Suikoden Mafia DP1

There is 2 possible splits

a world where tir + 2 is scum

or scum is odessa flik and victor

leaning toward the latter. Or like odessa+1 and can recruit etc

If they can recruit. It’s kinda busted to have 3 so thinking back at that

it’s prob

2 people + recruiting

I don’t think it’s 1 plus recruit so the game ends if we get a lucky kill dp1

the most likely scum characters are

odessa

flik

victor

tir

there is a world where tir is town. If I’m a betting man I think Odessa is the big bad

Heavily leaning toward a town max and town David right now

Say there was a town/scum/TP split, what could TP be

I’m reading through stuff again to make sure I’m not missing anything. I don’t think there would be a tp. Nothing makes sense or is prevalent in my mind. Think it’s scarlet vs liberation

Cus was curious there are some very obscure things but none of it makes sense with the recruit outside of the Toran liberation army.

Best working theory based on available data, but I'm not eliminating the possibility of a TP.

First off,

Unvote

because my vote on Magic was an obvious joke.

That aside. The more I think about Mikal's actions so far, the more I see him as either behaviorally scumlocked or well-intentioned but misguided town. If I had played more games with him, I would probably be better equipped to choose which.

Mikal, your claim to lore godhood seems legitimate, so, if you are town, then whatever you piece together from the information you get out might help us, but are you presumptuous enough to think that this is worth the risk of enabling anti-claim? All the lore knowledge in the world will not equip you to come close to solving the game, if only because determining what is going on behind the scenes in someone else's game is a matter of modpsyche rather than just inferences that seem sensible to you, and the more information you guess at, the more variables you add to your equation and the more likely you are wrong about something crucial. That is before factoring in that Rex said in the OP, "Mafia are provided with some information on fake claims", so scum could likely deploy fake-claims that fit between the inevitable gaps in your analysis.

By the way, "Mafia are provided...", should preclude cult since I very much doubt that a 13-player game would have both. My guess is that there are 2 scum with a recruiter or 3 with a Yakuza. (Is there an agreed-upon name for a role which recruits someone but, unlike a Yakuza, does not suicide to do so?)

That is scumready enough, but Rex said in the OP, "revealing information about your character will allow scum to use their roles to much greater effect." That much greater effect would be that mucher greaterer in Mikal's lore-heavy hands, so, if he were scum, how eager would he be to persuade us that Rex's warning is less dire than it seems?

As a soft claim. I’d like the pre lock to be

im from scarlet moon

I’m from the toran liberation

I exist outside of those.

this will be useful later I would imagine.

(Post #16) This sounds innocuous, but, if the theme split turns out to be something other than Empire = Town / Toran = Scum, or at least some more complicated variant of it, then scum-Mikal could feasibly infer someone's character from this soft-claim, and do note that a hypothetical scum Mikal in a theme split other than Empire / Toran would know that is not the split.

Skep said there is no anti claim. So outside of fake claims. I will sniff bullshit out very fast. I’m a lore god at this game so there is value in character claims at some point especially with no anti claim. We should minimize that until needed as some characters will very likely be pretty fucking obvious roles.

(Post #19) "No anti-claim", no, he said almost the opposite. Notwithstanding that, if some characters' roles were, "pretty fucking obvious", to you, then you would want character claims that much more if anti-claim has frequency limits, e.g., 1x per night.

The ones I largely expect to be in game are kasim, Sonya, Kwanda, milich and teo

(Post #31) Why not Georg? Not a rhetorical question or attempt to pressure you.

character claiming won’t matter

(Post #56) This sounds oddly confident given that which character you are is most definitely information about your character.

I am not willing to vote Mikal yet, but I will do so eagerly if I get more evidence of him being scum.

No, I'm not playing your soft-claim game either.

I know nothing about this game. I was neck deep in Legend of Dragoon around that time I think. I'd like to take this time to say I'm a total scum noob and anyone who recruits me is shooting themselves in the foot fuck off don't pick me bitch I will cut you

(Post #38) I was neck deep in my mother's womb.

If they can recruit. It’s kinda busted to have 3 so thinking back at that

it’s prob

2 people + recruiting

I don’t think it’s 1 plus recruit so the game ends if we get a lucky kill dp1

Cults are kind of busted in general. You saw how crazy chaotic my game got when people thought there was a yakuza. I doubt there is an everynight recruiter, its either 1 or 2 shot max. Either 1 cult with 2 recruits, or 2 with one, like you said. ! cult with two recruits is swingy but strong. But keep in mind a lot of these town locks you are placing publicly could backfire if we know there is a recruit role, because those are generally going to be the people mafia would target first. So we have to be careful with public proclaimations like that. Kind of like how you publicly confirming me as town last game made me the prime night kill.. Thanks alot for that btw lol

Re: Post #70 - I missed the reason you gave for why Georg was not in that list. Sorry.

I was neck deep in my mother's womb.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExYmx6OGR1aXp5ejczbW9oaWR1bXpsdjlhcHhqaDNmb25mdXk1a2g2cyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/xUPJPvsDldEA0zRntm/giphy.gif

That aside. The more I think about Mikal's actions so far, the more I see him as either behaviorally scumlocked or well-intentioned but misguided town. If I had played more games with him, I would probably be better equipped to choose which.

I have a hard time seeing scum mikal just openly disclosing his thoughts on the theme split like that. He could be scum trying to throw us off, sure, but since he guessed the split in like post 11 multiple people have confirmed being in a similar category. His only motivation for doing that would be for town cred I suppose, and since this game has recruit mechanics I guess he could be doing that knowing that giving the theme split doesn't matter, but still feels like a bit of a stretch to me.

How Many Times Do We Have To Teach You This Lesson Old Man?

I have a hard time seeing scum mikal just openly disclosing his thoughts on the theme split like that.

If Mikal is scum and the theme split is actually Empire = Town / Toran = Scum, he surely guessed the split quickly even if Rex did not tell him, and he also would have known that this split is obvious enough that we probably would have figured it out without guidance from a lore god, so why not disclose it? If Mikal is scum and the split is different, then we are entering the zone of blind speculation, where I prefer to keep my extremities within the vehicle at all times, especially when I know jack shit about Suikoden beyond what I've read in this thread, but I would bet said extremities that there could be a metric fuckton of obscure splits in which scum-Mikal could fake-claim the obvious split and spin it to self-townlock and bait claims. Frankly, and I don't mean to insult Rex if the split is simply Empire / Toran, I would be miffed at it being so simple, but I would wonder if he intentionally left us the opportunity to overthink it.

He could be scum trying to throw us off, sure, but since he guessed the split in like post 11 multiple people have confirmed being in a similar category. His only motivation for doing that would be for town cred I suppose, and since this game has recruit mechanics I guess he could be doing that knowing that giving the theme split doesn't matter, but still feels like a bit of a stretch to me.

A hypothetical Airmax scummated with Mikal would be suicidal to claim that justification if the split were not Empire / Toran, which nearly proves that the split is Empire / Toran or that Mikal is town, possibly both. With Mikal, Kohai, Airmax, Wryly, and possibly Magic claiming Imperial characters, it is effectively public knowledge that there is at least one Imperial townie because four scum in a 13-player game is unthinkable. Five is right out. I'm thinking that the split is Empire / Toran with some additional layer that we will have to figure out as the veils are parted. I say 'we' because, if Mikal is town, scum are not letting him see another day.

Mikal said something interesting that I just now picked up on after browsing that Gensopedia that Magic linked. I'll stay quiet lest scum pick it up and it is somehow useful for them. Just thought I should leave a note here.

the most likely scum characters are

odessa 

flik 

victor 

tir 

Based on my role PM I’m almost certain Tir is town. That said I don’t want to focus too much on characters and flavor as much as behavior and night action results.

To be clear I am not Tir. However given the wording of my PM and that Tir is mentioned by name, Tir is probably town

no he almost flat said character claiming is not an anti claim. He’s directly referring to roles. If you claim cop, they may a role thag fuck with it. If you have a visiting role, they may have a role that can fuck with it etc. he doesnt like character anti claims like David did and he said he balances it with roles.

I am simply saying character claiming is not detrimental other than some characters likely have roles that are easy to guess based on their character. It’s an rpg so if there is a healer (doctor) etc.

I don’t think it’s as simple as you think

just because it’s pretty obvious the rebellion is scum doesn’t mean it’s easy. There is a recruit mechanic which just flips the game on its head.

actually I did just come up with one possible tp who would make sense with a recruit rule. But it’s a stretch to think it’s that over toran recruiting

Plus a tp being Able to do that doesn’t mesh with the you can’t recruit them mech

maxs pm also 100 percent scum locks toran and I have a feeling the game is a snap shot of the game at the time of the game starting. I am not going to elaborate until I confirm but I would be dammed if it’s not toran and they can’t recruit.

I don’t think it’s as simple as you think 

just because it’s pretty obvious the rebellion is scum doesn’t mean it’s easy. There is a recruit mechanic which just flips the game on its head.

basically this ^ DP 1 is going to be the only time any sort of theme analysis could prove useful. So if we wanted to mass character claim or something that’s about the only real use I could see to discussing theme this day phase because dp2 and onward it pretty much goes out the window. Also we are still operating on theories about what the theme split is so while you may have happened to guess the theme split first try, chances are probably greater there is something we don’t know about or something more to the theme unless you think ref made a them split relatively easy to figure out.

I'm going to drop a few more softs. The following characters are listed by name in my PM. I may or may not be one of these characters:

1. Teo McDohl
2. Emperor Barbarossa
3. General Sonya Shulen
4. Tir
5. Ted

All of hese are probably town based on the wording of my pm

I was going to read everything, but I got up to Airmax's SOP claim. Hes town. Mikal is also probably town.

I don't think I ever seen Mikal this excited, but it does seem like Town behavior for him and hes definitely being proactive. I could see an argument that he was scum trying to mislead town with the whole recruitment angle, but Airmax confirmed it, so we have that to look forward to. Additionally, I think Mikal might be on to something with his proposed theme spilt and again Airmax seems to have provided evidence.

I know a lot more than what I’m saying but I don’t want to say it as it will tell mafia how to navigate the game.

based on maxs pm and my pm

I def think I’m right in my earlier assumption but there is intricacies that scum prob won’t pick up on unless they have played the game.

max is either a lock or it’s a fake claim

I do think theme will play an important part. There is very few scarlet empire choices. Less than 9 that make sense and then it will be odd claims. So depending on how many fake claims they have. Theme can absolutely isolate the og scum. It won’t isolate the recruit. But there is very likely a hidden aspect that recruit that mafia don’t even know and it’s glaring obvious if you beat the game

I’d agree that airmax and Mikal are safe town reads for now. Mikal i think would be excited to play either way.but id expect a different strategy from him as scum then openly theorizing about the theme. Anyways I am going to crash soon I’ll check in later tonight and see what’s up.

max is either a lock or it’s a fake claim

I agree. This is probably a lock. I don’t see a world where w!max claims out of the gate like that.