Kohai wrote:

Test

ey chill

A-Gerard wrote:

Kohai wrote:

Test

ey chill

sorry wrong thread!

A-Flora wrote:

A-Gerard wrote:

I’m not saying I know the vanilla claims are legit, I’m saying if we lynch them and they are town we learn basically nothing. Doesn’t even make sense as a default lynch. It’s an extremely lazy lynch and I’d rather lynch someone for a behavioral reason

I never said we just lynch the outright in a span of 5 minutes. Go back and read what I said. Make the three of them duke it out. That inherently generates reads. And I also said you can use behavior strategically in combination with my strategy. Your behaviorally strategy alone can’t be quantified. Mine there’s direct probability. It’s not “lazy.” It’s only lazy if they refuse to argue why they’re town and point us in a different direction.

Sounds like this strategy could be employed on anyone regardless of whether they are vanilla or not. Are you really picking them for vanilla? Or is it because of who operates the account lol?

Also how do you force some one to FOS someone else for logic they don’t fundamentally already agree with? This whole plan is so bad that I struggle to believe you were capable of coming up with something this stupid and are town.

What’s the other option? I mean it’s clearly high risk high reward right. If they yolo and go for a PR, they cruise for a couple of DPs. Or they get CCed and you immediately go down. Only a couple of people would yolo and Martin/Caine don’t strike me as those people

Or we just end up outing town players in groups of three until they get sufficient role info to avoid a CC. I get the basic premise that scum are less likely to claim a PR in this scenario, but that only lasts so long as we don't start outing too many PRs. I also get drawing some attention to Martin and Caine given that Vanilla is a clearer safe claim right now, even if I'm a little lost on any other factor that distinguishes them.

You can also confirm in DM if you don’t want to go look for it

Waiting on an answer from Magoroth.

And that’s my point. Either way you have to consider the trade off. More claims or go with the tactic I described

I'm fine getting at least one more claim at this point, less fine with just lynching one of the VT claims straight up.

I am more saying that its a bad play as either alignment more than saying that its too scummy to be scum. That your grabbing intention that can exist there but I would hesitate to dive very deep on that.

A-Gerard wrote:

So lynch it?

When it comes down to it yes

A-Flora wrote:

A-Oberon wrote:

Real talk for 1 second: the inactive rule probably finds scum at a higher rate than using my reads.

What do you mean by this?

My reads aren't that good. If we just lynch the most inactive player every day phase until mylo/lylo, town will have a better win rate than if they followed my reads.

A-Llewella wrote:

A-Flora wrote:

I want your thoughts on my strategy

(Cutting back to earlier)

Statistically the odds of scum claiming Vanilla are high. I’m going to stick to my strategy. You agreed with Caine. I just asked Martin to claim cause I thought they were someone else. But even assuming that half of town (let’s say 6) is VT and all 3 scum claiming Vanilla, you’re looking at a 33% chance of outright catching scum

So 12 players. Assuming 2-4 scum. 4 scum if scum team is nerfed with a lost wolf and weaker roles being 2+lost and neutral thats town sided. 3 otherwise.

Considering claim value we at best have a 1 shot alignment+role cop. Nothing else to verify movement and even citizens can visit. This makes the only value of claims coming from counter claims of specific roles sorting neutral/town pairings with externally conformable mechanics.

I do not see value in sorting VT claims as we have no ability to do so mechanically.

This whole post makes zero sense. What are you saying

I'm not on board with the Brand wagon, they along with Gerard are my stronger town reads at the moment. I have at least vague reads on almost everyone except Flora and Fiona, just due to the name similarity I can't form distinct opinions of them in my head, I'll have to ISO them later; but due to time constraints probably not until after the DP is over.

I'm catching up with the last page of posts then I'm going to decide whether to continue with a coalition on Bleys or try to build one on Lywella.

A-Gerard wrote:

A-Flora wrote:

A-Gerard wrote:

I’m not saying I know the vanilla claims are legit, I’m saying if we lynch them and they are town we learn basically nothing. Doesn’t even make sense as a default lynch. It’s an extremely lazy lynch and I’d rather lynch someone for a behavioral reason

I never said we just lynch the outright in a span of 5 minutes. Go back and read what I said. Make the three of them duke it out. That inherently generates reads. And I also said you can use behavior strategically in combination with my strategy. Your behaviorally strategy alone can’t be quantified. Mine there’s direct probability. It’s not “lazy.” It’s only lazy if they refuse to argue why they’re town and point us in a different direction.

Sounds like this strategy could be employed on anyone regardless of whether they are vanilla or not. Are you really picking them for vanilla? Or is it because of who operates the account lol?

I thought of this after they had claimed. And no, it can’t only be used on people who claim Vanilla. Idrc who operates account. I see that the odds are if scum are forced this early to claim ie if Caine or Martin are scum, they’re likely to claim Vanilla.

Also how do you force some one to FOS someone else for logic they don’t fundamentally already agree with?

What are you even talking about? If 3 people know they’re the targets, they have 2 options:

1) Explain why one of the other people should be lynched

2) Explain why someone outside of the two should be lynched.

It generates activity on their end, plus forces the rest of town to choose sides.

This whole plan is so bad that I struggle to believe you were capable of coming up with something this stupid and are town.

You saying it’s “bad” doesn’t mean it’s objectively bad. It’s objectively and statistically sound. The arguments you and Deidre have made, I’ve repudiated. You have failed to explain why the probability doesn’t make sense.

You have 2 options at this stage. Get a third claim and lynch out of the 3, with the third person most likely claiming Vanilla anyways, or get a fourth claim. Pick your poison.

I have it confirmed by Magoroth that the list of roles provided in the Setup thread is exhaustive, so yes, that pool of 7 roles specific to town is the extent of it. Fair enough, I appreciate the correction. That does make it harder for scum to fake claim actual roles in the game.

The player in A-Brand’s slot has been replaced.

A-Flora wrote:

This whole post makes zero sense. What are you saying

That your plan arguing 33% chance of scum within pools does not look above random voting.

That claims in this game are worthless to town for future analysis without role cops or trackers/lookouts/detectives to verify.

That there is no mech crunch here I see and revealing VT's does help scum.

Hey

Hey all, subbing in for this slot. I started reading this game earlier today but did not get very far. Busy with work rn but I will catch up when I get home.

Personal request- Change your avatar.

Mine is throwing up after seeing the 11 year old BDSM thing. (Literally why I made my avatar what it is)

A-Deirdre wrote:

What’s the other option? I mean it’s clearly high risk high reward right. If they yolo and go for a PR, they cruise for a couple of DPs. Or they get CCed and you immediately go down. Only a couple of people would yolo and Martin/Caine don’t strike me as those people

Or we just end up outing town players in groups of three until they get sufficient role info to avoid a CC. I get the basic premise that scum are less likely to claim a PR in this scenario, but that only lasts so long as we don't start outing too many PRs. I also get drawing some attention to Martin and Caine given that Vanilla is a clearer safe claim right now, even if I'm a little lost on any other factor that distinguishes them.

Correct, and by the end of today, we will have reads generated with everyone aligning with their preferred lynch. The alternative is getting a 4th claim. No one is saying keep it going till the end of the game. But statistically, it’s true.

You can also confirm in DM if you don’t want to go look for it

Waiting on an answer from Magoroth.

And that’s my point. Either way you have to consider the trade off. More claims or go with the tactic I described

I'm fine getting at least one more claim at this point, less fine with just lynching one of the VT claims straight up.

Ya, and that’s perfectly fine. I want a third claim too. I’d bet good money that it’s going to be Vanilla. I’ve been saying we need a third claim for a while

I agree with Flora here.

It's possible one or even both of them did go for the Vanilla claim as scum. I get that scum could have seen it as a low risk move. That being said, it's not like "claim Vanilla" or "YOLO" are the only two possibilities scum have for claiming this early.

//

What’s the other option? I mean it’s clearly high risk high reward right. If they yolo and go for a PR, they cruise for a couple of DPs. Or they get CCed and you immediately go down. Only a couple of people would yolo and Martin/Caine don’t strike me as those people

It literally is "claim vanilla or yolo", especially in a semi open game like this where there isn't a big pool to claim from (and claiming a role not on the list is probably more sus). This is old school mafia theory.

I've always been partial to acting according to SOP, in practice that means in the absence of reads, we policy lynch negative utility roles -> lynch inactives -> lynch vanillas.

A-Llewella wrote:

A-Flora wrote:

This whole post makes zero sense. What are you saying

That your plan arguing 33% chance of scum within pools does not look above random voting.

What do you mean?

That claims in this game are worthless to town for future analysis without role cops or trackers/lookouts/detectives to verify.

Speak for yourself. I proved to you how mechanical analysis won us the game.

That there is no mech crunch here I see and revealing VT's does help scum.

I never said everyone should reveal. I’m just saying get 3 people to claim. Idrc who. We already have 2. Get a third. Force them to say who they scumread or just get lynched. Easy.

Welcome to the game!

Agree

Kohai wrote:

Test

𓍯

Subbing out while under the gun is kinda sus tbf, now I'm not so sure about town reading Brand.

Please forgive me for developing the site further. This is why I wanted to run a test game before this one. Oh well

I don't really like talking about substitutions. Let the new player talk and judge the slot by their behaviour

A-Deirdre wrote:

I have it confirmed by Magoroth that the list of roles provided in the Setup thread is exhaustive, so yes, that pool of 7 roles specific to town is the extent of it. Fair enough, I appreciate the correction. That does make it harder for scum to fake claim actual roles in the game.

Well then Gerard needs to explain himself

So in a 12 player game where 9 are town and 3 are scum we have at minimum 2 vanilla town. This makes me think we have far more vanillas than actual PRs.

A-Caine wrote:

I don't really like talking about substitutions. Let the new player talk and judge the slot by their behaviour

This is the kind of meta gaming info that's against the spirit of the game to analyze but at the same time impossible to just ignore. In my experience subbing out under the gun has been >50% scum.

I've played a lot of forum mafia and most of the time subbing out is NAI unless the player has a meta habit of subbing out as a particular alignment.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (4/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Flora (p#533), A-Bleys (p#232), A-Martin (p#560)

A-Flora (3/7): A-Caine (p#290), A-Gerard (p#649), A-Julian (p#646)

A-Llewella (2/7): A-Brand (p#6), A-Deirdre (p#628)

A-Bleys (2/7): A-Oberon (p#530), A-Llewella (p#670)

Not Voting (1): A-Fiona

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 19 hours.

A-Caine wrote:

I've played a lot of forum mafia and most of the time subbing out is NAI unless the player has a meta habit of subbing out as a particular alignment.

I'm saying specifically the case of subbing out while being the prime wagon with <24 hours left in the DP