Ranger’s Apprentice Mafia DP3

Forgot to tag you in 85

Why would I ever lynch a secondary scum read over my primary one? My role is less important in that situation

Why would I ever lynch a secondary scum read over my primary one? My role is less important in that situation

Because it's DP1. Scum reads are almost always wrong, being confected from behavior which is itself often affected to generate activity ex nihilo. And being stuck with a hider role is a severe, potentially game-losing disability to town. The main benefit to lynching a hider is that town no longer has to deal with that possibility. That's why I lynched him. In your case, you knew that potentially mislynching him meant turning yourself into that liability, and then didn't tell town about it for the rest of the game. I could have roleblocked you and confirmed you as town at any point if this were true while also preventing you from getting incidentally killed. Leaving you alive if this is true also basically gives us a 50% chance of losing tonight even if we lynch scum. If you were town you would not want to be brought to the endgame and handicap us so severely.

VTL Mharman

Official Vote Count:

Wryly (1/3) - Mharman

Mag1cman (1/3) - REF

The following scum team possibilities are eliminated by there not being a lynch so far:

Luna Me - Would have lynched Wryly

Luna Thoth - Would have lynched Mharman or Wryly

Luna Wryly - Would have lynched Mharman

Wryly Thoth - Would have lynched Mharman

Me Luna - Would have lynched Wryly

The following scum teams are still possible:

Mharman Me

Mharman Thoth

Mharman Wryly

Mharman Luna

Wryly Me

Would like you get your input on why each of these five is/is not likely. Obviously from my perspective this locks in Mharman as scum.

Wait so who did you hide behind np1? What explains the track of you visiting yourself? I missed it skimming your novel

What was the reason for all the hesitance behind your claim?

If there are two scum, and I don't see why there wouldn't be, they would have already hammered wryly or magicman right? Which means there is exactly one scum between the two of them.

Which means there is exactly one scum between the two of them.

Or two

Or two

I know, they could both be scum. I am still thinking I want to stick between dreamer results though and hit wryly or thoth. I feel increasingly good about you, i'd almost venture to say I don't think there is any way you could be scum, but that's probably not smart. Either way, I am not even considering you as a lynch option for today.

can someone explain what I am missing in mharmans novel? What is his exact claimed night actions? All I am seeing is that he claimed a visit on whiteflame dp1 and somehow got tracked to himself? Not sure how tracking a hider would look. What did he do np2? He made it sound like his plan was to visit me but didn't confirm?

I know, they could both be scum. I am still thinking I want to stick between dreamer results though and hit wryly or thoth. I feel increasingly good about you, i'd almost venture to say I don't think there is any way you could be scum, but that's probably not smart. Either way, I am not even considering you as a lynch option for today.

I'd rather hit Mharman because I think that Thoth could be convinced to mislynch me by Mharman after you're dead due to being paranoid and.Wryly might be able to be convinced because she's a noob. I also am not 100% sure about either of them but I am much surer about Mharman. Finally, I don't think a Wryly/Thoth team is possible now or they would have lynched Mharman. That means that if we lynch within POE with have a 50% chance to hit scum by naked odds but if we lynch outside it we have a 66% chance. Sticking to POE actually hurts our odds.

I kind of get the logic there. I kind of want to wait until wryly gets home and posts first, because if she is scum with thoth the game could be over already, and maybe they just havent been home to coordinate the hammer. Just wanna eliminate that as a possibility first and wait for her to post.

Home and playing catch-up. Lun, did Pie give you 1x or 2x dreamer?

1x dreamer

So Rex wasn't risking blocking a second vision of yours by targeting you. Though it's unclear if he knew that or not.

At this point I can't be sure Thoth is a tracker at all. If his scummate was Magic then his first track results could be fabricated. And this DP he tracked someone who had already posted his movements. Claiming tracker would be a great way to try to tempt me to target him. I almost did.

If you the doctor, I'd hope it "makes sense to you".

This post really rubs me the wrong way based on its phrasing, sounds like a scum slip lol

It makes sense to me that Pie included a doctor in the game since the other protective roles can also be liabilities.

I am not sure how many noob passes to keep giving you

17.

Thats literally my justification. If you don't like it take it up with pie in the endgame.

I could be barking up the wrong tree here like I was when I thought that campfire character didn't fit with a poison healer in Magic's game.

If it was Rex and Luna, Thoth wouldn't have tracked Rex visiting Luna. Why would scum visit scum. Is that a thing?

If it was Rex and Thoth, Thoth would never have VTL'd Rex in DP1. Bussing seems unlikely, he could easily have just gone inactive like he did for the Mikal lynch.

If it was Rex and Magic, Rex wouldn't be VTLing Magic right now.

If it was Thoth and Luna, Thoth wouldn't have shown up in Luna's fake POE dream. Why POE a scummate.

If it was Luna and Magic, Rex would be dead.

I'm looking at Thoth and Magic.

I was aware of the possibility of this ending the game but I was willing to gamble on it because it was critical to lynch scum next DP, and if Luna was scum he would probably carry out the NK to avoid his teammate from doing anything incriminating.

Could you explain that last part, I'm having a brain fart.

The fact the Luna was roleblocked would also confirm to him that I visited him if he were town. So I feel like if he were scum and creating this false POE my targeting him would stop the NK and kill me, allowing me to be tracked to him if Thoth and Wryly were town.

So you didn't know that Luna was a 1x Dreamer, meaning he wouldn't be aware of being roleblocked at all and this tactic was for naught.

Also not clear on how targeting Luna would stop the NK if Luna was scum.

If it was Magic and Thoth I wonder what the theme split is. There's nothing apparently in common with Erak Starfollower and Gilan.

I was aware of the possibility of this ending the game but I was willing to gamble on it because it was critical to lynch scum next DP, and if Luna was scum he would probably carry out the NK to avoid his teammate from doing anything incriminating.

Could you explain that last part, I'm having a brain fart.

If Luna were scum I imagine his teammate would be out of POE (so RT or Magic) The NK target would also be outside of POE. So, if Luna and Magic or Luna and RT were scum, Luna was under less suspicion than them and would be less likely to be investigated as he had also claimed a passive role. Therefore, he would probably volunteer to carry out the NK as it was lower risk that he would be caught doing so. This way I figured that even if Luna was scum and I ended up dying I would hit the scum carrying out the NK and also prevent the NK, balancing out my own death.

The fact the Luna was roleblocked would also confirm to him that I visited him if he were town. So I feel like if he were scum and creating this false POE my targeting him would stop the NK and kill me, allowing me to be tracked to him if Thoth and Wryly were town.

So you didn't know that Luna was a 1x Dreamer, meaning he wouldn't be aware of being roleblocked at all and this tactic was for naught.

Yeah I had no idea, if he said that previously I missed it.

Also not clear on how targeting Luna would stop the NK if Luna was scum.

If the person carrying out the night kill is roleblocked it also stops the NK.

If it was Magic and Thoth I wonder what the theme split is. There's nothing apparently in common with Erak Starfollower and Gilan.

Well I'd assume at least one is using a fake claim.

Yeahhh only now realizing I didn't understand how NKs work at all. I thought scum like submitted their NK decision to the moderator and the moderator basically carried it out. I did not think one scum or the other executed it or that it was a traceable visit like any role action, or that a roleblock stops it.

If it was Rex and Luna, Thoth wouldn't have tracked Rex visiting Luna. Why would scum visit scum. Is that a thing?

If it was rex and me, and you were town why haven't joined mharman and hammered you already for the win?

If it was Rex and Thoth, Thoth would never have VTL'd Rex in DP1. Bussing seems unlikely, he could easily have just gone inactive like he did for the Mikal lynch.

If it's Rex and thoth why haven't they hammered you already?

If it was Rex and Magic, Rex wouldn't be VTLing Magic right now.

This is impossible, because it would mean I was lying about my dreamer results and would have to be scum, and if there were three scum the game would be over.

Whats holding me up about thoth and magic theory is why thoth did see the self visit on magic? If magic is planning a bus here it is with him and wryly. I still don't understand how magic hiding behind whiteflame would show up to a tracker as having visited himself. Also the whole entry with them not wanting to claim until the other had, but then just both doing it anyway and not scum reading each other was weird.

Apart from just agreeing with a lot of Rex's analysis, the main thing that's holding me back from seeing him as scum is that after the casey mislynch if he was scum he would have an easy time convincing people I was scum. Him town confirming me limits his options. He would have had to really bank on thinking this would manipulate me into town reading him, which is arguably more of a gamble then just letting things play out, and the alternate leads for more chaos and mislynch potential. If Rex is scum this was very well played, but I think the common demoninator here is magic. Thoth and wryly will continue to be a conflicting issue, but I am leaning hardest towards lynching magic now.

So, Rex can use his role on scum that might be doing the NK with the risk of two townie deaths in one night (if he calls the mafioso committing the NK wrong) and that’s fine and dandy.

but when I’m not scared of lynching my top scumread because I might have to deal with a garbage role later on, it’s horrible and scummy, because I should have… not lynched my top scumread on the belief that he’s just lying about his role??

And there’s more bullshit in his arguments I’ll get to in the morning. I’m tired. At least I know the teammate now.

I've played quite a few Mafia games, mainly under the name Werewolf, but this kind of in-depth endgame analysis is new to me. I'm saying that because I'm enjoying it for the first time, not to play the noob card, and despite enjoying it, I am in the unenviable position of scumreading everyone.

I'm sure I will think of more to say later, but for now I will dump the thoughts I've had while catching up with day chat.

I was gonna make a joke about it but I was like nah theyre too in the game to want jokes in the mafia thread

(Post #61) That's exactly why we need them!

I asked Pie this but ofc he couldn't answer. Does the dreamer only get one vision?

(Post #63) From what I've found, whether or not Dreamer is one-use varies by game-master. Perhaps more importantly, and not to patronize you if you already knew this, Dreamers can't get a Dream on nights when they are visited.

[Magic's claim in post #68]

I don't know whether I buy it or not. I can't point out any flaws in your logic, if only because I don't fully understand it, and your justification makes sense, but this feels concocted after-the-fact because of how complicated it is and how long it took you to post it. I may be wrong due to lack of experience with setups on here, but I do at least see the logic of Universal Backup in a game which, if we believe all other claims, has only one real protective (Wryly) and investigative (me) role, although Rex and Lunatic's claimed roles partially fill those gaps.

The only thing odd to me is how Thoth won't vote Wryly now, but was oh so willing to believe Lunatic last phase, even voting Wryly.

(Post #68) Ignoring the fact that I cast doubt on the Dreamer (post #129 from yesterday), suggested that Lunatic and Rex could be a scum team (#143), and swapped to Casey before ultimately not voting.

If Thoth is telling the truth, then the only role that could've possibly redirected me to myself is a Mirror Maker placed on Whiteflame

Hiders can't be redirected in any other way?

I'm mildly ashamed to admit it, but I don't understand the Mirror Maker thing.

I don't see a situation where they kill RT over you given the information that a scum team like taht would be acting upon.

(Post #71) Regardless of who scum are, they could have been banking on discrediting Magic by letting him live in hopes that the information would not be self-proving.

What are your thoughts on the possibility of a Wryly/Mharman scum team?

Look at the game with that in mind. It's interesting to me that DP1 Mharman lead the Mikal lynch and that Mikal basically taught Wryly how to play mafia. If I were Mharman with a partner who was 100% green newb scum with their hydra partner from their first game I would want him gone ASAP. Makes Mharman's hardon for Mikal make a lot more sense.

(Post #88) If the facts here are true, I agree with the analysis. I still need to go back and look at the whole game with everything in mind, and I will try to finish that tonight.

Not Luna, because if Luna were a fake dreamer he wouldn't put Thoth in POE.

(Post #89) Not to imply that Luna or I are scum, but rumor has reached me (before this game started) that Lunatic is notorious for taking ridiculous risks like this, hence why I have been moderately skeptical of him being the Dreamer.

Wait a minute, if you knew this was your role why on earth would you lead a lynch DP1 on a person who policy claimed an extremely anti-town role? There's a good chance of mislynching, and you would be stuck with that same shitty role in that case.

(Post #90) I've been writing this as I read through the thread. Scratch whatever I said about having any reason to believe Magic.

Re: Post #96. Surely you understood that those five teams had not yet been eliminated because nobody except Pie had posted since the most recent vote. They might not have been around to drop the hammer.

If it was Rex and Luna, Thoth wouldn't have tracked Rex visiting Luna. Why would scum visit scum. Is that a thing?

(Post #109) I can't think of any specific roles that fit with Rex visiting Luna when both are scum, but I was suspicious during day 2, and still am, that I saw Magic self-apply some scum ability.

If it was Thoth and Luna, Thoth wouldn't have shown up in Luna's fake POE dream. Why POE a scummate.

(Post #109) Again, not to suggest that Luna and I are scum, but see above.

So you didn't know that Luna was a 1x Dreamer, meaning he wouldn't be aware of being roleblocked at all and this tactic was for naught.

(Post #110) Are you speaking hypothetically, or did Lunatic claim 1x Dreamer?

If it was Magic and Thoth I wonder what the theme split is. There's nothing apparently in common with Erak Starfollower and Gilan.

(Post #111) Scum could be lying about their characters whether they are Magic and I or not. If I correctly understand that "theme split" means that the scum characters are canonically linked, the only pair that I see fitting that criterion is Morgarath (Lunatic) and Wargals (Rex), which means that at least one of the following is true: Lunatic and Rex are scum; at least one player is lying about their character; there are characters linked in a way I missed, not being a full-blown lore lord. Luna/Rex being scum seems impossible given that they would have hammered Wryly.

If the person carrying out the night kill is roleblocked it also stops the NK.

(Post #112) I did not know this. Your action last night seems less suicidal now that I do.

If it was rex and me, and you were town why haven't joined mharman and hammered you already for the win?

If it's Rex and thoth why haven't they hammered you already?

(Post #114) For once, logic that I absolutely, unironically cannot fault, as much as I don't like the Morgarath/Wargals connection.

If Rex is scum this was very well played, but I think the common demoninator here is magic. Thoth and wryly will continue to be a conflicting issue, but I am leaning hardest towards lynching magic now.

(Post #116) I agree that Magic is the common denominator. The lack of a hammer has narrowed scum to Magic/anyone or Rex/Wryly. I will abstain from voting for now on the off chance that it's Rex/Wryly.

Lunatic: Did you get a message last night about being unable to use your Dreamer ability? If so, did it specifically say that you were role-blocked? If not, do you think it was different from the message that you would have gotten if you had been visited by a non-role-blocking ability?

but when I’m not scared of lynching my top scumread because I might have to deal with a garbage role later on, it’s horrible and scummy, because I should have… not lynched my top scumread on the belief that he’s just lying about his role??

(Post #117) This came after I started writing my responses to the previous posts. I see your logic here, for sure, but, as Rex pointed out in post #93, scumreads from day 1 are unreliable short of the most egregious scumslip.

If it was rex and me, and you were town why haven't joined mharman and hammered you already for the win?

If it's Rex and thoth why haven't they hammered you already

This is impossible, because it would mean I was lying about my dreamer results and would have to be scum, and if there were three scum the game would be over.

Also if it was Rex and you, why not NK Magic or me.

Also if it was Rex and Thoth why not NK Magic.

Yeah it appears to be stacking up.