HCBM Mafia DP3

Just throwing it out there: If we somehow prove that scum used the Tailor, whiteflame is the scummiest scum who ever did scum. See post #95.

I don't get this point, but while I doubt we could prove that they used the Tailor, I'd say it's at least decently likely.

Given that Shining had a Rolecop, I am inclined to sus anything that implied non-public knowledge about anyone's role. Like Mag1c saying he thought Wryly was Cop.

I agree with Mag1c on this, I don't think there's much reason to believe Shining used the Rolecop over his other two roles. It's not impossible, but it seems pretty unlikely.

Q: How much do my frequent typos trip yall up?

Sometimes more than others, but I was able to make sense of this one.

If Magoroth is scum, then he chose to play it in the most unnecessarily risky way possible. His Sensor claim was a risk; his inconsistency on its details was a risk; his wild, desperate conjectures were risks; the distrust he expressed for the moderator's word was unnecessary and suspicious. As a result he has been a possible lynch target ever since the beginning of DP2. I just don't see in what world all this is a smart play for an experienced player.

Magoroth and Shining's interactions also remain something of an oddity if they are scummates. Shining attempted to discredit Magoroth's results pretty much as soon as he came out with them. After Shining expressed his desire for Magoroth to be the lynch, Magoroth started putting Shining high in his scumreads. This all happened in the middle of DP2, when lynch targets were still evolving and both of them could have done a lot more to steer focus away from one another.

Magoroth could also have denied us a lynch yesterday since Thoth was absent. He could have played tardy or voted someone else. We would have arrived today at MYLO. This is a hard datum for me to dismiss.

My preference is a Mag1c lynch, but I am not done mulling it over. If we mislynch Mag1c, we still have one more shot at LYLO, at least.

The Game Show mafia behaviors are noted.

As for Shining, a few posts where he agreed with me are nothing; I was very active and driving a lot of discussion throughout that DP. As for him townreading me, let's ask: Do you really expect scum to townread their teammate the whole game?

You didn't. You sussed Shining here and a little here. Shining didn't sus you a whole lot except when he said it was "worth taking into consideration" that "three vanilla-like" roles may be too much, but then, Shining was less active than you.

REMEMBER: I wouldn't have thought you were a cop had I townread Magoroth. I specifically searched for a third investigative (really a second one), because I really did not believe Magoroth's claim. The belief in a third investigative that you had would've been interesting, but alone it wouldn't have been enough for me to say you were investigative. For your obvious visit of him, I would have brushed it off as a protective visit; Whiteflame had not claimed at that time.

Not true; you could have thought there was a Cop because you possess roles which make a Cop necessary, such as Lawyer, or because Shining rolecopped me. You then saw Magoroth claim Sensor and, in searching for arguments to discredit him, thought to try and argue that the abundance of investigative roles was impossible and Magoroth was probably lying. This strikes me as a good way to try to get me to expose I was the Cop, if you didn't yet know which one of us it was, and a good way to try and get Magoroth mislynched.

btw, I specifically wanted to hammer this point in because Magoroth spent a lot of time talking about a godfather last DP, at times accusing me of being the godfather. I took it as TMI.

It was odd. Magoroth is not out of my suspicions.

ah yes. Let me bring little miss “MOTHERFUCKER YES MAG1C SCUM”

Petition not to be known as Little Miss Yes Motherfucker

Q: How much do my frequent typos trip yall up?

Not a lot.

Vader and I had a failure to communicate that turned into what Bob Ross might have called a happy accident. I declared well before end-of-day yesterday that I was changing the lynch to Mag1c. He thought I meant I was only changing it if I were lynched. I know you would all probably be scumreading the ever-living shit out of me for failing to use my Governor veto after saying I would, and, in Mafia, unlike reality, a government official can be punished for failing to follow through on a promise. Thank you to Magoroth for clearing me.

Do you mean you left instructions with Vader to only allow a Mag1c lynch and he misunderstood?

Why did they kill Kohai?

It's a good question that remains unresolved. My conjecture is that I'm alive because they knew I was the Cop and wanted me to cop a Lawyer or Redirector or something. Why they didn't kill whiteflame, I don't know. His deductive power is something they shouldn't want in DP3, but they might have seen him as a possible mislynch target. If Mag1c is scum, he wanted Magoroth in to mislynch; if Magoroth is scum, he wanted Mag1c in to mislynch. Why Kohai over you? No clue.

Did Shining ever claim anything? That could give us insight into what fake-claim info scum got.

Roleblocker.

I wonder if the theme split is that scum are injuries

Definitely possible.

*Randall Cobb's Week 16 Touchdown - Roleblocker

I wonder if the theme split is that scum are injuries

On second look, it looks like Rex was an injury.

Do you mean you left instructions with Vader to only allow a Mag1c lynch and he misunderstood?

I told him that, if anyone but Mag1c were lynched, I would use my Governor ability to change the lynch to him. Vader thought I meant that I was only using it if I were going to be lynched.

*Randall Cobb's Week 16 Touchdown - Roleblocker

Then I am betting that scum got role claims rather than 'character' claims. Blindly claiming Roleblocker is one heck of a risk.

Unless maybe there is a scum Roleblocker?

Anyone want to report evidence of one?

On second look, it looks like Rex was an injury.

Yeah but what's his character?

Anyway, by injury I meant an injury to a Bears player which contributed to the Bears losing. It sounds to me like Rex's character was an injury suffered by a player on the other team, and that player turned things around in spite of the injury.

Then I am betting that scum got role claims rather than 'character' claims. Blindly claiming Roleblocker is one heck of a risk.

Unless maybe there is a scum Roleblocker?

Anyone want to report evidence of one?

If Mag1c is scum, he would have to have a Lawyer or Redirector or Deflector or Bus Driver or something like that, so if he also has a Roleblocker, wouldn't that make him a bit of a JOAT as well? Do mafia ever get two JOATs?

Do mafia ever get two JOATs?

I guess it's plausible, especially since Shining's JOAT had killing and investigative powers, with no hint of ability-manipulation like Redirector or Roleblocker. Division of labor.

The good news about our situation is that scum can't avoid bringing a confirmed townie to final three. If whiteflame is town, I think this will likely come down to who he protects tonight. If he guards the NK target, then Wryly and I vote out whoever is left.

I need a bit of a whimsy lift, so have one last injection of wylted quotes.

Wylted: Masturbation Mafia sign ups. This is a solo mafia game. I will only be accepting one player. Signups below.

1.

Yes, someone did sign up and play, you can read it here.

Wylted: I am sexually attracted to gnomes. I don't know why, but ever since I watched David the gnome as a kid I have been attracted to women who look like his wife. My fiance looks like a gnome. Well recently at work, we have a new GM who looks just like a perfect gnome. I haven't seen such a perfect gnome looking woman in years. Long story short, when she walked in, I dropped a bunch of things and just started staring and zoned out, so it looks like I might be fired for my odd behavior. The last time this happened, I was playing a pool game and a lot of money was on the line. I dropped my cue and started walking towards the gnome looking girl. She was so beautiful. Anyway my friend is screaming at me, because he was my banker. I go over to her and I have to scream because the bar is loud and I scream at her, that I want her to stand on my lawn. She gives a confused look, and her boyfriend starts approaching. I tell her "I love you, please let me take you home and make love to you on my lawn". Her boyfriend tries to fight me, but my friends drag me away, and give me shit for losing them money on a pool game.

Regarding this next one: I strongly suspected DrChristineFord was an alter ego of Wylted's he used to play the part of his own therapist.

Wylted: It is my theory, not saying it is true, that BSH1 is not a gay guy. IN Order to be a guy, you need to have balls, and he is too scared to face me in a live debate exclusively meant for Patreon members. He is most likely a heterosexual female. I have even offerred him a McDonalds gift card for participating with no strings attached. I am even willing to up the stakes by putting my imaginary debate champion belt on the line, here after known as "THE SPIRIT BELT". 

Wylted: @bsh1 Send me a picture of you nut sack or debate me live to clear your name. I will not doxx you. The nut sack picture will only be seen by me.

Ramshutu: This is the most pathetic and convoluted attempt I’ve ever seen of a lonely single man trying to solicit dick picks

Wylted: I asked for a nut sack picture not a dick picture. That would be gay for me to ask to see anotger man's dick.

DrChristineFord: If a fat woman in a basement wants to pretend she's a gay guy, there's nothing wrong with that. We already went through this. And anyway. Nothing easier than sending a photo of some random guy's balls. Your level of proof is offensively low. 

Wylted: Correct, I now request he writes my name in permanent marker on his balls before sending the photo

DrChristineFord: Non-permanent would be fine. 

Brings a whole new meaning to the role Mafia Goon

Good to have you back. Damn those Wylted posts just make my day every day.

I take your points on Mag1c and Magoroth. I haven't locked in my vote yet since I'm still pretty torn. We should have some leeway if we mislynch since it's presumably 4-1, but given that we know scum have a role to manipulate your results, we probably have all the useful information we're going to get already.

It's a good question that remains unresolved. My conjecture is that I'm alive because they knew I was the Cop and wanted me to cop a Lawyer or Redirector or something. Why they didn't kill whiteflame, I don't know. His deductive power is something they shouldn't want in DP3, but they might have seen him as a possible mislynch target. If Mag1c is scum, he wanted Magoroth in to mislynch; if Magoroth is scum, he wanted Mag1c in to mislynch. Why Kohai over you? No clue.

As I mentioned earlier, the only reason I can think of is to make the decision a heads up between Mag1c and me. I think he'd have to be awfully confident that he could get both Magoroth and me lynched to do it. Maybe he was just that sure he could manage it, but the decision puzzles me.

If Mag1c is scum, he would have to have a Lawyer or Redirector or Deflector or Bus Driver or something like that, so if he also has a Roleblocker, wouldn't that make him a bit of a JOAT as well? Do mafia ever get two JOATs?

It does happen. So long as they have distinct role sets, scum having two JOATs can still be balanced.

It's been a while since you've chimed in, would like to get your thoughts on the cases that have been laid out.

sorry, been kinda skimming but not really reading in detail. I’ll be on more in a few hours

my thoughts are that Wryly is almost certainly Town, I think Thoth is town also. so we need to lynch between Mag1cman and Whiteflame

If Mag1c is scum, he would have to have a Lawyer or Redirector or Deflector or Bus Driver or something like that, so if he also has a Roleblocker, wouldn't that make him a bit of a JOAT as well? Do mafia ever get two JOATs?

Sometimes. Not too often.

Another assumption you have to make though

I wonder if the theme split is that scum are injuries

On second look, it looks like Rex was an injury.

Anyway, by injury I meant an injury to a Bears player which contributed to the Bears losing. It sounds to me like Rex's character was an injury suffered by a player on the other team, and that player turned things around in spite of the injury.

What if you were right to begin with, actually. What if scum are injuries, and when they tailored Rex they just gave him one of their characters while taking his for a fake claim.

Mag1c asked Rex at the end of DP1 why he was "here and just committing seppuku" by refusing to claim. Rex said it would make sense when we read his flip. Except it didn't. What about Bleeder makes it advantageous to let yourself be mislynched DP1? Unless he actually had a different role and Bleeder was tailored.

Another assumption you have to make though

Not if scum asked for role claims instead of character claims. I assumed they would prefer to ask for role claims since justifications are so loose this game; they could make up anything for character.

I did wonder why they didn't just straight claim their characters because of that, actually. Only reason I can think of is it would have made the theme split too apparent.

Rex said it would make sense when we read his flip. Except it didn't.

Excellent point. While all the flips so far appear to be pretty much in Vader's writing style, I did think earlier that, if I had to pick one flip as looking like someone else wrote it, it would be Rex's. As I explained in post #95, Vader said that scum would write a Tailor's entire fake role card, and whiteflame is probably the only person who would think to imitate the game host's writing style. As badly as I have been gutreading some of Mag1c's behavior, I'm almost ready to death-tunnel whiteflame over this.

Maybe there's some reason why Rex thought his flip be ex post facto self-explanatory. whiteflame, I'd like your take on that.

Another assumption you have to make though

This is one of those gutreadable behavioral tells I mentioned in my previous post. This comes off to me as scum pointing us in their desired direction.

This opens the question of why scum would Tailor Rex to look like a Bleeder. Also, unless you want to argue that Governor is protective, Bleeder and whiteflame both get credibility since whiteflame is the only other claimed quasi-protective role.

I checked one of Vader's games on DebateArt and found that it did have a Vanilla in it. That's a point in Mag1c's favor.

For the trillionth time, I still think this all boils down to whether or not we trust that Magoroth is the Sensor.

Not if Rex was the Vanilla, that's why he was apathetic about getting lynched, and Mag1c stole his Vanilla and fake claimed it.

Mag1c asked Rex at the end of DP1 why he was "here and just committing seppuku" by refusing to claim. Rex said it would make sense when we read his flip. Except it didn't. What about Bleeder makes it advantageous to let yourself be mislynched DP1? Unless he actually had a different role and Bleeder was tailored.

I pointed this out earlier this DP. When faced with a mislynch, I'm not even sure there's a role in the game where he's better off getting lynched than claiming. I ended up concluding that Rex may have been tailored (town redirector, which Shining stole? Not sure), but he also just didn't feel like playing the game anymore.

Although, now that I think about it: If Rex was tailored, why didn't the mafia team make him flip hated? It'd immediately screw Kohai over. It may be that Shining just used the ninja.

Not if scum asked for role claims instead of character claims. I assumed they would prefer to ask for role claims since justifications are so loose this game; they could make up anything for character.

1. Mafia are given fake claims. However, they are either given fake characters or fake roles. They are not given both. They did not choose which one they got

From the DP1 intro.