Suikoden Mafia DP2

Initial read is this is the fake claim and his fake claim was poisoner and he just flavored in the healing party.

Some thoughts to start the day that I spent the last half an hour or so writing. Then I refreshed the thread, saw where discussion had gone, and felt the need to get that bit about Wylted out

When I said in DP1 (post #544) that Mikal needed to be on the block in DP2 unless we had solid mechanical evidence that he is town, I had a scenario in mind for NP1 in which my role would prove Mikal town beyond a reasonable doubt. This scenario happened, and I consider him cleared unless and until something absolutely scumlocks him. My sphygmomanometer thanks me. However, since I can't prove my result and don't want to claim my ability because good reasons, for town's sake I would still like indepedent corroboration of Mikal being clear, and I specified mechanical evidence yesterday in hopes that someone else would try to get some.

If Mikal is town, which I am almost certain he is, the safe option for scum last night was killing him. I have proof that scum killed him. With one death overnight and recruiting likely requiring mafia to waive their night-kill, thankfully, Mikal probably was not recruited. However, since Shining was an unknown quantity and probably winning King of the Hill on most people's scum piles, he makes a strange target. Shining was presumably Janitored, so scum can now fake-claim the role they scrubbed, on top of whatever fake-claim(s) Rex might have given them. Call that a No Shit Analysis if you want, but we should keep it in mind. This should also put the final nail in the coffin of the cult theory, on the off chance anyone was still thinking that.

The only characters mentioned by name in role flips, aside from the characters themselves, are Emperor Barbarossa and Mathiu in Magic's flip, and the way they are mentioned makes me think they are probably both in here. Aside from Barbarossa being the ultimate Scarlet-lock, I would like Mikal's thoughts about what their presence implies about the town/scum split. I would also like Mikal's thoughts on what an ability being called a True Rune could mean. Obviously, if Mikal thinks this information should kept secret, then I would rather he keeps his thoughts to himself.

If you're saying he could only have done so with the NK then I assume you interfered with his role somehow?

proof that scum killed Shining* not Mikal

Can you ask those questions differently and so I can process it differently and I will answer

If you're saying he could only have done so with the NK then I assume you interfered with his role somehow?

Reasonable assumption. I don't want to reveal how I got this information. If scum know my ability, (1) I will be at least a medium-high-priority kill target depending on how things shake out and (2) they can probably play around it.

I think Thoth or wylted are scum and I’m heavily thinking Wylted

The healing part of his character makes no sense at all.

I'm stumped as to what role you could have had that allowed you to ascertain 1) that wylted did not kill Shining and 2) that Mikal is innocent, all in one NP.

Could a more experienced player weigh in on that?

Can you ask those questions differently and so I can process it differently and I will answer

Mathiu and Barbarossa are mentioned by name in Magic's role flip, which makes me think they are in this game. What alignments do you think they are? (Barbarossa is obviously town unless I completely misunderstand the lore.) If Mathiu is in here, then does knowing whether he is town or scum change who else could be town or scum?

Again, please keep this info to yourself if you think you should.

It was a different character entirely who created the antidote, yes, and I would've assumed Rex would make that character the doc, but I'm not eliminating the possibility Rex took some liberties with characters and role.

Idk wtf to think.

Wylted says he poisoned Shining, whose name he temporarily forgot, and coincidentally Shining was targeted for the NK, but Thoth says wylted "did not kill Shining" unless it was via NK, which doesn't make much sense. That's the only way wylted could have killed Shining, correct? The poison doesn't kill immediately, it, well, poisons.

Simultaneously Thoth says he knows Mikal is innocent which doesn't make much sense to me if Thoth targeted wylted somehow.

I'm stumped as to what role you could have had that allowed you to ascertain 1) that wylted did not kill Shining and 2) that Mikal is innocent, all in one NP.

That's exactly why I don't want to reveal. Experienced scum might miss it too.

All I can think is maybe Thoth has an information role that clears Mikal and wylted

I'm stumped as to what role you could have had that allowed you to ascertain 1) that wylted did not kill Shining and 2) that Mikal is innocent, all in one NP.

Could a more experienced player weigh in on that?

I have no idea. It’s especially weird since he’s saying he knows WyIted didn’t kill Shining… with his role, which means he could have killed him with the NK, but somehow Thoth can’t rule that out. Maybe some redirection mechanic?

I don’t think so at all. That’s just factually not accurate in the game at all

its inconsistent as shit

If you think it's best not to reveal, don't. I'd rather be ignorant alongside scum than informed alongside scum

Would the poisoning have been announced publicly? That’s usually how it works.

I don’t think so at all. That’s just factually not accurate in the game at all

its inconsistent as shit

It's definitely questionable, and honestly it's not something I would expect Rex to do if he's as much of a Suikoden lorefan as you

If mathias is in the game he’s scum lock

there are two scenarios

if tir is scum, Mathias can be in the game and on the scum team

if tir is town. Mathias is prob not in the game at all

i think it’s the former. I think Wyited is tir

Mathias the Suikoden V character?

Im Prob speling it wrong. Mathius or however it’s spelled

Odesss brother

anyway I’m going to air this out.

wylted is claiming milich

milich does not cure poison. He is a hard town character in this theme. He poisons people as they visit his castle. One arch of the game requires healing that posion and it’s by doctor Liukan. I don’t think skep fucks this up and writes this into an actual character

they we’re prob either given milich and they came up with the claim or for whatever reason he’s saying he heals I’ll die on the hill skep did not make him a healer.

Oh and barbosa is a town lock and prob has a true rune. I believe it’s his sword and it’s the sovereign true rune.

im not going to say how I know but I’m pretty sure I know who this is

Kohai was pretty insistent that Tir is town, though that doesn't match up with the assumed theme split too well, or the very Soul Eater-like manner in which Shining was NK'd.

I could see wylted carrying out the NK and then making up this poisoning story to cover his visit, but it seems riskier than just NKing and hoping no one tracked him. Draws more attention.

I can't account for the inconsistency in his character and ability and it does seem sus.

Impossible for me to analyze Thoth's info with such vagueness surrounding it, but regardless, all it means is wylted didn't use any power role on Shining. NK is still possible.

What was your PM's justification for the healing part of your power

This is a good question

Yea it’s making me second guess David

janitor could be a lot of people. The vanishing like he never existed is very consistent with soul eater

so mathiu could be in the game. Really a lot of people could be scum if tir started scum

That actually looks worse for Wyited with the 1x

if wylted is scum he’s using their fake claim.

You think mafia got "poisoner" as a fake claim?