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HCBM Mafia DP4

Started by Vader

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Total: 92
#1 •••


Debates: 0

Comments: 418

Graveyard

Rex- You are Aaron Rodger’s 2nd half comeback down 21. In 2018, after being up 21 with a Khalil Mack Pick Six, you choke a 21 point lead after Rodgers comes back from an injury that he suffered in the 2nd quarter. You are the Bleeder. You survive lethal night kills and will die the following night.

AFFILIATION: TOWN


Pie- You are BJ Raji’s Pick Six - In the NFC Championship Game in 2010, after Jay Cutler got hurt, Caleb Henne came in and threw a pick six to the fattest defensive linemen on the team, sealing the win for the Packers to go to the Super Bowl. You are the Tracker. Each night you may choose someone to follow

AFFILIATION: TOWN


Shining - Shining -You are Zach Miller’s horrible ankle injury. In 2017, while making a catch against the Saints, you destroyed your ankle and had to retire from the NFL. The worst part about that is that the catch didn’t count. You are the JOAT. You have the follow abilities

Ninja

Role Cop

1x Tailor

AFFILIATION: MAFIA


Kohai- You are Matt Eberflus’ Thanksgiving Clock Management - In 2024, Matt Eberflus decided to not take a timeout with 42 seconds left down 3 at Detroit’s 48, thus causing time to run down and costing the Bears the game. This call was so bad, and so many people called for Eberflus to be fired, that the Bears fired a coach in the midseason for the first time in 100 years. You are Hated. It takes one less vote to lynch you.

AFFILIATION: TOWN


Magic - You are choking a lead to the 0-3 Broncos that just lost 70-20 to the Dolphins - After being up 28-7 in the 4th quarter, you blew that lead to a Russell Wilson team that let the Miami Dolphins score 70 on them the previous week. You are Vanilla. You have no abilities. 

AFFILIATION: TOWN


Thoth - You are Cassius Marsh’s Taunting Call - In 2021, while up by 2 versus the Steelers, a controversial taunting call that caused the Steelers to get within field goal range with 10 seconds left, thus causing the Bears to lose. You are the 1x Governor. Once after the day phase you may choose to overturn a lynch.

AFFILIATION: TOWN


Players

  1. Magoroth
  2. Wryly
  3. Whiteflame


With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

You have until Jan 10th, 8:15pm CST

Edit comment

Kick logic to the curb and do the impossible!

ISO #2 •••
--> @Magoroth, @whiteflame, @Wryly

mafia

Edit post

Kick logic to the curb and do the impossible!

ISO #3 •••

Well, third try was not the charm. I used my role on Wryly again (better to save a role that could actually be used than one that no longer functions this DP).


Alright, with three of us left, it's clear that the choice is between Magoroth and me, placing Wryly in the position to make this decision. We spent a lot of time discussing this last DP when he was my top scum read and, frankly, not much has changed. I was pretty shocked that Magoroth was calling for the lynch to be transferred to him by Thoth, but given the latter's extended absence from the DP and his desire to lynch Mag1c (Thoth said that he had tried to use his Governor to get the DP2 lynch shifted to Mag1c), I guess he was just that confident. Honestly, well played, had me questioning my read all the way up to Mag1c's flip.


I'm going to just place my vote, since there's no way I'm voting differently this DP. Wryly, any discussion you want to have, the floor is yours.


VTL Magoroth

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ISO #4 •••

🫩 Right. Ngl was kind of hoping I'd be NK'd and spared this decision.

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ISO #5 •••

I was dead wrong last DP so I'm in that headspace where I don't trust anything I think -- just the place where scum wants the deciding voter to be in DP4. I copped whiteflame and got an innocent result, indicating Magoroth's guilt. I doubted my result last DP to my regret.


Both of you VTL'd Shining when he easily could have lived if one of you didn't, so I've learned a lesson here about scum's willingness to bus.


I doubt there is no protective role, and also doubt there are three investigatives, so whiteflame's role is much more believable than Magoroth's. I do have an innocent result on whiteflame. So the facts seem weighted against Magoroth.

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ISO #6 •••

Vote Count

Magoroth (1/5) - Whiteflame


NOTE: if the DP ends and I am not around, this DP will remain open until I post endgame

Edit post

Kick logic to the curb and do the impossible!

ISO #7 •••
--> @Vader

1/5?

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ISO #8 •••
--> @Wryly
1/5?


Clearly, the NL is inevitable.

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ISO #9 •••

Anyway, I'm heading off for the night, as sleep issues have persisted and I'm flagging fast. Magoroth probably won't post tonight anyway. Will be around tomorrow.

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ISO #10 •••
--> @whiteflame

1/3 sorry

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Kick logic to the curb and do the impossible!

ISO #11 •••

1/2, wow went 0/2 there

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Kick logic to the curb and do the impossible!

ISO #12 •••
--> @Wryly

VTL Whiteflame


I guess it’s up to the two of us to convince you to make the right or wrong decision, wryly.

I don’t who I would vote if I was in your shoes, but I’d probably vote myself based on how unlikely Cop/Sensor/Tracker are, and Whiteflame seemingly not being Godfather (unless you checked him last night?)


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ISO #13 •••
--> @Wryly

From your perspective, there is 100% a scum between me and Whiteflame, unless you’re scum and choosing not to hammer for some weird shenanigans for some reason.


I made a case on Whiteflame yesterday, and (it’s obviously) correct from my perspective. Whiteflame has been very indecisive yesterday, you should check how he kept giving reasons to be town reading me then actually SCUMREADING ME or saying he will vote me. This is not normal town behaviour. He is scum, check literally last 2-3 pages of the previous day phase, it’s what Whiteflame has been doing lol.


“Behaviourally he seems frustrated Town"


> proceeds to vote Magoroth


tell me that makes any sense? I am literally Sensor, and from my perspective you should almost certainly be scum (at least up until today), yet you were literally bottom of my suspect list for most of this game. and that’s from BEHAVIOUR.


this is ignoring the fact that he voted one of his townreads, which makes zero sense

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ISO #14 •••

And, you say the setup seems unlikely, I don’t actually think it’s that unlikely. Think about it from my perspective as a Sensor, assume I am Town for a second here.


Obviously, whatever Whiteflame’s role is, he is not Bodyguard. He has to be Redirector and he probably made you visit yourself, that or some hidden bus driver. So the setup isn’t actually that nuts in this case, Sensor/Tracker/Cop vs Ninja+Redirector is somewhat balanced, it also means my role is the only Investigative whose results are 100% guaranteed to be accurate. So, the setup is nowhere near as unlikely as you might think.


Yesterday I asked Whiteflame why the hell he considered Thoth and you to be nearly confirmed Town, because that didn’t make sense, he gave me some jazz about Redirector being unlikely (pretty hilarious considering he has to be Redirector, I should’ve picked up on that TMI slip), it’s actually TMI-ish because he knows I’m a Sensor and figured you really were confirmed Town due to my results. Ask yourself this, why would Town!Whiteflame think you’re ALMOST confirmed Town? The mech is really weak lol.


I townread both you and Thoth but, yes, YOU I had as very sure Town, but not Thoth. Thoth I could still see being scum. Because I’m not scum lol.


So, yes, it’s Whiteflame.

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ISO #15 •••

Also - I wouldn’t kill Thoth if I was scum here. He seemed to be town reading me, or at least trusting Whiteflame and Mag1cman less than he trusts me. This kill benefits Whiteflame.


Yes, I know, WIFOM, but this really isn’t the time for WIFOM. It really only benefits Whiteflame. I don’t kill the person who can help me make it through endgame. You survived because you townread the scum.

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ISO #16 •••

I'm just going to go through and address the major points.


First, I cannot possibly be the GF and Magoroth knows it. If he really is the Sensor, then someone between me, Kohai and Mag1c either must be scum or must have been Framed (as he mentioned last DP). He's discarded the latter option (fairly, since only Wryly could have done it and both of us have every reason to townread her) and focused on me. Kohai and Mag1c flipped town. If I'm the GF, Magoroth's result would have said there were 0 scum on the lynch. I'm in a similar position to Mag1c last DP where the circumstances required for me to be scum are rather specific: I could have manipulated Wryly's result (she copped me innocent) and I would also have failed to manipulate Magoroth's result. In a game where there is apparently both a Cop and a Sensor, the idea that scum only has a response to one (the Redirector he accuses me of being wouldn't do anything against a Sensor) is pretty ridiculous. By contrast, Magoroth has no results on him, and thus has the potential to be just about anything, including a GF.


Second, I made the case very clearly yesterday that my scumread on Magoroth was chiefly mechanical. I said that my behavioral read and only my behavioral read on Magoroth was town. Magoroth is new to the site, so I've been taking every behavioral read with a big grain of salt.


But let's talk about that mechanical read. Magoroth responds to one element of that mechanical read by arguing that Thoth could have been scum. He obviously wasn't. Given that Wryly hasn't voted yet when she could just get a mislynch and win the game now if she was scum, and given Thoth's flip, it's clear Magoroth was dead wrong with regards to his argument of there being a secret Framer. Somehow he turns that around on me and says it was TMI to point out that that highly specific scenario was unlikely? Or that mentioning the Redirector, something Mag1c spent a lot of time talking about last DP, is somehow a TMI slip? Really?


Magoroth also talks about is balance in this game if his role is Sensor and he's not doing himself any favors here. He points to the setup of "Sensor/Tracker/Cop vs Ninja+Redirector" and says it's "somewhat balanced" even though the odd role out there is... the Sensor. Ninja and Redirector do jack shit to a Sensor. He also doesn't address the big gaping hole in that setup, something he seemed to be acknowledging multiple times last DP when he kept saying that the setup does not make sense if I'm scum (267, 273, 314, 338). This effort to try and justify a clearly unbalanced setup flies in the face of his own logic.


Finally, he mentions the decision to kill Thoth. A couple of important elements here that he's glossing over.


He forgets that I'm the BG and that he had good reason to believe I'd protect Wryly. Magoroth was very blatant last DP about me being his focus probably because Thoth would have been a much more difficult target to get lynched if it came down to the two of them. That's not to mention that, since he would have some means to manipulate Wryly's role, he was probably counting on her copping him and using that as leverage going into the final DP.


Also, much as he's very focused on this lynch, he doesn't mention Kohai's NK NP2. As I pointed out last DP, that NK makes absolutely no sense for me, since it reduced POE based on Magoroth's results down to just me and Mag1c. He even called this out himself, saying how scum shooting within POE would automatically paint a target on them (449). The only person who stood to benefit from reducing POE was Magoroth because he ensured that the choices appeared obvious: just lynch these two and the game is over. Love the strategy, but if we're focused on WIFOM, Magoroth has plenty of reason to have performed both of these NKs.

Edit post

ISO #17 •••

Vote Count

Magoroth (1/2) - Whiteflame

Whiteflame (1/2) - Magoroth


NOTE: if the DP ends and I am not around, this DP will remain open until I post endgame


Edit post

Kick logic to the curb and do the impossible!

ISO #18 •••

Also note, bears are 0-2 since this game has been running

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Kick logic to the curb and do the impossible!

ISO #19 •••
--> @Vader
Also note, bears are 0-2 since this game has been running


Clearly our fault.

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ISO #20 •••
--> @Vader


Welp, time for you to pray I didn’t curse Cairo Santos.

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I still don’t know what to type!

ISO #21 •••
--> @Mag1cman

Dead players are not supposed to post in the day thread

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Forum signatures are bullshit. Nobody wants to waste their time and bandwidth reading something they have read 29,998,559,671,349 times before.

ISO #22 •••
--> @Thoth

What the hell man, no dead players posting!

Edit post

ISO #23 •••
--> @whiteflame

"

I'm just going to go through and address the major points.


First, I cannot possibly be the GF and Magoroth knows it. If he really is the Sensor, then someone between me, Kohai and Mag1c either must be scum or must have been Framed (as he mentioned last DP). He's discarded the latter option (fairly, since only Wryly could have done it and both of us have every reason to townread her) and focused on me. Kohai and Mag1c flipped town. If I'm the GF, Magoroth's result would have said there were 0 scum on the lynch. I'm in a similar position to Mag1c last DP where the circumstances required for me to be scum are rather specific: I could have manipulated Wryly's result (she copped me innocent) and I would also have failed to manipulate Magoroth's result. In a game where there is apparently both a Cop and a Sensor, the idea that scum only has a response to one (the Redirector he accuses me of being wouldn't do anything against a Sensor) is pretty ridiculous. By contrast, Magoroth has no results on him, and thus has the potential to be just about anything, including a GF.


“I cannot possibly GF"

First off, I’m going to start by saying nothing you say matters to me personally because it’s obviously not designed to convince me, I know you’re scum because otherwise Wryly would’ve hammered me. It’s my job to convince her to make the right decision, and I can do that by 1) defending myself and convincing her I’m Town, and 2) discrediting you when you’re out to discredit me. Which you are doing. By doing the following: claiming the circumstances are EXTREMELY specific for you to be scum. This is just something you made up. Who cares how “specific” the circumstances for you to be scum have to be? This is manipulation. You are NOT saying you aren’t scum, you are saying that you should not be scum. No 1. you are not even flat out saying “I’m not scum”, you are saying “I cannot be scum”, which is not only a lie (I could be a scum from Wryly’s perspective and even admitted as such), it is also manipulation. Someone who isn’t scum would just state it, scumbag. You’re not doing it. I will flat out do it, as I’ve already done it before: I AM NOT SCUM.


“The idea that scum only has a response to one is pretty ridiculous"


Sensor is kinda hit or miss, my guess is you guys were told a Sensor existed and were careful not to vote together. That renders my results less useful, but still 100% reliable (as in the information is guaranteed to be factual).


From a setup perspective, Bleeder + BG doesn’t really make much sense, and I said as much (but at the time it was because I thought the Bleeder role card was possibly tailored). What does make sense is to give Town two roles that are kinda meh (Tracker + Cop), and one real investigative (me).


Redirector further makes sense because most roles in this game that belong to Town, that are of actual consequence, like Hated, Sensor, and Governor, cannot be manipulated. Redirector is very obviously meant to deal with the Cop and the Tracker. Tracker is less relevant because you guys have plenty of roles to make us doubt results - like that Tailor thing, Ninja and Redirector. It’s pretty in-theme for this deception heavy setup, for scum to have so many ways of messing with us. Well, obviously with the Exception of the Governor, Hated and Sensor. These roles all share the same theme - we deal with lynches. My role fits with the setup, you’re a random bodyguard in a setup with a fucking Bleeder, 9p, Cop/Tracker with Ninja. My role fits far better than yours does.


"Second, I made the case very clearly yesterday that my scumread on Magoroth was chiefly mechanical. I said that my behavioral read and only my behavioral read on Magoroth was town. Magoroth is new to the site, so I've been taking every behavioral read with a big grain of salt. "


Yes, you said this before and I already replied to it. Behaviour trumps mech every time. I townread the Cop even though mechanically I should’ve scumread her because Cop + Sensor + Tracker is ridiculously imbalanced. Well, that’s what I thought at the time anyway. It’s not that imbalanced with Redirector + Ninja/Tailor.


"But let's talk about that mechanical read. Magoroth responds to one element of that mechanical read by arguing that Thoth could have been scum. He obviously wasn't. Given that Wryly hasn't voted yet when she could just get a mislynch and win the game now if she was scum, and given Thoth's flip, it's clear Magoroth was dead wrong with regards to his argument of there being a secret Framer. Somehow he turns that around on me and says it was TMI to point out that that highly specific scenario was unlikely? Or that mentioning the Redirector, something Mag1c spent a lot of time talking about last DP, is somehow a TMI slip? Really?"


No, I was wrong with the specifics, Framer, I told you I’m not very good at setup spec yesterday. I was still right about scum having manipulation roles. Wanna know why I was wrong? Because I was Town. I think it’s a braindead inference to see you = Town by Wryly means there must be a redirector, and if I was scum I could’ve made that argument instead of going off about Framers. And yes it is a TMI slip because you’re redirector :)


"Magoroth also talks about is balance in this game if his role is Sensor and he's not doing himself any favors here. He points to the setup of "Sensor/Tracker/Cop vs Ninja+Redirector" and says it's "somewhat balanced" even though the odd role out there is... the Sensor. Ninja and Redirector do jack shit to a Sensor. He also doesn't address the big gaping hole in that setup, something he seemed to be acknowledging multiple times last DP when he kept saying that the setup does not make sense if I'm scum (267273314338). This effort to try and justify a clearly unbalanced setup flies in the face of his own logic."


Yes, obviously I said this setup makes no sense if you’re scum, but that was because there was already a 100% guilty on my side on you. And I thought if you were scum you weren’t immune to detection, so I thought the setup had to be 100% legit, no Framer, no nothing. The answer, that I somehow didn’t think of is that you’re Redirector and had the power to clear yourself as Town by manipulating the Cop. I already said I’m not very good at setup speculation so your goal here is to twist my poor understanding of setup stuff and make it look like I’m scummy.


"Finally, he mentions the decision to kill Thoth. A couple of important elements here that he's glossing over. 


He forgets that I'm the BG and that he had good reason to believe I'd protect Wryly. Magoroth was very blatant last DP about me being his focus probably because Thoth would have been a much more difficult target to get lynched if it came down to the two of them. That's not to mention that, since he would have some means to manipulate Wryly's role, he was probably counting on her copping him and using that as leverage going into the final DP. "


In that case, I would leave everyone alive. Why force a 2v1 in which I’m sure to die? Thoth could’ve helped me because he trusted me more than you.


"Also, much as he's very focused on this lynch, he doesn't mention Kohai's NK NP2. As I pointed out last DP, that NK makes absolutely no sense for me, since it reduced POE based on Magoroth's results down to just me and Mag1c. He even called this out himself, saying how scum shooting within POE would automatically paint a target on them (449). The only person who stood to benefit from reducing POE was Magoroth because he ensured that the choices appeared obvious: just lynch these two and the game is over. Love the strategy, but if we're focused on WIFOM, Magoroth has plenty of reason to have performed both of these NKs."


Except I didn’t even trust my own results and was prepared to lynch outside the PoE yesterday? I literally still doubted my own results yesterday and was going “I think Thoth might be scum”, you are the one who convinced me Thoth couldn’t be scum yesterday! This looks more like TMI on your part that my results were correct yesterday, hoping to buy yourself some town cred that way, perhaps. Or maybe just arguing for the sake f arguing.


In what world do I discredit my own results if I’m trying to force a 2v2 vs you? I’m not even convinced killing Kohai is the correct decision for scum!me. I narrow the PoE, I’d rather keep it open and kill Thoth or Wryly. That way Town has little info.


You just pulled a big brain risky move, and I respect it, but you’re still scum.

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ISO #24 •••
--> @Wryly

So, Wryly, you’re the one who has to break the stalemate. You either believe me and we win, or you believe scumbag Whiteflame here and lynch me. If there’s anything you want me to answer, preferably none of his BS because he’s going to try to manipulate you, I’ll answer it.

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ISO #25 •••
--> @Wryly

By the way, I kinda told you to Lynch me yesterday and it wasn’t a bluff. Now we’re at LyLo and you have to somehow probably go against your intuition here and Lynch Whiteflame, then we both win. At the risk of being an ass, you were wrong about Mag1cman and Whiteflame, I tried to get you to vote Whiteflame yesterday. I should’ve tried to convince you harder yesterday, but I don’t like the possibility of being wrong so I gave it a rest and just voted Mag1cman. Now we’re stuck in this shitty situation we cannot get out of.

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ISO #26 •••
--> @Wryly

If you want me to enter a call for my defense, I will do so. But not if it’s vs Whiteflame. You should ask both of us to case ourselves as Town individually. Trivial for me because I know I’m Town, not so easy for scumbag Whiteflame here because he’s scum and he will probably have to try to discredit me, make something up, or throw some smoke and mirrors that doesn’t actually talk about himself but compare himself to me or one of the other players in the game (like Shining).

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ISO #27 •••

For the record, I will travelling tomorrow between 6am and roughly 4pm UTC, so I will not be available at that time.

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ISO #28 •••

Actually, 2-3PM UTC, but that doesn’t matter that much.

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ISO #29 •••
--> @Wryly

Alright, given the responses here aren't really engaging with my points so much as just telling me what I should be doing, I'll just talk to Wryly directly from here on out.


I never said it is impossible for me to be scum. I said that, mechanically, there's less reason to buy me as scum than there is to buy Magoroth as scum. And no, I don't think I have to state the words "I'm not scum" or "believe me and we win" as a means to convince you. You know both of us have incentive to make that case regardless of our alignment.


Magoroth's view of the setup has shifted substantially from last DP to this one. Even if the Bleeder flip is real (and given that Shining flipped Tailor, I'm doubtful), if you believe I'm scum, that means there is precisely one self-protective role in the game, and it's just a delayed death. That's it. You also believe, based on Magoroth's view of what I could be, that I'm wielding a Redirector as the sole means of responding to both a town Cop and Sensor, since - and again, he knows this - I cannot be the GF based on his result. So by this point, he's just assuming that his role, which he worried could be manipulated by scum, could never have been manipulated and scum had no responses to him... but that they did have a response to you. I get that he's admitted to not being very good at setup speculation, but the setups he's put together here do not seem balanced at all. And I recognize that he's putting a lot more stock into behavioral reads than I am, but given all the flips we have to inform it, mechanics are and have been my priority when it comes to evaluating Magoroth especially.


Most of the rest of what Magoroth says gets into what could have been optimal play based on the NKs, both of which he largely just dismisses as irrelevant because he claims he would have done something different. I laid out the case for why he'd have reason to make these choices. I don't see a response explaining why I was at all likely to perform the NK on Kohai when that would reduce POE, just a restatement of his own uncertainties regarding the Sensor role. If he wants to argue that he'd have preferred Thoth's presence, raising the threshold for a VTL and possibly resulting in a VTNL to extend the game by another DP, I guess that's a choice. If the choice to NK Thoth was suboptimal for him, I'd love to hear him explain how NKing Kohai helped me at all.


I'll leave it here for now. The ball is in your court.

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ISO #30 •••

How can it not shift substantially when I’m a bloody sensor, there’s a confirmed Cop, and he has a green check on the scum? Apparently Whiteflame is blatantly ignoring the fact that it HAS to shift substantially regardless of my alignment, if I’m town it obviously has to shift and he knows this, he’s just going for the “OH MY GOD MAGOROTH IS INCONSISTENT”, it’s called getting new information.


“There’s nothing for me to engage with"


It’s not really designed to engage with you, it’s designed to discredit the discreditor which is you, why would I engage with confirmed scum lmao?

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