Alright, we've got to make some progress towards a lynch here and not much is happening. Going to give some reads and thoughts for a lynch.
I'm setting Helz entirely aside for now. I've mentioned already that I think he and Mag1c are entirely uncoupled as a potential scum pairing, and I stand by that. If we end up eliminating Mag1c and dude flips town, Helz is my first consideration for next DP. The early vote by Mag1c on Helz is part of it, but I've had my concerns about him since last DP. I also have issues with how much he's focused on a theme split, though that might just be part of the challenge he's giving himself this game.
For the time being, I'm also setting aside Kohai. It's not the same boat - I wouldn't say Kohai and Mag1c are entirely uncoupled - but I believe it's pretty unlikely they're on a team together. I didn't like the early jumping on the same vote with Mag1c, though maybe he just bought that the Blackmail was real at the time and figured it supported his read on Helz. It's something I'll revisit later.
I'm wary of Noah, but considering setting him aside as well. The way he's claimed his role just has me on edge with the whole "I can only use this on odd nights" addition coming late and conveniently at a time that makes it impossible for him to use it until DP3. I buy that he asked Savant about it, and depending on when he asked, he might not have received a response in time to make a decision. I don't really get his choice of targets, either. He's a bit of an outside consideration that's just irking me at this point, basically entirely unconnected with anyone.
I'm also wary of Luna, though that has more to do with his claim being a big question mark and what seems like a persistent difficulty reading him behaviorally on my part. I think his reads earlier in the DP make sense, and no, that's not just because he was townreading me. The response to the apparent Blackmailing does look like he's trying to figure out the bounds of it pretty well. Similar to Noah, I'm on the fence about him.
Thoth has brought some more of his perspective to this DP, which is good to see, but I'm not getting any clear idea of where his head is at with regards to reads. Introducing some more doubt on whether there's a balance issue to consider here is worrying. I can't tell if he's being genuine or trying to cover for his partner. I could see a world where Noah or Luna are tied to Mag1c, but Thoth is the most probable person to be his scum partner should Mag1c flip scum.
And then we get to Mag1c. I've got so many conflicting thoughts about him. I would not be surprised that a role like Blackmailer exists in this game, it's very much on brand, particularly given the expected scum split. I also think it's a pretty big risk to just effectively pretend he's unable to post and hope for the best, relying on his partner and other potential susses to carry him through. That being said, it's not a first for him to pretend to have been targeted by a scum role to get towncred, and the way the role works is... confusing. So he was allowed at the start of the DP to announce that he'd been Blackmailed? And post a vote? That's it? If that's true, it's a way more potent Silencer because the player couldn't even get confirmation that a role had been used on them, so we can't even confirm that this was the result of a night action. The same was true with a Poisoner several games back (though usually that is announced), which Mag1c did fake. And now, of course, we can't get his claim. Absent his, Thoth's and Luna's claims, assuming they're both town, the PRs for town look suspiciously weak and even self-defeating. Just to break it down, claims have town as:
A 2X Doc (limited use protective)
A Singer (negative utility)
A Popular (mainly just self-confirmation)
A 2X Redirector (manipulative, mixed often negative utility)
I can and have confirmed that my role does not dramatically reshape this dynamic. No investigatives yet, though Helz has said he's either VT or PGO, so either no utility or another negative utility role. So either the three unclaimed players dramatically reshape the balance of the setup to the point that there could be a Vanillaizer and a Blackmailer, or the balance strongly indicates that one of those two roles isn't in here. Maybe there is a town Vanillaizing role, but I can't say I'm banking on that.
My feeling right now is that the Mag1c elimination would do the most to limit POE. What's holding me back in part is that role uncertainty. Again, balance seems off here and I'm hesitant to just lynch among the unclaimed pool when we can and should suspect some valuable PRs in there.
