moving slower than I'd like. wylted is probably screaming at us from the peanut gallery

No doubt. Still, we've got just under 3 days to do all this, and I think as long as we have at least a couple of days for the next DP, we should be good. I was hoping to have the lynch figured out before I go to bed tonight, not sure if that will happen.