Madoka Magica - Episode 2

Please answer my question

Yes when I was offered the hidden ability it was a picture of some rabbit looking thing

I'm working on a longer post of my thoughts, which I should be able to get up later this afternoon, but I'm trying to play catch-up in the interim. I'll address what was posted since last night and get back to going back through the last DP.

Going to log off for now but I have some thoughts about some of the info. I think there is a clear distinction between the two questions asked. One direction recruitment and one that was a hidden ability that we have 0 idea what it was for. 50% said yes and 50% said no but each to different questions that they were asked.

See, I'm not clear on this. Have we established that people got different messages? Because the only one I've heard that was distinct was Wryly's, and that's because she was unrecruitable. Kohai seems to be townreading you for some reason relating to the hidden ability in the message, but I don't think it's been clarified that he received a different message. If we need to clear this up, all my message said was that Kyubey was inviting me to make a contract, and that doing so would unlock a hidden ability. It did not directly state "you will be recruited to the scum team," though I figured that was a given.

I am actually a bit more sus of Pie this DP because of this bold “denial” claim. Realistically, there is no reason to deny a recruitment unless you know there isn’t going to be a NK in the night, and we had no way of guaranteeing that. Shit if I got offered to be recruited, and it would’ve AT THE MINIMUM by a 5v2 game, that’s just 2 DP’s to live on. Saying it’s scummy to deny that is IMO scummy to suggest because if you are solely thinking about winning a game, I think the optimal play is to accept. Not even to mention that THE ACTION failed.

I don't get this. I get that there could have been a perceived benefit to joining the scum team based on a numbers game, but Pie was scum just last game. Making a decision not to be scum this game and try to solve instead isn't outlandish, even if he thought he could win as scum.

Anyways, right now I don’t really have any strong reads. Just a lot of FoS with some slight town reads. I do think Pie bumps up the list a bit with this.

I also kinda town read Kohai. Pretty clear there meta is a bit TMI to lead the game and I think him boldly claiming an action the first posts makes me think he’s town. Unless you think he’s making a 200 IQ play as scum but I’m not so sure

I townread Kohai for different reasons, but I'll come back to that.

Right now I think my Poe is Pie, WF, Rex, and Mikal and that’s literally from POE that can simply change. In fact, if Mikal claims something then I will actually move Mikal into my town pile but I don’t want to force a claim onto him

I'd like to see this broken down a little more. Are these all potential OG scum or just potential scum at all? Because I can see different cases for each based on which category they slot into.

Am I not being mistaken that there was 2 different questions asked???? I could’ve sworn Rex said he got directly asked to be recruited versus mine was being asked for a hidden ability, if I am wrong I’ll admit I’m wrong but that’s not what I was under the impression of.

Nope I just read it and I got mixed up.

Either way, was still under the impression that it wasn’t a recruitment based role IMO.

Either way, I find it a bit weird that Pie first asked if it was alignment changing and Thoth quickly responded yes to it. I feel like that would be so bastard to reveal in this game that this contract is affiliation changing. It also unlocked an ability and didn’t disclose enough about the contract. Idk man something is not adding up

Good question

I would have to think about that more tonight when im home so I can’t give you an answer

I still don’t understand where you’re getting the whole “two different question” thing from.

Yeah, I don't get this either.

Hitomi isn’t a magical girl, and upon reading the wiki, was never offered a contract from Kyubey.

There is a defense here from a math standpoint: If we believe Kyubey and Walpergisnacht are in the game, along with all five magical girls, there still needs to be one more character, such as Hitomi. And that’s with a few assumptions in place, when there could be more. Point being, it is possible theme accuracy was sacrificed for game mechanics. Idk what role Hitomi could gain, though, and it’s not a guarantee.

Thst’s not what an emissary usually is. This isn’t Thoth’s original mafia community though. It’s plausible.

The other thing here: No warning to town about voting you last DP? Why?

Yeah, I flagged that, too. There are five magical girls in the series, so given an 8-player game with Kyuubey as known scum (there's a good chance Walpurgis is here, but I'll set that aside for now), there must be 2 characters who are not a magical girl. It's not discussed within the show, but I know there is artwork of Hitomi as a magical girl, so I mainly question whether she would be recruitable at all. Learning of the anti-claim mechanic is certainly a shift from the norm for his role. The decision to avoid mentioning the voting mechanic could have been a lot bigger of a problem if more people had voted him, though I think that was his attempt to gauge other peoples' behavior. Risky move.

This just seems way too specific, the info given, the anti claim, and the reveal of a hidden ability. It feels made up.

I think his behavior DP1 doesn't square with him being scum, particularly if he has this hidden ability. You would think as scum, he would have used the opportunity to reveal more claims. I could see some of this being used to take advantage of that play as a recruit in this DP, but what we've had apparently confirmed just seems like a lot to give Kyuubey on top of the mass recruit.

Good question

I would have to think about that more tonight when im home so I can’t give you an answer

Fair enough. I think we should be focused on the likely recruiter rather than who they recruited this DP.

From Kohai. Jumping at this is so utterly stupid that I think mafiosos should know not to. Again with the extreme ignorance

The tunneling and his jumping to conclusions like the ones you point out are part of what make me townread him, but they're hard to square against some of the choices he's made this DP.

Still don’t understand the whole Vader is lock town thing from Kohai

This part I don't get, either. Something Kohai should clarify.

It was a hidden ability. I did not know that voting for me had a chance of having character revealed

Ah, that makes sense. Glad we didn't test it more at least.

An emissary per the MU is usually a role that starts with information about a person who is town aligned. I don’t see any role that quite matches up with knowing slanting about the setup so I guess that’s why I was called an emissary.

Seems more like an "Informed" role than an Emissary. Also, just a little weird for the character since she's largely kept in the dark on the whole magical girl thing.

Fair. I do admit that I have been tunneling wf a bit hard.

Like I said last DP, I'd be surprised if people weren't sussing me.

We were ALL recruited. There was no need for Casey to decide anything at the beginning of the DP if the recruitment is universal. The decision was clearly made later on, as I accepted but it still failed and I got the failure message much later in the NP.

So you're theory is that if casey = recrutier that Thoth just submitted the night action for them? What type of sense does that make?

Please answer my question

Did you read my opening post? Your question is answered there

The decision to avoid mentioning the voting mechanic could have been a lot bigger of a problem if more people had voted him, though I think that was his attempt to gauge other peoples' behavior. Risky move.

apparently he didn’t know about the hidden mechanic, and it was revealed to him NP1

we can’t really the fact that he didn’t warn us against him… but it’s very convenient he learned of his hidden ability on the night

Did you read my opening post? Your question is answered there

I’m asking you to rephrase in your own words what happened last night.

Back to Kohai: Having no justification is crazy. Thoth can also be weird, but a bluff from Kohai is far from impossible.

Yeah, this stood out to me, too. It doesn't really fit the character in any way I can think of. I think he'd give at least some justification as scum, but it's hard to know what would even work in this instance.

why can’t scum just be lying about rejecting?

I don't think we should take anyone at their word on this, though I think everyone's reasoning for their choice has been intriguing.

#79 and #83- From Pie. I see the investigation method and the point about Kohai being made. This is something I will say I like from Pie.

He's come off as pretty solid so far. I mistook that last DP for being townie, so I'm hesitant to put much stock in it.

“busy with work” hmm. Feels like a dick move to say, but I swear you’re busier when scum

Can't say I'm reading into that too much. NAI to me.

Another thing… I have a theory that mafia may have learned my role the second my character was outed, as part of the anticlaim.

I think we can assume that having your character claim was a boon to scum given there was some anti-claim.

I'd also like the Vader/Mikal situation to be sorted out. Seems you've already tagged them, so I'll wait to see what comes of it.

apparently he didn’t know about the hidden mechanic, and it was revealed to him NP1

we can’t really the fact that he didn’t warn us against him… but it’s very convenient he learned of his hidden ability on the night

Yeah, that at least explains why he didn't out it, though I believe Thoth said something about how there would be mention of people having a hidden ability in their PMs. That's part of the reason I said early last DP that I didn't have any mention of one.

Am I not being mistaken that there was 2 different questions asked???? I could’ve sworn Rex said he got directly asked to be recruited versus mine was being asked for a hidden ability, if I am wrong I’ll admit I’m wrong but that’s not what I was under the impression of.

Mine said that I could 'become a magical girl'. I asked if it was alignment-changing and Thoth said yes. Then I accepted. It also mentioned one or more hidden abilities. Then later a got a message that said that it 'failed' and Kyubey, which is what I assume that weird rabbit Pokemon is, thanks me.

I don't get this. I get that there could have been a perceived benefit to joining the scum team based on a numbers game, but Pie was scum just last game. Making a decision not to be scum this game and try to solve instead isn't outlandish, even if he thought he could win as scum.

Pie also told me that he was hoping not to be scum in a recent game iirc, I would be shocked if he accepted.

I've been trawling through the last DP and this one looking for shifts in reads, as that's usually the biggest sign of a recruit, and can even point to the recruiter. I've developed a bit of theory: Casey/Mikal was the recruiter. They recruited Kohai.

Yeah... I really don't get Casey/Mikal as the recruiter. I'll detail more thoughts about this later, but I saw that you posted later about how the role could have been activated automatically. Setting aside that I think Casey would have to have said something, Mikal would have also had to step up and make some decisions upon coming in, otherwise Thoth would also have had to decide who got recruited. Seems like a lot of mod intervention.

Also, I just don't get going after the recruitment target this DP. We have two DPs worth of behavior to go off of for the recruiter, and just this one for the recruited.

Alright, taking a break here. I'll address any responses before I leave work and post a reads list before the end of the day.

Also, I just don't get going after the recruitment target this DP. We have two DPs worth of behavior to go off of for the recruiter, and just this one for the recruited.

It's because my theory mostly hinges on Kohai's behavior (as Casey/Mikal has been pretty inactive), and that Kohai himself is a spent force and keeping him around doesn't really have utility to town, while Mikal has some sort of role that he's hinted at. I'm not ruling out Kohai as recruiter, I just think his behavior is very off and that it fits more to a 'recruited' framework. Also, we have two days of behavior for the recruit as well - I've found recruits to be easier to spot because there are behavioral discrepancies. If they were scum-reading the recruiter, they will need to pivot. They may need to shift FOS onto the people that scum now want to eliminate. It can look like a lot of post hoc rationalization which clashes with their DP1 analysis. The recruiter has known that they are scum the whole game and so can play much more consistently.

I’m asking you to rephrase in your own words what happened last night.

I got a message stating that I had an opportunity to sign a contract and unlock a previously hidden ability. I initially accepted it not thinking twice however when I read up on the character I realized this was probably an alignment changing role. I attempted to back out and was told it was too late; however that point was moot because the contract failed to go through.

It's because my theory mostly hinges on Kohai's behavior (as Casey/Mikal has been pretty inactive), and that Kohai himself is a spent force and keeping him around doesn't really have utility to town

Sounds like you're after an easy ml

There's nothing about a hidden ability in my role card. If you need to accept Kyubey's offer to get one, I guess that makes sense.

Thoth won't tell me definitively for whatever reason, but my guess is I'm not recruitable because I'm a boy. The creepy rabbit only seems interested in luring young women into questionable life choices.

I guess I made a mistake by not asking to clarify then. I did not presume it would be an affiliation changing contract. This makes more sense then

I’d much rather prefer Mikal to at clarify the type of role he is. If he can at least do that then I will be satisfied and explain what I was trying to say

I also want to point this out I can be totally wrong. With this many affil changing actions, and then with the 50/50 of success and failure. I would not be shocked if scum potentially had NO killing roles. Because if it’s a 50/50, and 1/2 the people said yes to the recruit, the game is over. Extremely bastard but I am not ruling that out

I got a message stating that I had an opportunity to sign a contract and unlock a previously hidden ability. I initially accepted it not thinking twice however when I read up on the character I realized this was probably an alignment changing role. I attempted to back out and was told it was too late; however that point was moot because the contract failed to go through.

Didn't you say earlier that you rejected it? Did you lie? Why? It sounds like mechanically you accepted it.

Unvote

This contradicts your first post….