Solo Leveling - Day phase 3

Fucking just imagine if the day phase smited half the posts because Pie had just come out and said "Actually I am the confirmed guild leader" to start with. 

For all the fancy bullshit in their head they accomplished less than nothing and wasted a ton of the towns time. Now they want people to sheep them as they push to eliminate a player they town read because they are on some power trip? No thank you.

Aren’t you the same guy who said we want as much information as possible? Lmao

Yeah. Im all about getting as much information as possible. What you did was a giant waste of time and you even view the situation as being a TvT. Then you double down afterwards and want to kill the guild member you town read because he is not bending to your will or you circle back and push me as you think I may be in that guild. Seems like you are more focused on your little Tree larping win con than helping out the town right now as you admit Shining is probably scum.

My take is pretty simple- We can revisit this subject later in the game but for now it does not make sense to out all the guild members giving mafia a list of who has developed powers. I do not see any world where scum Rex faked this peek. It simply makes no sense. While I do acknowledge a potential exists for framing/redirection/lawyer/whatever else to be possible we are talking about a gamestate where only 2 scum exist at N2 requiring both one of the scum to have that function + one of exactly those two to be in the guild. I simply see low odds there.

Lets set the ego aside and really consider what I am saying. Is the cost of revealing every developed power role in the game worth the benefit of maybe catching a rat in a guild given the odds on what has to perfectly exist for that to be the case? And this is assuming Rex hardline flatly voiced a target in his guild chat to begin with which I have not herd them say.

Past that why the hell are you pushing for an elimination on a slot you think is town and agree has no scum motive for their push on you? Dude. You are on some bullshit right now. If you want me to sheep you get your head out of your ass.

I am rather interested in these players today-

ILikePie5

Whiteflame

Awesome

Casey Risk

Shining

About where I am at for the day. I still think Shinings claim is total bullshit and I still do not have great feels on Awesome or Casey. Whiteflame I am simply paranoid about. They are a solid player by my read and their range is too high for me to trust them.

How do you reckon the guilty came about?

Has Casey posted today?

Yeah. Im all about getting as much information as possible. What you did was a giant waste of time and you even view the situation as being a TvT. Then you double down afterwards and want to kill the guild member you town read because he is not bending to your will or you circle back and push me as you think I may be in that guild. Seems like you are more focused on your little Tree larping win con than helping out the town right now as you admit Shining is probably scum.

I am focused on catching scum. And I am confident that scum is in that guild. That knowledge is paramount to catching scum, whether you think it’s optimal or not is besides the point. I’ve explained exactly why it’s likely that scum is in that guild. I’ve also explained why it’s likely there’s a redirector and framer, which you also conveniently ignore. You’re blaming me for my guild win con when REF IS DOING THE EXACT SAME FUCKING THING BY REFUSING TO SAY WHO HE TOLD THE INFORMATION TO.

My take is pretty simple- We can revisit this subject later in the game but for now it does not make sense to out all the guild members giving mafia a list of who has developed powers.

Then don’t. Make REF claim who the person is. I don’t want to say who’s in my guild. Tomorrow your mod confirmed townie won’t be alive and REF will keep playing to his wincon by refusing to reveal who the person is in his guild.

I do not see any world where scum Rex faked this peek. It simply makes no sense. While I do acknowledge a potential exists for framing/redirection/lawyer/whatever else to be possible we are talking about a gamestate where only 2 scum exist at N2 requiring both one of the scum to have that function + one of exactly those two to be in the guild. I simply see low odds there.

It’s even lower odds that a random scum member randomly framed me or randomly redirected REF lol. Gimme a break.

Lets set the ego aside and really consider what I am saying. Is the cost of revealing every developed power role in the game worth the benefit of maybe catching a rat in a guild given the odds on what has to perfectly exist for that to be the case? And this is assuming Rex hardline flatly voiced a target in his guild chat to begin with which I have not herd them say.

I knew it lmfao. This is why I wanted it in writing. Cause people like you are going to bring it up. THIS IS EXACTLY WHY I WANTED IT IN WRITING

Past that why the hell are you pushing for an elimination on a slot you think is town and agree has no scum motive for their push on you? Dude. You are on some bullshit right now. If you want me to sheep you get your head out of your ass.

I already told you. If he wants to push his guild wincon, I will gladly push mine as well. Revealing ONE person in his guild who is likely scum is NOT A HARM TO TOWN

Thats an interesting question. All forms of manipulation could exist. Pie hard claims not miller and there is no reason to doubt that.

Insane alignment cop I feel is a bit too bastard to exist. Gave too much thought to that.

This leaves all the tailors/lawyers etc or the manipulation roles like witch (forcing a player to target another player) or bus drivers swapping people around.

Small potential of Rex lying but I just do not see why they would at this stage of the game. Scum are seemingly down being between 2-3 mafia and we are nowhere close to a lylo so it would be a dumb play for them to highlight themselves hardcore right now as scum.

Thats an interesting question. All forms of manipulation could exist. Pie hard claims not miller and there is no reason to doubt that.

But you think that’s far more likely than scum having a mole? 😂😂😂

Has Casey posted today?

No

Sure, I get your fixation. You just got shoved hard as a confirmed town and such. You feel very justified and want closure. An easy question I can ask though is why does it need to be 'right the fuck now'?

You agree that Shining is probably scum. Whats the harm in keeping developed PR's hidden for another day and revisiting the subject tomorrow?

I do feel there is harm in guilds going at etch other demanding reveals. There is simply a difference between something being a valid issue and something being a valid issue that has to be addressed 'right the fuck now.' I am seeing more harm than good with the timing and its based off a pretty improbable situation.

Your pretty clever. While I disagree with your direction I will acknowledge that. Take a moment and try to break down the odds of what you are voicing as a potential.

Before I handle a bit of adulting I will say the exact same dynamic exists in your claim. We 'could' demand you have a guild member out themselves to verify your claim today. But why should we? The flip will show if that player was the guild leader and that semi-confirms you. Yes outing one of your guild members could resolve that right the fuck now but we could also just wait for the flip and get reasonable enough confirmation without outing a player as having developed powers.

Sometimes its good to just wait a bit and revisit the issue later imo.

Wylted was right, you are a retard. Literally no one is talking about revealing power roles who are in the guilds. And it’s because of REF refusing to reveal who he told information to that we’re in this position. If he wants to play to his other wincon, I’m fine playing it too.

You're asking me to play against that other wincon. I've stated I am willing to do that, but only if I am 110% sure you're town. There's two ways to do that. Wait for tomorrow to see Wylted's flip. Or, for your guildmates to vouch for you right now.

My vote is we out both of Pie's guildmates now, including the order they were recruited. This confirms both Pie and the NP1 recruit.

Then Rex outs his guild mate. From there we can essentially solve the PoE today.

Sure, I get your fixation. You just got shoved hard as a confirmed town and such. You feel very justified and want closure. An easy question I can ask though is why does it need to be 'right the fuck now'?

Cause what happens if scum NK REF tonight? REF likely knows a scum and refuses to out it.

Let’s assume for a moment that Shining is scum. There’s one scum left that would likely be in the guild. Scum will kill REF to prevent them from being outted. That’s why it has to be “right the fuck now.”

You agree that Shining is probably scum. Whats the harm in keeping developed PR's hidden for another day and revisiting the subject tomorrow?

I do feel there is harm in guilds going at etch other demanding reveals. There is simply a difference between something being a valid issue and something being a valid issue that has to be addressed 'right the fuck now.' I am seeing more harm than good with the timing and its based off a pretty improbable situation.

What makes you think it’s more likely that purely due to random chance, scum knew that

A) REF was the Cop

B) He was going to investigate Pie

If Rex didn't out to his guild mate that he was at least copping someone then he wouldn't be willing to out them after Pie confirms himself. This also makes me realize, it makes a difference if he told his guild mate he was in copping, or if he said who he was copping. The NP1 recruit in Pie's guild only gets town cred if mafia knew a confirmable townie was being targeted, because they wouldn't try to mislynch someone who can confirm themselves, they would just kill Pie or Rex instead.

Your pretty clever. While I disagree with your direction I will acknowledge that. Take a moment and try to break down the odds of what you are voicing as a potential.

Let’s assume framer because Redirector odds are even lower. If this was due to blind chance, there’s a 1/15 chance that they framed correctly. ~7% chance they framed correctly. Odds of one scum recruited NP0 = 4/16 =0.25 or 25%. NP1 let’s assume we factor Alyssa was never going to be recruited. 2/16 =0.125 or 12.125%. Both are immediately higher than purely random chance

Before I handle a bit of adulting I will say the exact same dynamic exists in your claim. We 'could' demand you have a guild member out themselves to verify your claim today. But why should we? The flip will show if that player was the guild leader and that semi-confirms you. Yes outing one of your guild members could resolve that right the fuck now but we could also just wait for the flip and get reasonable enough confirmation without outing a player as having developed powers. 

Sometimes its good to just wait a bit and revisit the issue later imo.

The flip will confirm me regardless. But what if Shining flips town? REF definitely dies and we still have 2 scum on the loose. That’s why it makes sense to get the information TODAY.

You're asking me to play against that other wincon. I've stated I am willing to do that, but only if I am 110% sure you're town. There's two ways to do that. Wait for tomorrow to see Wylted's flip. Or, for your guildmates to vouch for you right now.

Im not doing that. You know that the person in your guild is likely scum. If you’re going hold town hostage you’re going to die. I’m willing to let the guilds duke it out. If you reveal, you’ll get a free recruit cause I will likely die.

The only way to force REF to reveal their name is we willing to force a lynch on him because he loses on the spot. He knows the person in his chat is likely scum, but he can’t reveal it because he needs the guild to live to win. If the guild goes extinct or is hijacked by scum, he automatically loses

I'm not lynching Rex. I'll lynch explicitly outside of the hunters guild for now, but I am not lynching Rex. Honestly, we're probably lynching Helz today. He's in the guild, and I imagine 1 more player.

I'm perfectly willing to reveal their name even if it destroys my guild. I just want an absolute guarantee that I'm doing this for a town player.

I just want you to do what you literally offered to do here before walking it back:

That's the issue we have to deal with. Lunatic and Helz agreed to lie about Helz declining the invite to play a numbers game against the other guild and they still have their NP1 recruit. That's why they were fine using roles last night, because even if the Hunter's guild recruits, they are even on numbers because the Hunter's guild tried to recruit Luna NP0.

The situation is also a bit more complicated than you think it is.

I'm perfectly willing to reveal their name even if it destroys my guild. I just want an absolute guarantee that I'm doing this for a town player.

I just want you to do what you literally offered to do here before walking it back:

Okay so you agree to reveal after I reveal the first name?

I knew this guild wincon would be very unfun to play around. I nearly replaced out when it was announced, if only I didn't want to get back into playing mafia so badly. We're literally stalling the game for sidequests.

Yes

Yes

Great. One of them is Mag1cman. Your turn

Helz. He actually accepted the invite and joined our guild. He has not claimed to us. There is also a third. This third person is actually the cop. His character is Cha Hae-In. His character is the cop because monsters smell like shit to her. Luna came up with a kill-bait gambit where I would claim the cop results to bait the night kill. My character is Hwang Dongsoo. I have a role which has negative utility to town, but which I would rather not describe as it would allow scum to manipulate night results. The plan was to out the guilty and then hope scum kills me.

Well shit the clusterfuck continued in my absence. I'm laughing hard that Banana spends over a page arguing with Helz and then whiteflame comes and simply restates her arguments and Helz is like "oh I see that's fair."