Deltarune Mafia: Chapter 2

I also think whiteflame saying he's never heard of a role that gives someone else a dreamer effect, and later claiming that role, seems wrong, like he and RT are working together to make this up and there was a miscommunication in mafia chat. (Can mafia talk to each other during the day here?) Yeah, I know it can be okay to lie as town and then go back on it later, but still.

I think you're making a very simple situation super complicated to paint us as scum. Why would I, the claimed Caroler, state that I hadn't heard of the role? Because that makes scum less likely to mark me as the Caroler. Sadly, it also made RT less likely to mark me that way. If you think I can pull of this level of frustration as part of a faked back-and-forth with RT, you give me far too much credit.

I am hypothesizing that RT and whiteflame are both scum and they made up the caroler to trick us into lynching me, Shining, and Mikal, after which they would have parity. Assuming exactly one death per phase, scum needs us to mislynch on three day phases, including this one, to get parity, and that's what a fake Caroler claim could do. After the first two fail, they can say we just need to get the third one, town follows it, shah mat. It also pressures those three into claiming, which might interact with some anti-claim mechanic we can't see. It's too perfect for scum. I know it's brazen, but what does it matter? If I'm right and their plan works, we'll have no chance to punish their brazenness.

So I tied myself directly to my scum partner in the most brazen way possible with a role that scum would either have to continuously RB or otherwise kill off to stop, making my survival in subsequent NPs automatically pretty sus? Sure, why not?

Another piece of evidence: I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's slightly sus to me that whiteflame's 'research' to find the Caroler role (post 20) apparently only took a few minutes based on post timestamps.

...Excuse me? Since when does searching the role on Mafia Universe take any more than a few minutes? Also, and I'm surprised I have to point this out again, I already knew I was the Caroler at this point. That research was already in hand before the start of the DP, so of course it wouldn't take substantial time.

Would anyone agree that, out of the 7 people alive today who are not RT and whiteflame, Shining, Mikal, and I were the most sus, or at least one of the most sus groups of three players you could pick? If so, that's strong Bayesian evidence that they picked three players whom they knew would all sound like plausible POE candidates. I know I'm town and that some side-eyes were cast at me during day 1. I also think they have recently pressured me the hardest out of the three supposed caroler names because they realized that I am picking things up too quickly for their liking and were afraid I would catch onto them.

The first part of this is entirely WIFOM, and the second part doesn't track with what has happened this DP. Both Shining and Mikal were pressured before you, and the only reason Shining got off the hook is because attention was drawn to me in large part by the person you believe is my apparent scum partner. Also, way to toot your own horn at the end there.

One more thing. How common is Caroler? Have any of you seen that role before in any game you've played? The fact whiteflame either did or pretended to do research to find an article about it tells me it's not a well-known role. Does Casey tend to use obscure roles? If Caroler is rarer than the roles Casey tends to put in his games, that tips the scales further against RT and whiteflame.

Literally my first time seeing this role in a game. This is modpsych, but yeah, Casey does use a variety of roles in their games, including obscure ones.

Others can pick up on more subtle cues that may be more telling.

(Post 60) Please, for Lord's sake, flip scum so I can feel vindicated in catching the potential irony here.

I won't, so... have fun with not being vindicated I guess?

Who started the VTNL wagon on day 1? Whiteflame. That led to 9 players left today. Mislynch today, we start tomorrow with 7. Mislynch again, we start DP4 with 5, by which time scum has not reached parity.

False. Mikal started the VTNL wagon (see post #175).

Let's say we had voted someone out day 1. Then we would have 8 today. Mislynch, 6 left at start of DP3. Mislynch again, you go down to 5 and someone dies in the night to reach parity.

Considering these numbers, VTNLing could have seemed like the right call because mislynching on day 1 would have cost us a day.

However, if you were scum and expected town to waste days 2, 3, and 4 anyway, then VTNLing would only set you back by a day you did not need, while also denying the town valuable information and possibly saving a scum or town-harmful neutral. I think whiteflame and/or RT came up with the fake caroler claim plot and crunched the numbers, and then whiteflame became the wagoneer because he was the more trusted of the two.

Considering these numbers, VTNLing could have seemed like the right call because mislynching on day 1 would have cost us a day.

However, if you were scum and expected town to waste days 2, 3, and 4 anyway, then VTNLing would only set you back by a day you did not need, while also denying the town valuable information and possibly saving a scum or town-harmful neutral. I think whiteflame and/or RT came up with the fake caroler claim plot and crunched the numbers, and then whiteflame became the wagoneer because he was the more trusted of the two.

So... you're arguing that the lack of a lynch flip denied town valuable information that outweighs the gain of an extra DP? I mean, if that's your view, you're welcome to it, but I don't agree. I think losing another player would have been more damaging, especially since we were far more likely to lynch town given that no one was on the same page about a lynch wagon.

I also just don't get how you come up with scenarios like this, that we somehow "crunched the numbers" and determined that there was value in denying ourselves information to simultaneously deny town a flip that would have put them one step closer to MYLO. It's another instance of WIFOM, but it would be some baffling math on our parts to conclude that that's the best possible outcome from DP1.

Since both of you have brought this up now, I believe it would be a big mistake to lynch RT, especially if the goal is just to verify his result. By using a lynch to verify his result, you also limit your chances to find scum among those three, which is especially strange if you are among those three (looking at you, Thoth - this should be a coin flip for you if you have any reason to believe RT received this trio of names and are Town).

The only scenario where you should be seeking a lynch on RT is if you believe we're both scum, as Thoth clearly does.

im surprised everyone keeps looking at my way when I have explained my logic multiple times. I knew wf didn’t get results and wanted to lock him into something so he could not backtrack or alter. All he said was “when did I say I had results”. If forced to claim and he was scum there is a chance he could have tried to fabricate something and I had the ability to cc.

Not going to respond to everything you said, at least not until I have more time to sit down with it, but I did say twice that I didn't have a result before I was pushed to claim. Look at post 83 and 97.

Since both of you have brought this up now, I believe it would be a big mistake to lynch RT, especially if the goal is just to verify his result. By using a lynch to verify his result, you also limit your chances to find scum among those three, which is especially strange if you are among those three (looking at you, Thoth - this should be a coin flip for you if you have any reason to believe RT received this trio of names and are Town).

The only scenario where you should be seeking a lynch on RT is if you believe we're both scum, as Thoth clearly does.

Yeah, this makes sense. I was thinking earlier that it would be best to confirm because if he is lying then we wouldn't be able to town-confirm the other players in the POE once we lynch him and will basically be fucked because the results would be fake. Then I thought about it a bit more and realized that we probably still could town-confirm them because, if he was lying as scum, he wouldn't include any scum players in the fake POE.

Wylted was pushing for claims DP1 and Shining is in POE and isn't participating much. Mikal has claimed an investigative role, and scum won't NK him because he's in the Caroler POE. Thoth is at least active and will be easier to get a read on moving forward. I'd support a Shining lynch.

VTL Shining.

This DP will last 72 hours and will end on Friday the 16th at 9:00 PM EDT, or when a majority vote is reached.

Mod note: I wrote this wrong again. It should say Saturday the 16th. Thank you.

I will check in tonight and maybe tomorrow before I leave, but I'll be away on another camping trip till Tuesday so I might not be very active for the next few days.

Votes:

Thoth (3/5): Whiteflame, McDonalds, RT

RationalTheist (2/5): Mikal, Thoth

Mikal (1/5): Lunatic

Shining (1/5): RexFavilla

Potassium

also my role is actually powerful. It confirms a role. You know how many games cop has been a fc or mafia can fake claim results. It allows us to mostly town lock someone unless you assume I and that person are scum

it only confirms a player to you, and still leaves you in question.

All of David’s tmi bothers me and would rather confirm that there isn’t a 1x use or some weird mafia thing. Affiliation is not confirmation. Surprised Luna does not bite with this as we have discussed it multiple times

i never said he was confirmed for being popular, i town read him for the Caroler results combined with what Whiteflame said regarding the circumstances about his results. That and we literally just had a scum popular and psyche suggests Casey wouldn’t throw it in back to back as scum especially when she was scum in the last game with the scum popular. Only thing I thing is wierd about RT is his obsession with Thoth and willingness to continue to suspect him over everything including “game abuse” for discussing our soft claim meta outside the site which seems a bit absurd to me.

Ultimately I don’t think Thoth is scum here. His push on Whiteflame is who almost the most agreed upon townie right now seems counter intuitive for a mafia stratagem, which leads me to believe that the read while outlandish in so many regards, is probably legitimate.

I would be okay with shining except that i dont feel we learn anything if he is town, and we’ve made the mistake of lynching earth before for dubious reasons. This time he happens to be incriminated by results so I’d feel less bad about getting it wrong.

Mikal feels scummiest to me out of the three on the lynch. His actions in regards to Whiteflame never sat right with me and his subsequent explanation for his actions feels very weak to me. That plus his overreaction to the pressure he recieved at the time felt extremely fake, almost more of an intimidation tactic to threaten town for screwing up and shame us for voting him until he realized it was really just me who was seriously pressuring him. That and his role isn’t as powerful as he suggests it is, and so far it doesn’t really make sense with a caroler. Unless exactly RT and Whiteflame are scum, we know that there is a caroler. So for Mikal’s role to be legit we have to assume there is a third investigative role that straight up gives results which might be true but also feels very powerful. It’s not out of the realm of possibility.

But the major thing giving me pause in Mikal is that the role he claimed was a role he and I had discussed fake claiming in biology mafia. I was the one who had suggested it and I remember Mikal really liking the fake claiming and wanting to use it, even after I had backed off of the idea of using it. It feels extremely convienent that Casey would pull this role to use out of a hat when it’s never been used before and the only ever time I can recall it being mentioned was when we discussed using it as a fake claim.

I’m going to attempt one last push against Mikal here to see what kind of support I can garnish, if we would really rather lynch shining or Thoth I will be on board as I do think the caroler results are likely legit, so we still stand to lynch scum correctly by following through. But yeah I’d rather lynch Mikal out of the three. His mild omgus doesn’t help my read against him either.

I will check in tonight and maybe tomorrow before I leave, but I'll be away on another camping trip till Tuesday so I might not be very active for the next few days.

No one goes camping more than once a summer. Obvious scum!

I'm not really liking either Mikal or Thoth (and not just because of the dream). Gun to my head, I would say Mikal is my preferred lynch. I don't like his hang ups with RT.

I think wf is town. The reason I wanted to test rt was because if he is scum and we believe him, the game is over

I don't think we stand to gain much from a test. I'd still like to know why RT believed his role might not be active anymore, but volunteering that that might be the case isn't what I'd call scummy TMI.

also my role is actually powerful. It confirms a role. You know how many games cop has been a fc or mafia can fake claim results. It allows us to mostly town lock someone unless you assume I and that person are scum

It confirms an investigative role if it is used. Otherwise, it only confirms that it wasn't used or that the person who used it didn't receive a result, e.g. me. It can test scum fake claims if and only if scum claim that they received a result and you target them, or if they receive a result (e.g. Role Cop) and then claim not to have that role. That's useful, but I wouldn't characterize it as powerful since that information is heavily limited.

past that because it’s not a dreamer and a caroler. I’m assuming partial balance because I can results if I target the person who is caroled ( if I targeted rt and not wf)

I can see how it slots into the game like I said in my read of you, though just because it's potentially good mechanical balance doesn't mean it's a given that your role is here.

Ultimately I don’t think Thoth is scum here. His push on Whiteflame is who almost the most agreed upon townie right now seems counter intuitive for a mafia stratagem, which leads me to believe that the read while outlandish in so many regards, is probably legitimate.

I can't write off Thoth. It's a bold move to push me and RT as a scum team, but it's also entirely believable if he's in the Caroler result and he wants to push the lynch anywhere else. Making town disbelieve the result is a reasonable tactic, especially when he knows he will likely be on the chopping block regardless and wants to push that off a DP or two.

I'm not sure who I'm favoring as a lynch between Mikal and Thoth, but they both rub me the wrong way. Really doesn't help that, despite Thoth saying he was fine with claiming, he's been at 3 votes for a while and has refused to claim or even explain why he wont.

It’s not omgus it’s just scum will likely jump on a wagon when it’s convenient and you are refusing to believe my reasoning so I am not going to beat a dead horse. Already explained my thought process and if people don’t believe it not much I can do. Typically think town you would entertain reaction tests or pushes.

i realize I’m the likely lynch and I think scum will go for the low hanging fruit. It’s also not a dare or whatever. I just don’t care to rage or bitch at town. If town is insistent on playing bad, that’s on them. Helps the Poe regardless. I’m having a lynch slid at me when I’ve openly stated results, reasoning, my role, and my character. When 2 of the other people who got listed has claimed literally nothing. So if town is that dumb, then what can you do.

Not completely caught up but I think I want a Thoth claim

Doesn't seem like im the only one

Any particular reason why you have been evasive about providing your role claim? You had three votes on you when you last posted.

vtl Thoth make that four

Hey friends. Just got home and am catching up.

It is also a little strange that RT kept mentioning his role could have been deactivated hits me as odd still but not worth considering yet

As the mod explained in the opening rules - anti-claim mechanisms do exist. The most obvious way this could happen is if mafia have a vanillaizer role. If they target me I lose my popularity and effectively become a VT. This is why I'm afraid of re-testing the claim. If there is a vanillaizer or other anti-claim role that targets me we could just be giving scum a free lynch.

Since both of you have brought this up now, I believe it would be a big mistake to lynch RT, especially if the goal is just to verify his result. By using a lynch to verify his result, you also limit your chances to find scum among those three, which is especially strange if you are among those three (looking at you, Thoth - this should be a coin flip for you if you have any reason to believe RT received this trio of names and are Town).

This, among other reasons, is why Thoth is currently my strongest wolf read.

Mikal feels scummiest to me out of the three on the lynch. His actions in regards to Whiteflame never sat right with me and his subsequent explanation for his actions feels very weak to me. That plus his overreaction to the pressure he recieved at the time felt extremely fake, almost more of an intimidation tactic to threaten town for screwing up and shame us for voting him until he realized it was really just me who was seriously pressuring him. That and his role isn’t as powerful as he suggests it is, and so far it doesn’t really make sense with a caroler. Unless exactly RT and Whiteflame are scum, we know that there is a caroler. So for Mikal’s role to be legit we have to assume there is a third investigative role that straight up gives results which might be true but also feels very powerful. It’s not out of the realm of possibility.

But the major thing giving me pause in Mikal is that the role he claimed was a role he and I had discussed fake claiming in biology mafia. I was the one who had suggested it and I remember Mikal really liking the fake claiming and wanting to use it, even after I had backed off of the idea of using it. It feels extremely convienent that Casey would pull this role to use out of a hat when it’s never been used before and the only ever time I can recall it being mentioned was when we discussed using it as a fake claim.

This is very important piece of info. I am very torn with Mikal - even more so given he's in my POE

i realize I’m the likely lynch and I think scum will go for the low hanging fruit. It’s also not a dare or whatever. I just don’t care to rage or bitch at town. If town is insistent on playing bad, that’s on them. Helps the Poe regardless. I’m having a lynch slid at me when I’ve openly stated results, reasoning, my role, and my character. When 2 of the other people who got listed has claimed literally nothing. So if town is that dumb, then what can you do.

You're saying that town played bad, but if you are town then you outted two town PRs in a single day for what? The most ideal play here would be to let whiteflame at least get a second result first. We already knew I was popular and that I've been targetted by a caroler.

Votes:

Thoth (4/5): Whiteflame, McDonalds, RT, Ultra

RationalTheist (2/5): Mikal, Thoth

Mikal (1/5): Lunatic

Shining (1/5): RexFavilla

DIDN'T YOU KNOW [Neo] IS FAMOUS FOR ITS HIGH DEFENSE!?

You're at L1. It's a good time to claim.

Time to claim here man.

Give me a few more minutes to finish writing.

I am C Round/K Round. Once per game, I can put on my crown at night, i.e., bulletproof.

Any particular reason why you have been evasive about providing your role claim? You had three votes on you when you last posted.

Because five minus three equals two and

1. I would rather not interact with an anti-claim mechanic unless I must.
2. I was hoping that, at some point, I would be the likely NK target for scum, so I could get them to waste a night.

I can't write off Thoth. It's a bold move to push me and RT as a scum team, but it's also entirely believable if he's in the Caroler result and he wants to push the lynch anywhere else. Making town disbelieve the result is a reasonable tactic, especially when he knows he will likely be on the chopping block regardless and wants to push that off a DP or two.

I wouldn't call it a bold move on my part. I just noticed a possibility that everyone else either missed or was afraid to mention, unless my hypothesis has some flaw I did not notice.

If you think I can pull of this level of frustration as part of a faked back-and-forth with RT, you give me far too much credit.

Your exchanges felt scripted.

False. Mikal started the VTNL wagon (see post #175).

I partially stand corrected, but Ctrl+F-ing showed me that you brought up the possibility of VTNL several times before #175, first in #135 and then in #138, #145, and #174. Unless page search missed something, you were the first to suggest we hop on that wagon, and Mikal only got the horse pulling it. The way you indirectly suggested it on day 1, and now are offloading responsibility for it, give me extreme scum vibes. I'm more sus of you now than I was before you pointed this out.

...Excuse me? Since when does searching the role on Mafia Universe take any more than a few minutes? Also, and I'm surprised I have to point this out again, I already knew I was the Caroler at this point. That research was already in hand before the start of the DP, so of course it wouldn't take substantial time.

I accept that I was wrong here.

The first part of this is entirely WIFOM

Only if WIFOM stands for Whiteflame Is Flunking Out Math. Today, there were 10 choose 3 = 120 possible sets of three players to name. If Shining, Mikal, and Thoth were the most sus possible triplet, and there is only a 1/120 chance of picking the most sus possible triplet, the probability of you lying skyrockets. It might be that this was not the most sus possible triplet, and that 1/120 is an underestimate anyway because scum are more likely to be sus, but it's convenient that, if I remember right, none of the three were being townread. I'm not going through the thread and thoroughly checking for everyone's reads yet because I need to finish writing this before I get a fifth vote.

The only scenario where you should be seeking a lynch on RT is if you believe we're both scum, as Thoth clearly does.

I think you are both scum, yes. I could imagine that RT is town and you are scum. The other way around seems less likely since you would have no reason to fake-claim Caroler, but possibly you would not have seen the same list RT did if you really are Caroler, so you would not know RT was lying. I would still like to see RT out first since he is in the POE list anyway in case the carol was accurate, but I could be persuaded to vote for you to go in front of him.

So I tied myself directly to my scum partner in the most brazen way possible with a role that scum would either have to continuously RB or otherwise kill off to stop, making my survival in subsequent NPs automatically pretty sus? Sure, why not?

Because at least one of you hoped nobody would notice.

Look at what happened here. RT claims he got information that could lead to three mislynches, probably enough to win scum the game. whiteflame and RT have some back-and-forth over it, almost as though they want to look like they do not quite trust each other. Eventually, whiteflame claims a rare role that just so happens to give enough mislynch targets to make town lose if we vote them all out. Not any number of targets, but exactly enough to win for scum. All three names are sus enough that they might think people would lynch them. Between RT and whiteflame, the one who claims Caroler, and therefore the one that is definitely town if at least one is town, is the one who was more strongly townread on day 1, and therefore more likely to be trusted. If I did not shave the hairs on the back of my neck, they would be standing up straighter than a man whose girlfriend is the same height, yet somehow nobody else brought up the possibility of the Caroler list being fake.

If y'all vote me out, when I flip town, please do everything you can to clear both Mikal and Shining. I think it's more likely than not that whiteflame is scum, and, if so, RT is probably scum too. If Mikal and Shining are clear, we can safely dispatch whiteflame and RT. If there is a seer or sheriff or whatever y'all call the role that checks alignments, please, for God's sake, check Mikal or Shining.

Between RT and whiteflame, the one who claims Caroler, and therefore the one that is definitely town if at least one is town

Sorry, misspoke. I meant the one who is definitely town if there really is a Caroler.