Epstein's Island Mafia DP3

I get the argument Helz is making insofar as, at least for the three of us (Helz, me and Kohai) it's a choice between two people, just the same as it's a choice between two people if we're picking between Thoth and Luna. We do have at least some mechanical information for Helz and Kohai through Luna's results. I'm hesitant to take them at face value for a number of reasons - I think it's likely scum have roles that mess with Cop results and I keep rolling the possibility of Luna trying to use a fake Cop claim for a second time over in my head - but regardless, they're useful information we can use now to some degree.

I know that a Vanillaizer and Blackmailer were used by the end of DP1. I know that scum therefore couldn't use a Lawyer, so the only circumstance in which Helz is scum is exactly if he's the Godfather and one of those other two roles. I could see a world in which he's just Epstein and they give him an active and a passive role. It's plausible, even if I wouldn't call it probable.

We all know that Kohai is Popular. Again, the only person I could conceivably see as having both the Popular role and another role would be Epstein himself. I guess you could say he was very popular given how many people associated with him.

So if the decision comes down to the two of them... I'll be honest, I don't love either conclusion. It's the reason I keep returning to some possibility of a Thoth/Luna team despite that being so unlikely. I have to make a pretty big assumption either way. Kohai claimed very early to be Bill Clinton. If scum got lead time on the DP and got to ask some questions before the game started, maybe they could have prepared that. I don't like banking on that. I don't like banking on the possibility that Helz is exactly the Godfather. They both require assumptions I'd normally dismiss as too improbable to consider.

But here I am. I think you both look town behaviorally, too. By the smallest of margins, I'm favoring Kohai at this point, but there's plenty I don't like about that decision.

I know we're short on time, but I'm doing my damnedest to figure this one out and not liking how things are looking at all.

I should be clear, when I said I'm favoring Kohai, I mean as a lynch.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:23 PM (post #92)

I should be clear, when I said I'm favoring Kohai, I mean as a lynch.

Walk me through your worldview. From your POV the mafia PR is

Vanillaizer and Blackmailer with one of those having a popular modifier

Thats just way too OP

The WIfOm is why does w!Wf claim vanillaized knowing full well that’ll draw major attention to himself?

I think lynching Thoth is the best because in a w!Thoth we force scum to resolve Luna for us.

Man.. Can we please get engagement here? Its Lylo under a timer...

Not trying to be a bitch about it but we really need to move on this.

Oh. I am stupid and my computer did dumb things. Im sorry. Did not see replys.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 10:26 PM (post #93)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:23 PM (post #92)

I should be clear, when I said I'm favoring Kohai, I mean as a lynch.

Walk me through your worldview. From your POV the mafia PR is

Vanillaizer and Blackmailer with one of those having a popular modifier

Thats just way too OP

The possibilities from my POV are:

Thoth/Luna

Thoth/Kohai

Thoth/Helz

Luna/Kohai

Luna/Helz

In any of those worlds, I know one is a Vanillaizer and one is a Blackmailer.

We have confirmation that you are Popular.

We have confirmation that Helz got an innocent result from Luna. With two known active roles used on NP1, that could only possibly happen if he is precisely the GF or if Luna is just lying about the result.

So for 3 of these cases (T/K, T/H, and L/K), I necessarily have to believe that one person on that team has a passive role and an active role. The only two possibilities that don't fit that bill are T/L and L/H, since in the latter case, Luna could just be lying about getting an innocent result on his scum partner.

The T/L situation is fraught for a lot of reasons, and I think Helz already laid that out pretty well. The L/H situation is... actually something I should take some more time digging into. In part, I'd dismissed it because I don't think Luna gives a green check to his own partner, which would necessarily tie them together. I think both of them are more likely to bus one another as well. That would explain the existence of a Vanillaizer and a Blackmailer without the need for a passive role. If so, though, I find it weird that Helz is directing attention away from the 50-50 between Thoth and Luna, especially knowing that Thoth would almost certainly be the choice. Maybe there's something there, but if that is the team, then they're going out of their way to make things harder for themselves.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:44 PM (post #96)

Man.. Can we please get engagement here? Its Lylo under a timer...

I know. Thats the one thing that bothers me on this site.

On sites like MU you get 500 posts a day and here we are like a snail’s pace

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 9:46 PM (post #100)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:44 PM (post #96)

Man.. Can we please get engagement here? Its Lylo under a timer...

I know. Thats the one thing that bothers me on this site.

On sites like MU you get 500 posts a day and here we are like a snail’s pace

I will say it would have been reallllly fucking great to get stronger engagement from Luna right now. I should have my thing wrapped up shortly. It was a 23 page contract I was digging through and I gotta consolidate the info I got into an email now but I should be able to turn focus to this game soon.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:52 PM (post #101)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 9:46 PM (post #100)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:44 PM (post #96)

Man.. Can we please get engagement here? Its Lylo under a timer...

I know. Thats the one thing that bothers me on this site.

On sites like MU you get 500 posts a day and here we are like a snail’s pace

I will say it would have been reallllly fucking great to get stronger engagement from Luna right now. I should have my thing wrapped up shortly. It was a 23 page contract I was digging through and I gotta consolidate the info I got into an email now but I should be able to turn focus to this game soon.

Yeah the lack of engagement by Luna js bothering me

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:52 PM (post #101)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 9:46 PM (post #100)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:44 PM (post #96)

Man.. Can we please get engagement here? Its Lylo under a timer...

I know. Thats the one thing that bothers me on this site.

On sites like MU you get 500 posts a day and here we are like a snail’s pace

I will say it would have been reallllly fucking great to get stronger engagement from Luna right now. I should have my thing wrapped up shortly. It was a 23 page contract I was digging through and I gotta consolidate the info I got into an email now but I should be able to turn focus to this game soon.

Bothers me too, though I know that his engagement can sometimes be spotty. Still, bad time to fall silent.

Now that I think about it, we can still get one point of engagement from Thoth, which is actually posting a vote. Whether you're actually Blackmailed or scum and just playing this up, you still have a vote. Not saying you should do it now, but particularly if you are sussing Luna's claim, now's the time to clarify.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 11:09 PM (post #104)

Now that I think about it, we can still get one point of engagement from Thoth, which is actually posting a vote. Whether you're actually Blackmailed or scum and just playing this up, you still have a vote. Not saying you should do it now, but particularly if you are sussing Luna's claim, now's the time to clarify.

^ this 100% this

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:09 PM (post #104)

Now that I think about it, we can still get one point of engagement from Thoth, which is actually posting a vote. Whether you're actually Blackmailed or scum and just playing this up, you still have a vote. Not saying you should do it now, but particularly if you are sussing Luna's claim, now's the time to clarify.

Pretty much my view.

So I am very familiar with Blackmailers. It was totally normal where I was from. But the entire thing was that they would essentially write a contract saying what can and can not happen then the person blackmailed would do whatever to squirm out of it.

I had one back in the day where I was blackmailed to accuse a specific person in every post and not say I was blackmailed. I made it really stupid obvious talking about whatever and adding at the end of every post "Also, I feel X is scum"

If all I had was a vote to work with I would use it to communicate. Thats less valid today where a vote becomes permanent so potential of a clever T! Thoth holding their vote to look at future options. Although I do get the concern given they did not just snap-vote Luna.

I can just imagine right now the scum team scratching their heads realizing this day did not go the way they expected

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 11:31 PM (post #106)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:09 PM (post #104)

Now that I think about it, we can still get one point of engagement from Thoth, which is actually posting a vote. Whether you're actually Blackmailed or scum and just playing this up, you still have a vote. Not saying you should do it now, but particularly if you are sussing Luna's claim, now's the time to clarify.

Pretty much my view.

So I am very familiar with Blackmailers. It was totally normal where I was from. But the entire thing was that they would essentially write a contract saying what can and can not happen then the person blackmailed would do whatever to squirm out of it.

I had one back in the day where I was blackmailed to accuse a specific person in every post and not say I was blackmailed. I made it really stupid obvious talking about whatever and adding at the end of every post "Also, I feel X is scum"

If all I had was a vote to work with I would use it to communicate. Thats less valid today where a vote becomes permanent so potential of a clever T! Thoth holding their vote to look at future options. Although I do get the concern given they did not just snap-vote Luna.

The one time I've seen a Blackmailer, it functioned far more similarly to what you're describing than this one, more a set of "do's" and "don'ts" than an effective ban on posting. Would love to see more of that here.

And yeah, I'm still pondering what his reason for not voting so far could be. I could see motivations for both scum and town on that level.

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

If they kill me and you survive to LYLO we should automatically win right? So in this case, I'd prefer to be killed.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:16 AM (post #109)

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

If they kill me and you survive to LYLO we should automatically win right? So in this case, I'd prefer to be killed.

This IS LyLo

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 3:06 PM (post #68)

An added advantage of this situation is that killing between Me/Kohai/WF forces mafia to kill Luna giving the flip that confirms Thoth as scum -or- enter a 3p Lylo with 1 vote that will hardline be against them.

Thats a huge advantage for a 3P Lylo. I really think we should make the lynch exactly one of us three and leave Luna/Thoth for tommorow given we put the wolves in a loose loose situation if we play it out this way.

I can understand the logic behind that, from a math stand point you are taking the odds from a 50/50 to a 33/33/33 though, so I am not entirely sure if its the best option here.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 10:17 PM (post #110)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:16 AM (post #109)

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

If they kill me and you survive to LYLO we should automatically win right? So in this case, I'd prefer to be killed.

This IS LyLo

This is mylo, a soldier wins at parity usually.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 4:01 PM (post #71)

All I can say is that I’m amazed anyone thinks I would either blindly fake claim Trump here or ask about him as one of the two characters I could ask were in the game and actually receive a “no” for his presence in a game about Epstein Island.

Also, feeling that tinfoil hat again: why are we writing off a Thoth/Luna pairing again? Because of bussing?

I mean you should always be wary of a bus, but a bus is just incredibly unnecessary here. There isn't much in the way of town confirmation going on in this game, so for me to bus Thoth here would be pretty extra for no reason. Also giving helz a cop clear would be counter productive, when he would be an ideal mislynch target for scum in a thoth/luna world.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:41 PM (post #108)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 11:31 PM (post #106)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:09 PM (post #104)

Now that I think about it, we can still get one point of engagement from Thoth, which is actually posting a vote. Whether you're actually Blackmailed or scum and just playing this up, you still have a vote. Not saying you should do it now, but particularly if you are sussing Luna's claim, now's the time to clarify.

Pretty much my view.

So I am very familiar with Blackmailers. It was totally normal where I was from. But the entire thing was that they would essentially write a contract saying what can and can not happen then the person blackmailed would do whatever to squirm out of it.

I had one back in the day where I was blackmailed to accuse a specific person in every post and not say I was blackmailed. I made it really stupid obvious talking about whatever and adding at the end of every post "Also, I feel X is scum"

If all I had was a vote to work with I would use it to communicate. Thats less valid today where a vote becomes permanent so potential of a clever T! Thoth holding their vote to look at future options. Although I do get the concern given they did not just snap-vote Luna.

The one time I've seen a Blackmailer, it functioned far more similarly to what you're describing than this one, more a set of "do's" and "don'ts" than an effective ban on posting. Would love to see more of that here.

And yeah, I'm still pondering what his reason for not voting so far could be. I could see motivations for both scum and town on that level.

Yeah. Every time I have seen this its a silencer. I want to call bullshit but obviously a townie flipped dealing with it so whatever..

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:16 PM (post #109)

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

If they kill me and you survive to LYLO we should automatically win right? So in this case, I'd prefer to be killed.

What do you mean? I am confused

So it really depends on how exactly the soldier works. Do you win automatically on getting to lylo or do you literally have to be the last person alive? Knowing this I think will effect how we resolve this.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:38 PM (post #115)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:16 PM (post #109)

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

If they kill me and you survive to LYLO we should automatically win right? So in this case, I'd prefer to be killed.

What do you mean? I am confused

It depends on how your role works. The way I understand Soldier is that town automatically win if you survive to the end. Basically meaning if they kill me tonight, they have to place all of their chips on getting you lynched tomorrow or town will win. Considering you were investigated innocent, my flip as cop will make mislynching you harder unless they try to spin your the godfather tomorrow. I think in this situation scum would force a 50/50 between whiteflame and pie. So me dying would be ideal. If they choose to kill you and not me I get another night of results in LYLO. They are basically fucked with your role man, at the very least they can hope for is a 50/50 tomorrow, but they are forced to kill between you and me.

whiteflame and kohai, not whiteflame and pie lol*

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:42 PM (post #117)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:38 PM (post #115)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:16 PM (post #109)

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

If they kill me and you survive to LYLO we should automatically win right? So in this case, I'd prefer to be killed.

What do you mean? I am confused

It depends on how your role works. The way I understand Soldier is that town automatically win if you survive to the end. Basically meaning if they kill me tonight, they have to place all of their chips on getting you lynched tomorrow or town will win. Considering you were investigated innocent, my flip as cop will make mislynching you harder unless they try to spin your the godfather tomorrow. I think in this situation scum would force a 50/50 between whiteflame and pie. So me dying would be ideal. If they choose to kill you and not me I get another night of results in LYLO. They are basically fucked with your role man, at the very least they can hope for is a 50/50 tomorrow, but they are forced to kill between you and me.

You dying ends the game. I have no winning mechanic. If I did I would have lied about my label.

I will maintain that my claim is that I am a citizen. That 'if' hypothetically I was lying its as a PGO or BP. Scum can WIFOM that out.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:49 PM (post #119)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:42 PM (post #117)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:38 PM (post #115)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:16 PM (post #109)

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

If they kill me and you survive to LYLO we should automatically win right? So in this case, I'd prefer to be killed.

What do you mean? I am confused

It depends on how your role works. The way I understand Soldier is that town automatically win if you survive to the end. Basically meaning if they kill me tonight, they have to place all of their chips on getting you lynched tomorrow or town will win. Considering you were investigated innocent, my flip as cop will make mislynching you harder unless they try to spin your the godfather tomorrow. I think in this situation scum would force a 50/50 between whiteflame and pie. So me dying would be ideal. If they choose to kill you and not me I get another night of results in LYLO. They are basically fucked with your role man, at the very least they can hope for is a 50/50 tomorrow, but they are forced to kill between you and me.

You dying ends the game. I have no winning mechanic. If I did I would have lied about my label.

I will maintain that my claim is that I am a citizen. That 'if' hypothetically I was lying its as a PGO or BP. Scum can WIFOM that out.

I thought you claimed soldier? Maybe I misunderstood.