Solo Leveling - DP2

This is not what Alyssa claimed…

This is essentially a popular lynchproof but not sure if it’s actually lynch proof at this point.

I don’t know what to make of this. Do they get a 1x lynch proof as well as popular scum? Popular scum has 100% been done by Mikal before

Problem is it got triggered at 10…

So the popular part is true.

My guess is that they are popular scum but have an ability to have a 1x lynchproof

This is weird. IMO this just feels like a scum gambit to try and confirm themselves but it makes no sense to me

Why wouldn’t you claim in full what your role is and hide your ability?

Voting yourself always looks way worse in this scenario as well

Yeah. This is just so weird. A 1x popular lynchproof does not make sense with the character. Popular yes the rest no

Popular scum has 100% been done by Mikal before

I pointed this out earlier and is actually a strong reason sus the popular claim

Vote Count

Alyssa 7/9 - wylted, luna, casey, shining , alyssa, kohai, Vader

Awesome 1/9 - helz

Consider my vote on Alyssa to be parked

Alright, reads before I get back to work:

Given Town:

Luna

Wylted

Town lean:

Rex - Luna trusts him, so I'll lean into that. I haven't got a lot of reason to see him as town yet, though behaviorally he's slight town to me. Also, I laughed my ass off reading that line about me being a prism breaking "wifom into a shifting, glittering rainbow of distracting bullshit." Too good.

Helz - I've liked Helz's contributions both this DP and last, especially with the attempts to focus on the CW

Mestari - largely based on DP1 behavior, I haven't seen anything that really moves the needle in either direction for him this DP.

Slight town:

Banana - I've liked a lot of her reads, and I've at least gotten where she's coming from with regards to Alyssa and Kohai in particular much of this DP.

Null:

Awesome - Just too little activity to go off of so far, and given that he wasn't in DP1, it makes him much harder to read.

Pie - I think he just looks behaviorally like Pie so far. I haven't seen anything that really places him in either camp.

Wryly - Tempted to give her a slight town, but I know that has more to do with her reads on me than anything specific I've seen from her. A lot of what I've seen seems genuine (and I do enjoy the humor), just can't nail it to an affiliation.

Vader - While I really don't love the sussing he's pushing my way this DP, I'm kind of sus by default after so many scum games in a row, so I get it. I haven't got a clean read on him beyond that, though, so null he goes.

Mag1c - Hasn't posted this DP, which doesn't look great. I'm close to putting him in slight scum, but I found the whole "not overthinking this" post about Thoth came off as pretty genuine. I don't think he'd avoid putting a vote down on his scum partner far earlier than that, either.

Slight scum:

Kohai - I'm of two very different minds on Kohai. His early claim lends him some credence, and especially since he claimed himself (and it's pretty clear scum have major characters as fake claims), I think it's more likely he's town on that basis. On the other hand, his efforts to gain towncred this DP based on Thoth's flip seem a little heavy handed and he's been jumping around on susses. He's rather close to null for me, but I can't quite put him in that pile.

Casey - Wanting to end the DP early the last couple of day phases definitely doesn't help, but I can see at least wanting to move on from the stronger scum reads after those have been solidified. Less fond of leaning on Vader as a secondary scum pick, largely on the basis that he just hadn't participated much up to that point. I get focusing on inactives, but not as far as scumreads go.

Shining - Mostly, this comes down to reads and how he's been posting them over the course of this and the last DP. I don't like that he was stand-offish about giving reads on Thoth, and I don't love how he's only posting Alyssa as a scumread this DP, leaving a huge null pool and saying he's "interested" in Pie.

Lean scum:

Alyssa - Too much about her claim just doesn't sit well with me, especially given the whole lynchproof aspect (which doesn't work well with Go Gunhee and may indicate an attempt to retrofit a role to him). Combine that with the whole connection to Thoth and his statement about Mestari and she really does stand apart.

awesome, shining and banana

If you were a dayvig and just had to start blasting, which of these three would you hit?

So the case against Alyssa seems to break down like:

The implications of Thoth's scumslip about Mestari:

It's possible she told him in scumchat, but then she could also have told him to just say he learned it from Mikal in scumchat. Maybe it was a scumchat coordination issue -- she just didn't have time to advise him to go with a better story. Then she bussed him. It's also possible scum!Thoth really did just confuse Helz and Mestari. Either way, scum!Alyssa had to be furious. Then she goes and says "it's possible he just learned it from Mikal", which seems like a pretty transparent attempt at distancing. So I'm left with whether to believe she'd be that transparent, or whether to believe she's too experienced a player to come off that desperate.

Thoth putting Alyssa in a Jinwoo POE:

Unsure how to read this. If you're scum!Thoth, Alyssa is your partner, and you know you're about to be lynched, why finger one of your scummate as possible 3P, even if it does only work for one night phase until people see your flip?

Widely Admired claim:

She describes it as she takes one extra vote to lynch, but then it resets. If it takes one extra vote to lynch her, she should've been lynched at 10 votes. I'm kind of confused.

Inconsistency in recruitment claim:

So the case here was that this statement: -- "First ability is the one I said was confirmable. Second one was the thing I can do at nights that doesn't require recruitment" -- implies that her Rally the Hunters power doesn't require recruitment, but her Widely Admired does. This could have just been phrasing ambiguity, and I'm not attributing anything conclusive to it. As a Solo Leveling character, none of her abilities should require recruitment. I'll wait for her to clarify this.

Voting herself:

I mean, Mestari voted himself as well when a wagon started on him. Could just be pure frustration from her. Not sure how to read it. NAI for now.

So the lingering issues for me are the Thoth association and the weirdness of the Widely Admired claim.

ATTENTION:

I was poisoned last night. I will die at the end of NP2.

Any healers?

don't claim that was just me requesting a heal if any

I speculated there could be a Poisoner DP1!

Phew channeled Kohai for a second there, don't know what happened.

Interesting development

Why Mag1c? Hm.

I'll buy that from Mharman.

My reads are mostly the same but there are a few small changes.

Mestari went from lean town to solid town after Thoth's flip, since he was the one who caught Thoth. Shining is now solid scum in my book. Not having a read on Thoth is much worse now that we have the flip. And me being poisoned makes me think I'm on the right track scumreading Shining, Helz, Pie, and Kohai.

As for Alyssa, I said yesterday that there are ways Thoth could be scum and Alyssa could be town, but the self-vote is basically just a confession. Hard scum.

As for Alyssa, I said yesterday that there are ways Thoth could be scum and Alyssa could be town, but the self-vote is basically just a confession. Hard scum.

Okay, you guys are scumreading the self-vote hard and I'm kind of lost. Is it a thing that town never self-votes but scum do?

Yeah, mafia tends to give up more easily. Town tends to think that scumreads on them are BS and will defend for a long time. Whereas mafia knows the scumreads on them are legit, which kinda frustrates them when trying to find a way out. So if it's damning enough, they're more likely to give up than town. I saw a lot of it during the MU anniversary mash from a while back. Outed scum would just shitpost until they died.

Okay, you guys are scumreading the self-vote hard and I'm kind of lost. Is it a thing that town never self-votes but scum do?

Depends on the player and circumstances. When mharman did it there was a lot of build up and back and forth. There was barely any with Alyssa, she went 0-100 real quick.

Working on some stuffs but some quick thoughts-

On Alyssa I do not understand the big AI deal about if its lynchproof 1x or popular. I dont remember them using either term ever and I really do not see how the semantics of what you call their function even remotely matter. People call mechanics all sorts of different things but they hard claimed exactly what their role did.

Mag1cian being poisoned has a lot of implications.

It lines up with my 2nd kpn theory to balance lobby size.

It also semi clears Rex and whoever Wylted recruited 'if' they were role blocked last night as the guild leaders recruited.

But that targeting is very odd. Why target Mag1cian? A few potentials:

-(As they said) maybe their reads hit on a poisoner?

-Could be a cautious player recognizing the low potential of Mag1cian being watched/protected N1?

-Could be 3p targeting potential mafia/avoiding their town reads?

-Could be a player that uses hard RNG for kills to break analysis

Regardless there is a lot of town read / high pull players in the game from what I am reading of the community feeling who would have made a better target for an evil to gun the town down without some reason. It is of note

I will also say up front if someone can heal they should not reveal as doing so after doing it. Keeping a healer hidden with a poisoner in the game has more value than confirming that Mag1cian is not pulling some gambit (which is possible but I won't unpack now)

You could try inviting me again, who knows maybe it will work this time ;-)

If you wanna recruit me you have to gamble on there being a healer that can save me.

Sorry I haven't caught up yet. I just moved and the hot water tank failed. I've been dealing with the basement flooding for the past few hours. Please don't hammer and end the day before I can catch up and post my thoughts.

Hmmm. Mharman got poisoned. Interesting. Does this mean we have a healer / doc? Does this mean doc acts as a healer, etc. Think he’s telling the truth cuz it would be a major gambit if he didn’t