Deltarune Mafia: Chapter 2

Alright, much as I'd prefer to leave this on the backburner (and frankly, I'd still prefer Thoth's claim first), it's clearly drawing some attention away and I'd like to understand what the issue is.

RT, in response to me earlier in this DP when I asked if anyone had become "Fragile," you said:

I have nothing about being fragile; however given that I'm proven to be popular my popular mechanic may have been disabled.

What led you to the conclusion that your role might have been disabled? I get that this was connected to the whole "anti-claim might have resulted in some outcome" discussion, but this really did seem to come out of left field as a possibility.

Is it at all common for roles to be disabled? It feels like if mafia had that ability they wouldn't use it on popular.

VTL RT

Why not test it again?

Votes:

Thoth (2/5): Whiteflame, McDonalds

RationalTheist (2/5): Mikal, Rex

Mikal (1/5): RT

The fact that people are able to do stuff like this amazes me. (MAJOR CHAPTER 3 SPOILERS)

I've already soft claimed too much so I won't reveal my character or gender. I feel like it may have been better if I didn't make it bold.

84 froM dp1 also just bleeds tmi

I suppose its possible that there is a Popular Enabler in theory. Its a really stupid idea though and no mod would ever do it.

Basically we have a four way POE between RT, Mikal, Shining, and Thoth at this point. There are nine players left. Assuming two scum, this is the worst case scenario:

DP 2: XOOOOXOOO 25% chance to hit scum in POE

DP 3: XOOOXOO 33% chance to hit scum in POE

DP 4: XOOXO 50% chance to hit scum in POE

Gameover if we guess incorrectly

Scum will likely NK the town players outside of the POE up until we hit scum, at which point they will target town players within it. We have a 25% chance to not hit scum within the POE before the end of the game, a 50% chance to not hit them before the last DP. Keep this in mind when determining who to protect and who to investigate. Also keep in mind that if we hit scum early we will town confirm several players.

If we hit scum today (0ML in POE):

DP 3: XOOOOOO 20% chance to hit scum

DP 4: XOOOO 25% chance to hit scum

DP 5: XOO 33% chance to hit scum

Gameover if incorrect - 40% chance to win

If we hit scum DP 3 (1ML in POE):

DP 4: XOOOO 33% chance to hit scum

DP 5: XOO 50% chance to hit scum

Gameover if incorrect - 67% chance to win

If we hit scum DP 4 (2 ML in POE):

DP 5: XOO 50% chance to hit scum

Game over if incorrect - 50% chance to win

Oddly enough, the math works out when you factor out scum incentives when nking that the longer we take to lynch scum in the POE the more town confirmed players we take into the late game when there are less places for scum to hide and our chances to hit them actually become quite high. The middle option is actually best, but really the takeaway is that we shouldn't worry too much about hitting scum today and just gather info so we can solve the late game.

Oh actually I was wrong about DP 5, that would be XOO cause scum would kill within POE NP4, making it a 33% chance to win. So hitting scum DP 3 is ideal, today is meh and hitting them at the end would be a little worse than hitting them today.

Why not test it again?

Because we can only test it by putting him to enough votes to die, and, if he flips town, we wasted a day and gave mafia a free kill?

What is POE? Process of elimination? Rex, it took me a bit to figure out how to read the Xs and Os, but I think I got it. The bold letters are people on the shortlist, X is scum, and O are town. Right? I wouldn't call 1/4 of those = scum worst-case scenario, since you never know what weirdness is going on behind the scenes, but I think I agree with your analysis.

I am willing to hard-claim if that's what it takes to get me off the shortlist, but I am unconvinced that there is guaranteed to be a scum among the three people that RT saw. Maybe 3/4 or 4/5 chance this is what it appears to be. For that matter, I'm willing to die if y'all think it necessarily to town-confirm others.

I'm curious what kind of anti-claim mechanics have been common in previous games here. Do they tend to be things that only affect one or maybe a few claimants? If not, then mass-claiming might still be okay. Many can stand where one would fall. I know that's what scum would say if they wanted to trick everyone into claiming, though. If y'all pressure me into hard-claiming, then I 100% want to see Mikal and Shining claimed too, which Mikal has. If Shining claimed, then I forgot, sorry, and I'm going to need to re-read this thread a few times to understand everything, but for now I want to show I am active.

I don't really townread Mikal but I'm not ready to vote there, and I know I am not scum, so, tentatively and assuming RT was truthing:

VTL Shining

Why would scum kill within POE NP4?

I am willing to hard-claim if that's what it takes to get me off the shortlist, but I am unconvinced that there is guaranteed to be a scum among the three people that RT saw. Maybe 3/4 or 4/5 chance this is what it appears to be. For that matter, I'm willing to die if y'all think it necessarily to town-confirm others.

That's why I included RT in the POE for a total POE of four. Either he is lying about the three names and is scum or scum is within the three names he listed.

Why would scum kill within POE NP4

Lets say you are scum. We lynch RT DP2, Mikal DP3, and you DP4. At this point, Shining is confirmed town as he's the only living person from the original POE and we've found the scum (you) within that POE. Because of this, he would be the obvious NK target because bringing a confirmed townie into the final DP makes it much, much harder for scum to win.

I am sincerely at a loss regarding this vote. You should be more confident than anyone here that you have the name of at least one scum on that list of three. Why is my claim your priority?

Yeah its very interesting that he isn't wanting to focus on his supposed results.

All the above analysis is weird

1) wf is scum - rt would also have to be scum

2) wf is town - rt could be town but also could be scum and lying about the 3 people he got

3) rt has had some very weird tmi info

test his popular again, if it sticks. It’s more likely to be true. I am pretty hard locked on wf so if the popular is confirmed again, we pick between Thoth and shinning.

I don’t trust a dreamer outright. It’s something to consider

If you don't trust a dreamer, or caroler, or whatever it is, why aren't you suspecting RT?

I am, slightly. I buy wf. I wanted to see if he fake claimed some result because I knew he didn’t have any and he was claiming a visiting role.

i think it’s very likely wf is town based on his responses and I think it’s somewhat likely rt is town. I’d rather the test the popular again because of how he’s had tmi a few times. But if popular works again, I’m okay with going shinning or Thoth.

i will admit I’m very confused about the split. It’s not dark vs light or queen and king vs all.

I feel like I've hinted every way I can to prevent this, and you are literally the person that should be picking up what I'm putting down, so fuck it. I'll embrace the fact that I'm almost certainly dead tonight: I targeted you. I'm the Caroler. Happy? I know I'm not.

I feel like you were pretty fvcking obvious here. smh

I’m heavily leaning Thoth over shining. Something shining said made me lean town towards him a bit. It’s not really AI but it show he said it, read me as genuine. Prob will land on Thoth if the popular works again

I’m the beholder. I get informative information back if I target an information role. I was told

you did not receive information. You implied you were visiting someone, so I wanted to see if you were going to lie and fake claim a result.

Interesting. I want to make a note here, that this was a role me and mike were heavily considering fake claiming in whiteflames bacteria game. I have never seen this role before we discussed using it there, it would be mad convenient if casey pulled this role out of a hat.

Man, if this is real, it's such a frustrating reason to draw attention to me, especially after I said twice that I did not receive a result. I get that your vote wasn't up on me, but getting my claim should not have been necessary to confirm this.

I'll leave it there for now, though.

Its not just frustrating, that should be downright suspicious. What the hell?

Thus, town Beholders should not be included in setups where massclaiming would otherwise be powerful.)

Beholder can be both town and mafia. In this case the beholder is more likely a mafia role. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Beholder#Use_&_Balance

Not to mention we've been told by the mod that many claims will hurt town.

Thus, town Beholders should not be included in setups where massclaiming would otherwise be powerful.)

Beholder can be both town and mafia. In this case the beholder is more likely a mafia role. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Beholder#Use_&_Balance

Not to mention we've been told by the mod that many claims will hurt town.

I really don't appreciate WF outting his role.

He basically got coerced into it.

I also don't understand why he wants to test RT again, it seems pretty foolish to me. Ah well. I do think the way you guys tested RT's popular are a little silly.

That was rex that suggested testing him again.

vtl mikal

Votes:

Thoth (2/5): Whiteflame, McDonalds

RationalTheist (2/5): Mikal, Rex

Mikal (2/5): RT, Lunatic

Shining (1/5): Thoth

Fun fact: In chapters 1 and 2 of Deltarune, Susie's Rude Buster and Red Buster spells do extra damage if you press Z anytime before the attack reaches the enemy. In chapters 3 and 4 however, this was changed to only working if Z is pressed at the same time it reaches the enemy.

The one person who should have had the most reason to accept the hints I was giving him kept pushing for me to claim, so I either would have remained a major focus for the rest of this DP and split decisions around my vote or I would have been pushed to claim later, which meant wasting more time either way. I don't like it, either, but I didn't see another avenue.

I'm sorry. I literally cannot pick up on subtle hints, sarcasm, and certain humor.

So despite the fact that it’s likely to only make me more of a target during the NP, I’ll clarify part of why I’m townreading RT. The Caroler role has specific stipulations, namely that my target has to not be “away” when I use it. That’s why I targeted him: he’d already claimed Popular, and unless he was lying as scum, he likely didn’t have a visiting role as well. That, coupled with the fact that he got a result at all (he would not have been informed of it if he was away at the time, I checked) tells me that, at minimum, he wasn’t involved in any visiting night actions during NP1.

That gives him a stronger alibi than anyone else in this game so far, hence I’m less concerned with verifying his Popular role is still active.

I think nobody else in the POE should claim. If having claimed makes one vulnerable somehow, we don't want the town-confirmed people that we take into the lategame to be handicapped somehow because they were pressured to claim just because they were in POE. Instead, they should be targeted with investigative roles. So I think you two shouldn't say a peep about your role or character unless you have critical results.

Unvote

VTL MIkal

I’m fine with dying if we want to start with me in the Poe. Busy anyway since I’m catching up with vaca

if we go that way, look at Luna.

Im berdley, so it’s not light vs dark split. I’m just to lazy to argue against my lynch but I do think scum would push it.

I clarified specifically why I pushed wf, and why I’m wanting to test rt. If RT is scum, those dreamer results could run us into the ground. I think that’s unlikely but it’s possible and wanted to see if wf would claim a result so I could cc.

but yeah, I don’t have the energy or care enough to make a case. If you lynch me, you lose a strong investigation role.

I do think wf is a lock but is prob dead anyway. Both of the people looking at me also like to dominate the game by taking out people who talk and try to have thoughts.

but yeah wf is town. Prob dies and when he does look at the Poe shinning or Thoth

other could be Luna or skep.