Amber Mafia

Town needs a train and counter train.

Concise focused posts.

We should stop treating an active game thread as a test thread. Its harmful to the game.

Its more likely than not that "Lord of Chaos" is inherited by another mafia if they are killed

For 3p thoughts-

Gunsmith- They won't out. A problem for town that can swing the game. Players should out if they were given a gun so we know they exist

Associate- Protective alignment with a target that could be town or scum. Evolves into jester

Ty'iga- Disguiser that pops after being killed. Everyone should post disguiser codes daily.

Sadist- Unlikely to be in the game. Roles too messy imo

Executioner- Hard anti town function (maybe rolled mafia?) Evolves into jester

3 mechanics hit on hammer functions and 1 for who is on a train for vote analysis.

Traitor is much more likely than not. We should watch for flagging

If Regent exists in game they should not reveal N1.

If Jailor exists in game players should reveal being jailed D2

Regent should only reveal knowing Jailor can protect and then open town.

Regent should also go heavy on verifying not disguised through codes.

Jailor should never claim for any reason. Unless Regent has revealed they should function as a role block/vig

A-Llewella wrote:

Town needs a train and counter train.

Concise focused posts.

This is something you consistently stated in the last game. While I see what you’re going for here, I wonder how realistic it is to pull this off in every game. It’s kind of rare when you get a 1v1 that completely splits the town up like that. If counter train means that the two people accusing each other both have wagons. If counter train means literally any other wagon then feel free to take the initiative in starting that. You still haven’t listed any reads.

Any day cycle ever where there is not a train and counter train town is absolutely failing. No exception ever.

They do not need to suspect etch-other. They only need to exist.

Executioner- Hard anti town function (maybe rolled mafia?) Evolves into jester

What do you mean maybe rolled mafia?

Can third parties joint win or does them winning usurp the win for themselves?

Any day cycle ever where there is not a train and counter train town is absolutely failing. No exception ever.

Not true.

They do not need to suspect etch-other. They only need to exist.

Set one up then. Be the change you want in the world.

Their target could be town or mafia.

3p should be able to win with town or mafia as long as conditions align.

Can third party roles like executioner target scum?

For all roles other than Sadist yes, joint winning is possible.

Sadist can only joint win with other third parties, like Executioner, Ty’iga, Jester or Associate.

A-Gerard wrote:

Can third party roles like executioner target scum?

Yes

I will say for a second time Jailor should never reveal. Take that shit to your death if Regent is alive. I think its highly likely they exist because game balance may not be possible without Regent/Jailor both existing.

If my math is correct we have roughly 17 hours left. We have a wagon on Brand. Where should we put the counter wagon?

Not sure yet. Finally had time to dig into the mech implications of the game.

A-Llewella wrote:

Not sure yet. Finally had time to dig into the mech implications of the game.

smh

I am seeing 31 hours btw

A-Llewella wrote:

I am seeing 31 hours btw

29 actually yeah bad math

A-Gerard wrote:

Last post for the night. I'm less concerned with Brand just outright calling for a mass claim and more with how he's chosen to defend it, which is in line with the arguments presented so far for lynching between the VTs we have so far (he's basically doubling down on that and hoping to get more VTs in that pool to consider). I get the point about the cryptography, just doesn't stand out to me as much.

Fair enough. Glad we got you in time for your reads, too bad that was basically all you were able to post today. Do you think you will be much more active tomorrow? I think I am gonna be talking to myself again all night and I am going crazy.

That is my intention. Don't think I'll have as busy of a day today at work, so I'll have the opportunity to post more. That being said, it is Shabbat and people shouldn't be expecting me to post much after work until later this evening.

A-Gerard wrote:

A few thoughts about your reads:

WRT the Llewella read, I am a bit surprised you and Oberon aren't really concerned about the strategy of not participating. I am wondering if it's a combination of two things. 1. Post traumatic mislynch disorder from Solo Leveling, and 2. Not knowing how to read them after only playing with them once.

On both counts I would say I at the very least understand. Here's the thing, strategically, this isn't good. I think we can agree on that. I offered them the option of posting multiple reads in single lines even if its a bit spammy. But I was ignored at every turn when I asked them about game direction and reads. So outside of it being just anti-town, or a bad strategy, how is what they are doing indicative of town alignment? I asked them directly to tell me why I should town read them and they basically told me I have no reason to, and that I should view them at best as a third party. This person is now DIRECTLY telling me not to town read them. This was not a vibe I got from them last game where they were bleeding town the entire game in the mason thread. On top of this person directly telling me they like to make ballsy plays as scum, it just gives me an immense amount of pause. And then they turn the conversation around on me despite giving them multiple outs to take the game in literally any other direction, they make it a 1 v 1 thing and basically say "How about I don't tell you shit because I don't trust you." As if there is 0 benefit in doing this for the sake of their own team, assuming they are town.

So you and oberon having a null on them pings me funny. While there isn't a metric ton of things to read into here, they have provided a considerable amount more than other players you have given stances on like bleys/oberon. I guess I think it would have been less awkward if you took any stance even a town read, but coming to a null stance makes me get tingles that you may be paired with this person, and trying to draw attention away from them by dismissing them as a null, and oberons stance of treating them like an inactive doesn't ease that suspicion.

TL;DR My question is do you think there is any readable behavior in Llewella, or do you truly, actually believe out of all of this individuals posts, they are just a complete null read?

I wouldn't say it's PTMD, more just hesitancy to scumread a strategy that we've already seen them deploy in the previous game. That's been my only experience with Llewella, and given that the behavior is largely consistent if more stand-offish and less cooperative, I struggle to put them in either camp. I believe I mentioned in my reads that Llewella is either town being anti-town or scum, and I know I mentioned later that I can see the case against them, I just can't decide if they're more likely to be one or the other. That indecision wouldn't prevent me from pursuing their lynch in the absence of a stronger scumread, though. Even if all they are is anti-town, it's still damaging to town.

WRT Caine, I'm confused how you arrived at null/slight town here.

"The early push to get him to claim and his response to it come off as pretty consistent with this normal play, even if I can't get out of my head that having to claim first makes it more likely he's going to just out as VT to avoid a CC."

This line specifically seems like you have more of a negative stance on the claim than a positive one, as the positive only says his response seems "consistent" and consistency for the most part is kind of NAI to a degree.

That was my knee-jerk response, mainly because it's not a CCable role. I'm still not happy with it, but that gut response has largely subsided the more I've read through the game and seen Caine's and a completely unrelated player's posts throughout the game so far. Long story short, based on my experience with him on a scum team, I'd expect more signs that he's scum by this point. Relenting to pressure to claim and giving a claim that comes off as "safe" isn't enough to counteract my behavioral read.

WRT Oberon also confused about the town read. A lot of that stems from the buddying bleys comment, and you thinking thats abnormal for them, but that doesn't explain why you think an abnormal approach being used = them being town. Usually straying from behaviors yields the opposite response. Maybe my paranoia about the shared Llewella null stance is seeping into my paranoia about your stance on oberon though, but if you are able to explain this one a bit further that would be cool, especially since this player has made an official stance against bleyse, so wondering if that effects your read on them at all.

This was mainly based on what I'd expect to see from this player and how carefully I think he'd play it as scum. That's WIFOM, but I don't have a lot else to go off of for Oberon's posts so far. That being said, his turn back against Bleys and statement about using the "inactivity rule" rather than his own reads as a basis for a lynch rubs me the wrong way. The former was particularly strange since I don't think you pointed to anything particularly striking about Bleys' behavior (I flagged the inconsistency too, but calling it a scum slip is a stretch), and the latter feels like an excuse to delay providing reads and to then push off on their importance after the fact. Change him to a null/slight scum.

I am good with the rest of the reads, and thanks for providing them.

Cool. Again, apologies for my lack of activity. Increased pressures at work and more to handle outside of it came at a bad time, but I'm aiming to step it up.

The mechanical analysis is cool and all, but I don't love the discussion of the need for a wagon and counter wagon just to not post a single read. We're 21 pages in and I get that your focus is more on the kinds of roles in the game and how they could play into it, but Gerard has asked multiple times for some reads from you and I'm mostly just seeing distractions instead.

I know it's been mentioned a few times and I'm a bit lost on the aim of these "disguiser codes" and how they'll function. If we're doing something like that, we need everyone onboard and clear on their purpose, so if someone could clarify, that would be great.

Gonna go through all my reads while I have an ounce of free time.

Bleys - Null. They haven’t given a whole lot to work with to be quite honest with you. They sort of faded away after that without much contribution. I don’t love that. If the poem Luna wrote is true, then they have to be scum. But I also doubt it too. I don’t want to get into Luna’s poem analysis due to game mechanics but I struggled with his lines here

Deidre - I think they are null. Nothing really stands out to me about the behavior and it seems like the norm for them, but always on alert with this player

Brand - I actually kind of think his paranoia and thought process is tow or from his point of view, but going at it the wrong way. But I think he is not as defensive when the pressure is on him compared to other games that I have seen. Kind of town read him

Gerard - I think behaviorally town from what I seen. The most active contributor to the game so far for what it’s worth. I felt like the OGI thing was weird to push on but then I think he’s had some valid posts and good logic per his meta. I am a bit concerned because my gut says something’s wrong but logically, don’t see a reason to scum read

Llewela - Considering this person is essentially revealed themselves, I have a slight FoS. I think there game they had last contrasts this one a bit more than usual. They had some very deep posts going deep into and I’m missing that depth that I get

Martin - Slight town. The pressure to claim instantly feels townie but the claim is a bit off. I like their behavior so far but something to monitor

Oberon & Flora - FoS. They are legit posting almost alike to this point. The same manner and in the same way. I really don’t understand the difference and I inherently FoS read that considering who these people could potentially be

Fiona - Not enough posts to make a decision/read

Random - Null same reason as Fiona

Caine - Null/slight FoS. They haven’t done much since the start of the DP and haven’t contributed to the page so far after night 1 when activity is low when I know they have been on

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (4/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Flora (p#533), A-Bleys (p#232), A-Martin (p#560)

A-Llewella (1/7): A-Brand (p#6)

A-Flora (1/7): A-Caine (p#290)

A-Bleys (1/7): A-Oberon (p#530)

A-Fiona (1/7): A-Gerard (p#334)

Not Voting (4): A-Deirdre, A-Fiona, A-Julian, A-Llewella (p#418)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 6 hours.

VTL: A-Llewella

At least for the time being, I'm fine putting my vote here in hopes that it will result in some reads. Still plenty of people who haven't posted them, but I need something more than mechanical insights and frustrations with the way we handle wagons from you.

A-Oberon wrote:

Real talk for 1 second: the inactive rule probably finds scum at a higher rate than using my reads.

What do you mean by this?

A-Gerard wrote:

What are your thoughts on Llewella? Both general thoughts and specifically about 398

I have my reads in #358 and nothing has changed from that. I don’t see any attempt to genuinely scum hunt. My personal belief is to treat this individual objectively and ignore all the WIFOM. Just cause he said he was going to be like this, doesn’t mean he’s town. He’s obviously smarter than that. If he wants to take the back seat and not do anything while being active, it’s just blatant manipulation and objectively likely to come from scum.