Deltarune Mafia: Chapter 2

Votes:

Mikal (3/5): RT, Lunatic, Rex

Thoth (2/5): Whiteflame, McDonalds

RationalTheist (1/5): Mikal

Shining (1/5): Thoth

Well, there is a man here.

I won't pretend I'm likely to survive this NP, it's almost certainly not going to happen, so I'll give my thoughts before what seems like a likely lynch of Mikal. While I'm at it, though, I'd really prefer to get another character or role claim before the DP ends. Much as Rex seems to have a problem with it, I don't see it as a substantial risk and I think failing to better inform this lynch is a bigger risk. My vote's on Thoth, though I'd be fine getting a claim from either him or Shining. Doesn't seem like I'm getting much support for that, though, so here we are.

Anyway, I'll give what reads I have, so let's at least hold off ending the DP until then, please.

Low-key it kinda feels good to die when town plays shitty lol.

Yeah... this has been a rough one.

Ok.

Town reads:

Whiteflame

Mikal (slightly)

Lunatic

RT (slightly still don't get why you claimed immediately)

Thoth kind of soft claimed at the beginning round.

Luna as well but so far hard to read

Scum lean

RexFavilla for wagoning the vote for WF early and why the fuck are we testing popular again?

Shining (not much to go on so far but you're in the 3 names)

Ultra cause inactivity

Thoth because of something you said earlier (but I don't want to be too specific)

Going to post my townreads first, will need to dig into the rest.

RationalTheist - I'll start with my strongest town read. Role confirmed, didn't move during the NP (read #176 for details), so he's distinctly unlikely to be scum since he couldn't have committed the NK or any other night action. Yeah, Mikal's right that there's some TMI going on, but those are behavioral reads that run contrary to mechanical information that makes him pretty unlikely to be scum.

McDonaldsReal - I understood the push to get a claim from him last DP since he's new to the game, but I'm still largely townreading him. Yeah, it's all behavioral, but I'm seeing a lot of towntells in his responses to being pushed and the pressure on me. He's not locked in, but I just don't see a noob scum operating like this.

Mikal - So I know he's the likely lynch this DP, but I really don't think he's scum. The way this DP played out has left me frustrated on a lot of levels, but if Mikal's goal was to seek my claim for scummy reasons, he did a terrible job of it. I was near certain that he didn't have a Tracking role because if he'd seen me visit RT, he wouldn't have sought my claim. And if he was scum, I don't think he steers clear of VTLing me like he did here. Maybe scum Mikal makes this fake claim and pairs it with an apparently pretty spot on character for the role, but this seems baked into the structure of this game really well. It's a way to get around anti-claim and test those that do claim. I don't think it was used well here (personal bias), but in a game with at least a Follower and a Caroler to yield investigative results, his claim makes a good deal of sense.

I won't pretend I'm likely to survive this NP, it's almost certainly not going to happen, so I'll give my thoughts before what seems like a likely lynch of Mikal. While I'm at it, though, I'd really prefer to get another character or role claim before the DP ends. Much as Rex seems to have a problem with it, I don't see it as a substantial risk and I think failing to better inform this lynch is a bigger risk. My vote's on Thoth, though I'd be fine getting a claim from either him or Shining. Doesn't seem like I'm getting much support for that, though, so here we are.

I'll sheep this

VTL Thoth

For activity

I'm also still not happy that Thoth basically admitted to cheating.

Just opened the thread to catch up and re-read what I went over earlier. Casey said he would prefer if we didn't talk about this, but I think I need to.

I said to my Discord playgroup is that I started playing on a forum a few days ago, that they have a meta of soft-claiming your character's gender on day 1. After that, my only addition to the discussion was suggesting that someone could claim null-gender if their character has not self-identified or gender does not apply to them. I just wanted their thoughts from a gameplay perspective on having everyone claim some aspect of their character on day 1 to make future fake-claiming harder. I never asked for help, I never shared any details of this game or any other game, and I never even specified which forum I was talking about. I did learn about the everyone-claim-gender meta from this thread, but I am under the impression that it has been meta for a while, in which case I could have learned about it from reading finished games. This was a wrong thing to do because it could have influenced whether or not I soft-claimed like that, but that never crossed my mind until hours after I posted in this thread what they had said about it.

That last paragraph was all out-of-game and out-of-character. I pinky-promise that it is 100 percent undiluted truth to the best of my knowledge, under penalty of perjury. If I am lying about any of that, may I get run over by a semi truck.

I clarified specifically why I pushed wf, and why I’m wanting to test rt. 

But whiteflame did specifically tell you multiple times he didn't have results and you still kept pushing him. Why?

Shining - Largely neutral, maybe very slight town. That early willingness to claim was definitely a factor, though even if he was scum, he'd likely have been forced into it. Maybe he just recognized that it was inevitable if he pushed back. It's WIFOM, I get it, but that initial response from Shining just came off as townie and its the main reason I've put attention on Mikal and Thoth first. Since then, his interactions have been pretty neutral, though I'm reading a bit more into his lack of knowledge about what was going on when he returned for post 139. Don't think scum Shining returns with partial information about what happened like that.

Thoth - By process of elimination, he's most likely to be scum out of these three, though I'll admit I don't have a good read on him. His response to the push for his claim is to say that he's willing to do it (while also undercutting how useful RT's result is) and says his death could "town-confirm others" - not entirely sure what he meant by that. The push on Shining makes sense given his position, he kind of has to regardless of his affiliation. I could see some of this being hedging, but a lot would depend on his claim.

Lunatic - Neutral to slight town lean. He started off this DP with a post saying Rex is likely town, which is a weird choice if he's scum (didn't really understand why RT agreed, but then I figured something role related was going on and got more focused on RT's results). His POE has largely looked like mine throughout, and though we've come down in different places on Mikal, I get where he's coming at that read from and, frankly, if I wasn't psychoanalyzing a lot of Mikal's choices, I might be in the same place.

RexFavilla - Neutral. I feel like every time I try to read Rex behaviorally, I'll always have to temper that read with my experience from previous games with him, since I'd probably scumread him pretty often otherwise. I haven't loved his reads this game, though that tracks with last game where he was town, and he's at least analyzing outcomes of each DP with pretty good detail. None of that really pushes me in either direction, it's just consistent. The townread from Luna is coming from somewhere, and even if I'm not sure where, it's the main reason why I might consider him town.

Ultracrepidarian - Slight scum read. Lack of activity is really hurting Ultra this DP, just so little to go off of and it did not help that he said he was going to post more and just didn't. Last DP, he fished for softclaim ideas early and was one of the early softclaims himself, and popped out some abbreviated reads after saying he'd be absent on a trip (might have just been an attempt to post some activity before he was going on said trip). So partially due to the fishing and partially the weird activity, Ultra's just rubbing me the wrong way. Everything's very minor, but that's part of the problem.

but yeah, I don’t have the energy or care enough to make a case. If you lynch me, you lose a strong investigation role.

Also I would not consider this a STRONG investigation role, in fact I dont think Ive ever seen this role used in a game before me and you discussed using it as a fake claim.

Low-key it kinda feels good to die when town plays shitty lol.

Town is playing shitty because you have a couple of votes that you are "too lazy" to defend against? By definition, if you are town here you are also playing shitty. I get you are on vacation, but come on.

Mikal - So I know he's the likely lynch this DP, but I really don't think he's scum. The way this DP played out has left me frustrated on a lot of levels, but if Mikal's goal was to seek my claim for scummy reasons, he did a terrible job of it. I was near certain that he didn't have a Tracking role because if he'd seen me visit RT, he wouldn't have sought my claim. And if he was scum, I don't think he steers clear of VTLing me like he did here. Maybe scum Mikal makes this fake claim and pairs it with an apparently pretty spot on character for the role, but this seems baked into the structure of this game really well. It's a way to get around anti-claim and test those that do claim. I don't think it was used well here (personal bias), but in a game with at least a Follower and a Caroler to yield investigative results, his claim makes a good deal of sense.

Interesting town read. I guess my question is what was his goal really in pushing you? He hasn't really made it understood why he was pushing you when you had already specifically told him you didn't get a result. The whole circumstances around his push on you didn't make a ton of sense, and felt almost like he thought he could catch you in something scummy for mislynch potential, and it seemed at this point he was confident enough in his position that he didn't think there would be major back lash for doing it. I just don't understand what as town he was trying to accomplish, and again, it is really weird to me that the only time I have ever seen this role talked about or discussed let alone used was when me and mikal talked about fake claiming this in your biology game.

and why the fuck are we testing popular again

This was Mikal's idea originally, I was just okay with it because I was bored at the time and it would generate activity.

Unvote

I will go over shit again tomorrow.

I'm also still not happy that Thoth basically admitted to cheating.

I mean I don't really think talking about a game with a bunch of strangers who aren't familiar with the site let alone even have accounts here really qualifies as cheating. That's like saying me talking about the mafia game to my girlfriend is cheating lol

The townread from Luna is coming from somewhere, and even if I'm not sure where, it's the main reason why I might consider him town.

In regards to rex, the fact that he hasn't even mentioned this kind of makes me scratch my head. If he never saw me make that post for example its probably extra townie, but now I am wondering if he's scum and acknowledged it and is playing along.

I will say what happened favors him being town still, but its not out of the question he is scum.

Interesting town read. I guess my question is what was his goal really in pushing you? He hasn't really made it understood why he was pushing you when you had already specifically told him you didn't get a result. The whole circumstances around his push on you didn't make a ton of sense, and felt almost like he thought he could catch you in something scummy for mislynch potential, and it seemed at this point he was confident enough in his position that he didn't think there would be major back lash for doing it. I just don't understand what as town he was trying to accomplish, and again, it is really weird to me that the only time I have ever seen this role talked about or discussed let alone used was when me and mikal talked about fake claiming this in your biology game.

I'm still not entirely sure. It's strange to me that he didn't push me himself, at least not with a vote. He said over and over that he wanted my role, but I still don't really get the "why" of it, since i had told him I didn't get a result. If he was scum and doing this, he was relying on others to pressure it, which is odd for scum. Doesn't really fit Mikal's scum MO to set up misinformation and then not make a bigger racket about it.

As for his mentioning this role in that game, that's a fair point I hadn't really considered. It does stand as odd that he mentioned it there and it's appeared here as well. I think you pointed out as well that it's odd for him to claim it's a strong investigative role. It's useful in a distinctive way, but it's not strong. I can't tell if that's just weird defense because Mikal isn't that invested in this game or if it's part of an effort to derail the lynch, though it's odd regardless.

I'll rethink the read.

In regards to rex, the fact that he hasn't even mentioned this kind of makes me scratch my head. If he never saw me make that post for example its probably extra townie, but now I am wondering if he's scum and acknowledged it and is playing along.

I will say what happened favors him being town still, but its not out of the question he is scum.

Appreciate you clarifying a bit. I'm between Rex and Ultra for a second scum outside of the three RT received, though neither of them are my focus this DP for obvious reasons.

In regards to rex, the fact that he hasn't even mentioned this kind of makes me scratch my head. If he never saw me make that post for example its probably extra townie, but now I am wondering if he's scum and acknowledged it and is playing along.

I saw it and took note of it. Just playing this DP close to the chest. I figured you had some kind of result but didn't want to press the issue or draw attention to it when there was more important stuff to pay attention to. Something like the Whiteflame situation is the unfortunate result of focusing too much on roles and results. Honestly wish I had logged in once he started beating RT over the head with the fact that he was responsible for the oracle results. Would have unvoted.

Honestly y'all claim way too easy. I would've taken that shit to the grave even as town. Punish town for pushing for claims that we have no business outing DP2.

Votes:

Thoth (3/5): Whiteflame, McDonalds, RT

Mikal (1/5): Lunatic

RationalTheist (1/5): Mikal

Shining (1/5): Thoth

For some strange reason, for just a brief moment... You thought you saw through your hand.

I can't tell if that's just weird defense because Mikal isn't that invested in this game or if it's part of an effort to derail the lynch, though it's odd regardless.

Thats the other thing, I didn't really get the vibe he wasnt invested in this game, he only mentioned it when he had three votes on him (ironically I think all three votes happened for seperate reasons). I am kind of not buying the wifom there. Like even if he was scum I can see him just not caring about getting lynched because he's on vacation (Honestly I wouldn't care either, vacation is more important than a forum game and there will be a million more mafia games in the future). It just seems like hes hyper inflating the pressure on him when I was probably the only one seriously scum reading him at the time lol

I saw it and took note of it. Just playing this DP close to the chest. I figured you had some kind of result but didn't want to press the issue or draw attention to it when there was more important stuff to pay attention to. Something like the Whiteflame situation is the unfortunate result of focusing too much on roles and results. Honestly wish I had logged in once he started beating RT over the head with the fact that he was responsible for the oracle results. Would have unvoted.

Honestly y'all claim way too easy. I would've taken that shit to the grave even as town. Punish town for pushing for claims that we have no business outing DP2.

Nah nevermind, this whole response, reinforces the idea you are probably town lol.

unvote

Vote RationalTheist

Something hit me as I was re-reading this thread.

I'd be happy to full claim my character if enough people want me to. However, I was targeted with a night action and heard music about shining, mikal, and thoth (whatever that means).

(Post 2) I might be reading something into nothing, but "(whatever that means)" doesn't sit right with me. It's like you're making it up and you want to remind us that you most definitely don't know what it this ability does since you most definitely are not making it up. I remember one time on Discord, and this is from a finished game so it's okay to talk about, someone claimed to be "survivor (winshare)". He soon died and flipped winsteal survivor. He emphasized share probably because steal was on his mind.

I also think whiteflame saying he's never heard of a role that gives someone else a dreamer effect, and later claiming that role, seems wrong, like he and RT are working together to make this up and there was a miscommunication in mafia chat. (Can mafia talk to each other during the day here?) Yeah, I know it can be okay to lie as town and then go back on it later, but still.

As for what to do with it, we’ll have to be careful how many we pursue for a claim, even just among those three due to the potential anti-claim mechanic.

(Post 18) This sentence feels like it could have been said in mafia chat.

I am hypothesizing that RT and whiteflame are both scum and they made up the caroler to trick us into lynching me, Shining, and Mikal, after which they would have parity. Assuming exactly one death per phase, scum needs us to mislynch on three day phases, including this one, to get parity, and that's what a fake Caroler claim could do. After the first two fail, they can say we just need to get the third one, town follows it, shah mat. It also pressures those three into claiming, which might interact with some anti-claim mechanic we can't see. It's too perfect for scum. I know it's brazen, but what does it matter? If I'm right and their plan works, we'll have no chance to punish their brazenness.

Another piece of evidence: I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's slightly sus to me that whiteflame's 'research' to find the Caroler role (post 20) apparently only took a few minutes based on post timestamps.

Would anyone agree that, out of the 7 people alive today who are not RT and whiteflame, Shining, Mikal, and I were the most sus, or at least one of the most sus groups of three players you could pick? If so, that's strong Bayesian evidence that they picked three players whom they knew would all sound like plausible POE candidates. I know I'm town and that some side-eyes were cast at me during day 1. I also think they have recently pressured me the hardest out of the three supposed caroler names because they realized that I am picking things up too quickly for their liking and were afraid I would catch onto them.

RT should go first because he's on the POE list anyway, so, if he flips town, we will have still made progress and probably cleared whiteflame.

I'd also like to say that nobody but RT and whiteflame have given me klaxon-esque scumreads at any time in this game.

One more thing. How common is Caroler? Have any of you seen that role before in any game you've played? The fact whiteflame either did or pretended to do research to find an article about it tells me it's not a well-known role. Does Casey tend to use obscure roles? If Caroler is rarer than the roles Casey tends to put in his games, that tips the scales further against RT and whiteflame.

Asked Casey. I can’t get results off whiteflame but I target his target, I would learn those results. Makes sense from a balance perspective

Could you explain what you mean by target his target and learn those results?

Others can pick up on more subtle cues that may be more telling.

(Post 60) Please, for Lord's sake, flip scum so I can feel vindicated in catching the potential irony here.

Re: post 191. When I said my death could town-confirm others, that was a poorly phrased way of saying I was willing to be the first lemming off the POE cliff if we wanted to go down the road of lynching them all.

I would be willing to lynch either Mikal or Thoth, though I think I favor Mikal because of his push on WF. Thoth does just feel a bit off but I can't put my finger on it. I'm in Stockholm for the week so this game took a back seat but hopefully I'll be able to read this thread and look through thoths posts more thoroughly.

It is also a little strange that RT kept mentioning his role could have been deactivated hits me as odd still but not worth considering yet

It is also a little strange that RT kept mentioning his role could have been deactivated hits me as odd still but not worth considering yet

Takes one to know one. This is EXACTLY the kind of self-targeted speculation I did while tightrope-walking on a fake claim as brazen as what I think RT is doing, and much more complicated.

Thoth does just feel a bit off but I can't put my finger on it.

Would you be surprised to learn that I occasionally overhear people say this about me outside social deduction games?

This is EXACTLY the kind of self-targeted speculation I did

Because it generates FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) about what your role is, and FUD is scum's best friend, especially when it surrounds the role you are lying about.

Who started the VTNL wagon on day 1? Whiteflame. That led to 9 players left today. Mislynch today, we start tomorrow with 7. Mislynch again, we start DP4 with 5, by which time scum has not reached parity.

Let's say we had voted someone out day 1. Then we would have 8 today. Mislynch, 6 left at start of DP3. Mislynch again, you go down to 5 and someone dies in the night to reach parity.

Considering these numbers, VTNLing could have seemed like the right call because mislynching on day 1 would have cost us a day.

However, if you were scum and expected town to waste days 2, 3, and 4 anyway, then VTNLing would only set you back by a day you did not need, while also denying the town valuable information and possibly saving a scum or town-harmful neutral. I think whiteflame and/or RT came up with the fake caroler claim plot and crunched the numbers, and then whiteflame became the wagoneer because he was the more trusted of the two.

Can't say Thoth's scenario didn't occur to me before, alongside the scenario where WF is town and RT is scum and RT gave a fake list to secure three mislynches. It might be worth it to make RT the lynch today just because his flip as town will secure the results as valid. Because it there's no scum in the POE, following it will cost us the game.

im surprised everyone keeps looking at my way when I have explained my logic multiple times. I knew wf didn’t get results and wanted to lock him into something so he could not backtrack or alter. All he said was “when did I say I had results”. If forced to claim and he was scum there is a chance he could have tried to fabricate something and I had the ability to cc.

I think wf is town. The reason I wanted to test rt was because if he is scum and we believe him, the game is over

very unlikely - wf and rt are scum and made this up

more possible- wf is town and rt is scum

most likely and what I think - both are prob town blocked.

I just wanted to test again before we went down the rabbit hole and killed ourselves on the off chance 2 is possible.

also my role is actually powerful. It confirms a role. You know how many games cop has been a fc or mafia can fake claim results. It allows us to mostly town lock someone unless you assume I and that person are scum

past that because it’s not a dreamer and a caroler. I’m assuming partial balance because I can results if I target the person who is caroled ( if I targeted rt and not wf)

wf targeting David makes sense as popular can’t move and wf wanted to confirm his result but would stick.

i think there is one between shining and Thoth. I mostly buy the dreamer result and will buy it more if we rest popular again. All of David’s tmi bothers me and would rather confirm that there isn’t a 1x use or some weird mafia thing. Affiliation is not confirmation. Surprised Luna does not bite with this as we have discussed it multiple times

so

shinning and Thoth

and second is between Luna ultra and skep

at least initial thoughts. I would assume someone pushing me is scum. I buy wf is town but I don’t I’ll say I really dislike how he town reads but is willing not to defend me and let me die. Seems like town cred farming but I’d have to do mental gymnastics to think he’s scum as it would mean him and David have to be the team. Think that’s unlikely