Amber Mafia - DP3

A-Llewella wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

I'm more focused on the necessity of jailor/regent both being in the game to balance the setup than why they shouldn't claim.

Well the game is difficult to balance with the role list. Jailor absolutely felt necessary. My bet was Regent+Jailor+Coroner/1 shot super cop.

With the lack of a real invest I felt that self confirming roles existed. Jailor was the only protective and also covered kills. Regent is the crier and had self confirming ability as well as had the ability to coordinating the town from a confirmed town voice without revealing. Those two made a lot of sense.

I am also personally surprised by how few PRs there are this game.

A-Caine wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

You don't get to decide who you are paired with, in my eyes, unfortunately. I see you being paired with both as real possibilities. Gerard even called out you being paired with Fiona in his will.

If I was mafia I’d always kill random over Gerard via my jailor read on them.

So the thing is, I think it's clear enough mafia was PR hunting with the Julian kill. Mafia doesn't know the sanitized role, but they certainly made the kill hoping it was a PR. Flora's will also indicates to me, at least, that Julian could be jailor. So while you could be hedging bets that Random is jailor, you could also be SvS setting up for scum to claim jailor, and then you two got cold feet later.

A-Bleys wrote:

A-Caine wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

You don't get to decide who you are paired with, in my eyes, unfortunately. I see you being paired with both as real possibilities. Gerard even called out you being paired with Fiona in his will.

If I was mafia I’d always kill random over Gerard via my jailor read on them.

So the thing is, I think it's clear enough mafia was PR hunting with the Julian kill. Mafia doesn't know the sanitized role, but they certainly made the kill hoping it was a PR. Flora's will also indicates to me, at least, that Julian could be jailor. So while you could be hedging bets that Random is jailor, you could also be SvS setting up for scum to claim jailor, and then you two got cold feet later.

Yeah it's pretty obvoius that mafia was PR hunting which means I would have killed Random - the very person I think is a PR. My behavoir and hints prove that I wasn't making this up.

A-Bleys wrote:

A-Deirdre wrote:

Honestly, I'm thinking I'll sleep on it. Been a long enough day already. I don't think Caine vs. Random is a TvT situation. For reasons I won't say, I don't think it's mutual bussing, either, so it's likely only one of them is scum. We've got a little over 24 hours left to figure this out, and I'd rather have everyone chime in at this point.

Given that we already have two votes up, one for each of them, I ask that everyone else please recognize that an additional vote puts either of them at L-2, affording scum an opportunity to get a quick lynch if the vote is on town. Please don't place a vote on either of them, even if you feel confident, before we get a chance to hash this out.

I'm in the middle of finishing my DP2 read and I've got my comments in the works on another tab. I'm looking at Random/Caine being SvS as a real possibility. I think it's important to discuss why you don't believe it is a mutual bussing.

Caine and Random my two biggest scumreads still, so the question of whether this is an SvS situation has crossed my mind repeatedly. The main thing holding me back from believing this is mutual bussing is that I just don't buy it from Caine, specifically. Random absolutely would, but speaking from personal experience, I don't think Caine shows this kind of dedicated attention to the task and makes it look this believable. Maybe my problem is just assuming that it's solely his work. I could see Random orchestrating the whole thing.

If I was mafia I’d always kill random over Gerard via my jailor read on them.

This doesn't make sense. First off, you could've just been lying about your read on Random as a plausible Jailor. Second, since it's basically been proven at this point that Julian was the Jailor, saying that you as scum would have continued to read Random that way is meaningless since you had information on his flip by the point that Gerard was NK'd. Even if scum weren't given that information, Gerard might have looked like a plausible Jailor before he was NK'd, hence why he was killed before me.

A-Deirdre wrote:

If I was mafia I’d always kill random over Gerard via my jailor read on them.

This doesn't make sense. First off, you could've just been lying about your read on Random as a plausible Jailor. .

Except I literally hinted to that both my behavior d2 with him being in my town core and when I hinted this day phase that I had a Jailor read on a player. This was before he claimed

A-Deirdre wrote:

If I was mafia I’d always kill random over Gerard via my jailor read on them.

This doesn't make sense. First off, you could've just been lying about your read on Random as a plausible Jailor. .

Except I literally hinted to that both my behavior d2 with him being in my town core and when I hinted this day phase that I had a Jailor read on a player. This was before he claimed

A-Deirdre wrote:

This doesn't make sense. First off, you could've just been lying about your read on Random as a plausible Jailor. Second, since it's basically been proven at this point that Julian was the Jailor, saying that you as scum would have continued to read Random that way is meaningless since you had information on his flip by the point that Gerard was NK'd. Even if scum weren't given that information, Gerard might have looked like a plausible Jailor before he was NK'd, hence why he was killed before me.

I actually believe that Mafia was considering that jailor could be alive. I do believe that's why you didn't die. That doesn't vindicate Caine however, as the Random = Jailor could be a pivot driven by either (1) Gerard being VT, or (2) Mafia deciding jailor is dead and considering a fake claim setup. I do think mafia would be interested in identifying the jailor more than town would.

Can you remind me where in D2 you had Random as Jailor?

Interesting.

Except I literally hinted to that both my behavior d2 with him being in my town core and when I hinted this day phase that I had a Jailor read on a player. This was before he claimed

I see a couple of townreads on him in DP2, but this DP is the first time you mentioned the reason being that you thought he was the Jailor. If I missed something, let me know.

Anyway the entirety of the transition on random D2 from Caine is 33 to 248.

Random went from null to town and the justification was the that Mafia wouldn't push a blackmail target. That is the same push Caine says this DP that mafia would make to protect a teammate.

Keep in mind that over the same period Gerard became a scum read for Caine. It seems to me they began to read Gerard as jailor and that's why Gerard died. The question becomes, do they hint that Random is jailor DP3 because they believe it (indicating that Random is town), or because at this point they think the Jailor is dead. Caine was really big on trying to get the Jailor to out early in the DP, which is very weird if they already think they know who the jailor is. It looks to me like they were trying to test the waters for a fake claim, and then I came in and ruined it by pointing out the jailor is probably already dead.

A-Deirdre wrote:

Except I literally hinted to that both my behavior d2 with him being in my town core and when I hinted this day phase that I had a Jailor read on a player. This was before he claimed

I see a couple of townreads on him in DP2, but this DP is the first time you mentioned the reason being that you thought he was the Jailor. If I missed something, let me know.

I obviously wouldn’t have outright claimed that D2. But look at my attitude and behavior around him. I was following him as I thought he was a TPR.

A-Bleys wrote:

A-Deirdre wrote:

This doesn't make sense. First off, you could've just been lying about your read on Random as a plausible Jailor. Second, since it's basically been proven at this point that Julian was the Jailor, saying that you as scum would have continued to read Random that way is meaningless since you had information on his flip by the point that Gerard was NK'd. Even if scum weren't given that information, Gerard might have looked like a plausible Jailor before he was NK'd, hence why he was killed before me.

I actually believe that Mafia was considering that jailor could be alive. I do believe that's why you didn't die. That doesn't vindicate Caine however, as the Random = Jailor could be a pivot driven by either (1) Gerard being VT, or (2) Mafia deciding jailor is dead and considering a fake claim setup. I do think mafia would be interested in identifying the jailor more than town would.

I've been assuming that scum either didn't know they'd killed the Jailor or believed there was another PR in the game. I know I'd be paranoid about people hiding PRs behind VT claims if I was in their shoes.

I obviously wouldn’t have outright claimed that D2. But look at my attitude and behavior around him. I was following him as I thought he was a TPR.

Where. Show me where you did this.

I've been assuming that scum either didn't know they'd killed the Jailor or believed there was another PR in the game. I know I'd be paranoid about people hiding PRs behind VT claims if I was in their shoes.

I've been working with the belief that they didn't originally know if they killed the jailor, but by DP3 they realized they probably have.

I'm having a hard time not reading Caine as Mafia at this point. The question is, who do we think is the best pairing?

Right now Llewella is my strongest independent town read and weakest pairing. Random is my strongest independent scum read. I need to look back over some of the wagons to decide whether Brand or Random makes more since as a partner, but right now I'm thinking it's Random.

I obviously wouldn’t have outright claimed that D2. But look at my attitude and behavior around him. I was following him as I thought he was a TPR.

I'm trying to do just that.

First time you mention him outside of posting vote results is #33, where you just put him in the pile of "need a re-read."

You respond to him on the choice of Julian as an NK in #46 and address a vote count issue in #120.

You push back on claiming who everyone is in #121 before just straight up saying who you are in #124.

You put him in your town pool based on "There’s a 0% chance he tries to ML someone who is dying anyway. I also don’t see any scum motivation in outing main accounts" in #248. You then slot him into likely town in two subsequent read posts with no explanation.

What am I missing?

I've been working with the belief that they didn't originally know if they killed the jailor, but by DP3 they realized they probably have.

I'd say it's obvious by now, yes.

A-Deirdre wrote:

I'd say it's obvious by now, yes.

Yes, but there's more nuance. I think by the beginning of D3 in particular they had enough reason to believe that the jailor was dead to consider setting up for a jailor fake claim.

Yes, but there's more nuance. I think by the beginning of D3 in particular they had enough reason to believe that the jailor was dead to consider setting up for a jailor fake claim.

Been thinking about that as well.

A-Deirdre wrote:

Yes, but there's more nuance. I think by the beginning of D3 in particular they had enough reason to believe that the jailor was dead to consider setting up for a jailor fake claim.

Been thinking about that as well.

If that was the case then why didn’t Fiona just out right claim jailer?

If that was the case then why didn’t Fiona just out right claim jailer?

…the assumption here was that scum didn’t know there wasn’t a living Jailor until the beginning of DP3. Fiona was lynched DP2. Does not compute.

That part. Caine is trying very hard to confuse the order of events between D2 and D3 to retroactively apply their D3 stances to D2.

That part. Caine is trying very hard to confuse the order of events between D2 and D3 to retroactively apply their D3 stances to D2.

Yep, I’ve noticed that.

This is caine and brand. Iso brand and look at the swap. Caine was trying to deter the mafia lynch suggesting a jester snd weird party set ups. They have been absent reading each other and the mass claim part from brand. Hes skirted by but he was heavy sussed dp1 and swapped out

But you are mentioning what I did. The Caine transitions are damaging and when you iso him. It's even more obvious

Cain is trying to retcon his reads. Its an issue.

We are way overthinking this

If it walks and talks like a duck

This is exactly cain and brand.

Bleys being the isolated one off but a scum bleys would push me here so this is all but validated my opinion. Spidey sense is at 100

A-Random wrote:

Cain is trying to retcon his reads. Its an issue.

We are way overthinking this

If it walks and talks like a duck

This is exactly cain and brand.

Bleys being the isolated one off but a scum bleys would push me here so this is all but validated my opinion. Spidey sense is at 100

I see you are trying to expand the Poe to expand a possible ML on Bleyes.

I understand this game wasn’t my best. If I get mislynched and cause town to lose I’ll accept the blame.

the team is literally just random / brand.

You don’t deserve the win. You’ve angelshot, violated the rules of the game, and have shown zero respect for game integrity.

I would love reads from Brand.