Purely probabilistically, ignoring information, assuming a random Lynch every day, assuming there’s no CC:
Scenario 1:
60% chance of lynching town D1 -> 50% chance of lynching town d2 -> 30% chance scum wins by D2
Scenario 2a/b
4 v 2 -> 3 v 1 -> 2 v1 ->
60% chance of lynching town D1 -> 50% chance of lynching scum d2 -> 66% chance of lynching Town D3 (2v1) -> 10% chance scum wins D4, 10% chance Town wins D4
Scenario 3:
60% chance of lynching Town D1 -> 50% chance of lynching scum d2 -> 33% chance of lynching Scum 3 -> 10% chance
Scenario 4:
4v1 -> 4v0
40% chance of lynching Scum D1 -> 25% chance of lynching scum D2 -> 10% Town
Scenario 5:
4v1 -> 3v1 -> 2v1 -> 1v1
40% -> 75% -> 66% -> 50% = 4/10 * 3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2 = 10% Scum
Scenario 6:
4 v 1 -> 3v1 -> 3v0
...
Too many to list. I don’t think there are that many but I don’t wanna continue. From a purely random Lynch perspective (which doesn’t exist), I think the setup is balanced. I’ll think about this tomorrow.