Ranger’s Apprentice Mafia DP2

”everything and nothing” is Track 10 of LD50

So much shit running through my head rn

im gonna go to sleep and look at things with fresh eyes (and a fresh mind)

I believe wryly, though it does conflict with the roleblocker a bit, but its also a 2x role so maybe roleblocker fits it.

So out of a doctor, a tracker, and an emisary who got results on a dead person, I am leaning that casey is probably the scum here. Wryly can get a noob pass for forfeiting the doctor ability IG.

Unvote.

I will probably end up voting casey by the end of the phase here, but I will let everyone discuss what they think.

I'm about to go to sleep, but, before I do, I'll respond to what I didn't get around to earlier today.

First off, the thought has crossed my mind that Lunatic and Rex could be the scum team, claiming their real characters. Claiming antagonists while knowing that antagonists are scum sounds reckless, but they might have thought that they could hide behind Pie having run games with splits other than hero scum-villain town. Casey told me before this game started that Lunatic is a notorious risk-taker as scum, but Magic says (Post #38) that Rex would never play that incautiously. Then again, Magic is, well, how can I put it, not exactly town-locked, so I'd rather get feedback from any of y'all who have more experience with Rex than I do: can you imagine Rex straight-claiming antagonist as antagonist-scum if Lunatic asked him to? The problem with this theory is that, if one of them were to flip scum, the other would be nearly scum-locked by association, and I can't imagine even Lunatic doing something that suicidal unless he overlooked that, which I also can't imagine.

Thoth looks the best out of this trio for not being on the Mikal wagon I will say.

(Post #13) In the interest of full disclosure, I could not have hopped on that wagon even if I had wanted to, since I was busy around the end of day 1 and got back later than I thought I would. That said, I never bought Magic's arguments against Mikal before that. Check out post #182 from day 1. Mister Fantastic would be impressed at some of the reaches in there. I should probably also add that I now think Rex is town, so my vote was still likely misplaced.

Okay but I also didn’t participate in the Mikal lynch and argued with magic about why I thought he was town yesterday. Considering he was mislynched, it is clear the mafias plan was to mislynch him.

(Post #32) Not necessarily their plan. Sometimes things just work out conveniently for one side or the other. I might be making a dumb oversight here, but why they would have wanted him gone is beyond me since, as long as he was alive, they had a chance of getting a two-for-one night kill. Maybe they thought Compulsive Hider was a fake-claim for a power role. I think the strongest argument left in Magic's favor is the inexplicability of scum wagoning Mikal, of all people.

We should focus within the results before going to mharman, who again, was the only person who had an actual case against Mikal, most of the people on that wagon only voted him because it would have ended in a no lynch which is more of a scapegoat for scum.

I disagree with Magic having the best case against Mikal. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe all the points Magic made against Mikal were based on public information plus his supposed reads and knowledge of how Mafia games tend to be built. Magic started the wagon and the other four hopped on either because they were scum following his lead or because they were town wanting to avoid a no-lynch and not being sure where else to go. If Magic isn't the most likely candidate for scum now, he was at the moment Mikal was revealed as town.

Ironically this reinforces my town read on thoth.

(Post #80) What's ironic about it?

everything and nothing... jeez i didn't expect this to be so hard

(Post #83) What the fuck kind of claim is that?

VTL Wryly

If we want to swap to Magic, I'll gladly board that wagon, and I could less eagerly join a wagon on Casey, but my scumdar is blaring after seeing that Wryly ascribed her (in)action to noobiness. I get that we were all new once, according to Bolzano's theorem, and I get that newbies make mistakes, but explicitly playing the newbie card reads hard to me as scraping the bottom of the excuse barrel. I know that because I did it once and it worked.

hero town - villain scum *

Addendum to my claim (Post #78): I said that I was certain of interference because I figured it was impossible for someone to visit themselves. I might have been wrong. I will ask Pie whether or not self-applied actions like Bulletproof would register as a visit.

CLAIMSLIST

Lunatic - Morgarath - Dreamer (Thoth, wryly, casey np1 results)

RationalTheist - Tug - Asceticiser (Makes someone untargetable except by night kills, forfeited np1)

REF - Kalkarra- 2x Weak Roleblocker (Dies if targets mafia, targeted Whiteflame np1)

Thoth - Gilan - Tracker (Tracked Mharman to himself)

Wryly - Malcolm- 2x Doctor (Forfeited np1)

Casey_Risk - Alyss- Emissary (Recived information that someone was from redmont fief, person was whiteflame)

Unclaimed

Mag1cMan- Male- tracked visiting himself

(Post #32) Not necessarily their plan. Sometimes things just work out conveniently for one side or the other. I might be making a dumb oversight here, but why they would have wanted him gone is beyond me since, as long as he was alive, they had a chance of getting a two-for-one night kill. Maybe they thought Compulsive Hider was a fake-claim for a power role. I think the strongest argument left in Magic's favor is the inexplicability of scum wagoning Mikal, of all people.

It's not that mikal is the best mislynch, I think scum would have taken any mislynch at that point, be it rex or mikal, mikal was the easier of the two based on having a scummy role, and not being around to defend himself from it. My point was that if I was around to be pinged on discord, I could have placed my vote in advance with knowing what mafias intentions were for the mislynch.

I disagree with Magic having the best case against Mikal. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe all the points Magic made against Mikal were based on public information plus his supposed reads and knowledge of how Mafia games tend to be built. Magic started the wagon and the other four hopped on either because they were scum following his lead or because they were town wanting to avoid a no-lynch and not being sure where else to go. If Magic isn't the most likely candidate for scum now, he was at the moment Mikal was revealed as town.

I wasn't saying his argument was for lynching mikal was good, I even argued against it last day phase. Just that he was the only one on the wagon that actually had reason for lynching him other than "the day phase is expiring and this is the best option" which scum are more likely to be apart of a mislynch following logic like that because its a good excuse when you get called out for being wrong later. "Hey I would have rather we didn't end in a mislynch" its a tried and true excuse thats been used for decades. At least with mharman it was his intention clearly from the get go to pursue mikal, is my point, which yes is still possible for him to be scum, but its more of a braven stance and therefor more believe from my point of view to be legit.

VTL Wryly

If we want to swap to Magic, I'll gladly board that wagon, and I could less eagerly join a wagon on Casey, but my scumdar is blaring after seeing that Wryly ascribed her (in)action to noobiness. I get that we were all new once, according to Bolzano's theorem, and I get that newbies make mistakes, but explicitly playing the newbie card reads hard to me as scraping the bottom of the excuse barrel. I know that because I did it once and it worked.

Interesting. So you don't think there is a protection role?

Unvote

I don't have any meaningful addition to the rest of what you said at the moment, and I'd like to see other people's input, but you are right that no protection role would be odd. Good catch.

Hmm I was thinking that maybe Wryly would like Mikal dead if she was scum, because she hydra-d with him last game so she might be worried about him having insight into her play/reasoning, but an uncc'd doctor is pretty strong. Yeah, it's looking like a Casey lynch to me.

Hmm I was thinking that maybe Wryly would like Mikal dead if she was scum, because she hydra-d with him last game so she might be worried about him having insight into her play/reasoning, but an uncc'd doctor is pretty strong. Yeah, it's looking like a Casey lynch to me.

Hmm I was thinking that maybe Wryly would like Mikal dead if she was scum, because she hydra-d with him last game so she might be worried about him having insight into her play/reasoning, but an uncc'd doctor is pretty strong. Yeah, it's looking like a Casey lynch to me.

You know what, Wryly and Thoth are both looking pretty towny to me right now. I can definitely buy the Luna/Rex theory. My only problem with that is that Tracker and Doctor are both very 'normal' roles and Pie likes to include lots of unusual roles in his games, with WF and I being good examples of that. But Mikal was town and Hider is also pretty normal (even if it doesn't typically have the Compulsive modifier) so I'd say it's plausible.

Also, I'd like to point out that I softed my role during DP1:

I will say this: it would be helpful to me, personally, if everyone claimed whether or not they are from Araluen, and if so, what Fief they are from. But obviously, that would put the town in danger of narrowing things down too much and benefitting scum, so I don't actually suggest we do that. But there is a particular reason I bring this up. (It'll make sense later.)

Also, I'd like to point out that I softed my role during DP1:

For all we know mafia had asked their questions and had fake claims ready before the game even started, it doesn't do much.

This is really frustrating for me. I can see reason to townread everyone alive rn

In post 216, and 234 you seem extra hell bent about no lynching. Care to explain why a no lynch is so devastating from your POV here considering one occurred in delta force and it was a steam roll for town?

Also I am curious as to your thoughts on why whiteflame was killed

In reference to whiteflame, his latest set of reads comes from post 157.

In a TL;DR they are as follows

Luna- Slight Town

Magic- Slight Town

Wryly- Town

Thoth- Ultimately he says null though he likes the analysis

Casey- Null

Ref- Slight Scum

Knowing that he died, I find it interesting that two of his null reads happen to be in my dreamer results. I wonder if mafia felt worried about him having a potential power role, saw his reads, and knew based on POE that one of thoth, casey or ref was likely to be a target of his if he had one. It would be worth taking him out under that mindset.

Updated thoughts:

Casey- Has some incentive to have killed whiteflame based on being in 1 of 3 of his POE reads. That combined with her appearing in my dreamer results doesn't look good. As for a third problem, her role of emissary happens to confirm a townie who is already, making it semi useless if she is town, and kind of convenient if she is scum. Three points against her doesn't look good to me at the moment, but hey, maybe it is all just a really negative coincidence?

RationalTheist- Naturally earns some town points for the early claim (this point has been debatable for many, for me early claims can be either or based on the context of them and the person, and I think in RT's case it's more of a town point, as I would expect an early claim to come from a more confident veteran player if fake). But the Aescetizer, hider, and a roleblocker all kind of balance out a dreamer which can be considered very OP in some set ups. While I am still not sure I buy all three existing, we know the hider was legit, and both RT and Rex were off the dreamer results, so its possible and likely that at least two are legit in the game, balance wise it makes sense to me. He get's points for witholding the action as well. I am not currently suspicious of RT.

REF- Ref has a point against him in whiteflames death, since whiteflame sussed him last phase and is now dead. However Mharman makes a good point in this not fitting Ref's MO from the one scum game he recently played in, which was terraria. Claiming roleblocker is already a pretty risky move, but to go ahead and claim that you roleblocked and visisted the guy who just flipped innocent, well that's just a ballsy move to make as scum. It's not impossible that ref's playstyle has changed, especially considering he lost terraria and could be looking to make some playstyle changes, but like I said with RT, the roleblocker does kind of fit with the balance of a dreamer. I still am tenative to say that balance would justify both a roleblocker and ascetizer though. which seems a bit over kill. Now if casey does flip scum, it might look good that rex was a roleblocker though, because it would explain why casey would have felt the need to kill whiteflame instead of just roleblock him, if scum actually doesn't have a roleblocking ability. Ref ultimately is still in the POE, but I think we should focus on nailing the scum in the dreamer results first, and I am not particularly focused on Ref this day phase.

Thoth- Thoth's dp1 didn't stand out to me, he was overtly chatty as usual, very active, which helps. He latched on to what I feel is kind of a weak issue in pushing RT for simply claiming a horse, but he didn't really stick to that line of logic long. He had an early town read of mikal which looks good for him, and despite having incentive to kill whiteflame, I am not particularly sold that he would have feared whiteflame enough to do it, whereas I can see someone like casey having a deeper respect and fear for him. He says he wasn't around for the day phase end and therefor couldn't have been on the lynch, but as scum I don't know why he would admit that when its a point in his favor, so the humble sauce comes off as a bit townie as well. He was consistent with his rex FOS through most of the day phase 1. His claim is probably the best reason to town read him though, he has results that mharman specifically visited himself, and mharman hasn't denied that yet. While its possible the mafia could have a scout, I not sold that a dreamer and a tracker really are too OP in a game where there are multiple blocking abilities and mislynchables like mikal. If we are missing the mark here it should become fairly obvious in time, but I think there is enough to with thoth to give him a pass for today at the very least.

Magicman- I had an early effort based town read on magic. In the past he has been notoriously easy to scum read, but when he's town he kind of kills it effort wise. I am getting the vibe that he is fairly committed to being active and contributing, even if I think he missed the mark with the mikal read. Also I don't think scum mharman pushes mikal as hard as he did if he knew he was genuinely town. I'd expect more of a passive play, maybe see him getting defensive and engaging with someone, but he seemed straightforward with the mikal read. One major point against him however is the self visit. I can't think of a ton of town roles that self visit except maybe gramps, and his soft claim to me went completely over my head. Maybe when he explains it, it will make more sense to me, idk. But mafia do have a lot of self visiting roles, primarily something like lawyer, ninja, strongman, lookout, etc (depending on how mod mechanics make them work), so it is a bit suspicious as of this moment. But he is not in my dreamer results, so at the very least I think we can wait to focus on magicman til tomorrow.

Wryly- Lastly wryly. Outside of appearing in my results, and being on the mikal wagon, the doctor claim does save him a bit. However there doesn't HAVE to be a doctor in every game, it's just likely that we would see some sort of protective role in most games. Considering we have an ascetizer its possible that works as our protection, since if ref's role is to be believed, his won't protect a night kill as it is weak. However I feel like most of the pass I am giving to him is role based, behaviorally I don't have a metric ton to town read him off of, and it doesn't help he was also on my dreamer results. I will give a noob pass for the forfeit, though it is kind of wild he did that. If he didn't think he was forced to claim any time soon he might have thought he could extend it's value by holding onto it, but thats kind of a gamble in a 9 player game where mafia can generally get POE figured out by dp3 at the latest.

Anyways, yeah I would say my strongest lean at the moment is casey, if I had to make a second place guess it would be wryly. If it's thoth I will be a bit shocked, but no matter what I would prefer to lynch one of the three in the results today. If I die tonight, please do not assume if we do catch one of the scum today, that the other scum isn't in the results as well. Most dreamer results have followed that theme of recent, and I could see pie throwing both names in to mix it up. But yeah, that's my tired thoughts, I think I had more earlier but some of them got lost with everything I read, so I will post more later if they occur to me.

For all we know mafia had asked their questions and had fake claims ready before the game even started, it doesn't do much.

If you think I'm fakeclaiming, do you think I came up with my claim myself, or do you think I got mine from my partner? Why? Who do you think my partner most likely is?

In post 216, and 234 you seem extra hell bent about no lynching. Care to explain why a no lynch is so devastating from your POV here considering one occurred in delta force and it was a steam roll for town?

Deltarune Mafia started on an even number of players. This game started with nine. All previous games I have been a part of that started with a NL on nine players - Breath of the Wild, Indian Politicians, Inheritance Cycle - they all went very poorly for the town.

Honestly, this angle of attack feels like you're trying to conjure up some extra reason to scumread me. Everyone switched to Mikal last minute at the end of DP1, save for Magic.

Also I am curious as to your thoughts on why whiteflame was killed

That's a good question. Either Rex is scum or mafia figured he was baiting. Scum usually want to keep potential mislynches alive, and few people were widely townread DP1. Magic, assuming he's town, wouldn't have been a good choice since him leading the Mikal wagon would give scum some potential room to put sus on him. And I feel like there was plenty of room to put sus on any of us in the Dreamer results (which I am increasingly suspicious of). By process of elimination, WF makes sense as the NK target.

So, do you remember Ace Attorney Mafia by chance?

If you think I'm fakeclaiming, do you think I came up with my claim myself, or do you think I got mine from my partner? Why? Who do you think my partner most likely is?

I think you got it from asking questions to the mod because you are an intelligent enough player to do basic theme research. I don't attribute you getting your claim from a partner, though I suppose its possible. Gun to my head if I had to guess who your partner is? My strongest POE reads would either be wryly (under the theory that pie mixed it up and put both names on the dreamer result) or one of magic or rex. I have some issues with magic and rex being scum that I mentioned in my analysis, but they are both technically possible at this junction. All Wryly has going for him is the claim though.

In post 216, and 234 you seem extra hell bent about no lynching. Care to explain why a no lynch is so devastating from your POV here considering one occurred in delta force and it was a steam roll for town?

Deltarune Mafia started on an even number of players. This game started with nine. All previous games I have been a part of that started with a NL on nine players - Breath of the Wild, Indian Politicians, Inheritance Cycle - they all went very poorly for the town.

Generally speaking, no lynches only occur "accidentally" or due to inactivity, and even then they are pretty rare. It just seems odd to me how hell bent against it happening last day phase, and I wonder if it added steam the the pressure mikal got.

Honestly, this angle of attack feels like you're trying to conjure up some extra reason to scumread me. Everyone switched to Mikal last minute at the end of DP1, save for Magic.

Of the 5 on the lynch, one was confirmed town (wf), One was already pursuing it (Magic) and the other three were "Oh we don't want it to end in a no lynch" which is the classic reason for scum to board a wagon historically. Combine that with the fact that two were in my results, I don't think it's that odd of an angle for "Attack".

So, do you remember Ace Attorney Mafia by chance?

Kind of why?

Generally speaking, no lynches only occur "accidentally" or due to inactivity, and even then they are pretty rare. It just seems odd to me how hell bent against it happening last day phase, and I wonder if it added steam the the pressure mikal got.

WHY would it seem odd to you? Yeah unintentional NLs are rare, but DP1 was very low activity and we were clearly in danger of doing it.

Of the 5 on the lynch, one was confirmed town (wf),

Okay, so at least one confirmed towny switched last minute, and at least one other on the wagon was town as well. So it's obviously not AI.

Ugh, I have to work. Fuck my job. I'm just going to do this now and elaborate when I can.

VTL Luna

WHY would it seem odd to you? Yeah unintentional NLs are rare, but DP1 was very low activity and we were clearly in danger of doing it.

Because again, we literally just no lynched in your deltarune game and obliterated scum. It seems like you were adding steam to pressure of getting any lynch off regardless of who it was on. Scum have motive to mislynch, and encouraging people to throw caution to the wind last minute helped that cause.

Okay, so at least one confirmed towny switched last minute, and at least one other on the wagon was town as well. So it's obviously not AI.

That's like saying it's never AI for scum to participate on an opportunistic lynch because a townie also got it wrong lol.

Official Vote Count:

Wryly (1/4) - Theist

Lunatic (1/4) - Casey

Going to bed soon, interested in hearing from the rest of the players, I will probably vote casey later, but I don't want someone to quick hammer it before all discussion can be had and everyone has spoken.

If we want to swap to Magic, I'll gladly board that wagon, and I could less eagerly join a wagon on Casey, but my scumdar is blaring after seeing that Wryly ascribed her (in)action to noobiness. I get that we were all new once, according to Bolzano's theorem, and I get that newbies make mistakes, but explicitly playing the newbie card reads hard to me as scraping the bottom of the excuse barrel. I know that because I did it once and it worked.

Actually such a newb I googled "mafia doctor strategy" before the game and the search results said this:

Guides seemed to say remain inconspicous & wait until you're sure. My attempt to remain inconspicuous was taken as at best noncommittalness and at worst shadiness. And waiting until I had a town confirmation turned out to be bad advice.

So I wasted an attempt to help town and now might not get a chance to.