Ranger’s Apprentice Mafia DP3

I was gonna make a joke about it but I was like nah theyre too in the game to want jokes in the mafia thread

Because I'm a mislynch target. Killing Luna would confirm the POE with his flip and they want to discredit the dreamer results. They aren't going to kill the townie in POE because that will confirm the remaining one as scum. That narrows it down to Mharm or RT.

I asked Pie this but ofc he couldn't answer. Does the dreamer only get one vision?

I have some more thoughts but I'll wait for Mharman to post this rough draft of Moby Dick which he is apparently working on.

I asked Pie this but ofc he couldn't answer. Does the dreamer only get one vision?

Depends on if it's an x times or not it can vary.

Wha--? So he can get two visions? And no one asked him if it was 1 or 2x??

I thought for sure dreamer only ever got 1 because 2 seemed OP'd.

im not very fast at this man

GAME (MOSTLY) SOLVED.

First things first, my claim.

Erak Starfollower, Universal Backup. Justification is that I became the new Oberjarl after the previous one died, completing my foe-to-ally arc.

"Everything and nothing." I don't start the game with any power, which is the nothing. But the everything is that I could gain the power of another townie. With my version, I simply inherited the role of the first townie to die. That was Mikal.

NP1, I hid under Whiteflame, but didn't die, which is how I knew there was some fuckery last DP. After Thoth claimed, I had to ask Pie a ton of questions, but as it turns out, Thoth's results can be unfucked. If, for whatever reason, a Hider self-targets, he wouldn't be told his action failed, but he wouldn't be immune to night actions, making a self-target visible.

I didn't claim last DP for a few reasons. First, claiming puts me in a position where scum can get an extra NK if they call my hide target. Second, there's an off chance I attract an NK or roleblock/similar. Not high, but worth. Three, the specific scenario from last DP: If Casey somehow flips town, it's near guaranteed there's one scum between Lunatic and Wryly. Hiding behind Lunatic is safe no matter who is scum between the two. This means I keep myself safe and test Lunatic: If he reveals results while having been visited by me, he's scum. It would take a mistake on his part, but it was worth a shot. Unfortunately, Rex ruined that test when he claimed his actions.

However, Wryly's claim of her night action is a blessing. Unless she was messed with last nigh, she should have received word that her night action failed. Combine that with the fact that Thoth would by far, be a better target for a doctor and you have a really bad look. The NP1 waive also isn't great, and behaviorally, I'm now scumreading her due to the whole "Lunatic is faking everything" then a sudden switch to Casey from last DP. Never had a reason to townread her DP1 either. High scum odds.

The last question here is if Pie would leave a doctor out, and he has before: CoD Mafia had no doctor.

As for the teammate:

If Thoth is telling the truth, then the only role that could've possibly redirected me to myself is a Mirror Maker placed on Whiteflame, at which point Rex should've had his roleblock bounced back at himself, which is something I completely missed last DP (which is why I just realized I didn't need to wait on Thoth). This would easily make him the teammate, and the claim was simply something he pulled out of his ass. I've realized that although Rex is more passive of a player, it doesn't mean he can't try something when he's almost certainly going to be the lynch.

However, a custom role, or a simple lie from Thoth are not out of the question, although unlikely in my opinion. A mafia tracker/watcher is an interesting concept I've been thinking about here too. Still, I think Thoth looks better behaviorally. The only thing odd to me is how Thoth won't vote Wryly now, but was oh so willing to believe Lunatic last phase, even voting Wryly. At least I've had behaviors I've liked from Thoth. I've never really had a behavior I liked from Rex.

But here's the beauty of the situation: We don't need to worry about Rex vs.Thoth. We can solve that in the night phase.

If Rex dies, we know it's Thoth. If not, then it's Rex. Simple as. A refusal to comply is a lynch.

But for now, I've decided to vote Wryly.

VTL Wryly

for clarification, the idea is that Rex tries to roleblock Thoth in the night phase.

no instahammer is great sign

So my question to Mharman is this, which just occurred to me when I was answering Wryly. If Wryly is scum, why aren't you dead? If Wryly is scum and she was not CCd she knows that there are no protective roles. She and Thoth were going to NK between RT and you. Why one earth would they not kill you when you spent the last DP crowing that you could solve the game? I don't see a situation where they kill RT over you given the information that a scum team like taht would be acting upon. The only situations that make sense to me are to not target you either because they fear you are being protected or because you are scum. I don't see a situation where you are town and Wryly is scum.

no instahammer is great sign

It's a sign that either she is scum or you are.

no instahammer is great sign

It's a sign that either she is scum or you are.

Well you just gave one reason, the fear of protection. Two, they could've felt I was bluffing. I was trying to ham it up a bit just to attract something my way. It's possible they spotted that.

RT is kinda obnoxious to scum with his role too

It's a sign that either she is scum or you are.

Good.

Not home yet and only skimmed but I would definitely have protected Thoth if he wasnt in Luna's vision

NP1, I hid under Whiteflame, but didn't die,

You mean NP2 right

Wait no im dumb

No more distracted texting. I'll think this through once im at my desktop

Or that you both are and this is a bus.

I softed just about all of this, sure. By all means, me bus then lol

all this, but sure*

*let me bus

me no tpye

Not home yet and only skimmed but I would definitely have protected Thoth if he wasnt in Luna's vision

You seemed very confident that it was either Casey or Lunatic was lying. But sure, doesn't erase the other points I have on you

Possible scum teams:

Thoth/Mharman - This doesn't make sense to me because Thoth outed Mharman's self-visit which looks very sus.

Thoth/Wryly - This doesn't make sense to me because I think they would have killed Mharman. They would both be either trying to lynch me or Luna or trying to bus one or the other, but only Thoth is entertaining an anti-Dreamer theory and he's demonstrated in the last game that he becomes paranoid about that kind of thing.

Mharman/Wryly - This actually makes the most sense to me because the best way out of the dreamer bind is a bus. Then kill Luna, then mislynch me. Scum victory.

Thoughts? Want to get your input before I act. Maybe there's something I missed.

What are your thoughts on the possibility of a Wryly/Mharman scum team?

Look at the game with that in mind. It's interesting to me that DP1 Mharman lead the Mikal lynch and that Mikal basically taught Wryly how to play mafia. If I were Mharman with a partner who was 100% green newb scum with their hydra partner from their first game I would want him gone ASAP. Makes Mharman's hardon for Mikal make a lot more sense.

If Thoth isn't the tracker and fucked with Mharman NP1 and fucked with me last NP by redirecting me or some shit who would his partner be? Not Luna, because if Luna were a fake dreamer he wouldn't put Thoth in POE. Not Mharman because why reveal a self-visit which makes him look scummy? That only leaves Wryly, in which case targeting me doesn't make sense because it was risky to use my role last night and it would be expected that I waived it. It makes more sense to fuck with or kill Mharman. Thoth is looking more and more town tbh.

Erak Starfollower, Universal Backup. Justification is that I became the new Oberjarl after the previous one died, completing my foe-to-ally arc.

"Everything and nothing." I don't start the game with any power, which is the nothing. But the everything is that I could gain the power of another townie. With my version, I simply inherited the role of the first townie to die. That was Mikal.

Wait a minute, if you knew this was your role why on earth would you lead a lynch DP1 on a person who policy claimed an extremely anti-town role? There's a good chance of mislynching, and you would be stuck with that same shitty role in that case. If you actually had this role, it would make sense to lynch someone like me who had claimed a soft-power role to prevent being lynched when I was widely scumread. Because my death wouldn't matter, because you would get any claimed power role. Yet in DP1 you said explicitly pushed over and over again to lynch Mikal over me.