Solo Leveling - DP2

why would she claim the first part of the role, of being immune to one lynch? if she was scum it's probably? more likely she just, doesn't claim that part, get "lynched", then scramble for players to find anohter majority

She was in a spot where she was gonna be forced to claim anyway.

Alyssa 7/9 - wylted, luna, casey, shining , alyssa, kohai, Vader

Awesome 1/9 - helz

Town

Lunatic

Wylted

Shining

Lean Town

Helz

Mestari

magic

Vader

Alyssa

I feel like everyone feels like something is off about Alyssa. The thing I am thinking about is how her first role works and how they described it, but maybe I am just stupid. Alyssa is however is REALLY experienced mafia player. I think more than a few times they had to have been up against the wall defending themselves and even for stupid reasons. Them giving up is odd. Also, as I believe it was Lunatic who said it, Alyssa seemingly decided to volunteer her character and role. Hard scum, but her giving up is giving me a bit of pause.

Anyone else not mentioned is more or less null, but I am interested in Pie regardless of how this lynch flips.

Actually I just noticed Pie isn't voting Alyssa.

Pie was but the votes were reset. Pie hasn’t put his vote back on Alyssa

I did see him talk about how sus Alyssa is or whatever so its not like hes sleeping.

I have some thoughts for sure. My top scum read was scum and I didn’t even have to get mad! Yay.

I have a full list but right I like Wryly for the most part but have some suspicions on Whiteflame but I’ll go more into it more

I question scum!Thoth putting any of his scummates in a fake POE.

I kind of have a good town read on Banana. I think there perspective comes off super townie to me on 270. Banana isn’t a noob but definetly has not played in wild games like this and I feel like there claim of a “confirmable usually town role” comes off as a new player getting insight. I also think they have pretty solid reads from what I’m seeing as well. I also don’t think Banana would hard town their partner here tbh because I bet there would be pushback in the chat

I really don’t have a good read on Kohai tbh. I am always just kind of traumatized lynching him because I feel like we do so many times in games and he ends up flipping but at this rate with us already getting 1 scum, we definetly can afford a mislynch versus if we lynched town last DP. Not saying we should mislynch, but mislynch wouldn’t hurt as badly as it would’ve if we hit town dp1

I don’t like vote jumping unless it’s necessary and it’s my final read or I won’t be on to put my final vote

I'm here. I'll finish the last 400 or so posts from last DP then catch up here. I've read a couple of pages of this DP. A few notes,

1) Don't pop Alyssa's popular yet if we haven't already done so. If Alyssa is scum and knows she's getting lynched this DP then it could be a gambit to end this DP early.

2) Kohai saying they started the wagon on Thoth is a joke. This isn't really a point of discussion, just an observation.

3) Night kill going forward is between Lunatic, Wylted, and myself, probably exclusively until the 3 of us are dead. Make of that what you will.

1) Don't pop Alyssa's popular yet if we haven't already done so. If Alyssa is scum and knows she's getting lynched this DP then it could be a gambit to end this DP early.

Too late

Right now here are my following reads at the moment. Non mentions are null or are mod confirmed

Town Read

Banana - I said why I town read Banana before but they came in with insights and caught up well. That 270 post feels so town to me for the reasons I stated before and like I said, I don’t think they’ve played in enough weird big games where anyone could be anyone without role affil so them saying an usually town role and providing other perspective feels very towny because I feel like banana as scum would likely go with the flow with the DP.

Mestari - I don’t know there behavior but they have been pretty consistently pushing back on reads and questioning the thoughts of the only confirmed town. While this seems scummy when typing, I feel like it’s important to challenge these reads because I feel like scum would just buddy off the confirmed townies

Wryly - relatively similar playstyles from what I’ve seen of them to the town. I could be totally wrong since I’ve taken long hiatus’s but they seem to be align with town behavior

Scum Reads

whiteflame - I think that he is kind of lying low. I’ve seen him do this in big games when he is scum and it’s always hard to get a good behavior out of him. It’s a few minor posts challenging a few things and then going out and not really saying much

Alyssa- I don’t know who this is, but if they are relatively now or just rage in frustration (don’t worry I do that too), I feel like them voting themselves is pretty weird behavior. They were doing it even during DP1. I like the idea suggested that it could be just a gambit to end the DP early since they were given up

I don’t think this slot would have bee subbed out if it was a scum slot tbh

What do you mean?

I’m watching Pie and Rex

Rex is null but literally just my gut is going off and i have no reason why but if it was a gut list id go scum but that’s unfair

Pie is never town

Popped it and DP didn't end or Mikal isn't back yet?

Both whiteflame and Pie seem underactive tbh, but I'm willing to take it with a grain of salt considering the size of this game.

DP didn't end

I forgot about Helz in my town read

Town Read on Helz as well.

From the posts I gathered he seems to really care about the logic and putting the effort in to identify factors in the game and logically solve things. I think he’s put a lot of effort and his reads have been consistently solid. His posts tend to be long paragraphs of analysis rather than short bursts of posts and that feels super townie in a dense game like this.

Obviously a grain of salt. Pie is in busy season with work from what I assume and still gets his analysis and reads off. Pie is mostly null because he’s always scum. Whiteflame sometimes as scum falls into the line of if the activity is being engaged relatively hard and he doesn’t need to contribute, he’ll make a few comments here and there and let the others talk

Anyway have meetings pretty much most of the afternoon so hopefully can sneak some posts before I take off home.

I mean I’ve looked at his posts, it’s not like 1 liners for like 90% of it

So something I brought up in my mason Pm is the idea of pushing a mass claim in dp3.

We already have a decent head start after Thoth, if Alyssa is scum it s a very good start. At this point to me the risk/benefit of this leans towards benefit. As of right now we have no reason to assume mafia can kill more than once per night phase, so at best they can take out one power role that night. If there is a town vig it will help them know who not to kill going forward. And lastly it can help us narrow down third party. To be clear I don’t care about hunting third party too much if it detracts from hunting scum but my guild doesn’t feel the same way understandably.

Especially after the third party apparently chose not to win with town. So without behavioral analysis to link them to Thoth or Alyssa (they can literally just play how they would as town and we wouldn’t know) the best way to nail third party would be to use mech analysis. Getting claims can help us narrow down which claims are less likely to exist versus which claims are mostly likely to be in the game.

One of my guild mates is strongly against a mass claim and I get there reasons for it. But I figured this would be worthwhile to discuss with the rest of town. And gather some opinions on.

He was so unusually aggro on Thoth though. Rarely have I seen whiteflame go for it like that. It was less Tuvok, more B'Elanna.

No one will get my Voyager references.

It was less Mr. Weasley, more Mrs. Weasley.

No, no. It was less Baelor, more Maekar.

Goddamn it I can't get this.

It was less Dumbledore, more Snape is what I should've said instead of the Weasleys fuck

I'm overthinking this, I'm spending too much time on the harmonics of fiction analogy, let it go, let it go