Solo Leveling Mafia - DP1

Weren't you the guy who JUST SUGGESTED WE ALL SOFT?!

No, I am the guy who suggested that we discuss whether or not we should soft

The point of the Mason comment isn't saying that they don't have chats, it's saying that we're not assuming mafia aren't already in them and strategizing in private.

I specifically think that the guild leaders should out who they have already recruited and who they will recruit at night so that we can maximize the number of recruited players for the night where we agree to not recruit at all and use all of our actions at the same time. Wasting recruits by targeting the same people means less roles get activated on the big night.

I get the thinking here, as Guilds shouldn't be cannibalizing each other if we want to avoid getting too much into the weeds of "Guild vs. Guild" wincons. I'm also with you that I don't really care about it. A town win is the priority, full stop. Both Guilds would need to agree to it.

Anyway me, pie, lunatic and Thoth agreed to lynch you in the scum chat last game for some reason. We were probably going to stay with that course of action unless you became obviously town or somebody else appeared to scummy to ignore and alas Kohai appears so I wouldn't read too much into Pies reasoning to fuck with you

I don't think I agreed to that lol

Lunatic

Not opposed to this, I will have to think about the pros and cons a little longer though to make sure this is optimal.

It is optimal. If it's not then blame the loss on me. You modded transformers mafia. Have some faith.

VTL Thoth

Vote Count

Kohai 3/9 - Mag1cman, ILikePie5, wylted

Mag1cman 2/9 - Casey_Risk, Rex

Pie 1/9 - Mestari

Mestari 1/9 - Alyssa

Thoth 1/9 - Kohai

Nah I liked the Rick and Morty reference too lol

Damn, we've talked more about Rick and Morty than the actual show this theme covers. And for now at least, I'm good with that.

I disagree. First off, you're potentially activating more roles for town.

At the price of waiving ones that have already been activated. A little now can be worth a lot later.

Second, you're exchanging more information in the Guild chats, which can allow for a more coordinated plan of attack each NP. That can be a negative if scum or a TP is present, but speaking from experience having recruited Luna in a recent game as scum, being stuck in a chat where you're expected to divulge information and regularly interact can lead to some pretty easy mistakes.

It can definitely lead to easy mistakes, but that's just one side of the equation.

It becomes a whole lot harder to hide in a group of, say, 3-5 in a Discord server vs. the whole 17 person game on here.

Agreed

Third, I'm also not convinced "that Mafia have zero wiretaps now". Wylted and Luna went into their recruitments blind. They could absolutely have recruited scum, and especially during DP1, that's going to be harder to determine since there's so little to go off of. The numbers make it less likely than when they recruit more people, but those recruitments will at least be informed by behavior. So, no, I don't think we should assume their channels are clean.

I know. It's very unlikely, but possible, that they recruited all four scum. But the more they recruit, the higher the probability of at least one scum in each guild grows. (Now I've been nerd-sniped by calculating the probability that at least one scum was recruited on night 0. I know how to do it if they couldn't recruit the same person, but that makes it harder.)

Yeah, I'm going to stick on Pie for now. He's pivoting between targets he sees as easy, not making reads directly tied to player behavior, shifting the burden of accuracy from himself to a confirmed townie to dissolve himself off accountability. It's giving either scum, or if he's town it's giving FT vibes. What I mean by that is refusing to ever accept being wrong and positioning himself to claim he wasn't wrong if it was clear he was. So if you tell me it's FT in a trench coat I'd buy he's town, but I'm happy with where my vote is for the evening.

Not necessarily defending pie here, but this is in character for him. Pie tends to focus heavily on mechanics and is a very "meta driven" lyncher. Sometimes it works well, he is the highest elo player. But we are working with a very diverse player set this game, so I am not sure how useful this playstyle will be here with so many DDO vets.

If I correctly understand how guild recruitment works, this could give an interesting game-theoretic solution: If both guilds don't recruit anyone from now on, they will have the same number of members and should all win together. I will ask Mikal whether or not a tie in members lets the guild leader win.

I had two succesful recruits where wylted only had one so far, so I am already beating him. Also I would have to trust him not playing to his wincon and him trust me for this to work.

I say don't recruit anyone to make it more likely they will all be dead when the game ends so they all have 0 members

We might have already recruited mafia. And two we won't have any power roles if we just don't recruit.

Man, if I were scum here and Mestari and Pie were both town, I would be living the dream vacation. The two fearkill targets going mano-a-mano while I get to kick my feet up. This concerns me.

You pointing this out concerns me.

Have you already claimed who you recruited?

Do you get a second try if one of your recruit targets turns out to be inrecruitable

*unrecruitable

Lunatic

I had two succesful recruits where wylted only had one so far, so I am already beating him. Also I would have to trust him not playing to his wincon and him trust me for this to work.

You don't even know that you are beating him. If you recruited 1 mafia and he didn't, you're tied.

Now chop chop and tell us who you recruited and who you are going to recruit.

Neither of them are words, why did I correct myself

Do I know Thoth from DDO?

I know how to do it if they couldn't recruit the same person, but that makes it harder.

On second thought, it's not that much harder. The probability they recruited at least one scum on night 0 is about 3/5. (16 * 15)^2 = 57,600 possible recruitment offers, of which (12 * 11)^2 = 17,424 invite only townies to both guilds. We should act under the assumption that Mafia have an interior line into at least one guild.

Do I know Thoth from DDO?

Possibly under a different name if you were active circa 2011. Funny story.

At the price of waiving ones that have already been activated. A little now can be worth a lot later.

Assuming they already have good PRs that they can use early, sure. Also, assuming they have unlimited use of their roles.

It can definitely lead to easy mistakes, but that's just one side of the equation.

I'm not arguing that there's no value for scum to be in these chats. There clearly is value to getting insight into what at least one town player (the Guild Leader) is doing, let alone another person.

I know. It's very unlikely, but possible, that they recruited all four scum. But the more they recruit, the higher the probability of at least one scum in each guild grows. (Now I've been nerd-sniped by calculating the probability that at least one scum was recruited on night 0. I know how to do it if they couldn't recruit the same person, but that makes it harder.)

That's actually impossible. Luna already confirmed that the other Guild Leader tried to recruit him. So at worst, 3 scum have been recruited. If there is one scum, then the call is already coming from inside the house. Recruiting more bears limited risk after that point. That's all beside the point I was making, though. I think both Guild Leaders need to do their due diligence to come up with good targets for recruitment based on behavior and, if players put them out there, claims. I don't think there should be a blanket "this is dangerous, do not proceed" placed over the possibility of recruitment.

What name?

ROFL

To be fair knowing pie's scortched earth play style i was going to be forced to claim this dp anyway

For once, I don't think this is a game where Pie's usual commanding presence means much of anything. There are some big dogs in this once.

Anyway, I'm really tired and I'm going to call it a night here.

No, I am the guy who suggested that we discuss whether or not we should soft

Again. Why?

Why are we talking so much about softs? God gave us Viagra for a reason.

It is optimal. If it's not then blame the loss on me. You modded transformers mafia. Have some faith.

I do not think I modded transformers mafia, but anyways I am down. I recruited Helz and Rex hoping they would both be less likely to be recruited by the other guild recruiter. Rex I am mod psyching hard as town despite mikal saying not to read into him being added late, since everyone got their role pm's the day prior I am assuming (at least I did). Rex for some reason hasn't joined the mason chat despite posting in the day phase, so I am assuming he was also recruited by wylted and is just trying to decide which guild to join. Could be wrong there though.

Claims List

Wylted - Choi Jong-In - Leader of the Hunters

Alysa - ?? - ??

WF ?? - ??

Helz ?? - ??

Luna - Baek Yoonho - Leader of the white tiger guild -- Recruited helz and rex n0

Banana ?? - ??

Kohai - Kohai - VT / Ascetic upon being recruited

Pie ?? - ??

Mharm ?? - ??

Wyrly ?? - ??

Skep ?? - ??

Thoth - ?? probably himself based on his not so soft --

Supa ?? - ??

Max ?? - ??

Casey Risk ?? - ??

Mestari ?? - ??

Shining ?? - ??

You are TUF, right?