Random, Gerard, Martin and Deirdre I am not interested in for D1. Brand, Bleys, Oberon and Flora I am.
I will again say every single player should daily do codes to break disguise functions.
And that towns primary invest may be the coroner so every player should post a last will.
A-Gerard wrote:
In the first sentence, you say being argumentative is a town sign. So do you think they wouldn't do it as scum? This person even admits that is how they would play as scum lol. Look at any game flora is scum with me and prove that he wasn't argumentative in it lol. If flora flips scum though this will be an interesting read to look at from you in hindsight, but we can cross that bridge if we come to it.
It's not an on or off thing. They might argue less. Argue with lower conviction. Argue about safer things.
Cool, but what specifically made you change your mind?
previous brand was only being defensive, not offensive. if you read previous brands posts, the only real suggestion they ever made was about a mass claim and they didnt take hard stances on virtully anything else.
A-Gerard wrote:
I am mostly going to respond to this out of boredom, as I don't think this conversation actually progresses the game. You will double down into oblivion and never admit you are wrong, and then even if you are lynched and innocent will just blame people for lynching you for being stupid or whatever, so it feels a bit pointless. But challenge accepted.
Im going to respond one last time and then ignore cause we’ve done this before and cluttered the entire DP and we both ended up town I’m pretty sure.
I thought of this after they had claimed. And no, it can’t only be used on people who claim Vanilla. Idrc who operates account. I see that the odds are if scum are forced this early to claim ie if Caine or Martin are scum, they’re likely to claim Vanilla.
You are only talking about this in regards to a vanilla role, meaning if someone claimed otherwise, you wouldn't have the same incentive to lynch them. From my POV I don't really see town having any other reason to claim any role besides vanilla. If I was forced to claim and I was a PR I would just claim vanilla. It doesn't make any sense to claim any thing else.
And that would be stupid because down the line when you’re about to be lynched, you’re going to say oh no no, I lied about my role. And I sure as hell will not believe that down the line. In this game, town should be honest and not force fellow townies to read into the WIFOM and force a decision.
We should treat this game as an all vanilla game unless someone has results or actions that implicate another person.
But it’s fundamentally not. There aren’t only Vanillas and goons. My strategy would not work in an all vanilla game because fundamentally everyone would be vanilla to begin with.
Which is why I haven't been going for claims very hard. I supported you in getting Caines only because I knew you wouldn't let it go like a pitbuill until otherwise and I didn't want to waste a considerable amount of the game on that shit.
That’s your perogative. Lynches via Behavioral analysis, especially during DP1 is more often than not wrong statistically. Last game was an exception, otherwise it’s usually a mislynch. Here there’s statistics to back it up + no one is saying avoid behavioral analysis. I’m promoting it. And in our quarrel here, Martin hasn’t said much.
What are you even talking about? If 3 people know they’re the targets, they have 2 options:
1) Explain why one of the other people should be lynched
2) Explain why someone outside of the two should be lynched.
It generates activity on their end, plus forces the rest of town to choose sides.
You are expecting them to be on board with logic that is already baseline unreasonable. Especially in DP1. In a LYLO situation where you are working through POE, maybe you do this, but not in DP1 lol
Expecting who? The rest of town? Or the 3 people? Regardless, it forces them to choose a side. That in itself is a gold mine. The Shining wagon last game was exonerating evidence for him.
You saying it’s “bad” doesn’t mean it’s objectively bad. It’s objectively and statistically sound. The arguments you and Deidre have made, I’ve repudiated. You have failed to explain why the probability doesn’t make sense.
This logic doesn't make sense if you are town.
The logic makes perfect sense. You just fail to see it because you’re refusing to acknowledge the probability aspect of it and are thinking I’m just saying totally ignore behavioral analysis. Even Deidre sees it now with my explanations. I’ve already told you that you can pick the third person, but you haven’t. You have a vote on me, but you haven’t said what your end goal is? Do you want a claim from me?
You are suggesting lynching someone for something completely NAI, a Vanilla claim, which we have reason to believe multiple exist based on the set up and number of roles.
A Vanilla claim this early isn’t NAI if we are considering that out of 3 people that claim Vanilla, one is likely to be scum. Why? Because scum are with 97% accuracy going to claim Vanilla this early vs a PR. That’s AI information
Scum have incentive to seek mislynches that "sound reasonable on paper" that can be justified. We lynch any of these people and they turn town, I guarantee the next day phase you just double down on your logic and say something like "Okay I was wrong, but the logic was sound so pursuing the lynch wasn't scummy".
Yes, because a 33% chance this early in the game is desirable. And you have yet to provide an alternative. Let’s say you force me to claim, and I claim Vanilla. Are you just going to get another claim from someone else, or lynch within the 3 people who have claimed lol. Cause at that point, you’re doing EXACTLY what I’ve been saying.
If we mislynch here we really accomplish nothing, except for going further down the rabbit hole and saying "Oh well, Caine was innocent, that means Martin is the next lynch, the logic still is valid" and if we mislynch again, you continuously escape blame for lynches that really have nothing to do with behavior, and were fundamentally wrong to begin with.
You have not read my previous posts. This is only for today. Tomorrow we reevaluate with the knowledge of the flip. This isn’t a Dreamer scenario where I’m just saying lynch 3 people back to back. It’s a forcible mechanism to produce reads from people both in the pool and outside.
You can always out argue your way out of mislynch responsibility, but you specifically have an uncanny ability to get away with it as scum more than others because you feel you can bully and intimidate people with a million back and forth responses that seem "logical" to the point where people just accept it out of exhaustion. Sorry buddy, I am not playing that game.
You don’t have to. If you don’t want to understand math, I can’t help you. A couple of people already outright agree with me or see where I’m coming from.
You have 2 options at this stage. Get a third claim and lynch out of the 3, with the third person most likely claiming Vanilla anyways, or get a fourth claim. Pick your poison.
Option 3: Ignore option one and two because they are fundamentally retarded and lynch people for actual behavioral related analysis.
Lol I’ve asked you this again. Why tf can we not do both? We’re not getting more than 3 claims anyways. And when that third person claims Vanilla you’re still just going to lynch them for “behavior” which is exactly what I’m saying we should do
I get that you know I could go full power town and want that. Im not doing it.
I am kind of beyond caring at this point. If you want to be hostile just don't be surprised that I am hostile back at you, after giving you the benefit of the doubt. I have accepted that you are going to meta game this, now I just have to decide if I want to lynch you for it. I know it won't prove a point with you, but you actively aren't helping town either, and if you are scum I am going to be extra annoyed for giving you a pass for it.
It's not an on or off thing. They might argue less. Argue with lower conviction. Argue about safer things.
I don't see that difference, are you able to reference specific town and scum games where you identified this, or are you just spit balling?
Lean Town:
Gerard - I think the PM stuff was NAI. I could see him doing this as scum as a WIFOM thing to try to garner town cred because it brings unnecessary attention. The town side though is the interaction with Brand. Probably the bane of Brand’s existence.
Caine - Feels town just based on vibes and the sheer wagoning that he’s doing. The MO fits the previous game as well.
Can you elaborate on the Caine read? He feels pretty null to me so far. His wagoning in the last game felt much more detailed from what I saw. Tho I am basing that largely on late game stuff, so maybe that's a little unfair. But I haven't seen anything yet that immediately makes me lean one way or the other from him.
Tilt Scum:
Llewella - I think these pseudo-vanilla games make it easier to lurk as scum and avoid posting. The posts this person has made just seem snarky for a bit until fading into no existence because other shit pops up
Martin - I think the passive aggressiveness is what I picked up on last game. It was a tiny push, yet an obvious push. Sort of like seeing what sticks. It didn’t stick on me obviously, but with someone like Llewella, odds are greater if sticks.
Re: Martin - I tend to always townread them which is a problem, but something about their behavior this game pings me as different somehow. I'm a little tired and trying to get caught up in time so I'm having a hard time assembling my thoughts well, but when I realized who they were I was like, "Wait, really? That's them?" Plus, you seem to be the one person who always sees through them. You are to Martin as a certain other player (I'll try to avoid breaking the rules even though the one about not claiming who you are is basically already dead) is to me. Somehow he can always immediately tell when I'm scum; I don't get it.
A-Gerard wrote:
I get that you know I could go full power town and want that. Im not doing it.
I am kind of beyond caring at this point. If you want to be hostile just don't be surprised that I am hostile back at you, after giving you the benefit of the doubt. I have accepted that you are going to meta game this, now I just have to decide if I want to lynch you for it. I know it won't prove a point with you, but you actively aren't helping town either, and if you are scum I am going to be extra annoyed for giving you a pass for it.
I think you keep demanding a specific thing you want from me that I am not giving you, and you are ignoring the things of solid value that I am giving you.
I am not trying to be hostile, but I generally make up my mind before a game starts the play style I will use. Sorry if you dislike my choice.
A-Brand wrote:
Lean Town:
Gerard - I think the PM stuff was NAI. I could see him doing this as scum as a WIFOM thing to try to garner town cred because it brings unnecessary attention. The town side though is the interaction with Brand. Probably the bane of Brand’s existence.
Caine - Feels town just based on vibes and the sheer wagoning that he’s doing. The MO fits the previous game as well.
Can you elaborate on the Caine read? He feels pretty null to me so far. His wagoning in the last game felt much more detailed from what I saw. Tho I am basing that largely on late game stuff, so maybe that's a little unfair. But I haven't seen anything yet that immediately makes me lean one way or the other from him.
He’s very trigger happy when he’s town is what I’ve noticed. Shifting from wagon to wagon. In his scum game, he’s more focused on himself and responding to that if I remember correctly. There’s also a sorta OGI thing as well
Tilt Scum:
Llewella - I think these pseudo-vanilla games make it easier to lurk as scum and avoid posting. The posts this person has made just seem snarky for a bit until fading into no existence because other shit pops up
Martin - I think the passive aggressiveness is what I picked up on last game. It was a tiny push, yet an obvious push. Sort of like seeing what sticks. It didn’t stick on me obviously, but with someone like Llewella, odds are greater if sticks.
Re: Martin - I tend to always townread them which is a problem, but something about their behavior this game pings me as different somehow. I'm a little tired and trying to get caught up in time so I'm having a hard time assembling my thoughts well, but when I realized who they were I was like, "Wait, really? That's them?" Plus, you seem to be the one person who always sees through them. You are to Martin as a certain other player (I'll try to avoid breaking the rules even though the one about not claiming who you are is basically already dead) is to me. Somehow he can always immediately tell when I'm scum; I don't get it.
Thats what my impression was as well. I thought they were someone completely different initially. But the passive aggressiveness is what really got my attention. It was a jab at me in the previous game. Here they’re poking Llewella.
What are your thoughts on the 2 wagons. That’s what you wanted right?
A-Gerard wrote:
It's not an on or off thing. They might argue less. Argue with lower conviction. Argue about safer things.
I don't see that difference, are you able to reference specific town and scum games where you identified this, or are you just spit balling?
Idk if u know who I am at this point, but I play like 1 mafia game a year and I'm too lazy to go and check the past games lol.
A-Gerard wrote:
Prince of Chaos (Disguiser)
Description: You are a Chaosite from the royal family, with shapeshifting abilities and the ability to walk the black road the straddles the multiverse.
Ability: Attack a player at night, killing them. You will disguise yourself as them, taking over their account. They will flip with your account’s name, their own role, and your last will. One charge.
Slot: Killing
Check out this role in the set up thread. This is a potential scum role. Holy shit this role is actually OP. And I got hate for including a Yakuza or a Tailor lmao. This role is way more bastard and chaotic. That said, if this role exists it needs to be executed with precision the likes I think only a small few people are capable of pulling off, so in dp2 and onward I will by hyper analyzing people's posting styles for consistency. You should do the same with me.
I mean, I agree that it's crazy strong, but in this case we all know it's possibly in the game. That normally doesn't apply to Death Tailor, which I still feel is very bastard tbh. Yakuza is probably fine but it seems very difficult to balance well. In any case, I do agree that it would be really hard to pull off well. Unlike with Death Tailor, you have to craft more than just one message well.
I'm not sure if I'll be on for the last 14 hours of the game. Consider my vote locked on Brand.
Brand did not look great early game but the focus on them felt extra. Yes #538 was an awful post but one I also tried to calm down the mob on. They were not THAT bad to be such a lead wagon. I refuse to consider their replacement timing in a read.
Im watching their replacement for the moment.
Your wagon seems like where it should be. You presented a plan arguing a mech crunch where there was none and have constantly shoved people for role reveals in a game I over and over ask how reveals help solve. I question your intentions and am only on Bleys to keep them in the situation for EoD
A-Gerard wrote:
A-Llewella wrote:
Oh, If its a rule break let me know. Its actually very simple but nothing that can be solved
I don't know if it's a rule break and I don't really care, let that be magos job. I was only pointing it out because I do not know how to create one of these for myself unless its Rot-13
This site has info on a bunch of ciphers and allows you to encode text right there.
A-Brand wrote:
This site has info on a bunch of ciphers and allows you to encode text right there.
Nice link. Im sticking hard within the hosts requirement that it must be solvable by hand and rather enjoy making such unsolvable puzzles but I will have to dig through that when I have time.
I will push yet again that every single player should make a code every single day this game.
And that would be stupid because down the line when you’re about to be lynched, you’re going to say oh no no, I lied about my role. And I sure as hell will not believe that down the line. In this game, town should be honest and not force fellow townies to read into the WIFOM and force a decision.
There are a total of 6 roles on the set up list for town, not including VT, so anyone claiming something other than VT is basically confirmed town and a free night kill. There are no "protection roles" on the town list, only roleblocking roles that have to be used correctly to even prevent a night kill. So claiming anything other than VT is basically town confirmation with 0 to protect against it. I was the first lynch in the last game after being town confirmed and had to watch the game from the sidelines for the better part of a month, so you can bet your jolly ass I would fake claim if I was one of those roles.
But it’s fundamentally not. There aren’t only Vanillas and goons. My strategy would not work in an all vanilla game because fundamentally everyone would be vanilla to begin with.
You can't call going down a line and lynching role claims that are guaranteed to exist in the game a "strategy". What if they are both town? We have every reason to believe at a minimum there are 2-3 vanillas in this game with 12 players and only 6 town roles on the list.
That’s your perogative. Lynches via Behavioral analysis, especially during DP1 is more often than not wrong statistically. Last game was an exception, otherwise it’s usually a mislynch. Here there’s statistics to back it up + no one is saying avoid behavioral analysis. I’m promoting it. And in our quarrel here, Martin hasn’t said much.
I've always been of the stance that behavior goes hand and hand with mech analysis. I am not saying we do one or the other. I am just not okay lynching JUST for a vanilla claim and you are. If someone has bad behavior and they are vanilla that is another thing. Your whole stance on martins behavior was loose justification that they were passive aggressive lol.
Expecting who? The rest of town? Or the 3 people? Regardless, it forces them to choose a side. That in itself is a gold mine. The Shining wagon last game was exonerating evidence for him.
Yes the three people. And shining couldn't be exonerated if he was mislynched lol
The logic makes perfect sense. You just fail to see it because you’re refusing to acknowledge the probability aspect of it and are thinking I’m just saying totally ignore behavioral analysis. Even Deidre sees it now with my explanations. I’ve already told you that you can pick the third person, but you haven’t. You have a vote on me, but you haven’t said what your end goal is? Do you want a claim from me?
Again I am treating this as an all vanilla game. If you are a confirmable PR, that will resolve itself. I am pressuring you to not only see how you react, but how others react to your wagon, and to see if your behavior shifts in any direction the closer you get to being lynched. I don't think 4 votes on you is enough to shake your confidence that you won't be lynched, so you don't have significant reason to fear actually being lynched. We'll see if that changes the closer you are to L1.
A Vanilla claim this early isn’t NAI if we are considering that out of 3 people that claim Vanilla, one is likely to be scum. Why? Because scum are with 97% accuracy going to claim Vanilla this early vs a PR. That’s AI information
Okay pie, humor me. You are scum, and someone in the day phase keeps repeating that they want to lynch through all vanilla claims. Are you still claiming vanilla? Mago specifically said that roles can exist outside that list, and that not every role on the list necessarily in the game. I asked him this in DM's when the game started, and I will happily post the screenshot if he allows me, or I encourage you to ask him the same thing if you don't believe me. Logical scum here is going to avoid claiming vanilla like the plague now, and happily wagon your logic to lynch through the actual vanillas with the way you framed this.
Yes, because a 33% chance this early in the game is desirable. And you have yet to provide an alternative. Let’s say you force me to claim, and I claim Vanilla. Are you just going to get another claim from someone else, or lynch within the 3 people who have claimed lol. Cause at that point, you’re doing EXACTLY what I’ve been saying.
The 33% statistic is literally pulled out of your asshole, and has no basis in logic or math, but you keep repeating it like it means anything. And the difference in me pressuring you is that I am pressuring you on behavior. You claiming vanilla in this scenario wouldn't help your case. If anything it would probably make it look pretty hyprocritical of you to suggest lynching vanillas when you yourself were one the whole time. Another reason I suspect you aren't one. If you aren't one your basically either confirmed town or scum though, so you claiming prior to a lynch essentially solves the situation. I guess that will just depend on how much of the day phase you want to waste being resistant to it before we are out of time to focus someone else in the chance you actually end up being town.
You have not read my previous posts. This is only for today. Tomorrow we reevaluate with the knowledge of the flip. This isn’t a Dreamer scenario where I’m just saying lynch 3 people back to back. It’s a forcible mechanism to produce reads from people both in the pool and outside.
I mean I could at least KIND of understand this if you were saying "If we can't find a better target, let's lynch one of the vanillas" and I would even be on board with that. But you've focused the majority of your time this day phase pushing and defending the logic that we should lynch only between the VT's instead of doing literally anything else, which is what makes it scummy.
You don’t have to. If you don’t want to understand math, I can’t help you. A couple of people already outright agree with me or see where I’m coming from.
Ad populum doesn't work in mafia. You have four people voting you, so even if a few people agree with you, doesn't mean everyone does. And you of all people should know having the ability to manipulate people into agreeing with you doesn't mean you are town.
Lol I’ve asked you this again. Why tf can we not do both? We’re not getting more than 3 claims anyways. And when that third person claims Vanilla you’re still just going to lynch them for “behavior” which is exactly what I’m saying we should do
You aren't doing both. You've made up your mind about lynching a vanilla, and you are post justifying reasons (shitty ones if im being honest) that they are scum. You would lynch someone because you interpreted something they said as being slightly passive aggressive lol?
A-Llewella wrote:
Your wagon seems like where it should be. You presented a plan arguing a mech crunch where there was none and have constantly shoved people for role reveals in a game I over and over ask how reveals help solve. I question your intentions and am only on Bleys to keep them in the situation for EoD
Ive already explained why you’re wrong, and you haven’t said anything. It’s objectively true that scum are likely to claim Vanilla this early in the game. If you disagree, explain to me how.
Also just to clear up the confusion I can't post a screenshot of my convo with mago, but he said I could ask him the same question about the set up list that I did when the game started, and he would answer it the same way.
This was the exact question I asked verbatim: "So is this a completely open set up meaning all these roles actually exist in the game?" And I linked the set up thread.
Mago what is your answer?
A-Gerard wrote:
Also just to clear up the confusion I can't post a screenshot of my convo with mago, but he said I could ask him the same question about the set up list that I did when the game started, and he would answer it the same way.
This was the exact question I asked verbatim: "So is this a completely open set up meaning all these roles actually exist in the game?" And I linked the set up thread.
Mago what is your answer?
I verbatim asked him if a role outside of the posted roles can exist in the game and he said No.
A-Gerard wrote:
Yup. Sub optimal play. This is the first community I have told people about my self imposed challenges. I got bored of winning a long time ago so they are a thing to push myself.
Self-Growth and challenge is cool and all, but it is a direct detriment to the players your teamed with unless your just scum. To put it bluntly, it's a bit of a selfish play if you are town. No one here knows you enough to read into this type of thing yet.
I have to strongly agree. Intentionally playing sub-optimally in a team game just ruins the fun for everyone else. Why play a team game if you're going to do that?
Also if we get to EOD and can't decide on a lynch I think we should default lynch either Fiona or Bleys for refusal to participate. Random said they would post tomorrow so I'll give them a temporary pass.
A-Gerard wrote:
Also just to clear up the confusion I can't post a screenshot of my convo with mago, but he said I could ask him the same question about the set up list that I did when the game started, and he would answer it the same way.
This was the exact question I asked verbatim: "So is this a completely open set up meaning all these roles actually exist in the game?" And I linked the set up thread.
Mago what is your answer?
So the setup is semi-open. Some or all of the roles in the setup thread can appear in the game.
This means it is possible for one or more roles not to be in the game.
I verbatim asked him if a role outside of the posted roles can exist in the game and he said No.
Where is the issue then, that's the same thing he told me. Maybe I am misunderstanding what Dierdre means by 'exhaustive". Thought he was saying that those roles have to exist in the game.
A-Gerard wrote:
I asked him this already in private, apparently there can be roles not on that list in the game
This is what you said. This statement is objectively false.
I have to be honest here, I was really hoping to get totally caught up tonight, but I'm really tired after this week and fading fast. I'm going to get up early tomorrow so I can be on, engaged, and hopefully fully caught up before EoD comes. Till then, going to bed.
If we are gona be real my hard in depth wall posts were barely worth talking about before. I may as well try small tik tok attention span posts this time around.
I read them all. You said a lot of stuff I didn't agree with, but you also come from a different community and your whole mafia experience is different then mine, so debating a lot of your beliefs around mafia kind of seems pointless. It wasn't that they aren't worth talking about, it's that they don't impact how I and other view the game a drastic amount. It did however help me get an understanding of how you think and post as town. And not every post was about meta, much of your posts were delving into people, analyzing their interactions and past thoughts. You grilled thoth for a page and a half after he had been lynched looking for associative tells. Where is that Llewella?
This is what you said. This statement is objectively false.
In hindsight maybe I viewed that incorrectly from his statement, but his response also doesn't conflict with this. He doesn't specifically say in that response that there aren't other roles beyond the list. If he told Dierdre it was exhaustive maybe that indicated that to him, but I didn't get that response. I assumed logically that if some of those roles could not be in the game, then there can also be roles not on the list in the game.
I can't decrypt my earlier AES thing. I think I fucked it up. I'll re do it.
