You are offered $1000 one day, following by daily doubling, but there's a catch

At first one can think as Satan Lucy did, there's logic to it of course.

We lack a lot of data on others, as well as of the trustworthiness of the one offering us (for all we know it's a scam big time).

So, based on current economics and the realistic outlook of how likely it is to disappear, we must aim for exactly day 6.

On day 6, you will have amassed 1 x 2^(6-1) which is 32,000 I am presuming USD.

Now, if being extremely conservative, you'd want to wait to only Day 4 and take 8,000 but I will trust in God, if he doesn't want me meddling with those promisers of money and that money, I'll accept it.

An amount of 16,000 is okay that can be the start of something huge but takes more years to snowball into what 32,000 instantly can get rolling.

with exactly 32k rather than 16k you can begin paying off old loans, buying things, whatever on the side of hiring a decent stockbroker to help invest in stocks (they cost 1-2 thousand for a year unless you're going for an extremely proficient one and that's without you paying more for the investments). This set your ball rolling to end up elite pretty soon, lets you go back to whatever job you were doing or even lets you start a small business with a few months rent paid at a cheap apartment anywhere, especially if sharing. You even can call yourself a self-employed investor if they 100% won't allow you to rent while unemployed and it won't be an entire lie, in a legal sense hiring a stockbroker is the equivalent of a restaurant owner hiring a manager.

You need to get the ball rolling for your buy-and-sell business of some sort and eventually automate most of it and/or hire people to work for you.

Snowball, snowball and you're done.

This all assumes you don't begin with a wife/husband and children in which case I still would aim exactly at the 32k sweet spot.

Any more and you're risking it disappearing too much.

If 16k disappears there, some will care. If desperate stop there or even at the 8k.

You didnt catch what I said about the stocks and shares part

You are so smart tell me how rich you are then

SatanLucy wrote:

Since probabilities are unknown and there are no impossible probabilities, it means all probabilities are possible, and average of all is 50%. That's true for each day.

So you can expect 50% chance to lose all your money on day 2.

So just pick it up at day one and be happy with what you got.

I don't do lottery.

Classic low iq reasoning

I'd wait until my expected value actually makes a difference for my finances. So if i am offered "1k or refuse and take the chances for the next day", 1k would practically not make any difference in my life at all so i would take the chances for the next day. Since the offer vanishes at some point on a random day and we know there are infinite future days (given the timeframe is not tied to my life expectancy) then the chances for the offer to disappear on any given day are really low, so i would take the chances up to maybe 64k. could be lower, but i am doing alright nowadays so whatever. even if the time frame is not that long, there are enough days in my lifetime to make the chances of the offer disappearing really low on any given day.

Since the problem says the disappearance date is random but gives no finite horizon or probability distribution, the natural interpretation is that no finite day has appreciably greater probability than another. Under a very long finite horizon, the probability of losing the offer before any particular day is correspondingly very small. That is what random means. It was never stated that a human who wants to be nasty picks the day.

I'll go for it day 4; $8,000, turn it over [with $1,000 of my own] to buy 2 oz of gold, and sit on that. Either gold, or about 120 oz of silver, and keep my $1,000. A much better investent than the stock market, in which I have only ever had but two stocks: Apple, and Amazon.

And if the offer closed day 3, eh bien. I didn't have it in the first place, did I, so, no net loss.

So we both agreed 32k is the sweet spot.

After about 40 days I've exceeded global household wealth and if I pour all that into trying to solve global problems, I cause severe inflation. Maybe the ends justify the means, but humanity can only do and produce so much to solve global problems. After a certain point money can't create significant additional incentives. I would probably wait 30-40 days for enough to wipe out global poverty and fund healthcare research and tech to solve global environmental problems. I could probably gain significant influence in exchange as well which might help with policy reforms and solutions.

Dude its not likely they warn you the deal can disappear instantly and give you 30 let alone 40 days

I'm gambling on the possibility they made it way longer than expected. They mentioned years so it's possible. And the payoff for humanity is insanely huge.

😂😂 Ok

A month will do it for me, half a trillion is enough.

Daydream,

Day eight at $128,000,

I've had $64,000 before.

Real life,

If some guy on the street or online offered this to me, I'd be pretty tempted to take the $1,000 on day one as SatanLucy says in post #2.

The probability is unknown, most casinos though, 1:1, except for the fact of extra numbers, and low max bet.

Sure it's 'possible some rich person is giving me a hidden 1% failure rate, and is willing to give me millions of dollars, but it seems unlikely.

Maybe the probability is just their whim of when to stop giving me money.

. . . I'd be tempted to stop at $1,000. . .

But heck with it, day eight, $128,000.

New level of money saved in life, and hefty amount for investment into something.

If im worried fully Id match fauxlaw and try at 8k.

If i trust it somewhat im going for the 32k

If you think about it, its pointles for them to take it beforehand. If they take it exactly between 16-32 thats a day 5 ending... Seems off. Theyd want towards a week. Just how humans work

I will wait for 10 days. Let's go for a gamble(a gamble with risk tending to 0) . I mean if there's a possibility that it will disappear after 1000 years or 10,000 years too. See, I am going ro limit it to Let's say 100 years, no Let's just go for 100 days. It's a Given that it can disappear at any day, on day 1 there's a 1% unlucky chance. On day 2 it's either it disappeared on day 1 already or it disappeared on the very day 2. So there's a 2% unlucky Chance. Similarly on day 8, there's a 8% unlucky factor. But wait, the constraints say that there's no time limit!!

So let's do a thought experiment, I will consider 100 years, and it disappears in any year, possibility is same.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .... 100th year(1% chance of failure)

1 2 3 4 5 6 6 8 ..... 1000th(0.1% chance of failure)

And the number tends to 0

I picked 10 days to not crash the world economy.

Satan Lucy's argument shows a lack of Knowledge of probabilities. It's a poor argument, which is mathematically inaccurate

I will wait for 10 days. Let's go for a gamble(a gamble with risk tending to 0) . I mean if there's a possibility that it will disappear after 1000 years or 10,000 years too. See, I am going ro limit it to Let's say 100 years, no Let's just go for 100 days. It's a Given that it can disappear at any day, on day 1 there's a 1% unlucky chance. On day 2 it's either it disappeared on day 1 already or it disappeared on the very day 2. So there's a 2% unlucky Chance. Similarly on day 8, there's a 8% unlucky factor. But wait, the constraints say that there's no time limit!!

So let's do a thought experiment, I will consider 100 years, and it disappears in any year, possibility is same.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .... 100th year(1% chance of failure)

1 2 3 4 5 6 6 8 ..... 1000th(0.1% chance of failure)

And the number tends to 0

I picked 10 days to not crash the world economy.

Satan Lucy's argument shows a lack of Knowledge of probabilities. It's a poor argument, which is mathematically inaccurate

the thing you're missing, while you do see what SatanLucy missed, is that we need to wager what realistically these 'gameshow' hosts are willing to part with and must consider why the warning comes instantly, to make it a fair game.

It is unlikely it goes past day 8. I think they're going to give you about a week but day 7 itself is still an unsafe gamble.

Hmmm, one month. ...just because.

Yes, such is a hypothetical proposition.

So don't go and order that new vehicle just yet.

My reply followed mathematical constraints mostly, and reality constraints because just adding a few more days can get pas 1 trillion USD. Definitely I will live a happy life with one more day, 2 more days and my upcoming generations won't have to do any work. But life will get monotonous then.

the question is if you believe the same type of 'gameshow' host warning you day 1 that the offer is ending any day, is going to let you wait 10 days for sure or not.

I think the expectation is most will greed it out or they will go the satanlucy route and take the 1k day 1. They're not bluffing about an ending but if they make it too soon, for too little, it kills the research and the entertainment value of whatever they're doing in my opinion.

They will likely wait for the 32-64 mark, precisely, because the type of people who will wait past 16k generally will also wait to 64, this is just about comfort thresholds, look at the general group psychology here, you have the waiters and the scared runners, only 2 in cluding me went for the sweetspot and even the other guy was saying he'd wait more likely to the 64k.

I strongly predict 32k, day 6 is the sweet spot where day 7 is the cancel day. This makes for good research data, good entertainment value and good budgeting to do this to many.