Hey, I'm sorry that I've been so absent. There is a reason I didn't sign up for this game initially. I started typing out reads last night, didn't finish and crashed. Skimming through what's happened, I'm more or less where I was before.
First of all, Deirdre is town. I don't think I need to justify that conclusion.
I think Llewella is likely town as well. Their explanation about how they softed being VT seems believable to me, and skimming through an ISO looking at their votes, they don't come off as being opportunistic at all. There's always a chance that I'm wrong and I can expand on this read if anyone wants me to, but other than Deirdre, Llewella is the one I'm most confident of being town.
That leaves just three players and three possible teams FMPOV. I think it might be more useful for me to consider teams here.
Bleys/Caine - Both of these players had behavior on D1 that I did not like; Bleys at the beginning and Caine at the end. Caine also had a focus on voting Bleys during DP2 that in retrospect may have been a distancing move. Bleys also ends by sussing Random, Caine, myself, and Llewella in that order, with the Random/Caine team being specifically floated earlier in . Seems like a plausible team to me, but the problem is that it'd be really risky for Bleys to throw so much shade on their own teammate, even if they said they preferred Random. They also made a couple of sharp, non-obvious observations about Caine that feel really unlikely and risky coming from Caine's partner.
Bleys/Random - See what I said at the end there; every reason I have to doubt a Bleys/Caine team is a reason to prefer a Bleys/Random team. The problem with a Bleys/Random team is that Random is still Bleys's most preferred lynch. I have a really hard time imagining scum Bleys bussing Random here when a mislynch on me or Caine would probably be easier and also win the game for scum. I think I can write off this team as being too unlikely, and I don't feel good about the first one I mentioned, either. That leaves me with...
Caine/Random - I know Deirdre said they don't quite buy that it's theater. I disagree. The arguing between them feels very overblown, and the sudden pivot from Random calling Caine a townlock during D2 to sussing him at the beginning of this day. Honestly, the whole thing with Caine suddenly voting Oberon, Random townreading him for it, then hard focusing on Oberon himself feels like a ploy one or both of them townread for reasons of "scum wouldn't vote for someone they blackmailed". But the wagon on Oberon never went anywhere and I don't think it was likely to in the first place, which makes this pretty weak. I think the scum team may have realized this, and decided to do a bussing ploy instead.
Honestly, the more I think about it, the harder I find it to believe in any pairing other than Random/Caine right now. Small chance of Caine/Bleys or that I've just been duped by a good scum performance from Llewella. But I feel pretty good about this solve tbh. I could vote either way here, lowkey tempted to vote Random first just for the disrespect they've shown for the rules.
