Ranger’s Apprentice Mafia DP2

Seems very possible to me Casey cooked up the Diploment claim in or before DP1 and waited to claim until DP2 when she knew she'd have info on a townie's fief.

Because again, we literally just no lynched in your deltarune game and obliterated scum. It seems like you were adding steam to pressure of getting any lynch off regardless of who it was on. Scum have motive to mislynch, and encouraging people to throw caution to the wind last minute helped that cause.

This argument is flawed for multiple reasons. First, I already explained why Deltarune Mafia was a different situation due to being on evens. You even copied that into your response, but you didn't respond to it. Second, you should know by now that I will ALWAYS go for the DP1 lynch. The idea that I'd suddenly change my meta based on a game where scum were very low activity is just silly.

Third, yes, scum want to lynch town, but generally, NLing is better for scum since it doesn't progress the game for the town. I'd say that was true of Deltarune Mafia. The town made no progress DP1, and going into DP2, the Mafia was still in a good position. They lost due to their own inactivity and general poor play.

But let me ask you a pointed question here. Would you have honestly scumread me LESS for allowing an NL to happen than switching to Mikal? What would have been the towniest course of action for me to take, in your eyes?

By the way, does anyone else think it's crazy that there's a claimed Weak RB and a Compulsive Hider in this game? Because that's kind of nuts as far as balance goes, especially in a 9 player game.

I honestly don't grok role analysis enough yet but it doesn't seem to get us very far; Magic thought it was sus that there would be a hider in a 9 player game and that turned out to be wrong.

I guess the argument is that two townies who can die if they target the wrong person seems too much... mm, idk.

I guess the argument is that two townies who can die if they target the wrong person seems too much... mm, idk.

Worst case scenario, the Hider targets the NK target, the RB targets scum, and the NK is successful. Three town deaths in one night. That's kind of absurd.

More importantly, why does a weak RB even exist? It's basically useless. And most importantly, why did Rex want to stay alive so bad when his role was so low utility?

It does seem like a suicide role--block the correct person and you die.

Why no claim

VTL Casey

Having read everything in this day phase multiple times, I don't have anything substantial to add to our pool of information, other than that I'm pretty sure that Wryly is a she, not a he (Post #110). I would say Lisa Simpson should have told you that, except that I display my pronouns on my Discord profile mainly to prevent being mistaken for a girl depending on my current profile picture. I made the same mistake last game with Casey because the name Casey made me think of Casey at the Bat and I was not aware that Casey was a unisex name.

I can, however, offer my thoughts on what we know. I think the essential question here is whether the Dreamer is fake, in which case scum are Lunatic and almost certainly Rex, or real, in which it's probably any two out of Casey, Magic, and Wryly.

On the off chance it's Option A, I'd still like thoughts from anyone who has played a lot with Rex about whether or not you think he would do something this risky, especially if he is straight-claiming antagonist, but I think it's unlikely, and I don't see anyone else even remotely fitting as Lunatic's scum partner. In the very unlikely event that any townie has an investigative ability they have not claimed, you absolutely need to aim it at Lunatic or Rex tonight. Despite all the heuristic evidence against it, some part of me still thinks Morgarath is too good of a fit for some breed of Mafia JOAT.

As for Option B, I think it's probably Casey and either Magic or Rex. As badly as my scumdar is pinging in Wryly's direction, and despite the fact that I'm townreading Casey's frustration at Lunatic's grilling, Doctor is a believable claim because it fits perfectly with Malcolm, as Wryly said it would, and, more importantly, there are no other claimed roles that can protect from a night kill. If I had to put numbers to it, I think it's about 4 out of 5 likely that the Dreamer is legitimate. Assuming scum are Casey and Magic, since Magic started the Mikal wagon, he probably has the weaker role of the two since they were willing to risk putting that sus on him, so Casey needs to go first, especially if we somehow clear Rex today. Also, Lunatic (Post #110) pointed out, especially with Mafia being allowed questions about which characters are not in the game, Casey could have thought of her claim beforehand and filled in the blanks later.

"which it's probably any two out of Casey, Magic, and Wryly."

"As for Option B, I think it's probably Casey and either Magic or Rex."

Bit of a mistake on my end as I was shuffling probabilities in my mind while writing this. I think Rex is unlikely to be scum, but needs to be kept on the back burner. Wryly is a bit more likely, as well as the Doctor claim fits given what we know and think we know about the role setup. I think the most likely duo is Casey and Magic.

Re: post #96

I asked Pie whether or not I would see a hypothetical player with 1x Bulletproof who chose when to apply it visit themselves. He said they would. I presume this applies to other abilities too, but I can't exactly ask about every possible role that isn't mine.

He said I* would

Yall I’ve been busy basically since I woke up today and this is the first time I’m able to post anything.

I do agree with Casey lynch cause I think she looks the scummiest out of three by far.

i never had a reason to townread her last day phase and i have even less right now. When it comes to the claims, hers is the only one that’s easy to fake with little risk. As for behavior, she was null for me yesterday and the back and forth with Lunatic isn’t a good look.

VTL Casey

Casey. I’m not scumnreading you for advocating a no lynch. In fact I probably wouldn’t have thought much of it if you didn’t also appear in my dreamer results. The fact of the matter is that it’s already common knowledge that we should avoid trying to no lynch though, and with you already having the two ticks against you of 1: appearing on my results and 2: convienently being able to town confirm a dead person, it doesn’t flood good that you also not only participated in the only mislynch we had but also encouraged others to vote for anyone consensus no matter how bad it was, to just hit said consensus. Like you fear mongered people into throwing caution to the wind by giving them a pass for it by being extra about how bad the consequences of a no lynch are. That feels wierd to me after we just steam rolled in a game where a no lynch occurred. Again yes, it is most often times better to lynch then no lynch. I don’t think anyone disagrees with that, but mafia have extra incentive to make sure any mislynch occurs so it seems wierd that you were pulling so hard for people to be lax with their vote. You could have encouraged a lynch before deadline without also encouraging laziness in the voting effort. that wouldn’t be changing your meta.

And no I’m not only holding you accountable for the mislynch, just adding the mislynch to your tally of things that look bad for you and overall that gives you the most “sus” points if you will.

Anyways I think Rex is the only one who hasn’t commented on this whole situation recently so I will wait for his comments before I place my vote

By the way, does anyone else think it's crazy that there's a claimed Weak RB and a Compulsive Hider in this game? Because that's kind of nuts as far as balance goes, especially in a 9 player game.

add the ascetizer in the mix it gets crazier. On one hand it balances out a dreamer but I admit that I am dubious all three actually exist in the game. But that is a problem for after we figure out the scum in the dreamer results.

another big issue I’m having with Casey is that she doesn’t even seem to be considering a world where the dreamer results are accurate. Like her whole theory is just that I’m doing a Hail Mary double attempt at a. Scum gambit that I’ve already used before, she actually hasn’t considered the results could be true and if she was town I figure she would at least be trying to look into Thoth or wryly as an option here, instead of automatically accepting they are town.

Yeah tbh she just feels like cornered scum here, like she's genuinely frustrated at being caged in like this. I see her floating the idea that we're scumbuddies as an attempt to break out of the bind that she finds herself in, but it just feels forced - I don't recall Casey ever engaging in that kind of farfetched theorizing as town before, whereas Thoth did literally the same thing in the last game. As for the theory people floated that antagonists are scum - I mean it has the obvious problem that if all the town had 'good' characters then there would be a pretty wide outcry against people claiming scum characters. I personally town read you DP1 because you soft claimed an evil dude with your LOTR comment, and my guy(s)/gal(s) sure sounded evil (I have done literally zero theme research though. All my PM says is that they're dangerous assassin monsters who have killed important people and can be killed with wax. Doesn't sound very cuddly.)

I still think that Wryly had the most to gain from seeing Mikal dead if she were scum. But I think Casey has more to gain from offing whiteflame. She may have worried that he had an investigative role and she was high up his shitlist.

Official Vote Count:

Casey (2/4) - Thoth, Magic

Wryly (1/4) - Theist

Lunatic (1/4) - Casey

Alright thats good enough for me basically everyone has had a chance to opine here, so i'll go ahead and vtl casey.

Okay, I can tell that I'm going to be lynched today. I am absolutely exhausted from working four twelve-hour shifts in a row and on top of that, I have to drive for several hours tomorrow. I simply don't have the energy to defend myself here. But I do want to explain myself.

Yeah, I'm focusing on Luna here. But that's because I'm pretty confident in my reads on Wryly and Thoth. I simply don't believe that Mikal was the only role that could potentially stop the NK. Wryly pretty much has to be town in my eyes. So for me, it's either Thoth or Luna. I think Thoth is more likely to be town.

Honestly, for me it comes down to his stated thought process thinking he had to have been interfered with to have seen a self-visit, and thinking that the risky part of Luna's claim, assuming he's scum, is that he claimed a villain, not that he claimed Dreamer. It just comes off as so genuine to me, not the sort of thing he'd present after conferring with his scum partner. Also, Magic seems to back up that he self-visited? At least, he doesn't deny it.

But that's important, because in DP2 of Ace Attorney, Luna went HARD against Mharman when his own Tracker results showed Magic visiting himself. In fact, he was the Doctor, but Luna still ended up leading his lynch. Here, he can't possibly be the doctor, otherwise he would have CC'd Wryly, but Luna just.. Doesn't seem to scumread him? It's such an odd shift, and it stands out for me. I can understand prioritizing Dreamer results to an extent, but the total lack of any focus on Magic from Luna is jarring to me. That's why I think Luna is scum.

Also, I've already explained part of why I don't like Rex, but he just gave me another reason to scumread him:

I see her floating the idea that we're scumbuddies as an attempt to break out of the bind that she finds herself in, but it just feels forced - I don't recall Casey ever engaging in that kind of farfetched theorizing as town before, whereas Thoth did literally the same thing in the last game.

Rex makes it out like we've played many games together. We have played exactly ONE game together where I was town. This sort of thing is part of why I sussed him slightly in Terraria Mafia - he made a post saying that he had heard I was a good player, which just made me think - 'Where and when did you hear that? We've never played together before...'

So yeah, those are the reasons behind my reads. I think the scum team is most likely Luna and Rex, smaller chance of it being Luna/Magic. If Luna is really town, I have to assume that Thoth is scum. Do whatever you will with this information, but unless Wryly manages to stop the NK tonight, tomorrow is LYLO, so choose wisely. That's what I got for y'all.

This may be irrelevant to this game, but are Dreamer results random in the sense that any set of players meeting the Dreamer requirements, i.e., at least one town, is equally probable to show up? If not, does the mod choose the names? I asked Pie whether or not he could answer my questions about a hypothetical Dreamer, and he said that he could not.

I started to write that it's interesting how the dream included three people who were generally considered neither solid town nor solid scum by the end of day 1, but that went away after I reread day 1 and saw that the reads that I remembered as being nearly locked one way or the other, i.e., RT as town and Rex as scum, were actually far from unanimous. Ununanimous. If all possible dreams are equally probable, this would have been Bayesian evidence for Lunatic lying, but not enough to sway me towards voting him, and in any case it's a moot point. The first seven words of that last sentence are definitely in some New Age self-help book.

The fact of the matter is that it’s already common knowledge that we should avoid trying to no lynch though, and with you already having the two ticks against you of 1: appearing on my results and 2: convienently being able to town confirm a dead person, it doesn’t flood good that you also not only participated in the only mislynch we had but also encouraged others to vote for anyone consensus no matter how bad it was, to just hit said consensus.

(Post #134) Any of these points by themselves would be too weak to lynch over, but all three together are strong. (Ecclesiastes 4:12) In fairness, the only mislynch we have had is also the only lynch we have had, and more than half of players voted for it.

but also encouraged others to vote for anyone consensus no matter how bad it was, to just hit said consensus.

(Post #134) I hope I am not insulting everyone's intelligence and game knowledge by explaining this, but there was a numerical argument for blindly lynching.

Assuming exactly one death per game phase, which admittedly might have been unjustified with a claimed Compulsive Hider, and that scum were an odd number of players away from reaching parity, a mislynch would not have changed the number of future mislynches required to lose. This is because, during any day, the number of mislynches until parity equals the number of townies, minus the number of scum, divided by 2, rounded up.

For instance, if scum are 2 players away from reaching parity at the start of a day, a mislynch puts them 1 away and then their night-kill attains parity, whereas a no-lynch keeps them 1 away after their night kill. If scum are 3 players away from parity, a no-lynch leaves them 2 away from parity tomorrow, while a lynch leaves them 1 player away, so that a mislynch tomorrow will win for scum either way.

Since we almost certainly have 2 scum out of 9 starting players, on day 1, scum were an odd number of players away from parity.

If you can hear me in the grave, whiteflame, thank you for pointing this out to me in Deltarune.

You could have encouraged a lynch before deadline without also encouraging laziness in the voting effort. that wouldn’t be changing your meta.

(Post #134) Except that there was no need for Casey to encourage laziness, at least not in the way she did, because I had started a wagon on Rex. This makes me mildly more suspicious of Rex, now that I think about it, as surprised as I would be if the scum team is Casey and Rex.

But that is a problem for after we figure out the scum in the dreamer results.

(Post #136) If we get two wrong, there probably won't be an after. I know that I am town, but, if I looked at it from the standpoint of a neutral third-party with no solid reads on myself or Wryly, both might look like the wrong lynch tomorrow because there is likely only one scum in the dream and the wrong choice would instantly lose for town.

another big issue I’m having with Casey is that she doesn’t even seem to be considering a world where the dreamer results are accurate. Like her whole theory is just that I’m doing a Hail Mary double attempt at a. Scum gambit that I’ve already used before, she actually hasn’t considered the results could be true and if she was town I figure she would at least be trying to look into Thoth or wryly as an option here, instead of automatically accepting they are town.

(Post #137) I agree that this is another strong point against Casey.

I mean it has the obvious problem that if all the town had 'good' characters then there would be a pretty wide outcry against people claiming scum characters.

(Post #138) With no flipped scum, Magic unclaimed, and everyone else but you and Lunatic having claimed protagonists, we can't be sure that not all townies have good characters.

and thinking that the risky part of Luna's claim, assuming he's scum, is that he claimed a villain, not that he claimed Dreamer

(Post #141) I can't exactly say that claiming Dreamer is risk-free.

After reading Casey's most recent post, I'm not ready to lynch her yet. She's still at the top of my sus list, but what she said about those previous games with Lunatic and Rex gives me pause. I'll reconsider my vote once there has been more discussion.

Unvote

One more thing before I try, and probably fail, to go to sleep. We know there is a theme split. The only pair of players with claims that I see as clearly themed together is Lunatic and Rex, but people with more lore knowledge than I have might spot something I missed. I want a claim from Magic as soon as possible because, even if he lies, it may get us somewhere towards determining the theme split.

As I've said before, I can 100% imagine Morgarath as Mafia JOAT.

Honestly, for me it comes down to his stated thought process thinking he had to have been interfered with to have seen a self-visit,

(Post #141) I was thinking of my role PM in Deltarune, where it said that using Bulletproof did not count as an action. I figured that not counting as an action meant that it would not show as a visit, that this is how other self-applied abilities work, and that both of those hypotheses also applied to this game. Later, I realized that these were unwarranted assumptions and asked Pie whether or not a hypothetical self-applied Bulletproof* in this game would show as a visit, and he said that it would. Not that I believe Magic used Bulletproof last night. I still think it's likely that at least one of us was redirected.

*I say self-applied Bulletproof because I'm not sure whether or not Bulletproof on here conventionally refers only to self-applied night kill protections. I'm guessing that it does because otherwise Doctors could be called Bulletproof, which I don't recall seeing.

But that's important, because in DP2 of Ace Attorney, Luna went HARD against Mharman when his own Tracker results showed Magic visiting himself. In fact, he was the Doctor, but Luna still ended up leading his lynch. Here, he can't possibly be the doctor, otherwise he would have CC'd Wryly, but Luna just.. Doesn't seem to scumread him? It's such an odd shift, and it stands out for me. I can understand prioritizing Dreamer results to an extent, but the total lack of any focus on Magic from Luna is jarring to me. That's why I think Luna is scum.

Ace attorney was literally over a year ago. I barely remember anything of that game at all, so its amusing that you think I would play 100% similarly to how I did there. Also from looking at the endgame, it looks like mafia won, and mharman wasn't mafia, so you are saying its scummy that I am not pursuing a path that I was wrong about? You don't think I am capable of learning and growing game to game? Btw it's not even true that I am not suspicious of mharmans self visit. I actually mentioned that I was suspicious of it in 110. This is what I said verbatim "One major point against him however is the self visit. I can't think of a ton of town roles that self visit except maybe gramps, and his soft claim to me went completely over my head. Maybe when he explains it, it will make more sense to me, idk. But mafia do have a lot of self visiting roles, primarily something like lawyer, ninja, strongman, lookout, etc (depending on how mod mechanics make them work), so it is a bit suspicious as of this moment. " Mharman is not in my dreamer results so he is a problem for after we find at least one scum on my dreamer results. I have said this repeatedly and am sticking to it, and I suspect you would do the same in my shoes if you were town. It would be weird of you not to.

Anyways you literally asked me about who I thought your scum partner could be and he was one of the ones I pointed out could be your partner, so why are you trying to change the narrative here and act like I have town confirmed mharman when I haven't?

forgot to tag

This may be irrelevant to this game, but are Dreamer results random in the sense that any set of players meeting the Dreamer requirements, i.e., at least one town, is equally probable to show up? If not, does the mod choose the names? I asked Pie whether or not he could answer my questions about a hypothetical Dreamer, and he said that he could not.

Its probably mod chosen, even though most mods claim they randomize things, I think most lie, but ultimately theres really no way to prove it. Regardless, as to whether there are multiple people on the dreamer results, historically speaking, I don't think I've ever seen dreamer results containing more than one scum on them, even though the role allows for more. The reason I am dubious as to there being more than one on this dreamer result, is because I literally just called that out in the last game with the caroler results, so I can see pie wanting to change it up and add in an extra mafia in this game just to defy the status qou. Its mostly mod psyche though, and I have no real other significant reason to believe there are two scum on these results other than if he wanted to punish towns way of thinking that after finding one scum on the results, the rest are confirmed, since that has been the basic trend.

(Post #134) Any of these points by themselves would be too weak to lynch over, but all three together are strong. (Ecclesiastes 4:12) In fairness, the only mislynch we have had is also the only lynch we have had, and more than half of players voted for it.

And in my reads, I did attribute it as a point against all of them.

If we get two wrong, there probably won't be an after. I know that I am town, but, if I looked at it from the standpoint of a neutral third-party with no solid reads on myself or Wryly, both might look like the wrong lynch tomorrow because there is likely only one scum in the dream and the wrong choice would instantly lose for town.

I would be surprised if it wasn't casey, because the other two claimed people in the results are a tracker and doctor, both make sense balance wise. Casey's role is the odd one out.

Btw I am genuinely sorry this game is causing you stress with the amount of work you are piled with, and I hope you can get away and enjoy the concert this weekend without having to stress too much about a game.

Official Vote Count:

Casey (2/4) - Lunatic, Magic

Wryly (1/4) - Theist

Lunatic (1/4) - Casey

You said in post #233 that visiting you could be dangerous in NP1. Why?