HCBM Mafia DP3

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testing if I need to make the links blue myself so yall can see them

The Case Against Magoroth

I. Magoroth used his character fake claim for town cred.

1. The theme could be quite difficult for anyone who isn’t a Bears fan. This could indicate character claims were given.
2. The tailor likely gives the mafia team the card of the person they defeated, which makes it great at gaining roles to claim. This could indicate character claims were given.
3. Post 61 of DP1: Shining(!) doesn’t even consider the idea of mafia having a role claim; in fact, he chooses to debunk the idea of Kohai trying a RISKY fakeclaim, not one provided. This indicates character claims were given.
4. DP1: Magoroth spent time in posts 15 and 18 talking about the usefulness of claiming, and expresses a concern at the dangers of claiming in 26, and says he didn’t want to immediately claim in 37, meaning he was thinking about the dangers before 24. But in 24, he claimed his character. Here’s the thing: If you’re town and not fully sure of the benefits and risks of claiming, you’re not gonna do it. It goes against any town incentive.
5. The previous point is doubly true if you’re an investigative. They are the most important town roles in the game. If common sense isn’t enough to give pause on claiming, being an investigative certainly should be. Look at Pie. He was so concerned about outing his character that he refused to soft. And Wryly didn’t claim character until she was convinced scum couldn’t figure out her role based on character, and when she felt mass character claiming was helpful. By contrast, Magoroth didn’t appear to be sure of anything, yet claimed.

II. Magoroth fake claimed sensor.

1. Point #4 of the previous section.
2. Mod Psych: While three investigations have happened in Vader’s games, they aren’t common. In his 9-player games, it’s quite rare, and in any Vader game of any size, the third investigative usually has some drawback.
3. Sensor + Cop + Tracker is OP in general.
4. Magoroth hasn’t been here before. He probably doesn’t realize that claiming sensor is risky in a game like this, as he likely wasn’t aware of how he could be screwed on the amount of investigative claims.
5. Most teammates wouldn’t let Magoroth claim like this. No offense to Shining, but I think he is lazy and/or nonchalant enough. Or could've been convinced.
6. Magoroth spends a lot of time in DP2 doubting his own results. The goal is to downplay just how strong his role is, to make it seem less OP, and with hopes he can claim interference, which helps him be flexible. "What is my plan with all this?" is an attempt at town cred- In truth, mafia doesn't want a specific big-brained plan to mislynch people; they want a plan that makes them looks towny, and is flexible.
7. He places 1 scum on the wagon, 1 off. Like the previous point, both allow him to remain flexible. The selection of people he could push would be more limited if he claimed 0 or 2 on the wagon.
8. An alternative theory: Let’s imagine a world with three investigatives. Does that make Magoroth town? Not really. His quick character claim is still against any town or investigative incentive. But you know who refused that I haven’t mentioned? Rex. Like Pie, he didn’t want to claim. What if an investigative role is the flip he felt we’d recognize as the reason he didn’t want to claim? No matter the role, I’ve already concluded Rex just didn’t want to play, and that’s part of the reason he allowed his lynch. If he cared that little, why can’t that be the case if he was the Sensor all along?
9. Either way: Magoroth is Godfather, explaining the innocent result from Wryly. He doesn’t have to be godfather (everything you say I could be, so could he), but it seems most likely given the amount of time he’s spent talking about it; it’s the reason I started thinking there is one in the first place. More on this in Section III.

III. There are various behavioral tells.

1. A bit of shade-throwing across DP1 (50, 122, 151) and DP2 (24, 26, 28, 116).
2. Always being opportunistic. DP1, joins the Pie wagon out of nowhere (380) and ends up voting Rex with us (469- hammer). DP2, joins Thoth in voting me (213). This DP, susses me, but then pivots to Whiteflame the second Thoth says something anti-Whiteflame. Pivots back to me after Wryly places her most recent sus on me. Understandable on Rex, baffling elsewhere. It's a clear pattern.
3. A bit more on that Pie wagon: He said he hoped it wasn’t hammer. But then why vote? This type of carelessness doesn’t come from town, who wants to check all avenues before voting. It comes from scum eager to get the mislynch through.
4. Frequent OMGUS of me since DP2.
5. Projecting. When I get catty with him, he accuses me of being performative, while doing the same thing in the same post (420- pointed out in 421). He’s also asserted that I must be godfather this game (DP2: 237; DP3: 67), which is why I’ve felt he was a godfather since DP2 (505).
6. TMI. He’s spent a lot of time asserting a godfather exists, some of it long before the thought ever crossed my mind (DP2: 189, 237, 393, 400, 501; DP3: 38, 44, 47, 51, 53, 67). NOTE: It’s not the fact that he mentioned the role, it’s that he’s made post after post after post about it. He’s treated it as a given ever since his sensor claim.
7. Publicly asking Vader questions, which he knows will be answered privately, early in this DP. That’s performative. “Look at me, I totally wouldn’t ask questions in private because I’m not doing anything in a private chat right now!”
8. In general, I get the vibes he was too friendly to start this game, constant :P and =D. Y'all have seen it. Just feels like him taking advantage of the fact that he’s new, so he can put up a really friendly and innocent exterior.

Good luck, Magoroth! You're going to need it.

Unofficial vote count

Magoroth (1/3) - Mag1c

Mag1c (1/3) - Magoroth

time remaining.. less than 24 hrs. dp ends noon-ish tmrw. something like that. double check me plz

vote count + time check? plz

Point #4 of the previous section

#5

12:30 pm CST end time

So 1:30 pm est

A lot of that was wifom, so I'll just say: yes, a lot of Magoroth's behavior has been sus. I agree that his waffling on the accuracy of Sensor seemed like him trying to walk back a fake claim that didn't land well. His FOS's change with the wind. I'm not sure why he character claimed so early. I'm baffled by his mistrust of the moderator.

Sensor + Cop + Tracker does seem hella OP, and I'm still not sure I believe it. But I do note that scum were given Ninja to counter Tracker, and we suspect they were given something to counter Cop. I would also say that we can't trust that Pie's Tracker wasn't tailored, but I think the presence of a Ninja confirms it.

An alternative theory: Let’s imagine a world with three investigatives. Does that make Magoroth town? Not really. His quick character claim is still against any town or investigative incentive. But you know who refused that I haven’t mentioned? Rex. Like Pie, he didn’t want to claim. What if an investigative role is the flip he felt we’d recognize as the reason he didn’t want to claim? No matter the role, I’ve already concluded Rex just didn’t want to play, and that’s part of the reason he allowed his lynch. If he cared that little, why can’t that be the case if he was the Sensor all along?

If he was Sensor, I don't get his behavior. If I was the Sensor and in danger of a mislynch, I would claim in hopes that the protective would target me that night and I would live to report my info. Why roll over and give up when you have valuable intel to contribute?

Either way: Magoroth is Godfather, explaining the innocent result from Wryly.

My brain may be fritzing again. I never copped Magoroth. How does my innocent result on you explain that Magoroth is a Godfather?

You also haven't addressed why Magoroth bussed Shining unnecessarily last DP, or why Shining discredited Magoroth's information so strongly.

We can lynch one and if we miss just lynch the other next DP. The question is just who's first.

Nice deployment of ChatGPT in post #183

Post #3 today implies Magoroth knows what a Tailor does. Is this a known role in the communit(y/ies) he has played in?

I'm reasonably convinced that Mag1c is a scum redirective role and not a GF/lawyer/whatever.

What I kinda suspect right now is that Mag1c is a bus driver and swapped himself with a townie

Vote Count

Magoroth (1/3) - Mag1c

Mag1c (1/3) - Magoroth

7 and 1/2 hours remain

VTL Mag1c

I'm putting it there for now. Someone else can drop the hammer.

Although it did just cross my mind that the Sensor claim could be a ploy to dupe myself and Wryly, since we know we are town and it town-confirms us, so we would think the supposed Sensor is townie too. That is, assuming Wryly is town. Kill one, bring the other to final three having earned their trust, and bam, you win.

Magoroth is scum, has sucked at flying under the scumdar all game, bussed Shining, and during DP2, Shining made a bid to get his own scummate dayvigged just as a ruse (high risk, low reward gambit).

(Post #72) I actually think this clears Magoroth, so maybe my dayvig lie was good for something after all.

I'm not one to speak in certainties about ongoing Mafia games, but I feel confident enough that we win by lynching either Mag1c or whiteflame today and the other tomorrow.

The one caveat is the bid for the Dayvig. I wouldn't be surprised if scum saw through that ruse early and therefore didn't see a risk in it.

(Post #82)

Why would it occur to them?

Y'all are reading Shining's post about, "are y'all listening to this shit", as seeing through my dayvig. I think he bought it and was trying to cast doubt on it.

Yes, Tailor is well known on Sc2.

I have a setup that has a tailor.

DP1: Magoroth spent time in posts 15 and 18 talking about the usefulness of claiming, and expresses a concern at the dangers of claiming in 26, and says he didn’t want to immediately claim in 37, meaning he was thinking about the dangers before 24. But in 24, he claimed his character. Here’s the thing: If you’re town and not fully sure of the benefits and risks of claiming, you’re not gonna do it. It goes against any town incentive.

We were told from the outset that justifications might not be great for certain character-role connections, and at least based on his character claim, I don't think it was obvious that he was the Sensor. Pie may have been more concerned that someone would read into his claim (though I also don't see his as obvious) and figure out his role, but that doesn't mean it was scummy for Magoroth to see it as less risky. That being said, I agree that the inconsistency in his perception of claiming his character was odd, since he expressed his concerns about the risks of claiming, but did it anyway.

Sensor + Cop + Tracker is OP in general.

I agree, it sets an odd balance, particularly in a game where neither scum could be the GF.

Magoroth spends a lot of time in DP2 doubting his own results. The goal is to downplay just how strong his role is, to make it seem less OP, and with hopes he can claim interference, which helps him be flexible. "What is my plan with all this?" is an attempt at town cred- In truth, mafia doesn't want a specific big-brained plan to mislynch people; they want a plan that makes them looks towny, and is flexible.

I don't really get the idea here. I can see your point that he could have been trying to downplay the strength of his role, but the inconsistencies on this front didn't look like a ploy. Would've been one thing if he'd come out the gate saying "yeah, my role could have been manipulated." The caveat, as I mentioned earlier, could be that he wasn't expecting to be asked about the accuracy of his role result and got confounded upon asking Vader how it would work. Either way, it comes off as genuinely being puzzled about how to take that information.

An alternative theory: Let’s imagine a world with three investigatives. Does that make Magoroth town? Not really. His quick character claim is still against any town or investigative incentive. But you know who refused that I haven’t mentioned? Rex. Like Pie, he didn’t want to claim. What if an investigative role is the flip he felt we’d recognize as the reason he didn’t want to claim? No matter the role, I’ve already concluded Rex just didn’t want to play, and that’s part of the reason he allowed his lynch. If he cared that little, why can’t that be the case if he was the Sensor all along?

This might be the case, but it's starting to get a little more into the weeds. Claiming the Sensor after seeing the Tracker flip would be pretty ballsy from his perspective, even if he knew there was a Sensor in the game.

Either way: Magoroth is Godfather, explaining the innocent result from Wryly. He doesn’t have to be godfather (everything you say I could be, so could he), but it seems most likely given the amount of time he’s spent talking about it; it’s the reason I started thinking there is one in the first place.

He didn't get a result from Wryly.

Always being opportunistic. DP1, joins the Pie wagon out of nowhere (380) and ends up voting Rex with us (469- hammer). DP2, joins Thoth in voting me (213). This DP, susses me, but then pivots to Whiteflame the second Thoth says something anti-Whiteflame.

It's not unusual for people to find my play off-putting, but the timing did seem off.

A bit more on that Pie wagon: He said he hoped it wasn’t hammer. But then why vote? This type of carelessness doesn’t come from town, who wants to check all avenues before voting. It comes from scum eager to get the mislynch through.

Yeah, that stood out to me too. He said it's not unusual for him to just go for it like this, though I don't have the experience with him to determine that.

TMI. He’s spent a lot of time asserting a godfather exists, some of it long before the thought ever crossed my mind (DP2: 189, 237, 393, 400, 501; DP3: 38, 44, 47, 51, 53, 67). NOTE: It’s not the fact that he mentioned the role, it’s that he’s made post after post after post about it. He’s treated it as a given ever since his sensor claim.

Believing that there is a GF in the game makes sense from the perspective of an investigative role like this. What makes less sense is why he's continued to talk about it since Shining's flip.

We can lynch one and if we miss just lynch the other next DP. The question is just who's first.

You're right, it's just a question of priority. Right now, my preference is still Magoroth, but given that you and Thoth are effectively town-confirmed, I'm deferring to the decision you two make.

Why would it occur to them?

Y'all are reading Shining's post about, "are y'all listening to this shit", as seeing through my dayvig. I think he bought it and was trying to cast doubt on it.

I agree, he was trying to cast doubt on it, but I don't think he would have been nearly this blatant about it if he believed it was real. He was basically putting a huge neon sign on himself daring you to shoot him.

How am I using my fake claim for town cred? What town cred did it even buy me to claim my character?

And, I already said my character has 0 bearing on my role. And even if it had, why do I only have to do things that are “pro-Town”? What is pro-Town about Pie’s refusal to claim?

What is pro-Town about you hunting for investigatives, for that matter?

My side of the story is EXTREMELY simple, yours is just pile on top of piles of bullshit. I claimed because I felt like it and I saw others claiming. I didn’t even claim my role like you’re trying to imply. And your shtick is that I am afraid of claiming as scum because I’m not a Bear Fan? Well, I literally claimed my character at the very start. why would I do that as scum?

as for “downplaying” my sensor role - I didn’t downplay shit. I am new here 1) and my understanding was that you guys like crazy setups 2), so I didn’t trust my results. I don’t like trusting mechanical information, it’s so easy to get interference, perhaps a hidden modifier on my role, or even hidden modifiers from scum - which Vader CONFIRMED would interfere my results, so you might want to give me more credit than that.

why would I even fake claim Sensor of all roles? I could literally just claim Vanilla, it fits my character MUCH better than Sensor does.

as for the remainder? You are scumreading things that don’t matter, so I don’t know what to say. I am not being opportunistic, if I was scum I would pay more attention to how I’m seen than you’re giving me credit for; voting EVERYONE is a TOWN tell, not a scum tell. SCUM = Sheep, Town = LEADERS. I was the first to vote Shining yesterday btw and I also hammered him.

Nice deployment of ChatGPT in post #183

Me: Organizes hand-typed post to make it readable.

This retard: ChatGPT!!!!!

Y'all are reading Shining's post about, "are y'all listening to this shit", as seeing through my dayvig. I think he bought it and was trying to cast doubt on it.

Orrrrr. He was laughing at Amit because he figured you were bluffing and knew distancing Magorth is fine.

This isn’t that hard. I don’t get how you can see obvious shit and then conclude the opposite.

Oh you copped Pie. I had it in my mind you copped Magoroth because you asked him about dreamer.

ok nvm then. He doesnt even have to be any role that intercedes with investigators then

*interferes

Like he could be literally any scum role