HCBM Mafia DP3

Correct, though if a Framer/Lawyer/GF can manipulate the Sensor's results, then it's possible for scum to be among Thoth and Wryly. I have behavioral reasons that they're implausible as well, but there would have to be some mechanical hijinks going on to place both scum in the same pool of Sensor results.

Thoth and Wryly cannot be godfather for the same reason I can't be godfather, see my case again.

Framer is no-go because then he'd get two scum on the wagon, not one. You need framer plus godfather on the same slot somehwere, and that's very unlikely.

Lawyer I didn't consider when steelmanning against my case. I didn't think lawyer could self-target. I asked Vader, and annoyingly, a lawyer can self-target. So I guess you (kind of?) have that. That's not what I do when I host, but whatever (I hate self-targeting).

But here's the thing: If I am a lawyer, I can't have used it on myself NP1, because of Magoroth's results. So there's another assumption you have to make.

I don't think any scum case against me withstands Occam's Razor. REMEMBER: It's not just the fact that I need to have one of a small handful of specific roles, it's that I also need to be doing a crazy gambit with Wryly on top of that... when it's far better for scum me to kill her NP2.

It's a valid argument that he can't be the GF, but that's about it. The disclaimer is basically just an extended point explaining why we shouldn't see alternatives as plausible because he wouldn't talk at length about the possibility of other roles being in the mix and wouldn't have kept you alive, which just aren't convincing reasons to dismiss his potentially being scum. Would hardly be a first for scum to talk about their actual role as a hypothetical, nor to leave an investigative alive with intent to use their result.

If you think it's a 50/50 or even so much as a 70/30 that I just outed my whole plan, the point of doing it would be defeated.

And the point of the disclaimer isn't just that I wouldn't be talking about it, it's to say that you need quite a few things to align for me to be scum.. The roles, the gambit with Wryly, the gambit of outing such a gambit, and anything that needs to align with any of the specific roles you think I could be.

Most of this I get, it's part of the reason I've been townreading Magoroth for so long. The one caveat is the bid for the Dayvig. I wouldn't be surprised if scum saw through that ruse early and therefore didn't see a risk in it.

Very possible.

Are you guys listening to this shit?

-Shining, Post #298 DP2. Thoth is known for being weird. I think it's the type of thing only scum would see through.

Thoth and Wryly cannot be godfather for the same reason I can't be godfather, see my case again.

I didn't argue that they could be. I said if anyone could manipulate those results by any means (Framer/Lawyer/GF), then it's possible, in this case only with the Lawyer.

But here's the thing: If I am a lawyer, I can't have used it on myself NP1, because of Magoroth's results. So there's another assumption you have to make.

It's not a big assumption, but fair, it is another assumption I'd have to make. To be clear, though, that assumption is that you didn't use it NP1 and did use it NP2. You could have multiple roles or have used it on your partner, since his being scum didn't show up in those results.

I don't think any scum case against me withstands Occam's Razor. REMEMBER: It's not just the fact that I need to have one of a small handful of specific roles, it's that I also need to be doing a crazy gambit with Wryly on top of that... when it's far better for scum me to kill her NP2.

I've been burned using Occam's Razor in these games before. When it comes to parsing crazier plays, it's usually a good idea to consider it. When it comes to dismissing certain roles, less so. That gambit is something I'm considering.

Are you guys listening to this shit?

-Shining, Post #298 DP2. Thoth is known for being weird. I think it's the type of thing only scum would see through.

Yeah, that post indicates that he saw through it, which means his partner would have as well.

Anyway, I'm calling it here. I'll address any more responses tomorrow.

https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12728-gameshow-mafia-endgame?page=2&post_number=31

From the endgame thread, on my read on Banana.

https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12727-game-show-mafia-dp5?page=1&post_number=4

From DP5, thoughts on Mikal. Post Banana flip

The presence of a tailor means mafia were almost certainly given character claims btw

Why is that?

I am Cassius Marsh's taunting call.

I need to ask Vader an important question and will report back.

I asked whether scum would have written the Tailored PM or told Vader what to write. Vader said scum would have written it themselves. Both NK flips so far look to be in Vader's hand. Compare this to the PM whiteflame concocted for Casey in Alien Mafia, where the writing style is obviously not Lunatic's. I think this pretty much proves that scum did not use the Tailor and also that they either Ninja'd Rex or Rolecopped someone on night 1, but I talked with whiteflame a while back about how blatantly fake Casey's Tailor was in hindsight, so I guess it's possible that he is scum and was careful to forge Vader's signature.

Why did they kill Kohai?

Did Shining ever claim anything? That could give us insight into what fake-claim info scum got.

I wonder if the theme split is that scum are injuries

Mag1c's "game solved" post strikes me as a mag1c show of smoke and mirrors, like he deployed this complicated battalion of arguments in hopes you won't notice the gaps that he should know better than to make. Mag1c said he thought before this day phase that Wryly was the Cop. What with Wryly being town-confirmed and Shining being scum's ukillity JOAT, it would not surprise me if Mag1c is a scum redirective role who took Wryly's Cop check and pushed it somewhere else. Not necessarily by Redirecting Wryly, either. He could have Deflected or Bus Drove himself.

That said, I need to go over all the Sensor-related discussion with a fine-toothed comb. Or a fine-toothed sensor.

Note that my work has started back up this week so probably won’t be responding to messages as frequently during the day and probably not at all after like 10pm cst

🤦‍♂️

ah yes. Let me bring little miss “MOTHERFUCKER YES MAG1C SCUM” into the next DP, and out my whole plan while doing it. This scum play won’t totally backfire. It’s totally not too risky.

again, it’s not just that I have to be a few specific roles, it’s that o have to be doing the most retarded gambit possible, while outing it

this is stupid

like he deployed this complicated battalion of arguments in hopes you won't notice the gaps that he should know better than to make.

I literally made concessions where there were to gaps for the sake of honesty

are you kidding me

Why is that?

Because tailor is great for stealing town roles to claim. Yeah it can be used to characters, but roles are more important.

So it makes sense that given how good tailor is for getting roles, characters would be provided.

And if he were town roleblocker (assuming Shining used tailor on him), it would be a scummy claim, yes. But is that not better than giving up?

On tailor:

It might just be this in combination with Rex not wanting to play anymore.

Alright, so I've gone through the links that have been presented and I've got a bunch of thoughts. I'll try to organize this, but it might be a little more stream of consciousness than I'd like.

At this point, I'm going to have to rule out Thoth and Wryly as possible scum. I was thinking through this wrong yesterday because it wouldn't matter if they Lawyered themselves NP1. Magoroth's result was that there was one scum on Rex's lynch, so we know Shining's teammate had to be on that lynch. The only way that isn't true is if they somehow Framed either Mag1c or me, which would make it look like there was one scum on the lynch. That's possible, but it's so specific that I just don't buy it. This is one of those instances where Occam's Razor does come into it for me: if the play has to have gone in one specific direction with scum having pulled off a crazy misdirect, then it's probably not what happened. If either of you actually did this, my hat is off to you, but we have to do some POE and you two are the least likely, both mechanically and behaviorally, to be scum at this point.

So that leaves just three: Mag1c, Magoroth and me.

I'll focus on mechanics first. Magoroth gave a result from his Sensor, which places the focus on the two remaining players who were on Rex's wagon: Mag1c and me. It was three last DP with Kohai still in the picture, but scum NK'd him, likely to drive focus to just the two of us. I can't see Mag1c doing that NK and then pursuing Magoroth this hard, since if he's scum, he'd know that that flip is going to put himself and me in a head's up situation next DP.

Beyond that, as Mag1c has pointed out, he can't be the GF. As a matter of fact, neither can I for the same reason. If Magoroth is telling the truth, then there is one scum between us and his results accurately portray that. The only difference between us in terms of investigations is Wryly's Cop, and at minimum, we do know that Mag1c getting an innocent result from her either came as a result of Mag1c actually being innocent or him having manipulated the result through other means (Lawyer or Redirector). We know if he used the former to get the innocent result NP2, then he didn't use it on himself NP1. We can also assume that the second scum has a role that counters either Magoroth's, Wryly's or both, so it's mainly just a question of which role and who has it.

So, at least mechanically, it's simpler to believe that Magoroth is than Mag1c. There are just fewer hoops we have to jump through. Magoroth would have had to gambit on the Sensor claim. Given the existence of a flipped Tracker and Wryly's Cop, the Sensor seems to add some big imbalances to the game, and they would apparently have to come without a scum GF, considering his result pegs Mag1c or I as scum.

Behavior is where I end up more confounded. I think Mag1c is right that scum have likely been bussing one another and we've certainly seen that play out over previous games. I don't think Shining would be shy about bussing, I just don't know if that was his plan this game. Dude gave up by the end of DP2 after providing a pretty weak set of reads. I could see him trying to take the lynch to protect his partner, especially if he had used the Tailored claim himself.

My behavioral read on Magoroth mainly comes down to how much uncertainties about his role have played a role in this game. I largely wrote him off as town because, frankly, if scum had fake claimed Sensor, they would know about its limitations. It would, however, not be a first for someone to fake claim a role and then adjust after asking questions that town had posed afterward. Still, his frustrated responses have come off as really townie to me, and I can't say that's changed this DP. I get that I haven't had experience watching him play before so this might be abnormal for him, but reading back through, it still looks townie.

Mag1c has always been a tricky read for me behaviorally. The TMI disclaimer on the Redirector looks pretty townie, but when so much of his case was predicated on him not being the GF, I think he had to expect a response about the roles he could be and just laid out everything to precede it. That's NAI to me. I can understand his point on the risks of using Wryly as part of a gambit as well, but given that he'd have to have some means of manipulating the result of her investigation if he's scum, that seems plausible, particularly going this late in the game at 4-1. If you're not taking risks at this point at scum, you won't make it to the end. Wryly's points on his behavior (delaying the lynch in particular) are things I've noted from his town play as well. The lack of direct bussing between him and Shining is a small point in his favor, even if I generally have trouble understanding what Shining's strategic goal was in DP2 at all.

The long and short of it is that I'd put the two of them on similar footing behaviorally, and give Mag1c the edge mechanically. Right now, my preferred lynch is Magoroth.

Got some bad news today I'm still trying to process; will be on later when I can get my head back in the game.

Got some bad news today I'm still trying to process; will be on later when I can get my head back in the game

Whatever it is, it takes priority. Take the time that you need.

So it makes sense that given how good tailor is for getting roles, characters would be provided.

Assuming that Tailor shows scum the role card of the person they tailored.

I asked Vader and he said he could not answer that.

Scumslip?

I think you are either the most experienced person here or the most experienced who isn't Mag1cman, so please tell me: Is Tailor showing scum the Tailoree's card common enough that you can reasonably assume it does so?

"experienced" referring to experience with the DebateCraft meta

I think you are either the most experienced person here or the most experienced who isn't Mag1cman, so please tell me: Is Tailor showing scum the Tailoree's card common enough that you can reasonably assume it does so?

It’s been common to my experience with it at least, both from a town perspective and as scum having used it (I’d have to dig back to find it and I’m currently on my phone, but I’ll look into it when I get on my computer). Usually similar to a Janitor in that respect, only with the overwriting mechanic instead of the hidden flip.

Just throwing it out there: If we somehow prove that scum used the Tailor, whiteflame is the scummiest scum who ever did scum. See post #95.

Assuming that Tailor shows scum the role card of the person they tailored.

I asked Vader and he said he could not answer that.

Scumslip?

No, it’s common for trailers to reveal to scum their role of the townie they just killed on here. It’s reasonable to assume such a feature of this game’s tailor.

Given that Shining had a Rolecop, I am inclined to sus anything that implied non-public knowledge about anyone's role. Like Mag1c saying he thought Wryly was Cop.

Scum has a tailor and a ninja. Why use rolecop? I think the former two are much better roles.

Lemme ask you this. Do you think the following thought process is natural? Why or why not?

1. Magoroth outed his character in his opening, while babbling about the pros and cons of him outing his character.
2. Magoroth claimed an investigate. By contrast, Pie was very secretive about his character, even refusing to soft for some time.
3. Given 1 and 2, Magaorth’s claim timing makes him suspect; it goes against the incentives of a town question the dangers of an early character claim, and an investigative.
4. Magoroth is scum.
5. Since Magoroth is scum, his sensor claim must be fake.
6. Vader usually has two investigatives in a 9 player game.
7. Given 4, 5, and 6, it is reasonable to conclude there is another investigative somewhere who has not claimed.
8. Wryly went out of her way to argue there could be three investigatives.
9. Wryly asked Magoroth if he was a dreamer, indicating she visited him.
10. Given 7, 8, and 9, Wryly is most likely to be the investigative who hasn’t claimed.

This wasn’t thought process. To restate: I scumread Magoroth, but the lack of another investigative somewhere was a challenge to my read. So I looked for someone who could be an investigative to amend this problem for my scumread of him.

I would not have called Wryly being cop, if it weren’t for scumread of Magoroth.

This wasn’t thought process

*Because that was my thought process

Lemme ask you this. Do you think the following thought process is natural? Why or why not?

1. Magoroth outed his character in his opening, while babbling about the pros and cons of him outing his character.
2. Magoroth claimed an investigative. By contrast, Pie was very secretive about his character, even refusing to soft for some time.
3. Given 1 and 2, Magaorth’s claim timing makes him suspect; it goes against the incentives of a townie questioning the dangers of an early character claim, and an investigative, who normally wants to be secretive about his character.
4. Magoroth is scum.
5. Since Magoroth is scum, his sensor claim must be fake.
6. Vader usually has two investigatives in a 9 player game.
7. Given 4, 5, and 6, it is reasonable to conclude there is another investigative somewhere who has not claimed.
8. Wryly went out of her way to argue there could be three investigatives.
9. Wryly asked Magoroth if he was a dreamer, indicating she visited him.
10. Given 7, 8, and 9, Wryly is most likely to be the investigative who hasn’t claimed.

Because this was my thought process. To restate: I scumread Magoroth, but the lack of another investigative somewhere was a challenge to my read. So I looked for someone who could be an investigative to amend this problem with my scumread of him.

I would not have called Wryly being cop, if it weren’t for my scumread of Magoroth.

Typos were so bad I just redid the post

Q: How much do my frequent typos trip yall up?