Amber Mafia

Let me check the major wagons

Vanillas should absolutely in no circumstances out themselves. This just gives away who the PRs are.

I've now argued several times against mass claims. I'm pointing to an argument Flora made and responding to it, that's all.

Fiona

There's like almost nothing in their ISO. A bunch of excuses on why they are inactive. They claimed to have caught up but have not done anything substantial since claiming to catch up.

Llewella

The thing I really do not like about their ISO is how quickly they jumped onto my wagon and then how quickly they jumped off of it. p#601 is one thing that caught my attention. They stated they wanted a clear wagon and a counter wagon but failed to actually propose a. counter wagon. They still are not voting. I feel this could very well be opportunistic scum waiting to see who to CW

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (4/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Flora (p#533), A-Bleys (p#232), A-Martin (p#560)

A-Flora (3/7): A-Caine (p#290), A-Gerard (p#649), A-Julian (p#646)

A-Llewella (2/7): A-Brand (p#6), A-Deirdre (p#628)

A-Bleys (1/7): A-Oberon (p#530)

Not Voting (2): A-Fiona, A-Llewella (p#418)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 1 hour.

Brand

p#538 reeks. There's literally zero town motive for this.

A-Deirdre wrote:

I thought I was being pretty clear in my posts. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that in a 13 player game, there are 3 scum. Let’s also assume for the sake that out of the 10 remaining townies, 6 of them are Vanilla, which is a oretty liberal assumption. All the 6 Vanillas are going to claim that they’re vanilla and the 3 scum this early are gonna claim Vanilla cause otherwise they risk a CC. Then if we get 3 vanilla claims this early, probability wise 3/9 or 1/3 are scum prima facie. But we can take it a step further and force them to fight one another to help the rest of us generate reads. And worse case we read all 3 as town, but that still helps towards POE

So why are we assuming that scum will claim Vanilla? Like, I get it, that avoids a CC and there are obvious CC landmines in this game. That's a WIFOM reason for scum to claim Vanilla.

If scum want to yolo and be caught, they can be my guest, I’ll take it. But taking that risk makes zero sense, especially when you can claim Vanilla and blend in this early. Keep in mind that I didn’t even reveal this strategy till after 2 people claimed Vanilla.

That doesn't mean they will. I mentioned this earlier, but as far as I can tell, it wasn't stated that scum don't have access to fake claims.

They don’t, Mago publically confirmed it

We also know that roles can come from outside those stated in the "Setup" thread

This is not true either. Mago confirmed that all the roles in the game have to be in the thread

, or scum could simply refuse to out and wait for the pool of CCable roles to dwindle as more PRs are forced to claim and more Vanillas are eliminated in an attempt to find scum in that set.

And that’s why we limit claims to 3 today. Tomorrow the strategy can change depending on people claiming PRs. But this early in a game i don’t see why we inherently just keep looking for more claims. Brands wagon has stalled. Mine has accelerated, which is fine. I’m fine being the third person to claim and no one else, but that limits your options.

I see earlier that you suggested all Vanilla players should out themselves, so at least you're talking about generating a larger pool of Vanillas to lynch from rather than just lynching among the two players who have claimed.

I never said all Vanillas should out.

It's not a guarantee that we'll get scum to claim Vanilla, but I get where you're going with it if we assume they do claim VT. But as of right now, with the claims we have on the table, there is no 1/3 chance that either of the claimed Vanillas are scum, and I don't see how lynching either of them necessarily helps with POE anymore than selecting a widely sussed player who hasn't claimed.

If the third person we sus claims a PR, it dramatically reduces their odds of being scum. Helps with POE either way.

A-Caine wrote:

A-Gerard wrote:

I don’t understand your math on the vanilla thing. If there are three vanilla claims and they are actually vanilla and we just go through mislynching them to no avail, we help the mafia win con more than the town wincon. The very discussion of lynching vanillas makes it less likely it will be fake claimed as well.

I agree with this. A big problem: If we are in a setup where there's a significant number of VTs then the more people who claim VT the more likely it is that scum will be bold and claim a PR. The danger in that is we just blindly mislynch a bunch of VTs and misclear a claimed PR

I said we should limit claims to 3 today for a reason

A-Deirdre wrote:

Vanillas should absolutely in no circumstances out themselves. This just gives away who the PRs are.

I've now argued several times against mass claims. I'm pointing to an argument Flora made and responding to it, that's all.

I never said all Vanillas should claim. That’s just false lol

If scum want to yolo and be caught, they can be my guest, I’ll take it. But taking that risk makes zero sense, especially when you can claim Vanilla and blend in this early. Keep in mind that I didn’t even reveal this strategy till after 2 people claimed Vanilla.

It's possible one or even both of them did go for the Vanilla claim as scum. I get that scum could have seen it as a low risk move. That being said, it's not like "claim Vanilla" or "YOLO" are the only two possibilities scum have for claiming this early.

They don’t, Mago publically confirmed it

Didn't see the post, but I'll take your word for it.

This is not true either. Mago confirmed that all the roles in the game have to be in the thread

Not according to Magoroth, apparently #49. Haven't asked him personally, though I trust that Gerard has.

And that’s why we limit claims to 3 today. Tomorrow the strategy can change depending on people claiming PRs. But this early in a game i don’t see why we inherently just keep looking for more claims. Brands wagon has stalled. Mine has accelerated, which is fine. I’m fine being the third person to claim and no one else, but that limits your options.

Don't see why 3 is the magic number. Is the idea then to necessarily lynch among this group because there might be a 1 in 3 chance of hitting scum within it?

I never said all Vanillas should out.

I apologize, you were responding to Brand who said it.

If the third person we sus claims a PR, it dramatically reduces their odds of being scum. Helps with POE either way.

I would agree that if someone claims a PR from within the group of town PRs, that would be strong evidence in their favor. I'm more hesitant to say that it should lead us to necessarily lynch one of the two claimed VTs as a result, which is where you're headed with this.

VTL: A-Bleys

For the moment

Its a bad play. But its openly bad to the point the optics look awful. Would not be a position a scum would want to openly say.

I'm more concerned with how little they have voiced outside of Anon, OGI, and claim ideas.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (4/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Flora (p#533), A-Bleys (p#232), A-Martin (p#560)

A-Flora (3/7): A-Caine (p#290), A-Gerard (p#649), A-Julian (p#646)

A-Llewella (2/7): A-Brand (p#6), A-Deirdre (p#628)

A-Bleys (2/7): A-Oberon (p#530), A-Llewella (p#670)

Not Voting (1): A-Fiona

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day.

Not interested in for today:

Random- Good positions all around. Only concern I had was their level of confidence in #193

Gerard- The frustration dealing with me looked good enough for me to not consider them at all for D1

Martin- Very odd VT claim. Could be apathy. Enough original takes in their read wall they should not be the elemination

Deirde- Slippery one right there. I may never trust them but zero D1 interest

A-Deirdre wrote:

If scum want to yolo and be caught, they can be my guest, I’ll take it. But taking that risk makes zero sense, especially when you can claim Vanilla and blend in this early. Keep in mind that I didn’t even reveal this strategy till after 2 people claimed Vanilla.

It's possible one or even both of them did go for the Vanilla claim as scum. I get that scum could have seen it as a low risk move. That being said, it's not like "claim Vanilla" or "YOLO" are the only two possibilities scum have for claiming this early.

What’s the other option? I mean it’s clearly high risk high reward right. If they yolo and go for a PR, they cruise for a couple of DPs. Or they get CCed and you immediately go down. Only a couple of people would yolo and Martin/Caine don’t strike me as those people

They don’t, Mago publically confirmed it

Didn't see the post, but I'll take your word for it.

You can also confirm in DM if you don’t want to go look for it

This is not true either. Mago confirmed that all the roles in the game have to be in the thread

Not according to Magoroth, apparently #49. Haven't asked him personally, though I trust that Gerard has.

He’s wrong. I specifically asked him in DP whether roles outside the list could be present and he said no.

And that’s why we limit claims to 3 today. Tomorrow the strategy can change depending on people claiming PRs. But this early in a game i don’t see why we inherently just keep looking for more claims. Brands wagon has stalled. Mine has accelerated, which is fine. I’m fine being the third person to claim and no one else, but that limits your options.

Don't see why 3 is the magic number. Is the idea then to necessarily lynch among this group because there might be a 1 in 3 chance of hitting scum within it?

I think it’s the sweet spot, but the 33% also factors a little into it.

I never said all Vanillas should out.

I apologize, you were responding to Brand who said it.

If the third person we sus claims a PR, it dramatically reduces their odds of being scum. Helps with POE either way.

I would agree that if someone claims a PR from within the group of town PRs, that would be strong evidence in their favor. I'm more hesitant to say that it should lead us to necessarily lynch one of the two claimed VTs as a result, which is where you're headed with this.

And that’s my point. Either way you have to consider the trade off. More claims or go with the tactic I described

A-Llewella wrote:

Not interested in for today:

Random- Good positions all around. Only concern I had was their level of confidence in #193

Gerard- The frustration dealing with me looked good enough for me to not consider them at all for D1

Martin- Very odd VT claim. Could be apathy. Enough original takes in their read wall they should not be the elemination

Deirde- Slippery one right there. I may never trust them but zero D1 interest

I want your thoughts on my strategy

A-Flora wrote:

I want your thoughts on my strategy

(Cutting back to earlier)

Statistically the odds of scum claiming Vanilla are high. I’m going to stick to my strategy. You agreed with Caine. I just asked Martin to claim cause I thought they were someone else. But even assuming that half of town (let’s say 6) is VT and all 3 scum claiming Vanilla, you’re looking at a 33% chance of outright catching scum

So 12 players. Assuming 2-4 scum. 4 scum if scum team is nerfed with a lost wolf and weaker roles being 2+lost and neutral thats town sided. 3 otherwise.

Considering claim value we at best have a 1 shot alignment+role cop. Nothing else to verify movement and even citizens can visit. This makes the only value of claims coming from counter claims of specific roles sorting neutral/town pairings with externally conformable mechanics.

I do not see value in sorting VT claims as we have no ability to do so mechanically.

Assuming normal odds is grabbing random VT claims and declaring 1/3 chance of scum any better than RNG? I dont see it.

I do see great value for scum getting VT claims out of the town to narrow down their kill target.

I’m pushing slightly back on my Martin a bit. Because obvious VT is what scum would optimally claim to put themselves in a position to not get CC’d when no claims are out there. It could be Martin generating town cred

People should stop with the claim stuff. How in your heads do you solve this game using claims outside of wanting scum to hard CC paired roles?

The only role cop function also gets a perfect alignment check which makes it a moot point.

Our real invest is gona be the Coroner. Every player should make codes (Hand solvable by mod demand) to counter disguise, and last wills. Confirmation that a last will was altered is confirmation a slot was messed with by non-town alignment.

Im about to read through this but I think if anything the yazkua role is prob going to suck with how its designed.

A-Gerard wrote:

I don't know who you are or who you think I am, but I will say that, with a community this small where most of us known each other so well, it's pretty much impossible for us to not figure out who everyone is unless we go out of our way to hide our writing styles. Kinda makes it so there's information we all know but can't discuss.

And if we didn't all know each other this well... there would be no point in having in anonymous game.

We will probably figure out who most people are by the time this is done. But I still will try to enjoy the anonymity factor of this. Kind of like a clean slate playing without pre-conceived biases. Strong players don't necessarily get a pass for being suspected because they are feared unless we go out of our way to place a name to the person, which I don't think we should do. I'll probably keep my guesses about people's identities to myself for the sake of enjoying this game to its fullest potential.

Why say this and then outline who people are a few pages later?

I am not feeling well and have asked to sub out

A-Brand wrote:

I am not feeling well and have asked to sub out

I am sorry to hear. Please feel better

A-Llewella wrote:

Its a bad play. But its openly bad to the point the optics look awful. Would not be a position a scum would want to openly say.

I'm more concerned with how little they have voiced outside of Anon, OGI, and claim ideas.

So are you basically arguing it is TWTBAW?

Why say this and then outline who people are a few pages later?

Changed my mind. Because I figure people are being so obvious about it that we should assume mafia already know who people are anyway, so make the information public to level the playing field.

I am not feeling well and have asked to sub out

Ooh let’s get wryly

Yes please!

I don’t think anyone didn’t know Thoth wasn’t Brand but fair enough to whoever replaces

Kohai wrote:

Yes please!

Oops wrong account

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