Epstein's Island Mafia DP3

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:44 PM (post #58)

Im still surprised Blackmailer is in the game to begin with. It really is a pretty bastard mechanic requiring people to not work twords their win condition.

Would a 2x Blackmailer even be possible?

Like I said above, the Blackmailer here is more like an unannounced Silencer, and yes, we've seen multiple shots for Silencers here. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? I'm still not sure. With what looks like a 1X Vanillaizer and no other apparent roles, maybe.

I will also say Kohai and WF should also consider this. You are both in a 50/50 looking at me and the other person.

A lot of me is simply leaning twords a world of exactly Thoth/WF but I do not want to rush that given Lylo.

1. Helz
2. Kohai
3. Lunatic
4. whiteflame
5. Thoth

If thoth is scum the possible pairings

Thoth / Helz

Thoth / Luna

Thoth / wf

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:50 PM (post #60)

There is also a question. We all recognize there is 100% a 1v1 between Luna/Thoth with Thoth claiming blackmailed.

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

This would leave the D4 of Kohai, WF, Helz. I feel its a decent idea for us to solve there if we draw the conclusion that Thoth is absolutely the second scum. Although I do have the bias that this also gives me a 50/50

I feel like that is the 1v1 here, so I agree. We can try hunting outside of that 1v1, but either the game ends with the wrong lynch, or we get information from the flip that can help inform the scumhunt in the final 3.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 3:54 PM (post #63)

1. Helz
2. Kohai
3. Lunatic
4. whiteflame
5. Thoth

If thoth is scum the possible pairings

Thoth / Helz

Thoth / Luna

Thoth / wf

If you replace Luna with Kohai then yes. Although I get it from your perspective.

Also you would have to think a S! Luna would hard buss a S! Thoth while also Thoth fakes blackmailed in Lylo. Thats just not something I see having happened so gotta remove that Luna/Thoth pairing potential.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 3:55 PM (post #64)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:50 PM (post #60)

There is also a question. We all recognize there is 100% a 1v1 between Luna/Thoth with Thoth claiming blackmailed.

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

This would leave the D4 of Kohai, WF, Helz. I feel its a decent idea for us to solve there if we draw the conclusion that Thoth is absolutely the second scum. Although I do have the bias that this also gives me a 50/50

I feel like that is the 1v1 here, so I agree. We can try hunting outside of that 1v1, but either the game ends with the wrong lynch, or we get information from the flip that can help inform the scumhunt in the final 3.

I am leaning twords just wanting Luna around to help resolve Me/WF/Kohai. If we are willing to bet on Thoth being scum we are betting the entire game on Luna. And if we are gona do that having them around is a positive.

I will also say mechanically 'if' you guys decide that its as simple as Thoth then you have to either believe I am a Godfather or I am semi confirmed town.

This is an even larger stretch for WF having to also require me to be a Godfather + Vanalizer or Godfather + Blackmailer.

But solving within the 3p of Helz/Wf/Kohai is probably the play here as opposed to flipping a coin with a slot that will not speak or interact with us.

Imo for Kohai WF should be virtually confirmed scum in this situation mechanically 'if' they believe Luna instead of the tin foil. The probability of me being one of those roles + having that modifier is quite extra.

WF should sort between myself and Kohai but also have mech knowledge (if town) that the vanalizer is real.

Imo though, in either situation whichever the town player is between Kohai and WF has the game solve. I would like to talk about that.

An added advantage of this situation is that killing between Me/Kohai/WF forces mafia to kill Luna giving the flip that confirms Thoth as scum -or- enter a 3p Lylo with 1 vote that will hardline be against them.

Thats a huge advantage for a 3P Lylo. I really think we should make the lynch exactly one of us three and leave Luna/Thoth for tommorow given we put the wolves in a loose loose situation if we play it out this way.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:59 PM (post #66)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 3:55 PM (post #64)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:50 PM (post #60)

There is also a question. We all recognize there is 100% a 1v1 between Luna/Thoth with Thoth claiming blackmailed.

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

This would leave the D4 of Kohai, WF, Helz. I feel its a decent idea for us to solve there if we draw the conclusion that Thoth is absolutely the second scum. Although I do have the bias that this also gives me a 50/50

I feel like that is the 1v1 here, so I agree. We can try hunting outside of that 1v1, but either the game ends with the wrong lynch, or we get information from the flip that can help inform the scumhunt in the final 3.

I am leaning twords just wanting Luna around to help resolve Me/WF/Kohai. If we are willing to bet on Thoth being scum we are betting the entire game on Luna. And if we are gona do that having them around is a positive.

I will also say mechanically 'if' you guys decide that its as simple as Thoth then you have to either believe I am a Godfather or I am semi confirmed town.

This is an even larger stretch for WF having to also require me to be a Godfather + Vanalizer or Godfather + Blackmailer.

But solving within the 3p of Helz/Wf/Kohai is probably the play here as opposed to flipping a coin with a slot that will not speak or interact with us.

If that's what you guys would prefer, I'd understand, though I recognize that that effectively places me in the hotseat. I agree, you would have to have a dual role to be scum from where I'm sitting. So would Kohai, since he's confirmed to be Popular. Since my role is necessarily unconfirmed, it's at least mechanically more likely that I'm scum than either of you. If I am just in auto-lynch territory automatically next DP, it might just be best to hash this out now, even if I know it's going to be rough.

I think its objectively the superior play although I do not want to snap vote WF. I want to dig between the two.

All I can say is that I’m amazed anyone thinks I would either blindly fake claim Trump here or ask about him as one of the two characters I could ask were in the game and actually receive a “no” for his presence in a game about Epstein Island.

Also, feeling that tinfoil hat again: why are we writing off a Thoth/Luna pairing again? Because of bussing?

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 5:01 PM (post #71)

All I can say is that I’m amazed anyone thinks I would either blindly fake claim Trump here or ask about him as one of the two characters I could ask were in the game and actually receive a “no” for his presence in a game about Epstein Island.

Also, feeling that tinfoil hat again: why are we writing off a Thoth/Luna pairing again? Because of bussing?

Good points. I do not see a world where Trump is not a very obvious flavor to be in the game. So yeah, I think its much less likely to be a false flavor.

I feel Thoth/Luna pairing would be wild. It would have to be a really deep wolf play faking a blackmail, Luna claiming a really risky invest role, and deciding to kill one of their own for town cred when in Lylo they could just do nothing and likely win. I really do not see it as being a realistic potential.

If Luna lied he could get a hard CC and it would be taking wolves from a winning position into a 1v1 expecting town to kill between them and betting on winning the following day. I just really do not see any logic to such a play. It also takes a massive amount of balls to even try before considering how poor of a play that would be.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 6:23 PM (post #72)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 5:01 PM (post #71)

All I can say is that I’m amazed anyone thinks I would either blindly fake claim Trump here or ask about him as one of the two characters I could ask were in the game and actually receive a “no” for his presence in a game about Epstein Island.

Also, feeling that tinfoil hat again: why are we writing off a Thoth/Luna pairing again? Because of bussing?

Good points. I do not see a world where Trump is not a very obvious flavor to be in the game. So yeah, I think its much less likely to be a false flavor.

I feel Thoth/Luna pairing would be wild. It would have to be a really deep wolf play faking a blackmail, Luna claiming a really risky invest role, and deciding to kill one of their own for town cred when in Lylo they could just do nothing and likely win. I really do not see it as being a realistic potential.

If Luna lied he could get a hard CC and it would be taking wolves from a winning position into a 1v1 expecting town to kill between them and betting on winning the following day. I just really do not see any logic to such a play. It also takes a massive amount of balls to even try before considering how poor of a play that would be.

Those are fair points. Luna having recently fake claimed Cop with the explicit aim (he told me later) of bussing his scum partner (Pie last game) has me on edge a bit. As scum, I know he’s more than willing to bid for towncred, just a matter of whether there’s any meaningful benefit to doing so in this game. I don’t see it clearly here, though he didn’t have a whole lot of unknowns when it came time to claim and he tends to be a high risk-high reward player. Balance-wise, I think a Cop makes sense for this game, and it would be kind of crazy if there wasn’t one given what we know scum has.

meant to say “to bus for towncred” not bid

Those are fair points. Luna having recently fake claimed Cop with the explicit aim (he told me later) of bussing his scum partner (Pie last game) has me on edge a bit. As scum, I know he’s more than willing to bid for towncred, just a matter of whether there’s any meaningful benefit to doing so in this game. I don’t see it clearly here, though he didn’t have a whole lot of unknowns when it came time to claim and he tends to be a high risk-high reward player. Balance-wise, I think a Cop makes sense for this game, and it would be kind of crazy if there wasn’t one given what we know scum has.

Yeah. Its also why largely I am in favor of not solving between Luna/Thoth today. The play as a scum only works if we react to it immediately. It totally fucks them in an epic way if we instead look at the other 50/50 you, me and Kohai have. For each of us thats town we have the exact same dynamic of knowing one of the two have to be scum "unless" we consider Thoth/Luna WvW and I really do not feel thats reasonable. I have to even put on a tin foil hat and consider that its exactly Thoth being the invest that wolves were told the role of + Blackmailer having 2 charges + Luna trying to go for the win right now to solve.

Avoiding touching the situation leaves the scum with 2 shitty options:

1- They Kill Luna tommorow and just loose

2- They let Luna live knowing that they have a 2v1 with 1 vote being hardline on them and making the surviving town a kingmaker.

The additional benefit I see is that I see is having Luna in play as we sort a 3p 50/50 he could be kingmaker as I do feel he is town. I just feel its the best chance of winning if town shoots between Kohai/WF/Helz today. And each of us has strong positioning to solve.

I am essentially looking at Luna/Thoth as WvT and WF/Kohai as WvT. With the first being easily solved tomorrow and the second a substantial issue we can unpack. WF and Kohai will each have the same 50/50 between me and the other person but I feel I am pretty transparent this game and there is a lot of mech to work with.

For my personal defense would I lie about my claim about being a limited shot PGO, citizen, or BP in this situation? Fuck yes I would. And my play this game perfectly spells that out. Scum can WIFOM what I am but my claim is simply that I am a citizen.

To consolidate my thoughts more clearly-

For Luna to be scum- BM must have 2 shots + exactly the scum getting Thoths role and Thoth is the actual invest. I feel this is unlikely.

or

Luna and Thoth are making a batshit crazy play that makes no sense forcing a WvW instead of betting on a single town voting poorly today in a 3v2. I feel this is super unlikely.

That said I strongly suspect Thoth is simply a wolf. Giving them a voice tomorrow puts them in an awful position.

For WF to be scum the Vanalizer claim was faked. (God do I hate that fucking word, My community called them an Auditor.)

For Kohai to be scum they are confirmed popular and would have to be popular + Vanalizer or Blackmailer given we know from yesterdays flip the BM claim on Mag1c was real.

This opens a question though, In a S! WF world what would their action be? Nobody has claimed role blocked or anything and we have not seen a second action impacting the game that looks like it came from scum.

I gotta wrap up an email for a buisness issue but after I can at least dig through Luna's D2 to look for consistency in their claim to checking me followed by digging into WF/Kohai.

Graveyard

2x doctor

Singer

Inventor

2x redirector

Claims

Popular - Confirmed

Vanilla

1x bp

Cop

1 unclaimed role

Mafia

Known to have at least a blackmailer possibly blackmailer + vanillaizer

==

This means either vanilla, BP, or cop is lying. Thoth’s role claim is unknown

Important

I confirmed with the host that if mafia can force a win they will win the game.

We know the blackmailer is probably a silencer of some sort. If this is the case then in a t!Thoth world he can vote because without his vote scum win

less than a day and half remain

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 8:30 PM (post #78)

less than a day and half remain

Yeah. Im crawling through a contract right now drafting an email for that commercial rental thing I mentioned the other day. I am popping back into this thread to talk but I really do feel that we should eliminate between You, Me and WF today.

Sadly we have to get exactly every single town member on a scum to have a chance and time is limited. Engagement is not what it should be right now in this situation.

Voice if you atleast agree to focus on that group and please sort between me and WF. I will answer any questions asked and focus on this game when I have the other obligation handled.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 9:37 PM (post #79)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 8:30 PM (post #78)

less than a day and half remain

Yeah. Im crawling through a contract right now drafting an email for that commercial rental thing I mentioned the other day. I am popping back into this thread to talk but I really do feel that we should eliminate between You, Me and WF today.

Sadly we have to get exactly every single town member on a scum to have a chance and time is limited. Engagement is not what it should be right now in this situation.

I do see your point in eliminating outside Luna / Thoth. That said in a w!Thoth world we would be able to have more clarity on theme split and scum is forced to either shoot Luna and clear you or shoot outside Luna which also narrows Poe

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 9:38 PM (post #80)

Voice if you atleast agree to focus on that group and please sort between me and WF. I will answer any questions asked and focus on this game when I have the other obligation handled.

GTMH if I was forced to vote outside Thoth right this second I’d vote wf. That said there’s a lot of WIfOM bothering me about that

i do feel paranoia about Luna. Mainly because

1) Noah died sussing him

2) Luna won multiple scum games in a row and last game fake claimed cop to get a win.

Thinking does Virginia Giuffre make sense as a plausible cop?

Virginia Lee Roberts Giuffre (/ˈdʒuːfreɪ/ JOO-fray; née Roberts; 9 August 1983 – 25 April 2025) was an American and Australian advocate for survivors of sex trafficking and one of the most prominent accusers of Jeffrey Epstein.[1]Giuffre provided detailed allegations to media outlets about Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. She alleged that Epstein ran a trafficking ring, outsourcing girls for sexual services.

Virginia was one of the key players in exposing the Epstein ring and

Giuffre pursued criminal and civil actions against Epstein and Maxwell.[9] In 2015, she sued Maxwell for defamation. The case was settled in 2017 for an undisclosed sum.[1] In 2015, Giuffre founded Victims Refuse Silence, a United States-based non-profit organization supporting survivors of abuse, which relaunched as Speak Out, Act, Reclaim (SOAR) in 2021. In 2014, she claimed Alan Dershowitz had sexually abused her (which he denied). After multiple lawsuits for defamation were filed between Giuffre and Dershowitz, both parties dropped their claims in 2022 and Giuffre said she "may have made a mistake" in identifying Dershowitz.[6]

Virginia pursuing criminal actions does indicate possible cop abilities??

tin foil theory

-Scum got Thoth’s role and Thoth is the actual cop

-Scum silenced Thoth

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 9:54 PM (post #86)

tin foil theory

-Scum got Thoth’s role and Thoth is the actual cop

-Scum silenced Thoth

Again, though, in that case... would Thoth hold off voting Luna at all? Would any of us seriously consider anyone else if we were Silenced like this, or hold off on voting? I'm not going to argue that it's impossible, I'm just baffled that Thoth would hop on, saying he's been Blackmailed, and then not post a vote instantly upon reading Luna's claim.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 8:43 PM (post #83)

i do feel paranoia about Luna. Mainly because

1) Noah died sussing him

2) Luna won multiple scum games in a row and last game fake claimed cop to get a win.

Yeah. My thoughts boil down to if Luna is making a scum play it falls flat on its face if we focus on the other situation first. Its an absolute disaster for them as a team if town does not shoot between the two which is what they expect.

I also simply think like, Say we decide Thoth is scum. We kill him they kill Luna. We then tomorrow have the exact same situation as today and still have to be right a second time. I do not see the situation of Helz/Kohai/WF getting easier tommorow. I do see the Luna/Thoth being very much easier given Thoth will be allowed to speak. And it really puts scum in a fucked up place forcing that as the ending 2v1 situation.

Like, If we kill a wolf between us 3 they either kill a claimed alignment cop destroying any chance of winning or they leave him alive knowing (potentially) a townie will vote them to the death and their chances do not exist. Its a loose loose end game there so we should shoot between us.

Mafia did not think this through if Luna is scum or Luna just got a hero action off and I feel its optimal to resolve tomorrow.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:05 PM (post #87)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 9:54 PM (post #86)

tin foil theory

-Scum got Thoth’s role and Thoth is the actual cop

-Scum silenced Thoth

Again, though, in that case... would Thoth hold off voting Luna at all? Would any of us seriously consider anyone else if we were Silenced like this, or hold off on voting? I'm not going to argue that it's impossible, I'm just baffled that Thoth would hop on, saying he's been Blackmailed, and then not post a vote instantly upon reading Luna's claim.

That is the other side that bothers me

This is where my FPS bullshit hits. I literally think Thoth is very likely scum and I still think towns best play is shooting into Helz/Kohai/WF.

I am arguing that while putting myself into a lynch pool and arguing something that could be pointed at as scummy for people that do not follow my reasoning.