Madoka Magica - Episode 4

A random town person got an action last night. Since you’re not CC’ing unless pie CC’s then it’s obvious Vader is confirmed scum.

I'm not claiming I got the Role Cop, so no, I'm not CCing. Still waiting on Pie, though I suspect he didn't get it, either. I think Mharman got it and when scum killed him, Vader went for the claim.

Plausible.

I’ll wait to hear pie’s thoughts.

Also Rex could have also have switched to pie and he didn’t. So that doesn’t necessarily prove you town.

if you somehow knew she was a 3p survivor hammering her makes the most sense as you would need to waste a NK on her

Also Rex could have also have switched to pie and he didn’t. So that doesn’t necessarily prove you town.

True, though there wasn't a long window between the my vote and the vote before it (yours). I cast my vote four minutes after you. Is it possible he could've taken advantage of that short period? Sure, but he'd have to be sitting in front of his computer refreshing pretty regularly to do it.

if you somehow knew she was a 3p survivor hammering her makes the most sense as you would need to waste a NK on her

...except that Pie's flip would have instantly implicated her this DP. I get that you in particular were concerned over the existence of two 1X BPs, but that was not the common sentiment.

Final Vote Count

Wryly (4/4) | ILikePie5, Vader, RexFavilla, whiteflame

ILikePie5 (3/4) | Wryly, Mag1cman, Kohai

If pie is town then both scum were on the wryly wagon. This strongly points to scum knowing she has to be killed and was a priority over getting a mislynch

Alternatively: It could be pie and Rex. This is tin foil but this explains why scum wouldn’t hammer pie and also explains pie trying to get Vader lynched earlier in the day phase.

this game is driving me insane

If Vader is scum why didn’t he switch to pie

If Vader is scum why didn’t he switch to pie

Same response: 4 minutes. REF was at least on kind of close to the end of the DP, so it's more believable he'd squeeze in a hammer vote. Vader was absent for several hours after placing his vote.

Scenarios from most to least likely

1) It’s literally just Rex and whiteflame

2) It’s Vader and he is using the ability as a way to bus

3) It’s pie all along. He knew Vader was the target and trod to get him lynched. He knew his original role and was confident enough to counter claim.

Rex was online and voted #412. If you think Vader is scum then Why didn’ Rex vote Pie here? Even if he wasn’t around to change his vote there’s still a strong probability of a mislynch

Rex was online and voted #412. If you think Vader is scum then Why didn’ Rex vote Pie here? Even if he wasn’t around to change his vote there’s still a strong probability of a mislynch

My point is that, if either of them was going to have the opportunity to do it, it would have been Rex. He still only had that four minute window, but sure, if he'd been paying close attention, he could have gotten in there. It's still four minutes and entirely plausible that neither of them could have been aware of the opportunity before the door closed.

they both had ample opportunity even to be on the wagon and not necessarily to hammer.

Point is scum must have known lynching castin is higher priority than lynching pie unless pie is scum.

I’m just sticking with my gut: Rex and Whiteflame

Point is scum must have known lynching castin is higher priority than lynching pie unless pie is scum.

This is the part I’m trying to understand because we can go back and forth on the possibility of posting a change of vote in those four minutes, but I don’t get this.

Yes, the existence of a TP would have been a threat to scum. Coming into this DP, can you tell me who here aside from yourself was at all likely to look at Pie’s flip and townread Wryly? The confirmed 1X BP would have drawn a lot of sus instantly, so why would scum rush her elimination when they could get both Pie and Wryly in back-to-back DPs with ease?

Unvote

I want more time to discuss and prevent an early hammer

Damn, scum really hate Mharman

I think it’s a forgone conclusion that REF is scum at this point. So now the question is who is the recruit?

Alright here we go

I got the Rolecop last night and rolecopped Rex as mafia

he is Kyubey and he is an escape wolf

What does Escape Wolf do?

That’s what I’m confused about as well.

Also I redirected Kohai onto Pie. Since Pie is the BP if there was no NK in the night it would indicate Kohai is scum and I blocked the kill

Rex and WF gg ez

Fair enough.

Also I think the insta 1v1 between Kohai and Rex is pretty indicative of Kohai town, don't think scum would jump to that 1v1

If we lose we lose at this point, but I'm like 100% certain we won this game unless WF has some god ability

Unless the team is exactly REF/Kohai, Kohai has to be town here. Remember what Wryly said at the end of last DP.

The same list of 4 names was given to scum and TP with the knowledge that one of those names was a true town role. Kohai was the first one to claim one of those names, which makes no sense to do from an OG scum perspective. It only makes sense if he was the recruit and was recruited by REF.

A Kohai/REF scum team knows 100% that Wryly is the TP, so they obviously lynch Pie.

4-2-1 goes to 2-2-1. Here they lynch Wryly or ally with her.

Bottomline, Kohai has to be town here unless they’re just retarded.

Wonderful so that leaves Vader vs WF in a head to head.

I also don't have any redirects left. Realistically if we assume WF is the last scum he can't kill Pie, so he's either going to have to kill me or Kohai, which I think will likely be me. I was thinking about saving the redirect for next NP even when I got the ability, but we can at least get some form of an idea who scum is at this point

Unless Wryly was fucking with us, Kohai 100% dies tonight.

Though I should get some credit for having outted castin by asking her to clam. If I didn’t she would have flown under the radar this entire game. 

Bruh bffr, you just asked her if she had claimed or not. You didn’t ask her to claim

It was obvious at the end of the last DP that Rex was scum based on the info that Wryly provided, so I guess the TP gave him up. That also makes Kohai locktown since Wryly also said that one of the characters on that list was real, which at this point can only be him. Rex has pretty clearly given up defending himself, so he's going to be the given as a lynch this DP.

I think everyone agrees that REF is scum here.

As for the second scum, it comes down to Vader for me at this point. Claiming he used the Role Cop on Rex is pushing the bus pretty hard, but makes a lot of sense when it was already obvious that Rex was scum. He clearly came into this DP knowing that much, as did his partner. Scum killed Mharman, so they could just have eliminated the Role Cop target and Vader just claimed it to push my lynch next DP.

So you’re arguing that scum got lucky by killing Mharman who had the role copied (which they wouldn’t have known btw) and they just yoloed the Rolecop first thing without anyone saying anything?

Regarding the read on me, I'll point out that I could have won this game for scum just by choosing to lynch Pie instead of Wryly last DP. You guys put that up to me entirely to make the decision, and scum apparently shared the fake character claim list with Wryly so they would have known Wryly was lying about her character claim at minimum. All I would have to have done is hammer Pie and then Wryly would have been the auto-lynch when Pie's flip was confirmed this DP. It would be a baffling choice to give up my chance at an easy win.

Yes, I was thinking about this. This is my only source of hesitation at the moment

Yes, I was thinking about this. This is my only source of hesitation at the moment

Why didn’t ref vote for you?

So you’re arguing that scum got lucky by killing Mharman who had the role copied (which they wouldn’t have known btw) and they just yoloed the Rolecop first thing without anyone saying anything?

Basically, yes. Vader could've just YOLOed if the alternative was to crash and burn next DP. Kohai had already posted, so he could be reasonably sure he didn't receive it, and with Mharman dead, it meant he had a 1 in 3 chance of claiming he used it without a CC. It's risky, but it would give him significant towncred going into the final 3 next DP and he needed something to give him a leg up.

The problem is scum knew who their target was and not who necessarily got the role.

I'm calling it a night here. Rex is obviously the lynch this DP, so it's just a matter of how much we want to discuss this DP before moving onto the next. Will pick this discussion back up in the morning.

Vote Count

RexFavilla (1/3) | Vader

Kohai (1/3) | RexFavilla

Not voting: whiteflame, ILikePie5, Kohai

The problem is scum knew who their target was and not who necessarily got the role.

Yes, and they knew it was a numbers game. I recognize they took a big risk claiming that Vader received it, but they already had good reason to believe you hadn't (you would have announced it in one of those first few posts), so they only had to bank on a 1 in 3 chance. Wouldn't be the first time I've seen someone play the odds to get townread with a ballsy claim.

Now I'm really headed off.