Solo Leveling Mafia - DP1

Yes, but you need to post reads

k working on it sorry had a busy day

One isn't confirmable yet, but it could become slightly confirmable depending how things play out, in the sense that someone who claims a protective role when there was no NK last night is confirmable. The other is kinda-sorta-not-really confirmable, but it would be risky to disclose because it could heavily narrow down night-kill PoE for scum, and anyway it wouldn't fully confirm me yet.

Just had a thought: Before my claim Thoth seemed to hint he knew some players may have themselves as their character. This is verified by my claim. That said how would he know this based on his claim?

You need to cut back on your drinking. Consider this an intervention. Mikal said this crystal-clearly in the OP and on Discord.

Just had a thought: Before my claim Thoth seemed to hint he knew some players may have themselves as their character. This is verified by my claim. That said how would he know this based on his claim?

This was stated in the discord during the pre game question phase by the mod himself.

Point well taken

Again point taken. I admit I didnt really read discord as I typically don’t follow discord all that much.

Ok I’m off to bed for real tbis tkme. Gonnna sober up a bit

It says this in the OP too.

I'd like elaboration on Casey, Kohai, and Alyssa

Sure.

Casey - Primarily gut read combined with the fact that I feel like she hasn’t done anything to progress the game. She joined the Thoth wagon and then the mini wagon on VTNL

Kohai - The pressure on Mestari seemed opportunistic to me. I also hate his claim. Ascetic is weak and often a scum claim as you know.

Alyssa - The defense of Thoth feels contrived. As if she knows he’s town and trying to justify it. It also doesn’t sit right with me that she ignored 11 pages and just straight voted Thoth in her second post for “reasons mentioned.” Just feels different compared to the previous game I was in with her

Assuming everyone’s Pr doesn’t click in until they are recruited what information do we get when more than half our PRs are unable to act

Not everyone can, sure, but we still get info from the ones that can. At least Helz and Thoth don't need to be recruited.

Though I have to admit, it was only after reading this that I realized that both guilds would probably choose to recruit over using abilities, which does change my analysis a little bit. I still think it might be better to stay on odds, but I guess I'm a little less opposed to going for a lynch today.

I for one am super interested in hearing your thoughts.

Part of me wants to argue for an Airmax push, but I'm not confident going there for inactivity due to Passover. If we're going to go that right, I'd pick Shining. But I would really rather go after someone who has been active.

Just for NP1. What about the future?

I never once suggested that we VTNL on any future days. I'm sorry that you lack reading comprehension.

I'm clueless as to why Alyssa mounted that defense, but it also doesn't make sense to me as something she would say as scum. If she's scum and you're town, she knows she doesn't have to worry that you flipping scum would implicate her.

No, but it doesn't mean she wasn't trying defend a known town (or at least non-scum) player for potential town cred.

I never once suggested that we VTNL on any future days. I'm sorry that you lack reading comprehension.

I meant what if there’s a Vig shot or another killing mechanism in future nights/days, we’d be back to odd even if we lynch someone here.

There are too many unknowns about how quickly people will die to use odd/even as an argument for VTNL. The only you can make for VTNLing is giving more time for guilds to recruit and activate power roles. I was strongly against this earlier, but I'm down to reconsider knowing that only two of the four possible recruits happened last night.

The only case * you can make

Thoth is still on my scum radar for his behavior post 'slip'. He hasn't done much to dissuade that opinion yet. Don't know enough about the claim he presented to weigh in too much on if it makes sense or not, but I'll defer to the opinion of people who've watched the show that it doesn't make sense.

Beyond that we're getting a little speculative given the narrative of the DP has been heavily focused on Thoth/Myself/Inactives. Slight scum tingles from Pie potentially trying to capitalize on an opportunistic push against me, but the rest of his behavior lines up with his typical behavior regardless of affiliation, so I'm open to this being wrong.

If I have to strictly pick three, I think there's merit to potentially picking into Casey's pushing of Luna to be more open with recruit intentions as scum motivated, but beyond that they're pretty null.

As far as town goes, small town read to Mestari via things I've already said. If there's anyone who I'm willing to sheep just because I'm busier this game than last with IRL things, I know a town!Mestari is capable of 1v9ing a game, so short of good evidence being presented to make me question my gut read I'm fine tossing him in the town pile for now.

I also get town vibes from Kohai, though I want more definitive stances and analysis from them before I'm willing to lock that one in. But overall they're outwardly agreeing with a lot of the points I agree with, so at least from a mindset perspective there's reason to like that slot.

And, again if you're forcing me to defend three here, I'm willing to put you in the town pile for now. Given the clear air of suspicion around my slot, there's plenty of justification for you just ignoring my analysis and focusing on collaborating with people in your town pile. The fact that you're seeking to engage with me makes me think you're genuinely trying to find scum.

Casey - Primarily gut read combined with the fact that I feel like she hasn’t done anything to progress the game. She joined the Thoth wagon and then the mini wagon on VTNL

I don't think I ever actually voted for Thoth, I just agreed he was sus.

I meant what if there’s a Vig shot or another killing mechanism in future nights/days, we’d be back to odd even if we lynch someone here.

Technically true, but that's always a possibility anyway. So what?

I want to come up with a list of top lynch targets, but I'm rapidly losing the ability to keep my eyes open tonight, so I'll endeavor to do so tomorrow. At the very least, for whatever it's worth, I'm caught up on the DP.

With regards to Airmax, much as it could be a Passover thing, he does just tend to be absent for long stretches of time. Love him, but this is just how he plays mafia. I'm not a big fan of just straight up lynching an inactive player, but it might at least be more useful than just VTNLing since we'd have a flip to work with next DP. That being said, if we have an even somewhat common scumread, that's more valuable both as information along the lines Helz has already mentioned (who joins the wagon and who signals intent to do so are important metrics and harder to read when it's just a default lynch due to inactivity) and it's based on something more than absence.

Alright, that's it for me. Later.

I don't think I ever actually voted for Thoth, I just agreed he was sus.

Essentially the same thing.

Technically true, but that's always a possibility anyway. So what?

So your even/odd argument holds no weight

I'm clueless as to why Alyssa mounted that defense, but it also doesn't make sense to me as something she would say as scum. If she's scum and you're town, she knows she doesn't have to worry that you flipping scum would implicate her. If you're both scum she'd never say something so transparent and susworthy

Coming back to this - I do actually agree with the last sentence here. I think it's unlikely that Alyssa would tie herself to Thoth in such a conspicuous way if they were both scum, especially since Thoth was the center of negative attention.

Behaviorally, I still don't like either of them, and I'd be surprised if they were both town. But I'd also be surprised if they were both scum.

So your even/odd argument holds no weight

This is such a stupid-ass thing to say. That's not how strategy works. You do what works best on average, taking all information into account. The fact that there are other possibilities isn't the point.

Exactly. Why would we wanna tell scum exactly who has activated abilities. Makes zero sense

Because there's more value to activating as many abilities as possible than hiding who has them. As we recruit more it becomes near certainly that mafia is in both guilds. Trying to hide recruits from the mafia assumes we only ever recruit town and risks both guilds recruiting the same player, activating less roles.

My ability is more than a simple mason recruit. It's literally a factor in determining my win condition. Meaning I not only need to have a bigger group then wylted to even be eligible to win, I can't have any mafia inside this group either. So it makes literally no sense to recruit people who I scum read unless I wanted to actually game throw, because if he is lying about being unrecruitable, we learn the same thing we do from just straight up lynching him.

Also, I didn't wanna say this because I know it would set thoth off on an "I told you so rant" but I 100% agree with whiteflame that his claim isn't all that great. Jin Woo's is a major character, but she doesn't really align with what the theme seems to be. Like in this universe there is no reason a guild would recruit her, shes a basic human with no powers. I don't get the role justification because she isn't unrecruitable for any power related reason, she's unrecruitable because she would be absolutely useless to any guild. She shouldn't be anything other than a vanilla in this type of a set up. And the scum slip is too much to overlook as well.

Point taken about your guild leader considerations, but if neither you or wylted are inclined to verify his claim (understandable, given you'd essentially be handing over the decision of recruit to him), we're back to square one on him.

I didn't realize hunters had to have supernatural abilities in the series. Hmm. I'll need to do some theme research and consider this.

Understood. You said you wanted to ask me some questions and wanted me to be around to interact with you. So what would you like to know?

understandable, given you'd essentially be handing over the decision of recruit to him

That only applied on night 0

I wanted you to elaborate on the reason for placing your vote on me. At the time, the reasoning you provided was...weird in terms of justifying pressure and so I wanted to get some clarity as to what I was being pressured for.

Sure.

Casey - Primarily gut read combined with the fact that I feel like she hasn’t done anything to progress the game. She joined the Thoth wagon and then the mini wagon on VTNL

Kohai - The pressure on Mestari seemed opportunistic to me. I also hate his claim. Ascetic is weak and often a scum claim as you know.

Alyssa - The defense of Thoth feels contrived. As if she knows he’s town and trying to justify it. It also doesn’t sit right with me that she ignored 11 pages and just straight voted Thoth in her second post for “reasons mentioned.” Just feels different compared to the previous game I was in with her

Danke.

I get the Kohai read, but if Casey has failed to progress the game significantly, that doesn't particularly distinguish her from me, Rex, Banana, etc. Alyssa's "he could have learned it from Mikal" argument continues to be a puzzler.

I could possibly get behind an Alyssa lynch, but with three scummates talking in his ear, it's harder for me to believe Kohai would have a lackluster fake claim. If you were on his scum team, wouldn't nailing down his fake claim be the first thing you'd do? You'd know he would almost certainly be pressured for a claim DP1, and it would have to look good.