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HCBM Mafia DP3

Started by Vader

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ISO #61 •••
--> @Magoroth

Will catch up later on tonight.


I think you intentionally didn’t kill Wryly because you’re Godfather and somehow figured out her claim (why would a Town be looking for investigative roles?) because it paints me as scum.


His argument is that since you claim Godfathers interfere with your results, you could not have read that there was 1 scum on Rex's wagon if either Kohai, whiteflame, or Mag1cman was a Godfather.

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ISO #62 •••
--> @Magoroth

lol I can smell the desperation


all that saying my solve is true, even with the admittance in #56 is mostly scum outside of you, and you vote me

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I still don’t know what to type!

ISO #63 •••

admittance in #56 that whiteflame is most likely scum outside you

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I still don’t know what to type!

ISO #64 •••

the reason i got miller/hated confused is because miller is a common sop to claim, and I wasn't paying that much attention to kohai


scum me is going to pay a lot more attention to the setup, I promise

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I still don’t know what to type!

ISO #65 •••

and pay a lot more attention to what others claim

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I still don’t know what to type!

ISO #66 •••

past teammates can attest

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I still don’t know what to type!

ISO #67 •••
--> @Wryly

I understand the argument.

But he could be Godfather Framer.

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ISO #68 •••

okay I suppose I should ask. if we Lynch Mag1cman today and he flips town are people going to Lynch me or are they going to Lynch Whiteflame

because it its me I’ll vote Whiteflame.

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ISO #69 •••

Catching up now.


Supa said I can enter the game to simp for Wryly.

She is beautiful.


Someone has been enjoying my wylted quotes.


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ISO #70 •••

As promised.


RemyBrown: Thank you black men. In 2024, the Starbucks left preferred bears to strange men. When they find out that some strange men are black and they ask if they would rather be with a bear or a strange black man, they don't want to come off as racist, so they pick the strange black man. So congratulations JAMMAL; you helped cure the crazy white liberal woman of her mental disease. #BlackPositivity. Jammal beats Jennifer.
Wylted-Lashwnda: Good, white-ass cave-beckies can't handle our men. They can't cook, they can't fight, they can't fuck. Flat-ass-havin, Campbell-soup-cream-of-mushroom-casserole-cookin, 'I can't believe he hit me'-ass bitches. Maybe if you used Lawry's ya wouldn'ta got ya ass whooped.
Swagnarok: Lashwnda is a beautiful, strong, independent black woman who don't need no man. I hope she manages to achieve #justice4tyrone
zedvictor4: It's going to take a 65 year old Caucasian Brit trained in the art of the English language, a while to come to terms with the Lashwnda concept. Though those lips sure is made for sucking juice.
Wylted-Lashwnda: Ain't you Welsh? I aint puttin these juicy lips anywhere near somethin that's been in a sheep pussy.

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ISO #71 •••

Finally have the time to catch up.

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ISO #72 •••

Very interesting play here from Mag1c, considering he was the only one who did not VTL Shining last game aside from Thoth, who is mechanically innocent.


Mag1c is also the only player Shining did not FOS. The two players Mag1c is now accusing were ones Shining opposed, particularly so Magoroth. Take a look at #96, #224, #284, #288, #291. In contrast, Shining largely supported Mag1c's arguments.


Mag1c's behavior toward Shining was also imo consistent with a mafioso whose scummate is in jeopardy of being lynched. He ran interference and tried to keep the field of suspicion as wide as possible by saying "there are no unpairings anymore", stalled on voting by doing a lot of research on people, pretended to sus Shining for this and that only to dismiss his conjecture, said oh yes definitely Shining was a bit sus but he would prefer to lynch Magoroth, etc.


DISCLAIMER:
Technically, I could be a redirector, and pulling some gambit where I redirected Wryly knowing she was cop and would investigate me. If you want to argue that, good luck. Because now I can only be *one specific role*, AND I decided to bring little miss "MOTHERFUCKER YES MAG1C IS SCUM" into the next DP with me.


I'm going to dismiss this. It was easy to guess I was the Cop, so I'm alive for a reason, and that reason is I had some utility to scum. My cop of Mag1c is instrumental to the argument he is making for his innocence, so he would definitely want me in DP3.


But the material point is that Mag1c can only be guilty if he's a Godfather, and according to Magoroth, there could not be a Godfather in his POE.


So we have three possibilities.


  1. Magoroth is scum, has sucked at flying under the scumdar all game, bussed Shining, and during DP2, Shining made a bid to get his own scummate dayvigged just as a ruse (high risk, low reward gambit).
  2. whiteflame is scum, FOS'd his own scummate for most of DP2, and finally bussed him -- and quite unnecessarily, too. With Thoth AWOL, Magoroth waffling about whether to vote Shining or Mag1c, and Mag1c intent on voting Magoroth, whiteflame could have easily prevented a Shining lynch by voting differently.
  3. Mag1c is scum, and mechanically, we're missing something that explains the data as they currently stand. There's a remote possibility he is a Godfather/Framer; he could also be a Redirector, as he himself allows; he could also have a setup I haven't even considered.

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ISO #73 •••
--> @Magoroth
Dunno about Bleeder.
Does it make sense with BG?


Not sure what would make the two problematic to have in a game together, though if any of the flips are suspect at this point because of the Tailor, it's the Bleeder. Oddly low number of protective roles this game, apparently, though maybe Rex's actual role was protective as well. If so, it's odd that Shining claimed RB.


I dunno why Kohai was killed last night though.


Yeah, I'm baffled by the choice. Figured scum would take out a target who was in the same pool of 3 (Wryly or Thoth) as Shining, since that wouldn't reduce POE.

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ISO #74 •••
--> @Mag1cman
Thoth and Wryly are town confirmed btw


Yeah, that's a given. Either they are scum with Magoroth or they aren't scum. Also, just can't see it happening behaviorally from their interactions with Shining last DP.


Remember my theory that there was a cop, hiding somewhere, that didn’t want to claim?

Called it, and I knew it was you.


Good thing she didn't end up claiming.


yes three investigatives is technically possible, but among Vader/SupaDudz's 8-10 player games, only two of them had three investigatves. Most had only two.


It's an odd balance to set with 3, particularly with a Sensor and a Cop in the mix.


I'm going to check out your big post separately, still going through the others.

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ISO #75 •••
--> @Wryly

Redirector is technically possible actually.

Not sure how common that role is around these parts.

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ISO #76 •••
--> @Wryly
I'm the Cop. NP1 copped Pie, he was innocent. NP2 copped Mag1c. Innocent. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a GF though, some people sure seemed certain we had another investigative


I get choosing both of them, but why Mag1c over me or Magoroth?


I figured if I was still alive today after that, it probably meant there was a Godfather because Godfathers want to be copped. In that way telegraphing my role a bit might actually keep me alive long enough to cop the non-Godfather. Alas.


The strategy makes sense. Getting the Tailor flip was still good, but it's just too bad he wasn't the GF.


I'm going to check out your big post as well, just spotted it.

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ISO #77 •••

I think Redirector/Cop/Sensor/Tracker/Ninja is somewhat balanced.

Especially considering the Hated role that Kohai had.

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ISO #78 •••
--> @whiteflame
I get choosing both of them, but why Mag1c over me or Magoroth?


You and Magoroth both VTL'd Shining when otherwise the DP could have resulted in a no-lynch without your votes.


I still almost copped Magoroth just to clear him. May have been a mistake not to.

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ISO #79 •••
--> @Mag1cman
The scum between the two of you (Magoroth and Whiteflame) can concede to save us all time, btw.


Can't say I've dismissed you as possible scum at this point.


POINT ONE: Thoth and Wryly are town confirmed. Magoroth is either lying about his results, or he is telling the truth. If he is lying, he is scum, and Thoth and Wryly are not. If he is telling the truth, Shining was the one scum from (Thoth, Shining, Wryly); therefore, Thoth and Wryly cannot be scum.


Correct, though if a Framer/Lawyer/GF can manipulate the Sensor's results, then it's possible for scum to be among Thoth and Wryly. I have behavioral reasons that they're implausible as well, but there would have to be some mechanical hijinks going on to place both scum in the same pool of Sensor results.


POINT TWO: I, Mag1c, am (almost, but realistically) town confirmed, for I cannot be a godfather (nor can Thoth or Wryly). If Magoroth is lying, he is scum, and I am not. If he is telling the truth, then I must be innocent- he said godfathers hinder his results (post #525 DP2). Since Wryly copped me innocent, I can only be mafia if I am a godfather. But then, Magoroth's results would've said 0 scum between (Kohai, Mag1c, Whiteflame). His results say there is 1, so in this case, Whiteflame would have to be the scum on Magoroth's sensor- not me.


It's a given that only one of you are scum. It is also a given that, if Magoroth is lying, he is scum. So that first line is a given. The second line is more problematic. We'd have to assume you're the GF and that no other shenanigans are at play, including a Redirector, which Vader has employed before in games. It could also be a Lawyer, since you could've used it on Shining NP1 and yourself NP2. I'll concede that you can't be the GF in the scenario where he's telling the truth, but that doesn't mean you're innocent, it just eliminates a possible scum role. You admit as much, and you admitted to knowing Wryly was the Cop. I don't think it's likely that you'd post this much about how you'd done it, so at least you have some behavioral cred there.


POINT THREE: Either Whiteflame is scum, or Magoroth is scum.
Given 1 and 2, We are down to two remaining. Whiteflame does not have any innocent result. Magoroth, however, could be a godfather. Magoroth's results are not useful to clear him of being godfather like they were for me, because he could just be making them up. I am comfortable asserting he is one- a cop indicates the presence of a godfather, plus he was the first one this whole game to bring up a godfather- at times asserting it was me. Of course, if you trust Magoroth that much, Whiteflame is your lynch.


I don't think 2 is a given, but I'll set that aside. At this point, Magoroth is either telling the truth about his role, or he has at least some means of affecting alignment investigative results, given that Vader is almost certain to have included those mechanics in a game with a Cop at minimum. Doesn't mean it's the GF, but his role could be the GF, while yours could not.

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ISO #80 •••
--> @Wryly
You and Magoroth both VTL'd Shining when otherwise the DP could have resulted in a no-lynch without your votes.

I still almost copped Magoroth just to clear him. May have been a mistake not to.


To be fair, we'd probably be in a similar situation regardless, questioning if your night action had been manipulated in some way. Like I said, I get the choice, and that makes more sense now.

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ISO #81 •••
--> @Magoroth

Sorry for all the fuck-you's EODP2 btw. I hadn't yet refreshed the page to see you'd put your vote back in, and posted still thinking you'd flaked at the clinch.

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ISO #82 •••
--> @Wryly
Very interesting play here from Mag1c, considering he was the only one who did not VTL Shining last game aside from Thoth, who is mechanically innocent.

Mag1c is also the only player Shining did not FOS. The two players Mag1c is now accusing were ones Shining opposed, particularly so Magoroth. Take a look at #96#224#284#288#291. In contrast, Shining largely supported Mag1c's arguments.

Mag1c's behavior toward Shining was also imo consistent with a mafioso whose scummate is in jeopardy of being lynched. He ran interference and tried to keep the field of suspicion as wide as possible by saying "there are no unpairings anymore", stalled on voting by doing a lot of research on people, pretended to sus Shining for this and that only to dismiss his conjecture, said oh yes definitely Shining was a bit sus but he would prefer to lynch Magoroth, etc.


I was just about to take a look back through Mag1c's behavior last DP to scope out his interactions with Shining. Seems you've saved me some time finding some of the details for that, though I'll still go back and scope it out after this.


I'm going to dismiss this. It was easy to guess I was the Cop, so I'm alive for a reason, and that reason is I had some utility to scum. My cop of Mag1c is instrumental to the argument he is making for his innocence, so he would definitely want me in DP3.

But the material point is that Mag1c can only be guilty if he's a Godfather, and according to Magoroth, there could not be a Godfather in his POE.


It's a valid argument that he can't be the GF, but that's about it. The disclaimer is basically just an extended point explaining why we shouldn't see alternatives as plausible because he wouldn't talk at length about the possibility of other roles being in the mix and wouldn't have kept you alive, which just aren't convincing reasons to dismiss his potentially being scum. Would hardly be a first for scum to talk about their actual role as a hypothetical, nor to leave an investigative alive with intent to use their result.


So we have three possibilities.

Magoroth is scum, has sucked at flying under the scumdar all game, bussed Shining, and during DP2, Shining made a bid to get his own scummate dayvigged just as a ruse (high risk, low reward gambit).


Most of this I get, it's part of the reason I've been townreading Magoroth for so long. The one caveat is the bid for the Dayvig. I wouldn't be surprised if scum saw through that ruse early and therefore didn't see a risk in it.


whiteflame is scum, FOS'd his own scummate for most of DP2, and finally bussed him -- and quite unnecessarily, too. With Thoth AWOL, Magoroth waffling about whether to vote Shining or Mag1c, and Mag1c intent on voting Magoroth, whiteflame could have easily prevented a Shining lynch by voting differently.


Letting the DP end in a NL would've just automatically brought us to MYLO with the NK, so yeah, this would've been an odd choice as his partner.


Mag1c is scum, and mechanically, we're missing something that explains the data as they currently stand. There's a remote possibility he is a Godfather/Framer; he could also be a Redirector, as he himself allows; he could also have a setup I haven't even considered.


I can't see a world in which Mag1c is the GF and it's on all the time. I've seen some even/odd night variants of GF, but I'd put that as a distant possibility. Lawyer or Redirector make more sense.

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ISO #83 •••

Alright, largely caught up. I'm going to dive back into DP2 before I call it a night, but taking a break for now.

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ISO #84 •••

I am going to Walmart to buy new headphones and will be on later tonight.


Vader and I had a failure to communicate that turned into what Bob Ross might have called a happy accident. I declared well before end-of-day yesterday that I was changing the lynch to Mag1c. He thought I meant I was only changing it if I were lynched. I know you would all probably be scumreading the ever-living shit out of me for failing to use my Governor veto after saying I would, and, in Mafia, unlike reality, a government official can be punished for failing to follow through on a promise. Thank you to Magoroth for clearing me.

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Forum signatures are bullshit. Nobody wants to waste their time and bandwidth reading something they have read 29,998,559,671,349 times before.

ISO #85 •••

I am not saying I think Mag1cman is absolutely clear, by the way, just that a possible scum lynch would have been a worse choice than a definite scum.


I need to ask Vader an important question and will report back. I applogize if it’s already been answered.

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Forum signatures are bullshit. Nobody wants to waste their time and bandwidth reading something they have read 29,998,559,671,349 times before.

ISO #86 •••

apologize*

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Forum signatures are bullshit. Nobody wants to waste their time and bandwidth reading something they have read 29,998,559,671,349 times before.

ISO #87 •••
okay I suppose I should ask. if we Lynch Mag1cman today and he flips town are people going to Lynch me or are they going to Lynch Whiteflame
because it its me I’ll vote Whiteflame.

"Yo if I mislynch Mag1c would yall let me mislynch Whiteflame too?"


come on now


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I still don’t know what to type!

ISO #88 •••
--> @Mag1cman

it should be pretty clear why I’m saying what I'm saying. I will not allow myself to be lynched lol.

I know I’m Town. Idk which one of you/Whiteflame is.

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ISO #89 •••
--> @Wryly
Very interesting play here from Mag1c, considering he was the only one who did not VTL Shining last game aside from Thoth, who is mechanically innocent.

Mag1c is also the only player Shining did not FOS. The two players Mag1c is now accusing were ones Shining opposed, particularly so Magoroth. Take a look at #96#224#284#288#291. In contrast, Shining largely supported Mag1c's arguments.

Mag1c's behavior toward Shining was also imo consistent with a mafioso whose scummate is in jeopardy of being lynched. He ran interference and tried to keep the field of suspicion as wide as possible by saying "there are no unpairings anymore", stalled on voting by doing a lot of research on people, pretended to sus Shining for this and that only to dismiss his conjecture, said oh yes definitely Shining was a bit sus but he would prefer to lynch Magoroth, etc.


Stalling on a lynch because I wanted to do something before the end of the DP got me sussed in Game Shows Mafia. I was town there too.


#885 - SL - Waiting to hammer on scum while claiming he might is suspicious. And since WyIted wanted to post notes, it’s possible they decided that notes from Mharman would look less suspect.

-Savant, Post #33 of DP2, Game Shows Mafia. This ended up snowballing into a mislynch of me on the final day phase.


As for Shining, a few posts where he agreed with me are nothing; I was very active and driving a lot of discussion throughout that DP. As for him townreading me, let's ask: Do you really expect scum to townread their teammate the whole game?


As a matter of fact, do you expect scum NOT to bus their teammate when they're going to be lynched? In this game, scum has an even greater incentive to bus a dying teammate, since Thoth was vocal about planning to use his governor... meaning that a teammate bussed for towncred could still be saved anyway. I really did feel more confident on Magoroth, and I stood on business.


And I'm not speculating a bus for no good reason. Game Shows Mafia DP4. I hard defend Banana, despite thinking her to be the second scummiest player in the game, because Mikal, the scummiest player in the game, was attacking her all game long. She gets lynched and flips scum. DP5. I let Mikal go at the very end, because I couldn't fathom the bus. I get mislynched; Mikal wins as scum. And that's just the main example in my mind.


I'm going to dismiss this. It was easy to guess I was the Cop, so I'm alive for a reason, and that reason is I had some utility to scum. My cop of Mag1c is instrumental to the argument he is making for his innocence, so he would definitely want me in DP3.

It was obvious that you were a cop to me. That cannot be established for everyone else. REMEMBER: I wouldn't have thought you were a cop had I townread Magoroth. I specifically searched for a third investigative (really a second one), because I really did not believe Magoroth's claim. The belief in a third investigative that you had would've been interesting, but alone it wouldn't have been enough for me to say you were investigative. For your obvious visit of him, I would have brushed it off as a protective visit; Whiteflame had not claimed at that time.


But the material point is that Mag1c can only be guilty if he's a Godfather, and according to Magoroth, there could not be a Godfather in his POE.

btw, I specifically wanted to hammer this point in because Magoroth spent a lot of time talking about a godfather last DP, at times accusing me of being the godfather. I took it as TMI.

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I still don’t know what to type!

ISO #90 •••

Well, unfortunately, I'm running out of steam and nowhere near done going back through the game. I'll be able to do this a lot more easily at work with my dual screens than I can windowing this shit at home anyway, and that will give me more time to dig back into the Game Shows game and see if it's consistent with what Mag1c is saying. I agree with him that scum have likely been bussing one another, that is a factor that I'm considering.


I promise at least one big analysis post tomorrow and more consistent activity, expecting a slow day.

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