Stereotype Mafia DP2

Helz wrote:

Its possible.

One of my issues with Ultra on either side is that no matter how much they get pressure they never seem to give anything that lets me read them. I have no idea what to do with that. They just claim or give blank reads with little reasoning.

This puts them as LHF town or frozen scum who do not know how to fake reads. But if the second one was the case maybe they would get somewhat coached by their team more?

I don't think Ultra is going to tell us anything meaningful about his alignment. And it doesn't seem like it would matter much because in either case I see you, thoth, mikal and wylted swapping votes off completely independently of the slot.

And then after you guys did that nobody wants to follow up; Not a single one of you guys is committed to pushing there.

wylted wrote:

I feel like I should have given Kohai more opportunity to self terminate so we didn't lose the town kill, especially since my confidence ultra was scum was much higher. Or I should have just let him get away with not playing ball with town and pushed the ultra lynch since he only needed a few votes and me advocating may have been what made the difference

So, what if Ultra is town? In that case you're basically just saying you're upset we didn't lose two town players. And you hammered at the end anyway so, what.

Modkill mechanics are not what people normally called self-resolving slots. Also your post #2 sounds like you're taking a victory lap lmao

Im not sure what else anyone can say. I repeatedly brought up how much I could give a shit less about their claim and just want content from them. Others shoved and demanded content and they just made excuses about how they have been around more and claim. They never give any and other people seemed to loose interest after they claimed.

Im kinda at a point of "Do we just let this slot slank through the game and cross our fingers or do we kill them" at this point.

The shitty thing is this game gave extremely little room for a policy elimination and that tiny room was basically eaten by Kohai.

We roll the dice either way but if they are town we basically have to play perfectly the rest of the game unless town can pull some shit.

Helz wrote:

Im not sure what else anyone can say. I repeatedly brought up how much I could give a shit less about their claim and just want content from them. Others shoved and demanded content and they just made excuses about how they have been around more and claim. They never give any and other people seemed to loose interest after they claimed.

Im kinda at a point of "Do we just let this slot slank through the game and cross our fingers or do we kill them" at this point.

VTL: wylted

Vote this with me so I can see where your heart is at.

Duno how that will show you where my heart is at but I will do it if you explain your reasoning.

Thoth and Rex are two other slots I am interested in

Thats not at all a suspicious statement

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Helz (3/6): ILikePie5 (p#62), Mikal (p#131), Ultracrepidarian (p#143)

wylted (1/6): MeowMix (p#216)

Not Voting (6): Helz, RexFavilla, Thoth, whiteflame (p#60), Wryly, wylted

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 18 hours.

Almost reads like a 3p flagging the mafia team and saying "Im cool with town dying"

What are your feelings on Mikal?

Wryly really does feel town to me. She feels like she's invested in figuring out mech info and modpsych. Could she be faking it? Maybe. But my gut says she isn't.

What's your read on Helz right now?

We're wasting too much time on Ultra and should pursue other avenues of inquiry. I doubt he's gonna give us anything more to work with; we can just mark him down as the default lynch this DP if you guys like and move on. Lynching a vanilla isn't a huge loss but a mislynch this DP could put us at 5-3-1.

Helz - So far the strongest case against him is that he asked Lunatic some proactive questions and treated Mech 1 as "certain" instead of "very probable"? I'm not seeing it. He's null for now, with one caveat: he did catch Kohai's slip. That has my attention since scum probably read DP1 #466 with delight. But since town were as likely to want to focus on that slip as scum, that's a wash.

Pie - Hammered the second nail in Kohai's coffin (Kohai himself would hammer in the third, fourth, and fifth nails) but again, Pie would be as motivated to do that as town as he would be as scum. Another detail that's sticking with me is that Pie went out of his way to signal that he was a feminist character pretty early on in DP1, which is completely unlike him in my experience. He's only ever willing to commit to vague, broad soft claims, and only if everyone else is doing it.

whiteflame - Eternally null. Softed early, says he has good reason to. I originally was suspicious of everyone who softed early because if Mech 3 was the lie then scum have incentive to soft early; with doubt cast on whether there is a theme split, straight soft claiming early is a no-risk, moderate-reward tactic. But I can't put all my eggs in the "mech 3 was the lie" basket.

wylted - I'm not gonna push him for an inactivity claim when he's been active since he took over the slot. Only thing against him is he jumped on the Kohai wagon late. Being trigger-happy is NAI for him. Null.

Meowmix - New guy is hard to read but I'm eyeballing him.

Rex - Hasn't been active enough. Paranoia making me question if the Pie/Rex "Really, would you like to try again?" reaction test was mere theater, but paranoia be like that.

Mikal - He put the squeeze on Kohai even before the slip and Kohai is just an easy target for scum to squeeze. Kept us all talking about all that OOG shit with Kohai and Thoth's complaints way too long, which is something he would definitely do as scum to keep town spinning its wheels. Even posted what looked like a direct quote from his DM with Luna, although Luna told me it was not a direct copy & paste. He did answer Banana's question and hard stated he wins with the town, which indicates he's either town or scum decided she would die tonight then and there. I don't buy scum!Mikal not being wary of a Lie Detector there.

Thoth - Dodged Banana's "do you win with town" question, has been coasting a lil bit, hopped on Kohai's wagon late. I'd be okay with applying pressure to this slot.

Helz wrote:

Wryly wrote:

@Helz I'm not going to push you for a claim but I would like an elaboration on DP1 #291.

Im kinda amused that Pie can not even believe I am good enough to ask targeted questions to help me solve in a situation.

When I want to actually be try hard sometimes I can be an absolute nightmare for hosts often asking lists of 15-20 questions at a time. This game I think I have only asked 10 or 15 so far. But quite a few were about that mechanics list with a lie in it.

And if you put yourself in Pies thinking its odd they are still stuck on this after they themselves (and other town) confirmed asking the host that exact question. This is in absolute contrast to Kohai voicing a number of options given while that was information the host would not give out from a question.

To answer your question though basically my same response I gave to Pie in #155. If it helps it draws from reasoning from the draft of a guide I was working on years and years ago.

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/45881-Helz-guide-to-improving-as-a-player-Part-2-Fundamentals-of-Scum-Hunting?highlight=Guide+improving+player

The core idea was to dive into theory and identify true tells then tie it to actual examples using MU games to reference actual slips and carve out true analysis scum hunting. That was after I shifted away from breaking games with methods I later decided were just utterly against the spirit of mafia. I think all I ever publicly released was my piece on Macro Meta Crunching. But I never ended up following through as I got some specific individuals in MU pissed off and they have decided to be total pieces of shit about a situation so I just abandoned the project.

But yes, This is what I was rambling about. And I think its very sound reasoning breaking down the core differences that exist to identify actual tells which was partially the core concept Dmitry Davidoff was outlining when using it as a tool to explore psychology and hidden information within group dynamics. I just wanted to take it a step further and nail down specific identifiable tells and why they function.

This doesn't really tell me anything. I assume #163 is your real answer as to why you believe there is definitely a 3P?

Thinking more about this, I still think it's probably Mech 3 that's the lie. Think about it: Lunatic told us scum got a tradeoff between receiving fake claims and being given the ability to choose a fake game mechanic. If Mech 3 is true, there is no tradeoff. They don't have to think up fake claims, and they get to pick a false game mechanic to put in.

If I'm wrong, I still think it has to be between Mech 2 and Mech 3. I can't see Lunatic giving scum a Tailor and a free pass out of having to fake claim. That's too scum-sided.

The best way to catch Wylted as scum is to force him to claim. He’s horrible at claiming. If his claim is somewhat good, he’s either town or has really good support

Lynching a vanilla isn't a huge loss but a mislynch this DP could put us at 5-3-1.

The above from castin is just bad bad. Also reads as tmi and like oh well. If we are wrong. We are at mylo. Not to mention lynching a vanilla is just worded in a way that has affirmation to it.

ILikePie5 wrote:

The best way to catch Wylted as scum is to force him to claim. He’s horrible at claiming. If his claim is somewhat good, he’s either town or has really good support

If he's scum all he has to do is think up a plausible role to go with his actual character though.

Wryly wrote:

This doesn't really tell me anything. I assume #163 is your real answer as to why you believe there is definitely a 3P?

Well not just that. It was also the heavy analysis digging through the claims and concluding that statement 1 was one of the very least likely things to be a lie given there is zero value in scum to make such a lie. If anyone can think of a reason scum would pick that as a lie I would love to hear it but otherwise yes. I am certain there is a 3p. How certain am I? 85 or 90% certain.

I am watching how people keep trying to make that a big deal and ignoring the context and analysis that came before it.

RexFavilla wrote:

What's your read on Helz right now?

If you're asking me to vote them with you, you should know your vote earlier didn't count. Which, kind of bothers me because it could have led to an early hammer. I'm assuming it was an honest mistake and not trickery.

I guess I'll see how I feel about it tomorrow. He's obviously frustrated so he get try digging himself out tomorrow with a fresh mind.

Plus, other slots including your own are getting active. It's your turn to do some work.

wylted wrote:

What's your read on Helz right now?

You didn't ask me but IQ that's in the 2 digit range.

Hear me out. He thinks the goal of the game is for town to survive than for town to maximize their own kills so they can slowly tighten the noose around scum and when I asked about ultras justification he spoke about the justification for claiming instead of the justification the mod gave for his role

This actually made me laugh.

Duno where I bruised your ego but I think a second town dieing tightens the noose around the towns neck and not the scums. Crazy idea that we might not want to be in MYLO. But what do I know. I only have a 2 digit range IQ.

Stepping back from whats being talked about I feel that we have some unproductive lines of conversation going. I think what we should be doing is asking everyone to give read walls with reasoning.

I personally want to hear from Thoth, Rex, Ultra, and Wylted. Thats 4 players I have little understanding of what they think about who and I think it would be a productive move forward if as a town we all pushed for that info.

Not just "A, B, and C are town and D, E, F are neutral" kinda bullshit wall. REASONING

I think this is the path we can create for the town to win instead of bickering about details and we should all work to create our own read walls.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Helz (3/6): ILikePie5 (p#62), Mikal (p#131), Ultracrepidarian (p#143)

wylted (1/6): MeowMix (p#216)

Not Voting (6): Helz, RexFavilla, Thoth, whiteflame (p#60), Wryly, wylted

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 13 hours.

Wryly wrote:

We're wasting too much time on Ultra and should pursue other avenues of inquiry. I doubt he's gonna give us anything more to work with; we can just mark him down as the default lynch this DP if you guys like and move on. Lynching a vanilla isn't a huge loss but a mislynch this DP could put us at 5-3-1.

Helz - So far the strongest case against him is that he asked Lunatic some proactive questions and treated Mech 1 as "certain" instead of "very probable"? I'm not seeing it. He's null for now, with one caveat: he did catch Kohai's slip. That has my attention since scum probably read DP1 #466 with delight. But since town were as likely to want to focus on that slip as scum, that's a wash.

Pie - Hammered the second nail in Kohai's coffin (Kohai himself would hammer in the third, fourth, and fifth nails) but again, Pie would be as motivated to do that as town as he would be as scum. Another detail that's sticking with me is that Pie went out of his way to signal that he was a feminist character pretty early on in DP1, which is completely unlike him in my experience. He's only ever willing to commit to vague, broad soft claims, and only if everyone else is doing it.

whiteflame - Eternally null. Softed early, says he has good reason to. I originally was suspicious of everyone who softed early because if Mech 3 was the lie then scum have incentive to soft early; with doubt cast on whether there is a theme split, straight soft claiming early is a no-risk, moderate-reward tactic. But I can't put all my eggs in the "mech 3 was the lie" basket.

wylted - I'm not gonna push him for an inactivity claim when he's been active since he took over the slot. Only thing against him is he jumped on the Kohai wagon late. Being trigger-happy is NAI for him. Null.

Meowmix - New guy is hard to read but I'm eyeballing him.

Rex - Hasn't been active enough. Paranoia making me question if the Pie/Rex "Really, would you like to try again?" reaction test was mere theater, but paranoia be like that.

Mikal - He put the squeeze on Kohai even before the slip and Kohai is just an easy target for scum to squeeze. Kept us all talking about all that OOG shit with Kohai and Thoth's complaints way too long, which is something he would definitely do as scum to keep town spinning its wheels. Even posted what looked like a direct quote from his DM with Luna, although Luna told me it was not a direct copy & paste. He did answer Banana's question and hard stated he wins with the town, which indicates he's either town or scum decided she would die tonight then and there. I don't buy scum!Mikal not being wary of a Lie Detector there.

Thoth - Dodged Banana's "do you win with town" question, has been coasting a lil bit, hopped on Kohai's wagon late. I'd be okay with applying pressure to this slot.

This just made me realized that there's guaranteed to be scum among people who posted their wincon. Scum had to have realized she was fishing for LD statements, there's no other reason to kill her. And one of them had to have been worried about being investigated - and she would only be targeting the statements she fished out through the LD wincon shit. My guess is that one of the scum she pressured to state their wincons panicked and posted it before the rest of the scum team caught on to what she was doing

Because if one wasn't worried, why kill Banana NP1 when she was a decent mislynch target through a TMI argument?

RexFavilla wrote:

Because if one wasn't worried, why kill Banana NP1 when she was a decent mislynch target through a TMI argument?

Eyyyyh Rexy boi. What are your reads?

Mikal wrote:

Lynching a vanilla isn't a huge loss but a mislynch this DP could put us at 5-3-1.

The above from castin is just bad bad. Also reads as tmi and like oh well. If we are wrong. We are at mylo. Not to mention lynching a vanilla is just worded in a way that has affirmation to it.

Digging back through whats bad about it? What are you seeing here that I am not?