A-Random wrote:
90 to nothing kohai just pinged brand to get on and there will be pressure from that slot on me
I literally pinged the entire game
Yeah the iso is daming
"Killing a possible jester may be too risky"
He starts pitching the the idea of a jester and 3 scum to try and see if a derail sticks.
And more than that. Gerald was on his ass which makes sense. Gerald was towb read so it was a good choice regardless but he's mentioned i have went back snd forth with him and Gerald wanted him dead.
A-Caine wrote:
Can we please get some activity going?
Closing up social obligations for the night but it was a birthday party for an army ranger. You can imagine how much I can give to focus right now.
Brand iso is validating my thoughts. Given thr initial player in that slot. The push on him was hard, he's smart enough not to ask for a mass claim and does anyway to see if it sticks, gets frustrated; subs out after pressure. I am not going to read into the replacement yet as I think there is more info from the original one given his history
Kohai also trys to move this off after the new player subs in saying let the new player speak for himself and not sus the old slot
A-Bleys wrote:
Llewella, may you elaborate more on the game balance point you made here?
I will say for a second time Jailor should never reveal. Take that shit to your death if Regent is alive. I think its highly likely they exist because game balance may not be possible without Regent/Jailor both existing.
Bit of hyperbole. I think the community has a toxic habit of both claiming and demanding claims. In that moment it was about a Jailor not bailing themselves out of pressure with a fast claim and instead using their words and such. That hiding a Jailor keeps the Regent alive and they should fight under pressure without leaning on mech kinda deal
I think is exactly kohai and brand.
I am off for thr night now and not much else I can say. Im pulling back on lew given I think I realize who that slot is now and the sus from angle shooting on me is more in principle than a read
If you are the jailer. Do not claim
They will have to poe shoot
Im comfortable locking wf snd I feel confident in lew after realizing who they are
I dont think Fiona (or whoever the scum name is would be pressuring bleys) if there was a scum bleys.
It does not confirm them but limits my poe.
Town to scum
Myself
Wf
Lew
Bleys
Brand
Caine
Wf I beg you. Pls god trust me. Ill mod rm if im lying. I'm town.
A-Random wrote:
Wf I beg you. Pls god trust me. Ill mod rm if im lying. I'm town.
The desperation is real with this one.
Anyway I’m off to bed for real this time. See y’all tomorrow
A-Random wrote:
I think is exactly kohai and brand.
I am off for thr night now and not much else I can say. Im pulling back on lew given I think I realize who that slot is now and the sus from angle shooting on me is more in principle than a read
Thank you for admitting that you’ve spent nearly the entire game angleshooting. I consider this an admission that you can’t win a fair fight on your own merits.
Honestly, I'm thinking I'll sleep on it. Been a long enough day already. I don't think Caine vs. Random is a TvT situation. For reasons I won't say, I don't think it's mutual bussing, either, so it's likely only one of them is scum. We've got a little over 24 hours left to figure this out, and I'd rather have everyone chime in at this point.
Given that we already have two votes up, one for each of them, I ask that everyone else please recognize that an additional vote puts either of them at L-2, affording scum an opportunity to get a quick lynch if the vote is on town. Please don't place a vote on either of them, even if you feel confident, before we get a chance to hash this out.
Off to bed for real this time or pop back on to admit I got somewhere with thr angle shooting. Why do you feel the need to keep saying your off for a religious holiday , off to bed , but you are still spazzing and checking everything
I'm awake.
Im quite surprised that both Julian was legit the Jailor and no scum made a move for the claim.
I will confirm I was not jailed
Nearing hammer time and I have lunch with my mom in a bit for mothers day but I will try to wrap up my thoughts and see where I land. Without tracking the positions it feels like people are split between Caine and Random and everyone seems to suspect Brand.
Im fighting my confirmation bias to just say its exactly Random/Brand right now. Randoms ATE is something my lizard brain is chewing on because it felt like genuine "Fuck you guys I am town"
Caine still has the potential of a super deep wolf play eating a wolf for town cred but I have not really moved from town reading them tbh
Bleys seems good enough as a player that I will stay paranoid but unless I identify something that really pings me I doubt I will land there..
Its honestly not that bad of a thing that we did not end up having to deal with Jailor counter claims but a part of me woulda loved a hard 2v2 showdown for the entire game. Only seen that happen once before where wolves put all the chips on the table that hard.
A-Llewella wrote:
I can expand on that if you would like. I am of sober mind now : )
I'm more focused on the necessity of jailor/regent both being in the game to balance the setup than why they shouldn't claim.
A-Deirdre wrote:
Honestly, I'm thinking I'll sleep on it. Been a long enough day already. I don't think Caine vs. Random is a TvT situation. For reasons I won't say, I don't think it's mutual bussing, either, so it's likely only one of them is scum. We've got a little over 24 hours left to figure this out, and I'd rather have everyone chime in at this point.
Given that we already have two votes up, one for each of them, I ask that everyone else please recognize that an additional vote puts either of them at L-2, affording scum an opportunity to get a quick lynch if the vote is on town. Please don't place a vote on either of them, even if you feel confident, before we get a chance to hash this out.
I'm in the middle of finishing my DP2 read and I've got my comments in the works on another tab. I'm looking at Random/Caine being SvS as a real possibility. I think it's important to discuss why you don't believe it is a mutual bussing.
229 is very sus from Caine.
VTL: A-Oberon
If this is town and they really are blackmailed then Ramon is 100% clear. There is a 0% chance scum tries and lynches the person they blame mailed.
Gerard is major sus for protecting them
Emphasis on them saying that there's 0% chance Random tries to lynch their blackmail target while then saying this DP what they did in #212. Either there is no reason for scum to lynch the blackmail target, or there is. You can't flip flop when it's convenient.
273 and 276 from Brand are a good look. There is no reason to go out of their way to dismiss pressure off an easy mislynch slot in order to refocus on Fiona.
295 And this post from Random makes me think the Oberon push could be theater.
Actually thats wrong. Mafia would be motivated not to lynch Oberon.
Caine is prob a town lock and stupid
299 There is something about the casual assumption from Brand that Fiona is the lynch that strikes me as town. It's far too comfortable an energy to be coming from mafia. There's not even an effort to to build a case towards someone else to save Fiona. Nor is there an effort to build a case against Fiona to gain towncred when they flip scum.
497 I don't like this from Caine. It's a vague feeling, but it strikes me as digging for info for setting up gamestate via the NK after Fiona dies. Then in 502 and 504 he's already setting up the mislynch for next DP.
To conclude the DP, I don't like 550 and 552. If Fiona's jester, mafia wins after the NK. Caine already assumes the game continues, implying they know Fiona is scum and not jester.
A-Bleys wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
Honestly, I'm thinking I'll sleep on it. Been a long enough day already. I don't think Caine vs. Random is a TvT situation. For reasons I won't say, I don't think it's mutual bussing, either, so it's likely only one of them is scum. We've got a little over 24 hours left to figure this out, and I'd rather have everyone chime in at this point.
Given that we already have two votes up, one for each of them, I ask that everyone else please recognize that an additional vote puts either of them at L-2, affording scum an opportunity to get a quick lynch if the vote is on town. Please don't place a vote on either of them, even if you feel confident, before we get a chance to hash this out.
I'm in the middle of finishing my DP2 read and I've got my comments in the works on another tab. I'm looking at Random/Caine being SvS as a real possibility. I think it's important to discuss why you don't believe it is a mutual bussing.
1. I’m the easiest possible ML. If I bus random here then there is a near zero percent chance we win. Me killing random is more retarded than Fiona claiming messenger.
2. Read our ISOs and how we speak about each other and how we speak about Fiona. I am hard impaired with both.
3. I am also coming around to the team just being Random / Brand.
A-Random wrote:
Off to bed for real this time or pop back on to admit I got somewhere with thr angle shooting. Why do you feel the need to keep saying your off for a religious holiday , off to bed , but you are still spazzing and checking everything
This is such a despicable push. Shame on you you know my play better than this.
I'm still convinced it's Caine + Random. Caine + Llewella are completely disconnected imo. I think to a degree Random + Llewella are as well. To a smaller degree I think Brand + Llewella are unlikely, but that's the only realistic partner I see for Llewella. Between genuinely town reading them, and not seeing a viable partner, I'm fine openly discussing strategy with Llewella as if they are townlock.
Again I should emphasize that my entire town read on random d2 was predicate on my belief that he was the jailor. This was because of how Pie spoke about him in their will.
You don't get to decide who you are paired with, in my eyes, unfortunately. I see you being paired with both as real possibilities. Gerard even called out you being paired with Fiona in his will.
A-Caine wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
I guess it doesn't matter, though. If we mislynch this DP, then it's game over anyway. If we lynch correctly, there will be only one scum so jailing them would still be a red check.
Yeah This is why I think the jailor should out themselves.
I have a very strong jailor read on a particular player but don’t want to say who or why yet
I hinted to that in this post.
A-Bleys wrote:
You don't get to decide who you are paired with, in my eyes, unfortunately. I see you being paired with both as real possibilities. Gerard even called out you being paired with Fiona in his will.
If I was mafia I’d always kill random over Gerard via my jailor read on them.
A-Bleys wrote:
I'm more focused on the necessity of jailor/regent both being in the game to balance the setup than why they shouldn't claim.
Well the game is difficult to balance with the role list. Jailor absolutely felt necessary. My bet was Regent+Jailor+Coroner/1 shot super cop.
With the lack of a real invest I felt that self confirming roles existed. Jailor was the only protective and also covered kills. Regent is the crier and had self confirming ability as well as had the ability to coordinating the town from a confirmed town voice without revealing. Those two made a lot of sense.
