Who loses more with the collapse of the US-Canada trade deal?

It seems pretty straightforward that, given the difference in the size of our economies, the flow of goods and services across the 49th parallel contributes a bigger chunk of their economy than it does ours (edit: yup, a 15-second Google search confirmed this). I also don't see how the EU market can replace Canada's full volume of trade with the US, given that they're presumably already buying whatever goods Canada has to offer from other suppliers and won't just ditch them (especially if a fellow EU member state actually located in Europe) for Canada.

This thing is like 90% driven by spite rather than practicality. Not that it wouldn't hurt us on some level too but this is a classic case of shooting yourself in the foot to give someone else a migraine from the sound of the gunshot. Or, if Mark Carney has a lick of sense about him, it'll be a largely ceremonial "decoupling" from the Trump-era US that has little practical effect.

Canada has no choice but to declare its independence from America because of Trump. It will take a small hit but will bounce back as it makes new trade relations. Canada us rich in natural resources.

bubbatheclown wrote

This thing is like 90% driven by spite rather than practicality. Not that it wouldn't hurt us on some level too but this is a classic case of shooting yourself in the foot to give someone else a migraine from the sound of the gunshot. Or, if Mark Carney has a lick of sense about him, it'll be a largely ceremonial "decoupling" from the Trump-era US that has little practical effect.

So you think Canadians are willing to starve before caving in and accepting Trump's terms?

Considering the level of wokeness in Canada, that's a possibility. Woke people are idiots by nature.

Woke AI is helping to destroy Canada.

Woke AI is only active in America. Canadians all agree Americans are not smart enough to learn AI.

Yes 50% of Americans voted Trump...That's how "not smart" they are.

And "woke" is just another load of socio-political nonsense...Because if Canadians don't want American consumer goodies they should just stop buying them.

Because it only takes 7hrs or so to get a plane load of crumpets to Ontario...So fuck bagels...In fact even fucking bagels are Polish.

But if anyone is tempted to fuck a bagel, make sure you let it cool for a few minutes.

Woke AI is in Canada. Woke AI is helping to destroy Canada.

Yes 50% of Americans voted Trump...That's how "not smart" they are.

Yes, they are very stupid, according to your average Communist.

And Communists are very evil geniuses, according to your average Trumpie.

Even Canada’s prime minister Carney is better educated than Trump.

Yes, such is Batman syndrome.

I'd pick stupid over evil any day, Batman.

Americans combined the two stupid and evil and picked Trump.

That's how Communists feel.

Misterio wrote:

I just want to know if you are on the same page.

Trump doesn't want to make any deal with Canada, he simply wants Canada to fail because of the obscene level of wokeness they have reached.

To me, Canada has much more to lose in this dispute because the US is the best trade partner they could ask for and Trump is playing with it. Even the proposal to incorporate Canada into the European Union as an associate member won't be of any use.

So, Trump believes he can pressure Canadians into removing the current woke government and replacing it with a non-woke administration to get trade back to normal. I'm not an economic expert but if Canada doesn't accept Trump's terms, they are fked.

Am I wrong?

No doubt Trump can cause Canada some pain, that's about the only thing Trump is really good at, but they will recover, and when they do it will be as part of a new world order in terms of trade, alliances, and allegiances, will be very different. Trump is driving Canada and The EU closer to each other and to China, China can take up the slack for Canada with chump change, everybody knows the US can't be trusted, and China is offering to be their friend.

Fact is, we need the rest of the world more than the rest of the world needs us, they will recover in the short term ,and in the long term, the US is the biggest loser in Trump's latest trade war. The US will suffer for decades after Trump is gone, and comparatively, the rest of the world will prosper.

but they will recover, and when they do it will be as part of a new world order in terms of trade, alliances, and allegiances, will be very different.

You're full of shit. Canada hasn't recovered in 11 years since we dabbled in Trudeau's vision of corpo-globalism.

About 4.1% TOTAL GDP growth in ten years....

If you think Canada is going to be fine with or without Trump in the States, I have some Communist propaganda to send your way to keep you happy.

You speak like a spoiled victim who has no clue what it's like across the pond.

This is what ungrateful Americans complain about? I'd hate to see the tears from real suffering.

The tariffs have slowed growth, raised prices and hurt manufacturing in America, plus it has hurt Americas reputation.

The graph says you are lying

If Canada gives in now because they have more to lose, then everyone knows they can just take advantage of Canada. That's why it's not a good long term strategy to give in to threats, even if the threat is significant.

That's why you negotiate instead of making idle threats against a superpower.

That's why you negotiate instead of making idle threats against a superpower.

Maybe I'm missing context. What specific threats are you referring to? Canada did retaliatory tariffs, but that's not an idle threat if they actually did it.

Specifically, Ford threatened to shut off electricity exports to New York, Michigan, and Minnesota entirely; he imposed a temporary surcharge but never carried out the cutoff. Federally, Canada also threatened a further C$125B in tariffs beyond the initial measures, and that tranche was never imposed. Those are the uncarried threats I meant.

That's a fair point. I don't think Ford should say he's going to do x, y, and z unless he actually intends to do x, y, and z when negotiations fail. But I still hold to my original point that Canada shouldn't just do whatever the US demands even if the US has made credible threats. I think that kind of strategy just leads to more and more increasing threats because other countries know know they will give in.

Like I said, that's why you negotiate instead of making idle threats.

I agree, but I also think that description is a bit harsh. They are negotiating and showing some legitimate leverage even if they sometimes make threats they don't carry out to the letter.

Politically, it's suicide for Canada to negotiate. Getting a good trade deal isn't going to fix our economy at this point, as it's been pretty stagnant for 11 years, good deals or none. And getting any deal where the economy flatlines is political suicide, so it's in Canada's political interest to torpedo every deal.

Wait so first you wanted them to negotiate, now you don't want them to? I'm not sure I understand your position.

My position =/= the political power positions. Most people actually don't align along incentives if they take a moment to think about it. I'm saying: they should negotiate, but their stagnant economy means any deal that doesn’t visibly and vastly improve things is politically toxic, so they’re incentivized to reject deals with the upside of redirected public unrest. No contradiction. Under the most favorable deals in the past, Canada still lagged. It's nearly impossible to get an even better one under any US president, certainly not to the degree that would have any noticeable effect.

Could be true, but I think the tariffs don't help either.