Solo Leveling Mafia - DP1

Also, if you weren't aware, earlier in the DP Thoth referred to Mestari as a fearkill target, prompting an inquiry into how Thoth knew this, considering he's never played with Mestari before. He defended himself by saying he'd heard Helz say on Discord that Helz had done his doctoral thesis on Mafia Theory or some such, and then he just confused Mestari and Helz. This was met with skepticism, and there is still prominent suspicion that Thoth learned the tidbit from scumchat. Since Alyssa is one of the few players who knows Mestari well enough to have that information, she is also being sussed.

This is such a stupid-ass thing to say. That's not how strategy works. You do what works best on average, taking all information into account. The fact that there are other possibilities isn't the point. 

It is a point when there are 16 other people playing the game. In a 9p game, sure, we would VTNL, but the odds of Vig/similar are far higher in a 17p game. Plus you don’t know if a TP even exists, which changes the calculus as well.

Ok thanks for the tl;dr. I am looking for behaviors and my skimming at 1am is definetly not helping. Unrecruitable is fair but I don't necessarily see that as confirmed town, no?

Noted. I hate the idea of outside behavior being involved in a game and I don't really put any value into that but something to obviously take note of

Because there's more value to activating as many abilities as possible than hiding who has them. As we recruit more it becomes near certainly that mafia is in both guilds. Trying to hide recruits from the mafia assumes we only ever recruit town and risks both guilds recruiting the same player, activating less roles.

If scum have activating abilities, the strategy fails anyways. And for Luna/Wylted to recruit properly, everyone who is themselves needs to claim it, and that in itself reduces scum’s POE.

Ok thanks for the tl;dr. I am looking for behaviors and my skimming at 1am is definetly not helping. Unrecruitable is fair but I don't necessarily see that as confirmed town, no?

It's not. Only way to verify it is to have one of the leaders try to recruit him, but then they'd be wasting a whole NP and might lose the race.

I get the Kohai read, but if Casey has failed to progress the game significantly, that doesn't particularly distinguish her from me, Rex, Banana, etc. Alyssa's "he could have learned it from Mikal" argument continues to be a puzzler. 

Difference with REF is that Luna recruited him and there are no indications he scumreads him. I don’t see anything notable regarding him anyways.

With Banana, her inactivity means she can’t inherently advance the game. Casey has been on and responding, but not really advancing the game.

I could possibly get behind an Alyssa lynch, but with three scummates talking in his ear, it's harder for me to believe Kohai would have a lackluster fake claim. If you were on his scum team, wouldn't nailing down his fake claim be the first thing you'd do? You'd know he would almost certainly be pressured for a claim DP1, and it would have to look good.

My theory is that for scum, the safest thing to character claim is yourself cause you know for a fact that nobody else has that character. And why would Mikal give Kohai as a fake character claim.

Noted. Also as of note as well, his sister, which I’m assuming in Jin-Ah, is not a hunter at all in the story and never becomes one

I am still a bit skeptical of Thoth at this point. I originally pointed out his screcity of what he was doing and trying to soft and then the hard claim right away with an unrecruitable seems weird in this. Also based on the tl;dr wryly gave me, it seems like Thoth is claiming Jin-Ah, which is someone who is never a hunter and just an ordinary person

everyone else is still null, except for Casey but I haven't evaluated her yet. I still need to do that.

I would like to hear these thoughts as well

But he set up the soft for people to out just themselves, with the mechanics of the game with people being themselves and characters who would probably be hunters, it is not unreasonble to look onto suspicion of that claim

Right now based on some of my gut reads, I think I have a strong FoS on Thoth at the moment.

I feel like everyone is null. I am a bit worried with whiteflame because he seems to kind of chim in and go on suprts of thought then exit. Almost as if he is laying low to avoid being noticed or stand out in anyway. But this definetly ways less consider the nature of this game being a 17 person game

Banana gave some pretty good reads with some comprehensive reasoning behind the reads and caught up really well, honestly, probably better than me. Banana is a newer player and I feel like for newer players when they get in big games like this, they tend to lean back a bit and not really think and act. But I like banana's assertiveness in this game overall and I townread them

Those are my two biggest reads. I think I have Mesterami as a slight town read based on their entrance to the game and such but I think it fizzled a bit but I like the approach they took. Everyone is probably a null because of behavior or always scum (Pie)

Thoth is still my strongest scumread. I get that Whiteflame says it's not likely to be a fake claim for being so obscure, but then we have to ask why he has something so obscure as town. I still hate the behavior there.

It’s honestly an SOP claim, especially considering the guild leaders are mod confirmed town. Mechanically, it makes sense for scum to get that role and use it to manipulate

He would be my lynch here but 1. he has claimed a role that can be tested. 2. if he is scum, he only buys at most 1 DP. 

I don’t think he ever said it was affiliation confirmable.

May be 0 DPs bought in practice. I didn't like the math on Mestari's idea to vtnl multiple times, but with no NK, a single vtnl is pretty good. VTNLing here is basically just extending DP1, but with a halftime for night actions (and hence info from said night actions); we still have 17 heading into DP2.

VTNL is dumb

I like #814 from Banana, though I’d like everyone to reread it in close detail and see if yall can see what I see. The observation imo is weak in terms of AI, but in the future could be depending on what happens

I said earlier that one of my abilities is potentially kinda-sorta-confirmable, or, if it isn't now, then it could be depending on how things play out. Let's say that I claimed information about your guild that I couldn't have known unless I knew it from an ability or shared scum chat with your recruit. If I did, do you trust your recruits enough that you would see this as confirming me, or would you suspect a mole? Just a yes/no question.

Whats the end goal of this question?

Are you kidding me? Early distancing is the best way to sell a bus. It's literally what I just did with wylted last game. 

U know very well that I would quit if I was on a scum team with Kohai lol

Just as an FYI, your link in #1036 broke.

If thats being said about me I would like to clarify that no, I do not have a doctorate level cadential. I have studied mafia exhaustively but never in some formal academic thing.

I brought up Dmitry Davidoff who was a Russian psychologist and essentially developed the concept of Mafia to reflect how hidden information known by few can be identified in his doctorate classes.

Im going to go ahead and vote Thoth. Have not had the time to dig today that I wanted to and I naturally just crave eating people.

Feels like some subtle resistance to Thoth going over exists which is a good sign. If I can find the time I will dig and see if I can come up with a better target but I am comfortable sheeping a confirmed town.

Vote Thoth

VOTE COUNT

Thoth 6/9 - Kohai, Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex, Wylted, Helz

Kohai 1/9 - ILikePie5

VTNL ?/9

Updating the last vote count. Adding in the VTNL bit because I know some people are there but I guess it was not tracked? Will look at that when I get home (maybe) My simple solution hosting games on sites with no counter is to just require players to ping the host when they vote. Easy to reference but I am just kinda going with whatever you guys do until I am no longer 'that fucking new guy'. Just an idea

I will also mention I still have a bit of a balance boner for a 3p existing. An additional KPN also makes sense. Without it the game could go on to LYLO on day 8 which eh.. is a bit extra. The game could literally take a month so I firmly believe 3p exists and suspect that it may have a KPN. This game is going to be hard but I am quite excited.

@Thoth Sorry stepsis

Reads, fwiw

Thoth - I'm teetering on the fence. The Mestari slip and his explanation for it just feel lingeringly suspicious, but at the same time, I feel like scum!Thoth and his team could've come up with a better recovery. I feel like they could've come up with a better fake claim for him too, or that Mikal would've given him a better fake claim if full claims were provided. Neither of these are enough to overpower my doubts. I could be on board with a Thoth lynch. I'm in no hurry though.

Rex - Town lean. I'm with Lunatic that the late sub-in feels pretty good, and if Lunatic says he townreads Rex's claim I'm inclined to trust him for now.

Banana - I like her posted reads a lot, but it's all I really have to go on. She's busy in real life and this is a monster of a game to keep up with, so I'm willing to cut her some slack. Also, like her, I kind of always townread her and I can't really trust my gut.

Kohai - His claim feels shaky, but I'm in the same position I am with Thoth. His team should've come up with something better for him. If Kohai was on my team I'd be hammering out fake claim ideas minute one in scumchat. I'd know he'd be a guaranteed pressure target DP1.

Helz - His rejection of a recruitment offer and his behavior so far have earned him a town lean from me.

Mag1cman - I like his contributions so far, but he's a good enough player that I'd never have a bead on him this early if he was scum. I probably need to do an ISO of him.

Alyssa - The main item for me is her bizarre attempt to divert associative suspicion away from herself in the Thoth probe. I struggle to rationalize scum!Alyssa deploying that "he learned it from Mikal" defense. If she's scum and Thoth is town, she knows Thoth is going to flip town if he's lynched and it won't incriminate her in this "she told him in scumchat" theory, so why draw attention to herself with a strange desperate defense. And she can't have been trying to pocket him, as others have claimed. She's been scumreading him, for one, and also that's a crazy way to try to pocket someone; it contradicts the explanation Thoth himself gave. A pocket attempt would sound more like "I actually buy this, scum probably wouldn't have given an explanation this weak. Everyone goofs sometimes." I could more easily rationalize it as town!Alyssa trying to distance herself from someone she suspects is going to flip scum, honestly. And if they're both scum, I don't buy scum!Alyssa and scum!Thoth fumbling a recovery play or a distance play this bad. Regardless, my vibes are still sus vibes. Why would she say it at all? Thoth possibly learning it from Mikal explains literally none of the data.

Pie, whiteflame, Casey - These players are all null for me behaviorally. Pie has just been going around smashing things with a hammer and grunting "POE, POE", which is completely normal and NAI for him. whiteflame has been providing seamless sanitized analysis that is impossible to either townread or scumread, as per uzhe. I've played few games with Casey, but her (still not sure on preferred pronouns) posts haven't tipped me one way or another.

Shining, Vader, Airmax - These players are all null due to inactivity.

Now I will probably be killed, but my sacrifice will not be in vain. I will go down as a super hero, as a legend as some sort of saint even. My guild will carry on and I will be the wind beneath their wings

Om Shanti 🙏

And my dumbass did not update the number

VOTE COUNT

Thoth 7/9 - Kohai, Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex, Wylted, Helz

Kohai 1/9 - ILikePie5

VTNL ?/9

test #814

Forgot Mestari. His gripes and analyses so far feel towny, but if he's as experienced as signs indicate it could easily be an act. Null.

Did you try to make the number a link? You just type out "#814" and it automatically makes it a hyperlink, if you add a url on your own it might mess it up.

It's time to dump the whole purse out brochaco

Another point is that as scum Thoth has a tendency towards overextravagant, indulgent fake claims that blow up in his face.

How long is the DP?

Another point is that as scum Thoth has a tendency towards overextravagant, indulgent fake claims that blow up in his face.

You think he yolo'd his own fake claim idea without consensus from his team then? And that Mikal did not provide fake role claims?