Ted Lasso Mafia DP3

They may have had him marked earlier in the game for a kill as well

Now that I think about it, it could be endgame conditioning too. Kohai was hard townreading me

Endgame as in the final DP or two where the final lynch happens, not as in the thread after the game

Outing characters yesterday probably did help scum

So did softing the way we did. I half-sussed Kohai because he was the one who suggested we soft that way and it aided scum's ability to find Ted Lasso so much. Sometimes trying to progress the game just plays into scum's hand.

Now that I think about it, it could be endgame conditioning too. Kohai was hard townreading me

Point

The claims meta is always such a double edged sword

At the end of the day, my towncase is going to be the fact that I chose to pressure Shining over Wylted DP1, and stuck with him as my top sus until his lynch.

We figuring out Wryly tomorrow

Good night

Don’t let the frost bite

Gn and happy isoing

Did you mistype something? I was a part of the Shining lynch from the start. Not taking sole credit here, but I could’ve gone for Wylted DP1 and I went for Shining instead, which proved to be correct.

i kno but im not really scum reading u anyway, just pointing out it could have been a bus is all but it also could be real too

I’m up but I won’t have time to do it until lunch

If I’m looking for a prominent fake claim I’m not taking from a list of mostly minor characters. I’m going straight for coaches or players; mods usually leave out a few major characters in these games.

You had already softed into the "Other" category, so while I agree that a more optimal choice might have been to soft into a different category if you were scum, I wouldn't consider that a major factor. At this point, we're discussing what would be optimal play for scum, and considering I don't see either you nor Wryly's play as optimal in that respect, that aspect is a bit of a wash.

And as do your history with Shining, does that encompassing one of you getting the other lynched DP1? Pretty sure it doesn’t, and my history with any teammate is to distance some, not full-on hard bus. Absolutely no reason to bus Shining DP1 when I could’ve gone for Wylted and bussed Shining DP2 or later, at least securing a mislynch there and getting use of his redirector.

I've played with him a few times as scum. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that he and his partner would bus each other early, though DP1 is earlier than we usually do. I agree he could have coasted into DP2 on statements that he would get his activity up or that someone could test his role, especially given Wylted was a viable target at that point. I don't think you'd sacrifice him. I also don't think you'd go about it the way you did, since you were pretty early to sus him and hopped off and on that wagon a couple of times. If you were going to bus him for towncred, I don't think you'd hedge that much and then just leave a vote on him overnight.

”How much that point is in my favor” shouldn’t even be a question here; it’s 100%. Literally all of it.

Yeah, it's a solid point in your favor. Point taken.

I'll work on ISOs later when I get more of a chance to stare at my screen for something non-work related.

I await the isos

To make sure I'm covering my bases, I'll start with the easiest read: Banana.

The early Jamie Tartt claim already stood out as very townie (major character, likely CC), and the Popular + confirmation helped her case, as did a pretty obvious justification. Viewing it as SOP comes off as likely town, too. I just don't see a discussion with Shining yielding an early claim. I've been fooled by confirmed Popular scum before, though, so I'll keep digging. I think the pushback on Wylted's efforts to lynch her looked pretty townie as well, didn't get much of a rise out of her. I think the continued efforts to push back on Mag1c and get a claim last DP read mostly as suspicious town as well, though that's more NAI as I can see her trying to garner this info either way. Regardless, there's more here to support her claim than anyone else, so I'm going lock town and focusing on Wryly and Mag1c as my POE.

Wryly:

Early to softclaim, gave some early cover to Banana's SOP claiming her role. Early reads looked fine, null read on Shining might be a little off in hindsight. Showed hesitance to vote him, calling the VTL a sleepwalk, late to the lynch on both wagons. Was in the middle of the pack for the character claims, softed an "influential but not critical" role (does track). Similar push on Mag1c for the claim to what Banana did. Contributed on the Wylted lynch largely following along similar lines to me save a point about the lack of justification in his claim, which seemed like a fair thing to point out at the time.

Mag1c:

Suggested that the hidden Miller could just be Kohai. Given Kohai's flip, we know it wasn't him, but I think it was fair to surmise this, even if I didn't draw the same one (just because he and I worked that into my setup doesn't mean it's likely here). Early townread on Kohai, pretty strongly defended it. Pretty early softclaim. Spearheaded some of the testing of Banana's role, specifically asking Shining to do the final vote for confirmation. Considering everyone else who had been active aside from REF already had a vote on Banana and Shining had posted more recently, this made sense to me. Spent some time delving back into Banana's prior play with the Popular role before he started pushing on Shining for a claim. And that push wasn't just based on inactivity, something he also called out REF for. He specifically pointed to Shining's view that Kohai couldn't be the hidden Miller as odd and encouraged others to provide specific thoughts on Shining as well.

The end of DP1 was where he started surmising what the hell was going on and seemed just as confounded as anyone. Weird to say he didn't think it was the magistrate considering that someone died, but I chalk that up to confusion.

Start of DP2 got really upset about the massclaim effort, agreed to fullclaim this DP, basically came fully onboard with the Wylted lynch wagon, and gave some pretty thorough reads that made sense (some earlier reads from DP1 I didn't cover, but those were pretty short).

So, I'd say behaviorally, there's significantly more support for Mag1c being town than Wryly, in part due to more activity and more votes/associated reasoning to go off of, all of which suggest that he and Shining weren't aligned. Neither has a verifiable role. That would mean accepting that there are 3 Vanillas in this game, but I don't think that's implausible. We don't know what the balance looks like, but we do know that if Shining and his partner had gotten their pick for Ted Lasso wrong, town would have an entirely unkillable and easily confirmable player. That would make the game pretty swingy and I'm honestly not sure how Luna would try to balance it.

Mechanics-wise, what's bothering me is the existence of the Universal Back Up. The setup doesn't make a lot of sense with that role in play. We have a grand total of two PRs the Universal Back Up could have inherited - the Popular from Banana (which wouldn't matter past MYLO/LYLO, so it would be useless in most instances upon being inherited) and the Cop from Kohai. I guess he could have inherited the hidden Miller too, though that leaves us with an incredibly underpowered town where there was really only one inheritable role (the Cop) that could have benefited us in any meaningful way. Wryly's Activist isn't a tremendous boon, but it's at least something, a PR that could have been inherited and used. It makes more sense for Luna to have structured the game in a way that creates more opportunity for REF to be useful than not, and having 3 Vanillas is very limiting for his role.

So... yeah, I'm at a bit of an impasse here. I have two entirely separate cases for viewing Wryly and Mag1c as scum. I'm always tempted to go with mechanics, but there's a lot of behavioral information I can't ignore. Sorry if a lot of this is stream of consciousness, I'm still thinking this through as I type.

I've asked some questions of Luna and I'm less torn than I was. The Universal Back Up can just inherit a Vanilla role, so if I'd been the target of the first NK, REF would have just turned Vanilla. Also, if shots are used (say, Banana's Popular), then they would have been restored for REF when his role activated upon their death. It's still a little off just how likely it was for REF to turn Vanilla if there are truly 3 Vanilla players in this game, and it's surprising how limited the value of his role would have been with just 2 positive utility roles (Popular and Cop) and 1 negative utility role (hidden Miller) in play, but having a lot of fail states isn't as supportive of the existence of Wryly's role than I'd previously surmised and I don't want to focus too much on modpsych at this point anyway.

That tips the balance against Wryly in my book. I think she's scum.

Hey guys I’m at lunch but I’m not able to do the ISOs rn. I’ll do em when I get home

I have a hard time sussing Banana or Mag1c here, so my vote will probably be on whiteflame fwiw. The early full claim when scum were given no fake claims has made me townread Nana from the start, and Mag1c was pretty aggressive on Shining.

I wonder what the statistics are that I am facing yet another Shining/whiteflame pairing

I wonder what the statistics are that I am facing yet another Shining/whiteflame pairing

Considering our back-to-back scum pairing? I guess pigs can fly, definitely can’t argue it’s impossible. I’d say this game is night and day different from a couple of games back when we were scum together, but there’s always going to be some room to question that.

Heading home from work.

I'm tired man. New job makes mafia impossible for me to play. I might be able to mod but I think I'm done playing after this game

Can relate

Ascetic fits for Rojas. Shining is null for me.

Seems like we're just sleepwalking into a Shining lynch here, but I always sus Shining so I'm not gonna fight it much. Since scum were not given fake claims I'm guessing they'll be cautious and pick minor characters to claim, and Dani is a supporting character.

From null to "eh I'll go along" to the vote at the end of this DP. Increasing in scumread of Shining over the course of the DP. Not inherently scummy, kinda depends on comparison to Whiteflame's progression on Shining.

Just hadn't updated the thread to see whiteflame's hammer, lynch me for it if you want. My role is influential but not critical so if we're gonna mislynch we could do worse.

Activist/votebuyer is a great boon in late game, so I don't think it matches the description. Points for "lynch me if you want."

Anyway, still suspicious that Rebecca Welton would be a Vanilla and of there being no justification for it; my character has a justification. Banana's seems to as well. Anyone willing to weigh in on whether their character has a role justification?

Wonder if the hidden Miller will have a justification. I guess it could work for Rebecca? She seems like the antagonist at first but (according to whiteflame, I was still in the middle of her arc) becomes a solid ally later on.

That doesn't get me past "passive at best" though. Maybe I'm overthinking it.

Has the answer right in front of her face and she goes back on it. Admittedly foolish of us all to ignore this (perhaps we could've avoided lynching him if we paid more attention), but if you see it like Wryly did and still go to lynch him, yikes.

In the future I don't think I'll be agreeing to "low activity" games even though it was nice of Luna to make an exception for us busies. Definitely enjoy the game less when I invest less time in it. I miss chewing over the details and rereading the day phases.

Comes across as genuine. Pretty much just vibes.

Shrug. I didn't. I think it's a legitimate stance that once a mass claim is started, it should be finished, otherwise it defeats the purpose, exposing info about town but potentially letting scum slip through the net. However when whiteflame brought up some valid points that we had a better target and if we were wrong you'd be soon to full claim next DP anyway, I acquiesced.

I'll grant this. Not townreading this, just not scumreading it either.

So did softing the way we did. I half-sussed Kohai because he was the one who suggested we soft that way and it aided scum's ability to find Ted Lasso so much. Sometimes trying to progress the game just plays into scum's hand.

Oh this is horrendous. If you even half sus someone for this, you shouldn't be pushing for that same info as hard they were.

as for the claim: It's still hard to buy scum has an incentive to claim that. But she did claim first, meaning she doesn't know what is and isn't safe and perhaps just defaulted to her role. Kinda weird that she was claiming right away after it was agreed I was supposed to be the first DP; like she felt some internal pressure to not be the last to claim.

There's a real chance we had Shining + Wryly for a fake claim blunderfest

For the record both town redirector and ascetic were terrible claim options for Shining. I just personally feel trying to boldly spin the redirector as town was the better option. I'm shocked Shining went with the bluff he did

Vote Count:

..... - 0/3- ....

Almost everything Whiteflame posted DP1 was NAI. Wylted's case against him was bad.

If we're getting a claim, I guess we could do worse than Shining since he just hasn't been very active. No one's behavior has really stood out to me as odd.

I won't put you at L-1, but consider yourself there. Full claim when you get on.

Hmmm... that does make some sense for his character. Ascetic claims rub me the wrong way by default since I've seen a lot of instances where they've been used as fake claims by scum, so I'm hesitant to townread you based on that.

Honestly I do like Whiteflame's progression on Shining better than Wryly's. It really does just align with him sussing Shining and Wylted and going for Wylted as priority #1. He tried to get claims out of both. Normally I'd sus choosing Wylted over Shining, but he clearly wanted both and it's a lot better than whatever Wryly was doing.

From where I'm sitting at least, we have a good lynch target in Wylted, so it doesn't bother me as much if we don't get all the character claims on the table. If we do lynch Wylted and he somehow flips town, everyone will be expected to full claim next DP because we'll be at MYLO.

Kinda similar to Kohai in being okay with having no claims now that the lynch is decided.

As for starting the mass character claims with Kohai: He also started character softs with Kohai. Honestly fits a theme that Whiteflame is just listening to Kohai's ideas rather than being nefarious. I'll forgive it.

That recent analysis is pretty good. Hard for even Whitelfame to fake, the attention to detail.

One more thing: Whiteflame was last to claim. He could've claimed doctor or something but he went for vanilla.

this is just a fancy way of saying no one has voted for anybody, correct?