Alien Mafia DP3

So who wants to hear a conspiracy theory?

Last time Luna had a Yakuza in the game, Casey was the Yakuza and WF was the scum partner. They fucked up using the Yakuza. Second chance to redeem themselves?

Debating how to do this because I don’t think to much more is going to come out. I am going to make some assumptions based off the rest of the game and operate that way going forward. It’s all I have and I don’t think anyone is going to say much to change it because all of it is public and I don’t like twiddling my thumbs

1) I think David is the recruit. It’s still the only thing that makes sense to me for them to jump and die for np1. This means we have to focus on the other scum. Mixed in with the TMI and him explaining that Casey was inactive so it made sense for her to use it. He should be tomorrows lynch if we get there

2) I am town locking Castin. Could she have been recruited. Yes it’s unlikely. If mafia did not pick David. They would have picked blindly. It makes no sense to pick Castin over wf, pie, or myself. But if Castin is scum based on behavior and that genuine town slip she had earlier on the game. Castins role along with what I was given last night is the only real way to gather info about skeps character. If this is wrong. Then it is what it is.

that leaves who do we target today. Granted from someone else’s pov I could be scum but I know I’m town so I’m leaving me out

wf or pie

wf - the thing that is making me second guess this is the role balance. There has not been a protective role other than Thoth. It was a shitty protective role. With wf being able to grab that from the graveyard it makes way more sense from a balance perspective. Do mafia really just get to free kill and still have town die the following np with no chance of protecting and if Thoth dies there is 0 protection.

leaves me pie - from the start of the game since dp1 I’ve questioned it. I felt like he was soft claiming a power role dp1 and changed it after I said he could confirm me and suggested he had to be passive. Martyr is also obscure. Basically a beloved and a good way for to explain why he’s not dead. I am also stuck on Casey’s PM. We know that character exists in the game and from a theme analysis standpoint, it’s the only one that makes sense. That doctor turns her into a queen. I know Luna said the theme was hard but imagine if that recruit did not get used at the start. That theme becomes a lot harder to see.

I think I’m content with this path

kill pie

kill David and if David is not scum, have David shot wf last dp. If David is scum we win.

that is prob the solve either way between wf or pie but I’m leaning pie to start with over wf. Largely because if the one we pick is town the game is over. They could just both be scum too.

2) I am town locking Castin. Could she have been recruited. Yes it’s unlikely. If mafia did not pick David. They would have picked blindly. It makes no sense to pick Castin over wf, pie, or myself. But if Castin is scum based on behavior and that genuine town slip she had earlier on the game. Castins role along with what I was given last night is the only real way to gather info about skeps character. If this is wrong. Then it is what it is.

This is the correct play from town POV. Pie is more likely to be a recruit than Castin or you. Lynch white flame today and lynch me tomorrow. I’ll kill pie and town wins

wf - the thing that is making me second guess this is the role balance. There has not been a protective role other than Thoth. It was a shitty protective role. With wf being able to grab that from the graveyard it makes way more sense from a balance perspective. Do mafia really just get to free kill and still have town die the following np with no chance of protecting and if Thoth dies there is 0 protection. 

The thing that I keep coming back to is that Luna said that Thoth couldn’t replace back in. That must mean there’s some role out there that prevents him from coming back, and the only role even remotely similar is Whiteflame’s

leaves me pie - from the start of the game since dp1 I’ve questioned it. I felt like he was soft claiming a power role dp1 and changed it after I said he could confirm me and suggested he had to be passive. Martyr is also obscure.

Developer and Scavenger are also obscure.

Basically a beloved and a good way for to explain why he’s not dead. I am also stuck on Casey’s PM. We know that character exists in the game and from a theme analysis standpoint, it’s the only one that makes sense. That doctor turns her into a queen. I know Luna said the theme was hard but imagine if that recruit did not get used at the start. That theme becomes a lot harder to see. 

Here’s the thematic link between David and Wren. They were both engineering Xenomorphs and are immoral af. Also, we’re back to the whole game of who was converted and who wasn’t. The goal should be to catch the original scum and via POE that has to be Whiteflame.

You were adamant about the motivator so you aren’t OG scum

I had soft claimed DP1. I wanted scum to either kill me or get waste an action on me. I can’t be OG scum

Wryly is basically the sole investigative, so she can’t be the OG scum

Kohai had no reason to CC Thoth in DP1 as OG scum.

That leaves Whiteflame. It’s possible your role could have other protectives in it as well. Not to mention even a single successful apportionment at the beginning of the game would basically mod confirm Thoth and the player whose life was extended.

I think I’m content with this path 

kill pie 

kill David and if David is not scum, have David shot wf last dp. If David is scum we win. 

This assumes that I’m the original scum, which I’m not.

that is prob the solve either way between wf or pie but I’m leaning pie to start with over wf. Largely because if the one we pick is town the game is over. They could just both be scum too.

This is the correct play from town POV. Pie is more likely to be a recruit than Castin or you. Lynch white flame today and lynch me tomorrow. I’ll kill pie and town wins

Mikal = Pie in terms of recruitment.

You are to hard focused on that. Younare blanket assuming they are the scum game. I’m not convinced that you are so both of you pushing wf so hard really bothers me.

it reads like, kill him and we will deal with it tomorrow. Knowing the game is over if it goes through. If you are town you think that is the for sure scum team because you Castin and I locked. Why are you not even considering going pie first as in your mind the result should be the same

Also, can you expand on your justification? Paraphrase your PM

Am I miss reading this game wrong. Is there a world where David is og scum and fake claimed. I really dislike the wf tunnel. It’s considering nothing else and seems very forced.

it reads like, kill him and we will deal with it tomorrow. Knowing the game is over if it goes through. If you are town you think that is the for sure scum team because you Castin and I locked. Why are you not even considering going pie first as in your mind the result should be the same

Why are you adamant on Pie going first when Pie can only be the recruited scum. Whiteflame via POE has to be the original scum. Curious to hear how I could be the original scum

I think you absolutely could be

original and I also think there is now a possibility even David could be based on how hard the tunnel is.

you are named in the pm. Easy enough to just claim your character. I said it earlier from a balance Poe it’s a way to make the yazkua less op. You also seemed like you softed a power role and adjusted it after I said I motivated you.

this you and David. Let’s kill wf and solve tomorrow shit reads me so wrong

Am I miss reading this game wrong. Is there a world where David is og scum and fake claimed. I really dislike the wf tunnel. It’s considering nothing else and seems very forced.

Why does David as OG scum CC a townie and then just full claim first? That makes zero sense

There are to many scenarios and moments are being considered

you are og and picked David

david is og and picked you

wf is og and picked either one of you

again locking Castin because I don’t think she would have bee the target as a new player and I know I’m town. You three are the Choices and we have to leave David till last

its this idea of let’s pick him first and solve and how hard it’s being sold. It bleeds like both of you are scum

It’s a safe claim. I think that is less likely but it’s possible.

I was going with wf in my gut because I’d the rb thing in Supas pm but the 2v1 knowing this is mylo rubs me wrong

I think you absolutely could be

original and I also think there is now a possibility even David could be based on how hard the tunnel is. 

On what basis? David can’t be original. Neither can I. I softclaimed in DP1 to bait the NK or at the very least harmful actions. And

you are named in the pm. Easy enough to just claim your character. I said it earlier from a balance Poe it’s a way to make the yazkua less op. You also seemed like you softed a power role and adjusted it after I said I motivated you. 

This while softed a power role is a tomato tomahto. It’s all WIFOM. I tried to bait the NK. That’s a consistent fact. Why are you overlooking WF?

this you and David. Let’s kill wf and solve tomorrow shit reads me so wrong 

Why can’t WF be the original scum?

I didn’t say it could not be wf. I’m saying all 3 of you could be. it’s less likely it’s David but it’s possible. I think David is more than likely the recruit because of how fast he claimed

so again it’s likely you or wf and this 2v1 has red flags going up like crazy. Because if we do assume David is recruiting the of scum wants to take the other one out as the game is done.

I've got a bunch of samples to process today, so I'm not going to be able to spend the time on here that I'd like, but I do at least want to get some thoughts out before I eat something.

It's a given that I'm in POE. It doesn't make a lot of sense from a game balance perspective that there's so little in the way of protective roles, but no one else is able to validate my night actions, so that's more of a theory argument than anything else. I get that. I also get that Pie's in POE along with me almost by default. We have no information on his night actions, either. I think he's largely behaved in a way that makes sense for a town player with that role this game, especially given that Yakuza flip, but as I mentioned last DP, I would have expected him to be a little guarded about giving up his role given that it effectively makes his Martyr useless to claim it. I acknowledge that that's WIFOM, doesn't mean I can ignore it entirely. It's also interesting that he'd point out the Yakuza Casey and I failed to use in a previous game as scum (seriously, a third time with the two of us as a scum team together would be bonkers, but it was insane that we were together in back-to-back games), when a Martyr designed very much like this appeared in Pie's own Indian Politicians game a while back (he gave me the role).

And while we're the obvious ones, I can't remove Mikal, either. The Developer role stands out to me as more than a bit odd, his first role being a Motivator can't be confirmed and seems like a choice aimed at avoiding suspicion, and his decision to use the Follower on Wryly stands out as odd. Why choose to Follow Wryly when she was already a pretty strong townread last DP? Wryly confirmed the visit, so we can at least rule out an RB, but there's nothing confirming what he used on her. I see no reason to remove him from POE yet.

As for Wryly and David, I just don't see either of them being scum. There may be some world where Wryly uses her role to confirm Mikal, but I don't buy her as a recruitment target at all for reasons I've already mentioned (I just don't see scum recruiting her without knowing her role), and I don't see her as the original scum Tracker tying herself this closely to Mikal. She'd be much more likely to use her role to sus someone this DP. I could see reason to reconsider that if Mikal flipped scum, but without that information, everything about her including her behavior over the last two DPs just reads as town. I can't see David putting himself in a 1v1 situation with Thoth off the bat, either. There's some possibility that he was recruited, certainly more plausible than Wryly with that claim already on the table, but I think the fact that he's already brought up the whole "lynch me next DP and I'll use my role to kill Pie" strategy makes me townread him all the more. He's just too willing to be put on the chopping block.

Alright, low on blood sugar, will revisit this after lunch.

so again it’s likely you or wf and this 2v1 has red flags going up like crazy. Because if we do assume David is recruiting the of scum wants to take the other one out as the game is done.

which is why the only town play would be to turbo lynch me tomorrow

Another thing that sticks out to me is just how behaviorally different white flame is compared to the last two games. He’s done far less game solving like keeping track of claims.

FYI I am informing that I intend to vote whiteflame

its this idea of let’s pick him first and solve and how hard it’s being sold. It bleeds like both of you are scum

The POE, as Ive independently said is simple for the reasons I described. Whiteflame has to be the OG scum based on an evaluation of everyone’s behavior and roles

which is why the only town play would be to turbo lynch me tomorrow 

Yes, which is what the plan has been the entire time. I created that plan. We identify the OG scum cause speculating over who was converted is useless. If you’re a converted scum, then we are forced to lynch you last. Best case for us you’re scum and we win, worst case you’re town and get the shot to take out scum. It’s that simple really

Yes, which is what the plan has been the entire time. I created that plan. We identify the OG scum cause speculating over who was converted is useless. If you’re a converted scum, then we are forced to lynch you last. Best case for us you’re scum and we win, worst case you’re town and get the hot to take out scum. It’s that simple really 

Exactly. There are only two possible teams so as long as we hit one tonight town is guarantee to win.

Thoughts?

This is not true at all. I get what you are trying to say but it’s making a bunch of assumptions. One of which is that you aren’t scum

Why would an OG scum Kohai CC a townie and full claim out of the blue?

There is zero reason to do that.

im going to entertain this and just accept I may be over thinking.

if wf is og

who is the recruit.

I'll be posting my reads on everyone later. For now I'm brooding on why Vader was lynched instead of me. I can think of only a few reasons.

They wanted to gin up suspicion around why I was still alive

They wanted to keep the least experienced player in the game

They wanted to exploit my tracking somehow to farm town cred

Why would an OG scum Kohai CC a townie and full claim out of the blue?

There is zero reason to do that.

I tracked Kohai NP1 and he visited no one. Very much doubt he's the OG. Recruit or townie.

The POE of who could be OG scum is exactly Whiteflame.

Let’s say you think I’m the OG scum. I soft claimed Martyr in DP1 why? To avoid being interfered with? Protected?

Let’s say I’m the OG scum who has an active role. Why would I say no to Mikal supposedly motivating me? Let’s say I’m an OG scum that has a passive role. That sounds super weak with a Yakuza to begin with.

If I was OG scum, why advocate and literally coordinate a mass claim and risk being caught vs getting individual claims to minimize CC risk?