Stereotype Mafia DP2

Whazzup mah neighbors

Wryly wrote:

Depends. In Chicago Bears mafia the Tailor could not affect alignment. In Alien mafia whiteflame tailored Casey from town to 3P.

I don't mean to criticize the habit of looking to past games for information, but I think we should all keep in mind that there's no rulebook for game hosts on here, and we are free to design our roles however we want.

Thoth wrote:

I don't mean to criticize the habit of looking to past games for information, but I think we should all keep in mind that there's no rulebook for game hosts on here, and we are free to design our roles however we want.

Precedent is the only context we have with which to weigh modding probabilities, and is particularly salient considering what Pie said in #107.

ILikePie5 wrote:

Can we please put votes on Helz and force him to full claim. He’s clearly coming from an informed perspective whether that be the TP statement or the one about scum choosing from a list.

I don't think the latter is relevant since it would be in character for Helz to ask Lunatic questions about how scum were allowed to create the fake mechanic.

@Helz I'm not going to push you for a claim but I would like an elaboration on DP1 #291.

ILikePie5 wrote:

Yeah. Throwing a bit out here and there for softs to point to is great and all. And I do love the trolling. But I think we should be cautious about claims. Sniffing out the mafia is going to be more complicated with a confirmed 3p to deal with. They will be able to genuinely scum hunt because one exists in the game and the 3p itself adds all sorts of wild potentials into the situation

Can you elaborate on this post?

I believe true tells draw from differences between the alignments. This one comes from the fact that Town are uninformed while wolves are informed.

In a game without 3p Town has to hunt and read players. Because of this a number of differences exist such as towns hunting being genuine and the reads they get being truly based off the information they are looking at. In contrast wolves have to fake scum hunting which some struggle to even fake while their conclusions are fabricated and not really based upon reads creating a potential gap between their reasoning and their conclusions.

In this game this does not exist. Wolves can genuinely hunt and have real reads with real reasoning making it more difficult to identify indicators.

ILikePie5 wrote:

Can we please put votes on Helz and force him to full claim. He’s clearly coming from an informed perspective whether that be the TP statement or the one about scum choosing from a list.

I swear you are an absolute crack head fiending for claims.

You do know you could actually read the massive amounts of posts I have made or ask me questions. This mindless "Lets slap votes around and then demand a claim and then go somewhere else" thing I will never understand. I really and truly appreciated it last game when I was scum though. Made it super easy on my scum team.

Wryly wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

Im really against us just claiming for no reason right now. Could we just not? Its D2 and yet again a huge portion of players have claimed all over the place.

If I didn’t feel like mine was already very obvious, I wouldn’t have done it. I agree we should keep claims to a minimum, it’s the reason I didn’t even want Ultra to claim.

You said last DP that there was a "reason you softed." Can you elaborate?

I will unpack that tommorow

Wryly wrote:

ILikePie5 wrote:

Can we please put votes on Helz and force him to full claim. He’s clearly coming from an informed perspective whether that be the TP statement or the one about scum choosing from a list.

I don't think the latter is relevant since it would be in character for Helz to ask Lunatic questions about how scum were allowed to create the fake mechanic.

@Helz I'm not going to push you for a claim but I would like an elaboration on DP1 #291.

Im kinda amused that Pie can not even believe I am good enough to ask targeted questions to help me solve in a situation.

When I want to actually be try hard sometimes I can be an absolute nightmare for hosts often asking lists of 15-20 questions at a time. This game I think I have only asked 10 or 15 so far. But quite a few were about that mechanics list with a lie in it.

And if you put yourself in Pies thinking its odd they are still stuck on this after they themselves (and other town) confirmed asking the host that exact question. This is in absolute contrast to Kohai voicing a number of options given while that was information the host would not give out from a question.

To answer your question though basically my same response I gave to Pie in #155. If it helps it draws from reasoning from the draft of a guide I was working on years and years ago.

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/45881-Helz-guide-to-improving-as-a-player-Part-2-Fundamentals-of-Scum-Hunting?highlight=Guide+improving+player

The core idea was to dive into theory and identify true tells then tie it to actual examples using MU games to reference actual slips and carve out true analysis scum hunting. That was after I shifted away from breaking games with methods I later decided were just utterly against the spirit of mafia. I think all I ever publicly released was my piece on Macro Meta Crunching. But I never ended up following through as I got some specific individuals in MU pissed off and they have decided to be total pieces of shit about a situation so I just abandoned the project.

But yes, This is what I was rambling about. And I think its very sound reasoning breaking down the core differences that exist to identify actual tells which was partially the core concept Dmitry Davidoff was outlining when using it as a tool to explore psychology and hidden information within group dynamics. I just wanted to take it a step further and nail down specific identifiable tells and why they function.

Been digging but I will need to adjust my entire world view.

I do still feel Ultra has not given much to read them. They claimed... Great... And by great I mean thats absolutely fucking useless to me and did nothing but help the mafia if they are town. But I would cut back to the question of if they are simply LHF and do not really give reasoning in any game or if this is just a frozen wolf who does not know how to fake reads and analysis.

Pie is doing normal Pie things. I am slightly pinged that they are acting stuck on if I could have possibly asked the host a question and think thats scummy. But logically even if I was scum I would have had to think to ask that question before hand in order to know that was safe to post which makes it kinda nonsensical. The pattern of bouncing from person to person grabbing one small thing then just demanding claims or setting up to demand a claim is a bit on my mind. If they did not do it every game I have played with them I would call it very scummy but its somehow the normal thing to do on this site.

Im going to spend more time going through re-reading everyone with the mindset that Kohai was actually town. About to kick off a very busy day so I may not be around much at all

Helz wrote:

ILikePie5 wrote:

Yeah. Throwing a bit out here and there for softs to point to is great and all. And I do love the trolling. But I think we should be cautious about claims. Sniffing out the mafia is going to be more complicated with a confirmed 3p to deal with. They will be able to genuinely scum hunt because one exists in the game and the 3p itself adds all sorts of wild potentials into the situation

Can you elaborate on this post?

I believe true tells draw from differences between the alignments. This one comes from the fact that Town are uninformed while wolves are informed.

In a game without 3p Town has to hunt and read players. Because of this a number of differences exist such as towns hunting being genuine and the reads they get being truly based off the information they are looking at. In contrast wolves have to fake scum hunting which some struggle to even fake while their conclusions are fabricated and not really based upon reads creating a potential gap between their reasoning and their conclusions.

In this game this does not exist. Wolves can genuinely hunt and have real reads with real reasoning making it more difficult to identify indicators.

Again, you’re just doubling down now. How do you know there’s a TP or not?

I get the whole idea that with a TP, scum can fake scumhunt. No question about that. But you’re writing like it’s a fact that a TP exists, which is one of 5 conditions. Either you’re the TP yourself or scum because only those two would know whether or not condition #1 is true

As for the notion of you not slipping, that’s pure WIFOM, and I also know that you would’ve hammered WF last game and lost the game. You’re prone to miss/forget things just like we all are

Dude. What are you even on about. It was disclosed to us at the start of the game and we had extensive discussions about which of the revealed things is likely to be a lie. It flatly says in one of the host revealed mechanics that a 3rd party exists and I concluded its very unlikely for scum to choose that as the thing thats lied about.

Unless you want to argue that its likely for the Mafia team to have chosen that as the lie its a very reasonable assumption to believe there is indeed a 3rd party.

I do not think Scum Pie woulda screwed this up. Its much more likely their team would have told them they were doing a bad push and reminded them of the obvious first post.

Helz wrote:

Dude. What are you even on about. It was disclosed to us at the start of the game and we had extensive discussions about which of the revealed things is likely to be a lie. It flatly says in one of the host revealed mechanics that a 3rd party exists and I concluded its very unlikely for scum to choose that as the thing thats lied about.

Okay, but you’re not 100%. At least, you shouldn’t be. You’re writing like it’s gospel.

Ive already mentioned that the utility of #1 to scum is very little, but I’m not writing like I know there is definitely a TP. It reads as a Freudian slip.

That combined with the other “questions” you supposedly asked Luna, there’s a sort of pattern forming. I know people don’t agree with me on the latter and that you indeed could’ve asked that, but to me it’s still a negative point in your favor.

I really do not know why your acting like its unreasonable to assume a 3rd party is in the game with what I am saying. I have never once voiced certainty on the subject and simply am playing assuming its the case given the information in front of me. You can read though my reasoning on the posted mechanics and easily see how I drew such a conclusion and then pivoted to speculate on how it changes the way we will need to hunt.

Same as I did when I drew the assumption that Kohai was tailored. I gave my reasoning and then started working from that assumption on what it would indicate.

If you were not on such an unreasonable line I would be suspicious of you for it.

Wryly wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

Im really against us just claiming for no reason right now. Could we just not? Its D2 and yet again a huge portion of players have claimed all over the place.

If I didn’t feel like mine was already very obvious, I wouldn’t have done it. I agree we should keep claims to a minimum, it’s the reason I didn’t even want Ultra to claim.

You said last DP that there was a "reason you softed." Can you elaborate?

I’d prefer not to. This would require at least strongly hinting at my role.

ILikePie5 wrote:

Helz wrote:

Dude. What are you even on about. It was disclosed to us at the start of the game and we had extensive discussions about which of the revealed things is likely to be a lie. It flatly says in one of the host revealed mechanics that a 3rd party exists and I concluded its very unlikely for scum to choose that as the thing thats lied about.

Okay, but you’re not 100%. At least, you shouldn’t be. You’re writing like it’s gospel.

Ive already mentioned that the utility of #1 to scum is very little, but I’m not writing like I know there is definitely a TP. It reads as a Freudian slip.

That combined with the other “questions” you supposedly asked Luna, there’s a sort of pattern forming. I know people don’t agree with me on the latter and that you indeed could’ve asked that, but to me it’s still a negative point in your favor.

Thinking about it. Given what we know if you had to put a number on it. Like from 1% to 100% likely what number would you put on there being a 3p in this game and why?

Just a heads up I will no longer be answering questions as loosely as I have been. If the question doesn't directly relate to your role I will be a bit more tight lipped about it. Hate to see mafia games devolve around discussions about mod answers, not really what the game should be about. Just don't take offense if I refuse to answer a question in the future, its not personal.

Lunatic wrote:

Just a heads up I will no longer be answering questions as loosely as I have been. If the question doesn't directly relate to your role I will be a bit more tight lipped about it. Hate to see mafia games devolve around discussions about mod answers, not really what the game should be about. Just don't take offense if I refuse to answer a question in the future, its not personal.

This is about me understanding why you thought it was such an unreasonable assumption that 3p was in the game. If I had to put a number on it I would say I am 85% sure that there is a 3p. I find it unreasonable to assume mafia chose to do option 1 for their lie given there is absolutly zero advantage I can see in doing so. You have approached the situation acting like its unreasonable which is what I am suspicious of.

So given this is not idle mod speculation and actually me digging into your reasoning- what number would you put on it? Why did you think it was so utterly unreasonable for me to think there was 3p that it must be some TMI slip? Or did you simply forget the intro post?

Lets move this to dms

Would it be 20% or 80%? Me not good at math. Need coffee.

So uhh. Im stupid and have half a brain on the game. Doing a million things right now and accidently responded to Luna thinking I was responding to Pie. Uhh.. Yeah.. That happened >.<

Helz wrote:

So uhh. Im stupid and have half a brain on the game. Doing a million things right now and accidently responded to Luna thinking I was responding to Pie. Uhh.. Yeah.. That happened >.<

Let's not worry about that. Go back to your post where you brought up third parties but before you read it, put your thumb over your name and pretend someone else wrote it.

What would you think about that persons alignment or information they have?

Here's my completely unserious rendition of it because I'm bored.

Just saying folks it's gonna be a wild ride. Mafia can just slip in the shadows and hunt down the third party this game - which could be an arsonist. Man that'd be crazy. But since the Mafia can help us find them, maybe we don't kill slots that actually scumhunt. So the arsonist doesn't kill us.

MeowMix wrote:

Helz wrote:

So uhh. Im stupid and have half a brain on the game. Doing a million things right now and accidently responded to Luna thinking I was responding to Pie. Uhh.. Yeah.. That happened >.<

Let's not worry about that. Go back to your post where you brought up third parties but before you read it, put your thumb over your name and pretend someone else wrote it.

What would you think about that persons alignment or information they have?

I drew the conclusion that 1 was super likely to be a true claim from the host. It only looks odd when you throw it around out of context.

Putting aside whether it came from X or Y; Can you show me an example of you using that information to scumhunt?

Before you say I'm shading you, I mean town!helz using that information to scumhunt. Not trying to do a 'gotcha'.