K-Pop Demon Hunters Mafia - DP2

At risk of more over-defensiveness, if y'all are going to push me for a claim, please remember that I tend not to be awake and active until at least close to noon Central time.

Your insults don't phase me douche.

That was literally the opposite of an insult.

And people who are more likely to analyze the theme and focus on behavior are like... maybe pie only.

I'm not likely to analyze the theme? Do you remember in Suikoden when we were scummates and I asked questions targeted at sussing out who I could recruit, since I bought Mikal's BS that I couldn't figure out recruitment targets myself unless I had played the game?

For one, I don't really buy this whole Voodoo Lady test from Thoth.

Wait, you didn't catch it either?

If we started with 5 town and 2 scum, the game would have ended day 1 if we hit the non-Rex scum. I think this is solid heuristic evidence for 4 town, 2 scum, and a third-party, in which case the remaining scum might not be super-powerful to counteract Rex's Doomed.

Then again its thoth. He tends to post every little thought that enters his head which I tend to read as TMI and scummy

I like to think that my thoughts are so good that it would be stealing you deprive you of them. That aside, does TMI mean that you seem to know more than a townie should, that you are sharing things that could help scum, or both?

to* deprive you of them

It's a scientific fact that pointing out someone else's typo causes you to immediately make one. I guess this also applies to saying that your posts are good.

Your insults don't phase me douche.

That was literally the opposite of an insult.

Only under the assumption I am scum, which I am not, so it definitely is.

I'm not likely to analyze the theme?

You are and thats literally why you are in the scum pool. smh

I like to think that my thoughts are so good that it would be stealing you deprive you of them. That aside, does TMI mean that you seem to know more than a townie should, that you are sharing things that could help scum, or both?

Oversharing in general thinking it will make you look smart and farm you town cred when it actually might hint that you know things you should know and are coming to conclusions about things you wouldn't otherwise know; IE the main reason pie is scum reading you.

Only under the assumption I am scum, which I am not, so it definitely is.

Nani? I said that not figuring out what Kohai softed was an uncharacteristically bad oversight, which is saying that I think you usually pick up on things like that.

Oversharing in general thinking it will make you look smart and farm you town cred

Generally speaking, if someone has an idea about what's going on in the game, then sharing that idea is probably good because it can spark discussion and maybe lead to other people figuring out things that nobody would have figured out otherwise. If I think that the reasons to keep a thought to myself outweigh the reasons to share it, then I do not share it.

Generally speaking, if someone has an idea about what's going on in the game, then sharing that idea is probably good because it can spark discussion and maybe lead to other people figuring out things that nobody would have figured out otherwise. If I think that the reasons to keep a thought to myself outweigh the reasons to share it, then I do not share it.

I am not saying not to do that, just trying to interpret whether its actual town thought sharing or mafia pretending to guess mechanics they already know about, which is something scum do frequently.

I do understand how my speculations this game could come off as revealing things a townie should not know, especially given that I have done that before as scum, but this time I am town because I am town because I said I am town because I am definitely town.

One more thing before I get off of here for the night and try to sleep. I will gladly claim my character tomorrow if people want me to, but I'm not claiming my role unless y'all are totally willing to hold me over the lynch barrel for it.

Wait, you didn't catch it either?

Nah man. It's been a while and that was the only time I'd even seen that role.

If we started with 5 town and 2 scum, the game would have ended day 1 if we hit the non-Rex scum. I think this is solid heuristic evidence for 4 town, 2 scum, and a third-party, in which case the remaining scum might not be super-powerful to counteract Rex's Doomed.

It's not impossible, but I can't say that the TP is obvious here, especially given that scum were given a full fake claim, which Rex obviously wouldn't have used. Beyond that, whatever role a TP would play in this game, it wouldn't prevent the game over at the end of DP1 if there are two scum and we lynched the other one. All it would potentially change is who won as a result.

One more thing before I get off of here for the night and try to sleep. I will gladly claim my character tomorrow if people want me to, but I'm not claiming my role unless y'all are totally willing to hold me over the lynch barrel for it.

At this point, one of the following is true:

A) There are 3 members of Huntr/x in this game and they are town.

B) There are 3 members of Huntr/x in this game and one of them is scum.

C) There are 2 members of Huntr/x in this game and the third is a scum fake claim.

D) There is 1 member of Huntr/x in this game and the other two are TP and scum fake claims.

I've said already why I don't believe B) to be true (I think the second scum is almost certainly Gwi-Ma), and I'm going to rule out D) unless we get some indication that there's a TP in this game (which would strike me as pretty unbalanced even with the Doomed role for Rex, which seemed to be there to balance the 5-2 split - maybe a slight overcorrection, but one that I don't think the TP solves).

That being said, I don't think there's much reason to believe the fake claim is a member of Huntr/x over just being another substantial character from the plot, which Luna has claimed and I'm sure Pie is. As I said last DP, there aren't that many characters that were bound to be in this game and any of them make sense as a fake claim.

Going to be spending some of today reading through everyone's posts to see if I missed something behaviorally relevant, but as of now, my preference is not to seek your claim. I'd prefer either Pie or Luna's claim and we can go from there. Do you have a preference?

Given that there are only 4 of us who can talk this out and we need 3 to get a majority, we can't stay split like this. We have to come up with a plan.

As it stands, there's a pretty obvious split between how Pie and Luna are seeing the game and how Thoth and I are seeing it. Vader's only going to get one vote and he clearly hasn't cast it yet since Mharman said he'd let us know when it's posted, even if we won't know what it is.

We need to come to an agreement about how to proceed. I'm fine with getting Thoth's fullclaim (I understand the hesitancy to give your role, but I don't think we can hold back on that at this point) if that comes with one of yours. I'm good with making a decision at that point. Thoth can decide whose claim he wants to make this as balanced of an exchange as we can manage. How does that sound?

Almost 24 hours left

25 rn

If I full-claim and one of Pie and Luna does, what order should we go in? Maybe we should agree in advance to both post our full-claims at a set time.

When I asked whiteflame if his PM mentioned any other characters by name and said that I thought one of the main girls was more likely to be the fake-claim than the other two, that was because my PM says I am Girl A and my friend is Girl B. I was wondering if whiteflame’s role says he is Girl B and friends with Girl A.

If I full-claim and one of Pie and Luna does, what order should we go in? Maybe we should agree in advance to both post our full-claims at a set time.

I don’t think it matters a lot since, regardless of whether scum is between you and whichever of them claims, we’re either going to get two real claims or a real claim and a fake full claim given by Mharman. We can work it out anyway, but it shouldn’t make much of a difference.

When I asked whiteflame if his PM mentioned any other characters by name and said that I thought one of the main girls was more likely to be the fake-claim than the other two, that was because my PM says I am Girl A and my friend is Girl B. I was wondering if whiteflame’s role says he is Girl B and friends with Girl A.

I figured that might be the case. I’ll abstain from clarifying mine, as either way, it would give my character away.

Just claim dude. I’ll claim after. Don’t really care about it

We’re literally wasting our time with 24 hours left

Idrc if we have to lynch blind today, but we need to lynch to reduce POE on our terms.

I don’t have any full claim yet and we have enough time to get it, so I think we should be getting as much info as we can first.

That being said, if I had to pick blind of roles and with my suspicions of your, Thoth and Vader’s character claims, I’d probably lynch Luna. It’s not a strong difference, but there are a few things about the ways he’s tried to narrow POE that set me on edge.

Explain

The basis he's been using for sussing players has been all over the place.

He started the DP off by saying he'd sus whoever claimed to be RB'd despite the fact that we know someone was (hard to imagine Rex wouldn't use it). I agreed with him that it would stand out, but the skepticism followed by immediately hedging in the same paragraph stood out to me.

He then moved onto saying that an RB'd player wouldn't receive a message, only to later state that he asked whether they'd receive a message specifically about being RB'd. Considering I confirmed with Mharman that an RB'd player with an active role would receive a "your action failed" message and that was with a pretty basic question, it seemed like an effort to catch someone out and follow up on his view that we should probably lynch anyone who claims to be RB'd.

He then immediately moved into the "it couldn't have been me because I don't have theme knowledge" argument where everyone else could have executed the lynch on Kohai (except him and Vader, the Silenced player) because we all picked up on not-so-subtle cues that he was Healer Han.

He's also hedged pretty hard every time he's mentioned sussing Thoth, most recently with his post about Thoth being "over-defensive" while also saying that this is his usual play. Just comes off as very non-committal.

I'm calling it a night soon, but I want to get out a few final thoughts.

For one, I don't really buy this whole Voodoo Lady test from Thoth. It's a weird one, but like so much of his behavior this DP, it doesn't come off as scummy to me. Luna's right that he tends to be very stream of consciousness with his posts, and posts like this just seem like more getting into his own head. I guess it's directed towards sussing Pie, but it's not doing a whole lot of work on that front. He could be scum and still doing this, but it reads as null to me.

It’s trying to do something. It was supposedly a reaction test, but he got nothing out of it, and I’m frankly baffled he thought something would come out of it. And it’s a weird one at that. It’s like he’s trying to do something to seem like he’s doing something.

If there's a good behavioral reason for pursuing Thoth that really separates him from his town behavior in the past, I'm receptive. I'm not really seeing anything distinctive from Luna, with that linked post only telling me that he thought something that clearly isn't happening would get him lynched if a flip demonstrated it. I can see how it's defensive, but it's especially weird to call this out if you know your partner's going to flip next DP. As for Pie's reasoning, I'd like to see him spell it out, but he seems to be banking a lot on a member of Huntr/x being a fake claim and I'm still not clear where that's coming from.

It’s more likely than not that 1/3 girls is scum because of REF’s flip. It’s a perfect fake claim for scum especially considering one of em was doomed to die. And if the theme is the bad guys, then giving a shitty character is a very weak fake claim. Like you’re instantly going to be sussed if your fake claim was the animals. It’s practically a death sentence. Giving 1/3 girls solidifies the scum’s place in town.

It's more plausible balance-wise with what we've learned from Rex's flip, but that's about it. He did softclaim more specifically than he had to early on, but that's about all I can think of that stands out.

And that in itself fits with my theory. Imagine for a second you had one of the girls as your fake claim. You want to soft claim early cause you’re likely not going to be sussed till MYLO/LYLO. Especially when he’s being hesitant to say anything about his role or character, what’s the urge to soft claim that he’s one of the 3 girls besides to farm towncred and avoid being sussed?

The whole hidden mechanic thing also screamed TMI. Also the fact that he’s adamant that there’s a TP in the game even though it would’ve been LYLO on DP1. He either is TP or somehow knows there’s a TP. There’s just so much that there’s no way you’re not scratching your head asking why’s he even bringing this up? It makes zero sense.

Plus, I assume that scum have a silencer or some ability like that. That + a doomed Roleblocker is weak af. We already have a confirmed doctor. There’s probably an investigative role. Topping that off with a shitty fake character claim? That sounds wayyy too weak, especially if the game would’ve ended by lynching REF’s partner.

It’s trying to do something. It was supposedly a reaction test, but he got nothing out of it, and I’m frankly baffled he thought something would come out of it. And it’s a weird one at that. It’s like he’s trying to do something to seem like he’s doing something.

It does come out of left field, no doubt. Can't say I read it as scummy, more way too in his own head.

It’s more likely than not that 1/3 girls is scum because of REF’s flip. It’s a perfect fake claim for scum especially considering one of em was doomed to die. And if the theme is the bad guys, then giving a shitty character is a very weak fake claim. Like you’re instantly going to be sussed if your fake claim was the animals. It’s practically a death sentence. Giving 1/3 girls solidifies the scum’s place in town.

I agree that it makes sense for the setup, but again, with a pool of named characters this small and the apparent split this obvious, pretty much every named character beyond the two animals is a given. Celine and Bobby being in this game, whether as actual characters or with one as a fake claim, is practically a given as were the three members of Huntr/x. All of them meet the threshold of providing a solidly town-looking character claim.

And that in itself fits with my theory. Imagine for a second you had one of the girls as your fake claim. You want to soft claim early cause you’re likely not going to be sussed till MYLO/LYLO. Especially when he’s being hesitant to say anything about his role or character, what’s the urge to soft claim that he’s one of the 3 girls besides to farm towncred and avoid being sussed?

That wouldn't be my MO, but I get your point. There's a WIFOM reason to softclaim that narrowly that early if you're scum, less obvious reason to do so if you're town. I'm considering it.

The whole hidden mechanic thing also screamed TMI. Also the fact that he’s adamant that there’s a TP in the game even though it would’ve been LYLO on DP1. He either is TP or somehow knows there’s a TP. There’s just so much that there’s no way you’re not scratching your head asking why’s he even bringing this up? It makes zero sense.

I agree that he's gotten into TMI on a couple of issues, though it's not unusual for him in any of these games to hypothesize about things he's nervous could be in the game mechanics. It's weird that this was his worry, it's just hard for me to scumread it. The TP thing falls into a similar camp. I don't buy it and I don't get why he keeps bringing it up, but getting stuck on weird theories isn't a first for him as either town or scum.

Plus, I assume that scum have a silencer or some ability like that. That + a doomed Roleblocker is weak af. We already have a confirmed doctor. There’s probably an investigative role. Topping that off with a shitty fake character claim? That sounds wayyy too weak, especially if the game would’ve ended by lynching REF’s partner.

We don't know what other roles the second scum has and, as I've already said, getting a fake claim that is one of the side characters is not a "shitty fake character claim," but I get your point on the balance feeling a bit off given the flip and what we currently know about the other scum's role.

It does come out of left field, no doubt. Can't say I read it as scummy, more way too in his own head.

At best it’s NAI, but by no means is it town.

I agree that it makes sense for the setup, but again, with a pool of named characters this small and the apparent split this obvious, pretty much every named character beyond the two animals is a given. Celine and Bobby being in this game, whether as actual characters or with one as a fake claim, is practically a given as were the three members of Huntr/x. All of them meet the threshold of providing a solidly town-looking character claim.

That’s fine, but the strongest claim is 1/3 girls for sure. Balance wise it makes sense to give that as a fake claim. And it’s far easier to give a fake role with that as well because they do so much in the show I presume.

That wouldn't be my MO, but I get your point. There's a WIFOM reason to softclaim that narrowly that early if you're scum, less obvious reason to do so if you're town. I'm considering it.

As scum he has nothing to lose and everything to gain from soft claiming that he’s one of the 3 girls.

I agree that he's gotten into TMI on a couple of issues, though it's not unusual for him in any of these games to hypothesize about things he's nervous could be in the game mechanics. It's weird that this was his worry, it's just hard for me to scumread it. The TP thing falls into a similar camp. I don't buy it and I don't get why he keeps bringing it up, but getting stuck on weird theories isn't a first for him as either town or scum.

But he’s coming off of a scum game where he just did that. But fine, at best it’s NAI.

We don't know what other roles the second scum has and, as I've already said, getting a fake claim that is one of the side characters is not a "shitty fake character claim," but I get your point on the balance feeling a bit off given the flip and what we currently know about the other scum's role.

Comparatively it’s definitely shittier. But we’re back to square one. At best Thoth’s behavior is NAI. At worst it’s scum. Holistically though, factoring in the eagerness to soft claiming is affiliation indicative. Combine that with everything else and you get a shift towards scum from NAI. By itself it may be NAI, but together it’s scummy. And even you admitted that his play here is just weird, but that doesn’t mean he’s town. It’s more likely he’s scum than he is town if we’re looking on a spectrum.

There’s a reason I’m fine with getting his claim. I haven’t said that he’s behaviorally town and he frankly isn’t. I’d prefer to get his and Luna’s claims, then make a decision from there.

Vader has cast his vote.

Vote Count

Thoth (?/3) - Pie, Vader?

Lunatic (?/3) - Whiteflame, Vader?

Whiteflame (?/3) - Vader?

Vader (?/3) - Vader?

Thoth (?/3) - Vader?

Time remaining:

16 hours and 18 minutes

In case Vader’s vote is on Luna, I don’t want any sudden decision resulting in a lynch without discussion.

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