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Solo Leveling DP 5

Started by Mikal

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ISO #61 •••
--> @ILikePie5

My worry is the SJW is a TP who can choose to side with scum, not that he was given as a fake claim.

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ISO #62 •••
--> @RexFavilla
My worry is the SJW is a TP who can choose to side with scum, not that he was given as a fake claim.


It’s possible, but that still leaves 2 scum out there. WF worst case has shown a willingness to work with town. It’s just unfortunate that town is plagued by inactivity

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ISO #63 •••

I know who it is and the result but we are waiting on some answers from Mikal. Once we have them we may be able to confirm two players.

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ISO #64 •••
--> @RexFavilla
I know who it is and the result but we are waiting on some answers from Mikal. Once we have them we may be able to confirm two players.


As scum or town?

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ISO #65 •••
--> @RexFavilla

Can u answer my question about Awesome

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ISO #66 •••
--> @ILikePie5
I mean did u read?

?

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ISO #67 •••
--> @ILikePie5

#48


I'm about to move houses (again). I'm going to try to skim through some isos before work and start fresh on my reads. There are a few details in particular I want to look at pertaining to the order certain things happened.

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ISO #68 •••

Apologies for the delay, it's been a busy morning and we actually have something legitimately baffling in the lab. Excited to find out what it is.


Anyway, as I said yesterday (and as Pie basically reiterated this morning), I'm expanding my POE and reconsidering a larger set of players this DP. I'm going to give some early thoughts now, and expand on them as discussion ramps up.


If Wryly is scum, then everything involving the specifics of her investigations yesterday and the kinds of results she gets was a lie and that seems like a massive stretch. Wryly, if this was you just actively gaslighting town for like half a DP, well played, but if there's anyone aside from Pie I can write off as almost certainly town, it's you.


Mag1c is still up in the air. He's obviously in our Guild and could be scum, but I doubt it for a couple of reasons that I can't reveal out here. The long story short is I have more reason to townread him than the remaining 5 players, so for the moment at least, he's out of my POE with a chance to move back in.


And that, unfortunately, still leaves 5 players among whom just 2 are scum.


I really want to trust Luna's read on REF, but that's so far the strongest reason I have to townread him and I can't say it's strong enough at this point to keep him out of POE. The role itself is interesting enough that I have trouble believing it's a fake claim, so he's still slight town to me, but only just.


Kohai is a bit of an odd duck. I have a little more reason to townread him than not, but I'll have to go back through his posts and see if that holds up. Didn't like him early in the game, but he's given me more reason to townread him as the game has gone on. Maybe that's just from my experience with him as scum coloring my opinion.


And that leaves three.


Banana and Awesome are the obvious ones, I don't think any of us have strong reasons to buy their claims at this point. I think Awesome's claim looks like something Mikal would make up, but that's about the best I can say about him. And Banana was on the verge of being lynched last DP in direct opposition to Shining who has flipped town, so she's bound to look scummy at this point.


Mestari is tricky. I think a lot of people are quick to write him off as town because he was very effectively scum hunting and helped take down both Thoth and Alyssa. In almost any other game, I would agree and view him as almost certainly town. But this isn't a usual game. The activation of the Ant King mid-game makes me question whether scum have a player who is/was separate from the main scum team and sees a benefit in taking down much of the scum team to boot. The Ant King activated only after the Ant Queen was lynched, so yes, I could see that as either part of their wincon or just a way to take over and run the team on their own. Thoth and Alyssa would probably have flamed out without his help, so I can absolutely see wanting to change things up to put both himself and the remaining member of the scum team in better position. This theory is not a reason to outright scumread him, but it colors my perspective of behaviors I was reading as townie for much of the early game.

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ISO #69 •••

I think if we get it down to one scum, we should have an easier path.


I was right in the fact that Vader was the logical NK last night, and the fact it don’t happen implicates Banana.


Even if there was a Bus Driver, they would have to Bus Driver Banana and Vader. Vader makes sense, dunno about Banana

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ISO #70 •••
--> @whiteflame
Mestari is tricky. I think a lot of people are quick to write him off as town because he was very effectively scum hunting and helped take down both Thoth and Alyssa. In almost any other game, I would agree and view him as almost certainly town. But this isn't a usual game. The activation of the Ant King mid-game makes me question whether scum have a player who is/was separate from the main scum team and sees a benefit in taking down much of the scum team to boot. The Ant King activated only after the Ant Queen was lynched, so yes, I could see that as either part of their wincon or just a way to take over and run the team on their own. Thoth and Alyssa would probably have flamed out without his help, so I can absolutely see wanting to change things up to put both himself and the remaining member of the scum team in better position. This theory is not a reason to outright scumread him, but it colors my perspective of behaviors I was reading as townie for much of the early game.


I’ll second this argument. A Lone Wolf who has no idea who his scum partners are makes sense to me. It’s the perfect cover.

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ISO #71 •••
--> @Banana
funny, i didnt even say this when i was right about helz, but ppl still told me it was 'tmi' or 'farming town cred', but i bet u get a pass for it lol


hunnee, don't be mad u couldn't pull it off


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ISO #72 •••
--> @ILikePie5
Can u answer my question about Awesome
As scum or town?


no comment ho

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ISO #73 •••
--> @RexFavilla

Mikal has been on bruh

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ISO #74 •••
--> @RexFavilla

Bruh at this point u need to reveal everything. You realize yall could’ve recruited scum Awesome lol

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ISO #75 •••

The thing about the lone wolf argument is that I was still the one who caught a legitimate scum slip leading to the lynching of two mafia members. Even if I'm a lone wolf who doesn't know who his partners are, I still have reason not to point out a very real slip that I have reason to believe will lead to actual lynchings of actual mafia.


Further, the rest of the Mafia typically knows who the lone wolf is, so I still wouldn't be described as a fear kill target.

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ISO #76 •••

Was Whiteflame in the guild DP3?

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ISO #77 •••
--> @Mestari
Was Whiteflame in the guild DP3?


Yes

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ISO #78 •••
--> @ILikePie5
Yes


Was there any discussion in guild chat about the Mod Narrative event that led to Wylted's death prior to Wylted challenging the king and dying?

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ISO #79 •••
--> @ILikePie5

Just PMd him asking for answers.

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ISO #80 •••

OKAY I have answers.


We recruited Awesome.


Wryly basically said she was going to investigate but not who and had Awesome strengthen her. He says he did. I confirmed to Mikal that if a non-strengthened cop targeted me, they would get a guilty, and if a strengthened cop targeted me, they would get an innocent. Wryly got an innocent on me. This was all her plan, literally nobody knew who she was targeting. So, If Wryly is the town cop (which everyone accepts as far as I know) it proves that I am town and that Awesome is a strengthener and strengthened Wryly instead of doing something else. There was no way to bus drive the targets as they had no way to know it was me. We did mention Banana as a possible investigative target, so there is the small possibility that it's an Awesome/Banana scum team and they have a redirector and manipulated the result to get a false inno because they thought Banana would be investigated, but unless Banana flips scum Awesome is basically town.

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ISO #81 •••
--> @RexFavilla

So awesome was the NP3 recruit?

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ISO #82 •••
--> @Mestari

Yes, he accepted and we had him lie and say he rejected so we could get a strengthened cop off without scum catching on. I think Wryly had this planned out ahead of time and didn't tell us but she can take credit for the big-brained play if she wants when she shows up.

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ISO #83 •••

Cool.

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ISO #84 •••

DP1 140 is a weird post if coming from s!Kohai. How much does Kohai communicate with teammates in scum chat prior to engaging in day chat?


DP1 202


Vote Count




Mestari 3/9 - Alyssa, Mestari, Thoth


Mag1cman 2/9 - Casey_Risk, Rex


Kohai 3/9 - Mag1cman, ILikePie5, wylted


_____


Given that I believe magic is town because of the NP1 poison, I'm interested in why the Kohai wagon didn't take off here if they are town.


Active players after this point include myself, Lunatic, Wyrly, Whiteflame, and Thoth. Whiteflame not helping get the Kohai wagon rolling looks town if Kohai is town, because it would be an easy push for scum, or looks scum if Kohai is scum.


I have a lot more rereading to do but I have to get ready for work.

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ISO #85 •••

My current town pile is Pie, Wyrly, and Magic. Awesome I've said for a while has to lean town with how much sense their role makes structurally within the setup. I'm assuming all of these players are town in my reread.


Everyone else I'm working from ground up as null reads.

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ISO #86 •••

Eh, a little more while I have a few short minutes.


DP1 341 could be a catch-up provided by scumchat.


Rex was early on the Thoth wagon, but still after I called out the slip.


It becomes harder to ask why the Kohai wagon didn't take off if he's town as I read on because between then and me catching Thoth's slip, almost nobody new joined in and posted, just Casey and Helz. It could be the case that it didn't take off because by the time mafia got involved, it was too late. That being said, both Alyssa and Thoth were around and neither jumped onto the Kohai wagon even though my wagon was clearly a meme wagon that would be easy to detach from.

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ISO #87 •••
--> @Mestari
The thing about the lone wolf argument is that I was still the one who caught a legitimate scum slip leading to the lynching of two mafia members. Even if I'm a lone wolf who doesn't know who his partners are, I still have reason not to point out a very real slip that I have reason to believe will lead to actual lynchings of actual mafia.


The theory goes that there was an incentive for the Lone Wolf to eliminate members of the scum team to power themselves up. That follows from the knowledge that the Ant King activated upon the death of the Ant Queen. So, yes, that would provide a reason for a member of the scum team to work against their partners, particularly if they have an independent wincon but also just if that is required for role activation. Plenty of others have suggested that my character has active incentive to work against the town wincon for my own personal benefit as SJW, so why is this so unlikely?


Further, the rest of the Mafia typically knows who the lone wolf is, so I still wouldn't be described as a fear kill target.


That's not how it's played out in the games where I've seen it. Typically, the Lone Wolf doesn't know who the rest of the scum team is, nor does the rest of the scum team know who they are. Maybe it's played differently where you've done it, but in the couple of games I've seen it on DART, it played with mutual unknowns.

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ISO #88 •••
--> @RexFavilla
OKAY I have answers.

We recruited Awesome.

Wryly basically said she was going to investigate but not who and had Awesome strengthen her. He says he did. I confirmed to Mikal that if a non-strengthened cop targeted me, they would get a guilty, and if a strengthened cop targeted me, they would get an innocent. Wryly got an innocent on me. This was all her plan, literally nobody knew who she was targeting. So, If Wryly is the town cop (which everyone accepts as far as I know) it proves that I am town and that Awesome is a strengthener and strengthened Wryly instead of doing something else. There was no way to bus drive the targets as they had no way to know it was me. We did mention Banana as a possible investigative target, so there is the small possibility that it's an Awesome/Banana scum team and they have a redirector and manipulated the result to get a false inno because they thought Banana would be investigated, but unless Banana flips scum Awesome is basically town.


I have questions, but I'll wait for Wryly to be on to discuss them in full.

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ISO #89 •••
Plenty of others have suggested that my character has active incentive to work against the town wincon for my own personal benefit as SJW, so why is this so unlikely?

So this begs the question, do you have a reason to work against the town for your own independent goals?


Your logic is predicated on the mafia structure mirroring the town structure.

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ISO #90 •••

I'm about to head out now. Something I would like help looking into while I'm at work... If Rex is town then there was no mole. If there was no mole, there is less reason for mafia to have framed Pie. I think it's worth looking into DP3 in particular with the stances people took WRT the guilty and the mole.

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