Amber Mafia

A-Deirdre wrote:

Thanks for the response, that helps a ton.

Oberon & Flora - FoS. They are legit posting almost alike to this point. The same manner and in the same way. I really don’t understand the difference and I inherently FoS read that considering who these people could potentially be

If you want to start a wagon on Flora to see where it goes, I would join you. This might be one of the extremely rare occasions where we could do something with it. I think they have had a stark behavioral shift this game from the last game, and am getting Ruyi Zhuan vibes. I think the only big negative here would be risking one of the active players, but the later the game goes, the harder this person will be to get lynched if they are scum. Players like you me and Dierdre will slowly be picked off until it's just easy to manipulate people left.

A-Flora wrote:

A-Gerard wrote:

What are your thoughts on Llewella? Both general thoughts and specifically about 398

I have my reads in #358 and nothing has changed from that. I don’t see any attempt to genuinely scum hunt. My personal belief is to treat this individual objectively and ignore all the WIFOM. Just cause he said he was going to be like this, doesn’t mean he’s town. He’s obviously smarter than that. If he wants to take the back seat and not do anything while being active, it’s just blatant manipulation and objectively likely to come from scum.

Somehow I missed that post. Thankyou.

Dead

None

Claims List

Caine- Vanilla Town

Martin- Vanilla Town- Reads: Post 559, dp1

Unclaimed

Deidre- Reads: Post 540, dp1

Flora- Reads: Post 358, dp1

Gerard- Reads: Post 276, 478 dp1

Julian- Reads: Post 626, dp1

Llewella

Oberon

Random

Fiona

Bleys

Brand

I know it's been mentioned a few times and I'm a bit lost on the aim of these "disguiser codes" and how they'll function. If we're doing something like that, we need everyone onboard and clear on their purpose, so if someone could clarify, that would be great.

So there is two different roles on the set up list that can physically take over a persons account and post as them. A scum role called the "disguiser" which is like a yakuza. They flip as Disguiser, but then basically possess the person they killed's account. Then there is a third party role called Rogue Ty'iga that takes over a persons account.

So basically with all these "Identity theft roles" and the mod allowing cryptography to be used, the idea is you make an encrypted message using something like AES that only unlocks this with a code word. You put that code word in your will. If we suspect someone of being disguised, we can force them later to out this code word. If they cannot provide the code word, if proves they are not the original owner of that account and therefor scum.

A-Llewella wrote:

Town needs a train and counter train.

Concise focused posts.

So what are you going to do about it

Again noting should be around tonight. Have been extremely busy at work but should have some time tonight to give actual hard reads. From glancing.

I did not like brands idea of a mass claim

I disliked the wagon that formed off it even more.

I think Gerald is likely town. Could be wrong but usually have a decent gut read with him

I forget the name but I did see where one player was almost oddly worried about game balance and a jailor having to exist off town because of a mafia role existing. Not sure what to think of that from a glance but initial impression is that read as potential scum being worried about a town role existing.

A-Gerard wrote:

Oberon & Flora - FoS. They are legit posting almost alike to this point. The same manner and in the same way. I really don’t understand the difference and I inherently FoS read that considering who these people could potentially be

If you want to start a wagon on Flora to see where it goes, I would join you. This might be one of the extremely rare occasions where we could do something with it. I think they have had a stark behavioral shift this game from the last game, and am getting Ruyi Zhuan vibes.

I’ve already explained fundamentally why last game is different compared to this game and how I could say/do whatever I wanted in that game. As for Ruyi Zhuan, everything I’ve done is NAI. There’s nothing about my Vanilla strategy that is scummy. A 33% chance this early in the game is great. I think your concern is the two players I’ve chosen, which is just paranoia. I townread one of them and scum read the other. You and everyone else can choose the third person if you’re not comfortable, but prima facia 1/3 are likely to be scum at the worst

I think the only big negative here would be risking one of the active players, but the later the game goes, the harder this person will be to get lynched if they are scum. Players like you me and Dierdre will slowly be picked off until it's just easy to manipulate people left.

A-Gerard wrote:

I know it's been mentioned a few times and I'm a bit lost on the aim of these "disguiser codes" and how they'll function. If we're doing something like that, we need everyone onboard and clear on their purpose, so if someone could clarify, that would be great.

So there is two different roles on the set up list that can physically take over a persons account and post as them. A scum role called the "disguiser" which is like a yakuza. They flip as Disguiser, but then basically possess the person they killed's account. Then there is a third party role called Rogue Ty'iga that takes over a persons account.

I wouldn’t even worry about the Yakuza/TP cause just based on posting style, we should be able to figure it out

So basically with all these "Identity theft roles" and the mod allowing cryptography to be used, the idea is you make an encrypted message using something like AES that only unlocks this with a code word. You put that code word in your will. If we suspect someone of being disguised, we can force them later to out this code word. If they cannot provide the code word, if proves they are not the original owner of that account and therefor scum.

Wills can be manipulated though

I don’t understand your math on the vanilla thing. If there are three vanilla claims and they are actually vanilla and we just go through mislynching them to no avail, we help the mafia win con more than the town wincon. The very discussion of lynching vanillas makes it less likely it will be fake claimed as well.

I wouldn’t even worry about the Yakuza/TP cause just based on posting style, we should be able to figure it out

I think I could but I’m not sure about other players. You and dierdre probably could, but if your scum that is irrelevant. I think you are also skilled enough to pull off an accurate impersonation. Either way it’s failsafe against it and would only be revealed on suspecting someone anyway, so it can’t hurt.

Wills can be manipulated though

If the role is indeed in the game. Either way this part doesn’t matter as much for the cryptography strat to be effective

A-Gerard wrote:

I don’t understand your math on the vanilla thing. If there are three vanilla claims and they are actually vanilla and we just go through mislynching them to no avail, we help the mafia win con more than the town wincon. The very discussion of lynching vanillas makes it less likely it will be fake claimed as well.

And if they don’t fake claim vanilla, then the odds of being CCed skyrocket. No one is saying lynch all 3 one by one in a row. Today we lynch one. Tomorrow we get another claim, which will likely be Vanilla, and we reevaluate

Youre assuming that the two vanillas tho have claimed and the third that will claim are telling the truth. You have no way of knowing that and neither do I

I’m not saying I know the vanilla claims are legit, I’m saying if we lynch them and they are town we learn basically nothing. Doesn’t even make sense as a default lynch. It’s an extremely lazy lynch and I’d rather lynch someone for a behavioral reason

I’m debating between Llewela and Flora at this point. Both have stark contrasting behaviors if who there alias are is accurate.

I feel more confident in Flora though to be honest.

VTL: A-Flora

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (4/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Flora (p#533), A-Bleys (p#232), A-Martin (p#560)

A-Llewella (2/7): A-Brand (p#6), A-Deirdre (p#628)

A-Flora (2/7): A-Caine (p#290), A-Julian (p#646)

A-Bleys (1/7): A-Oberon (p#530)

A-Fiona (1/7): A-Gerard (p#334)

Not Voting (2): A-Fiona, A-Llewella (p#418)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 3 hours.

Still about 27 hours left in this DP. I think a claim between either Llewela or Flora would be good here

VTL: A-Flora

Here’s your counter wagon

I’ve already explained fundamentally why last game is different compared to this game and how I could say/do whatever I wanted in that game. As for Ruyi Zhuan, everything I’ve done is NAI. There’s nothing about my Vanilla strategy that is scummy. A 33% chance this early in the game is great. I think your concern is the two players I’ve chosen, which is just paranoia. I townread one of them and scum read the other. You and everyone else can choose the third person if you’re not comfortable, but prima facia 1/3 are likely to be scum at the worst

I really don't get the math here. I've read back through your previous points about how you got down to that number of 33% and it's still not clear. Are you presuming that scum will all claim VT at this point? That there's 6 actual VTs? If you could lay out the scenarios you're thinking on here, that would help a good deal.

So there is two different roles on the set up list that can physically take over a persons account and post as them. A scum role called the "disguiser" which is like a yakuza. They flip as Disguiser, but then basically possess the person they killed's account. Then there is a third party role called Rogue Ty'iga that takes over a persons account.

So basically with all these "Identity theft roles" and the mod allowing cryptography to be used, the idea is you make an encrypted message using something like AES that only unlocks this with a code word. You put that code word in your will. If we suspect someone of being disguised, we can force them later to out this code word. If they cannot provide the code word, if proves they are not the original owner of that account and therefor scum.

Alright, guess I can do this before the end of the DP.

A-Gerard wrote:

I’m not saying I know the vanilla claims are legit, I’m saying if we lynch them and they are town we learn basically nothing. Doesn’t even make sense as a default lynch. It’s an extremely lazy lynch and I’d rather lynch someone for a behavioral reason

I never said we just lynch the outright in a span of 5 minutes. Go back and read what I said. Make the three of them duke it out. That inherently generates reads. And I also said you can use behavior strategically in combination with my strategy. Your behaviorally strategy alone can’t be quantified. Mine there’s direct probability. It’s not “lazy.” It’s only lazy if they refuse to argue why they’re town and point us in a different direction.

A-Deirdre wrote:

I’ve already explained fundamentally why last game is different compared to this game and how I could say/do whatever I wanted in that game. As for Ruyi Zhuan, everything I’ve done is NAI. There’s nothing about my Vanilla strategy that is scummy. A 33% chance this early in the game is great. I think your concern is the two players I’ve chosen, which is just paranoia. I townread one of them and scum read the other. You and everyone else can choose the third person if you’re not comfortable, but prima facia 1/3 are likely to be scum at the worst

I really don't get the math here. I've read back through your previous points about how you got down to that number of 33% and it's still not clear. Are you presuming that scum will all claim VT at this point? That there's 6 actual VTs? If you could lay out the scenarios you're thinking on here, that would help a good deal.

I thought I was being pretty clear in my posts. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that in a 13 player game, there are 3 scum. Let’s also assume for the sake that out of the 10 remaining townies, 6 of them are Vanilla, which is a oretty liberal assumption. All the 6 Vanillas are going to claim that they’re vanilla and the 3 scum this early are gonna claim Vanilla cause otherwise they risk a CC. Then if we get 3 vanilla claims this early, probability wise 3/9 or 1/3 are scum prima facie. But we can take it a step further and force them to fight one another to help the rest of us generate reads. And worse case we read all 3 as town, but that still helps towards POE

A-Julian wrote:

I’m debating between Llewela and Flora at this point. Both have stark contrasting behaviors if who there alias are is accurate.

Would you like to elaborate how? I’ve already explained it to Gerard why you can’t compare the previous game to this game

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (4/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Flora (p#533), A-Bleys (p#232), A-Martin (p#560)

A-Flora (3/7): A-Caine (p#290), A-Gerard (p#649), A-Julian (p#646)

A-Llewella (2/7): A-Brand (p#6), A-Deirdre (p#628)

A-Bleys (1/7): A-Oberon (p#530)

Not Voting (2): A-Fiona, A-Llewella (p#418)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 1 hour.

I thought I was being pretty clear in my posts. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that in a 13 player game, there are 3 scum. Let’s also assume for the sake that out of the 10 remaining townies, 6 of them are Vanilla, which is a oretty liberal assumption. All the 6 Vanillas are going to claim that they’re vanilla and the 3 scum this early are gonna claim Vanilla cause otherwise they risk a CC. Then if we get 3 vanilla claims this early, probability wise 3/9 or 1/3 are scum prima facie. But we can take it a step further and force them to fight one another to help the rest of us generate reads. And worse case we read all 3 as town, but that still helps towards POE

So why are we assuming that scum will claim Vanilla? Like, I get it, that avoids a CC and there are obvious CC landmines in this game. That's a WIFOM reason for scum to claim Vanilla. That doesn't mean they will. I mentioned this earlier, but as far as I can tell, it wasn't stated that scum don't have access to fake claims. We also know that roles can come from outside those stated in the "Setup" thread, or scum could simply refuse to out and wait for the pool of CCable roles to dwindle as more PRs are forced to claim and more Vanillas are eliminated in an attempt to find scum in that set.

I see earlier that you suggested all Vanilla players should out themselves, so at least you're talking about generating a larger pool of Vanillas to lynch from rather than just lynching among the two players who have claimed. It's not a guarantee that we'll get scum to claim Vanilla, but I get where you're going with it if we assume they do claim VT. But as of right now, with the claims we have on the table, there is no 1/3 chance that either of the claimed Vanillas are scum, and I don't see how lynching either of them necessarily helps with POE anymore than selecting a widely sussed player who hasn't claimed.

Doing some catching up. Sorry I'vve been incredibly busy over the past few days. I hope people are enjoying the new mafia tools

A-Gerard wrote:

I don’t understand your math on the vanilla thing. If there are three vanilla claims and they are actually vanilla and we just go through mislynching them to no avail, we help the mafia win con more than the town wincon. The very discussion of lynching vanillas makes it less likely it will be fake claimed as well.

I agree with this. A big problem: If we are in a setup where there's a significant number of VTs then the more people who claim VT the more likely it is that scum will be bold and claim a PR. The danger in that is we just blindly mislynch a bunch of VTs and misclear a claimed PR

A-Deirdre wrote:

I thought I was being pretty clear in my posts. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that in a 13 player game, there are 3 scum. Let’s also assume for the sake that out of the 10 remaining townies, 6 of them are Vanilla, which is a oretty liberal assumption. All the 6 Vanillas are going to claim that they’re vanilla and the 3 scum this early are gonna claim Vanilla cause otherwise they risk a CC. Then if we get 3 vanilla claims this early, probability wise 3/9 or 1/3 are scum prima facie. But we can take it a step further and force them to fight one another to help the rest of us generate reads. And worse case we read all 3 as town, but that still helps towards POE

So why are we assuming that scum will claim Vanilla? Like, I get it, that avoids a CC and there are obvious CC landmines in this game. That's a WIFOM reason for scum to claim Vanilla. That doesn't mean they will. I mentioned this earlier, but as far as I can tell, it wasn't stated that scum don't have access to fake claims. We also know that roles can come from outside those stated in the "Setup" thread, or scum could simply refuse to out and wait for the pool of CCable roles to dwindle as more PRs are forced to claim and more Vanillas are eliminated in an attempt to find scum in that set.

I see earlier that you suggested all Vanilla players should out themselves, so at least you're talking about generating a larger pool of Vanillas to lynch from rather than just lynching among the two players who have claimed. It's not a guarantee that we'll get scum to claim Vanilla, but I get where you're going with it if we assume they do claim VT. But as of right now, with the claims we have on the table, there is no 1/3 chance that either of the claimed Vanillas are scum, and I don't see how lynching either of them necessarily helps with POE anymore than selecting a widely sussed player who hasn't claimed.

Vanillas should absolutely in no circumstances out themselves. This just gives away who the PRs are.